The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[filmlover]

M3GAN theater estimate is 3,400+ for next weekend according to The Numbers.

[Eric S'ennui]

23 hours ago, Eric in Boots said:

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	81	6237	1.30%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 0

 

Comp

0.255x of The Conjuring 3 T-8 (2.5M)

0.145x of Halloween Kills T-8 (705K)

0.168x of Scream T-8 (588K)

0.103x of Halloween Ends T-8 (559K)

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	86	6237	1.38%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 5

 

Comp

0.246x of The Conjuring 3 T-7 (2.41M)

0.140x Halloween Kills T-7 (679K)

0.171x of Scream T-7 (598K)

0.100x of Halloween Ends T-7 (542K)

[XXR vs XXR]

22 minutes ago, Eric in Boots said:

Comp

0.246x of The Conjuring 3 T-7 (2.41M)

0.140x Halloween Kills T-7 (679K)

0.171x of Scream T-7 (598K)

0.100x of Halloween Ends T-7 (542K)

 

So at some point these comps will converge but I'm guessing it's not at 2.4M (maybe it gets to 1.5M?)

I don't see how this thing is supposed to make 30M off of these numbers (and even 20M seems like a stretch).

[M37]

14 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

 

So at some point these comps will converge but I'm guessing it's not at 2.4M (maybe it gets to 1.5M?)

I don't see how this thing is supposed to make 30M off of these numbers (and even 20M seems like a stretch).

Gotta think that the holiday period is really not great for advance sales, with people more focused on securing tickets for films already playing during this busy week, plus out of their usual viewing routine and so less likely to be hit with advertising.  Won't be surprised with a Venom 2 or even Minions-esque - oh that movie is coming out now? - final week/few days, and an especially walk-up friendly preview day

 

From before times when pre-sales were lower, but this T-3 check in Philly eventually led to a $1.8M Thursday for Grudge on the same early January opening, from a 122-->542 +340% final day

 

 

 

 

[Legion Again]

FWIW been running about 2x Menu in harkins and I do expect that to increase in Jan.

[cookie]

I honestly think we could be in for a rude surprise with M3gan. Presales as Eric showed aren't great, and there are no reviews despite the movie being out in France and Mexico already, and the word from there doesn't seem great either. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go sub-20.

Edited December 30, 2022 by cookie

[ThatWaluigiDude]

5 hours ago, cookie said:

I honestly think we could be in for a rude surprise with M3gan. Presales as Eric showed aren't great, and there are no reviews despite the movie being out in France and Mexico already, and the word from there doesn't seem great either. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go sub-20.

Yeah I'm with you there. I know the trailer went viral and all, but for me that is kinda all we have. I haven't seen much to justify a big opening though I would love to be wrong.

 

For the record, I think Knock at the Cabin is where things could get really interesting as for early 2023 thrillers, but then again, I could be wrong.

[filmlover]

7 hours ago, cookie said:

I honestly think we could be in for a rude surprise with M3gan. Presales as Eric showed aren't great, and there are no reviews despite the movie being out in France and Mexico already, and the word from there doesn't seem great either. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go sub-20.

I mean, memes aside (which have never been reliable when it comes to selling tickets), does anyone really think this actually looks good? The history of early January horrors/thrillers isn't great to begin with (to put it nicely). The question is whether it can grab the walkup demo that usually powers such movies.

[Verrows]

37 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I mean, memes aside (which have never been reliable when it comes to selling tickets), does anyone really think this actually looks good? The history of early January horrors/thrillers isn't great to begin with (to put it nicely). The question is whether it can grab the walkup demo that usually powers such movies.

I think it looks fun which is the key here. Looks like the kind of horror movie that combines concept, scary moments and a little bit of comedy for a crowd pleasing experience.

[Deep Wang]

32 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I mean, memes aside (which have never been reliable when it comes to selling tickets), does anyone really think this actually looks good? The history of early January horrors/thrillers isn't great to begin with (to put it nicely). The question is whether it can grab the walkup demo that usually powers such movies.

 

What does "good" even mean though?   Good as in rich characters and themes that make you think or I had a good time watching the girl robot dance and murder people?

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

What does "good" even mean though?   Good as in rich characters and themes that make you think or I had a good time watching the girl robot dance and murder people?

Given that it's PG-13, I doubt they show much (if anything) in the way of her murdering people ala Chucky in the Child's Play movies.

[Deep Wang]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Given that it's PG-13, I doubt they show much (if anything) in the way of her murdering people ala Chucky in the Child's Play movies.

 

I didn't say they would be grisly and gruesome lol.  The Happy Death Day movies are PG13 and lots of folks died and audiences seemed to like them. 

[filmlover]

Just now, Deep Wang said:

 

I didn't say they would be grisly and gruesome lol.  The Happy Death Day movies are PG13 and lots of folks died and audiences seemed to like them. 

Oh sure, PG-13 isn't always the creative kiss of death for a horror movie.

 

I think the movie looks like silly fun, but wouldn't be surprised if it's a dud given that the studio planted it on the first-weekend-of-the-year spot that's produced many a crummy, quickly forgotten scary flick.

[M37]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Oh sure, PG-13 isn't always the creative kiss of death for a horror movie.

 

I think the movie looks like silly fun, but wouldn't be surprised if it's a dud given that the studio planted it on the first-weekend-of-the-year spot that's produced many a crummy, quickly forgotten scary flick.

First week of January is usually where studios like to drop a horror movie they expect to be not well received: grab as much cash as you can in inflated holiday period from bored teens before WOM sinks in 

 

With that said, horror audiences have been more … selective in their OW rush of late, with likes of Smile and Barbarian having softer openings but very good legs. I’m expecting an opening in Smile range but with big drops after 

[Boxofficerules]

8 hours ago, cookie said:

 there are no reviews despite the movie being out in France and Mexico already, and the word from there doesn't seem great either.

I haven’t heard anything.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 12/23/2022 at 8:42 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Avatar 2	3,528	99,541	-38.07%	49,827	692.20	49,714	3,486	44,744
Puss in Boots 3-Day	3,434	71,525		68,116		3,409	0	3,297
Puss in Boots 5-Day	3,434	117,093		111,466		5,627	0	5,433
I Wanna Dance	3,156	49,709		49,643		66	0	0
Babylon	3,029	44,741		44,681		60	0	0
Violent Night	2,293	24,258	-39.50%	24,237	126.07	21	0	0
Black Panther 2	1,926	12,663	-64.64%	12,463	149.30	200	0	178
The Whale	547	7,602		7,588		14	0	0
The Fabelmans	1,021	7,356	-24.96%	7,344	75.87	12	0	0
Strange World	1,065	6,700	-78.13%	6,674	72.15	26	0	12
Cirkus	496	4,297		4,297		0	0	0
The Menu	672	3,832	-78.79%	3,832	90.12	0	0	0
18 Pages	336	2,376		2,376		0	0	0
Empire of Light	314	1,497	-70.53%	1,497	44.00	0	0	0
Devotion	318	1,370	-88.98%	1,370	62.76	0	0	0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 12/23 Weekend

OW Showtimes Comps

Puss in Boots (3-day) - 71,525 (3,434 TC)

 - Sing 2 - 55,966 (3,331)

 - The Bad Guys - 67,681 (3,297)

 - Strange World - 71,743 (3,406)

Puss in Boots (5-day) - 117,093 (3,434)

 - Sing 2 - 91,663 (3,331)

 - Strange World - 105,995 (3,347)

I Wanna Dance With Somebody - 49,709 (3,156 TC)

 - Marry Me - 53,179 (3,172)

 - Devotion - 49,384 (2,483)

 - Easter Sunday - 49,821 (2,846)

Babylon - 44,741 (3,029 TC)

 - Bones and All - 45,531 (2,384)

 - The Menu - 45,234 (2,830)

 - Bros - 46,647 (2,995)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

M3gan - 4,412 (1,837 TC)

 - Black Phone - 4,684 (1,873)

 - Scream - 4,141 (1,945)

A Man Called Otto - 1,066 (346 TC)

 - I Heard the Bells - 1,097 (976)

 - The Case for Heaven - 1,013 (954)

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Avatar 2	3,458	107,760	8.26%	57,296	636.30	50,464	2,365	46,657
Puss in Boots 2	3,408	74,596	4.29%	72,074	173.78	2,522	0	2,391
I Wanna Dance	3,113	41,255	0.28%	41,204	95.86	51	0	0
Babylon	2,996	35,674	-6.39%	35,630	80.54	44	0	0
Violent Night	2,251	25,760	6.19%	25,748	144.84	12	0	0
Black Panther 2	1,996	21,570	70.34%	21,481	275.81	89	0	50
The Fabelmans	1,032	8,346	13.46%	8,334	101.31	12	0	0
The Whale	570	7,689	1.14%	7,676	132.70	13	0	0
Strange World	933	5,854	-12.63%	5,834	61.68	20	0	8
The Menu	699	5,220	36.22%	5,220	177.00	0	0	0
Devotion	312	1,722	25.69%	1,722	131.39	0	0	0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 12/30 Weekend

 

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

M3gan - 29,092 (2,210 TC)

 - Black Phone - 30,912 (2,156)

 - Smile - 27,557 (2,196)

 - Violent Night - 29,124 (2,108)

 - Crawdads - 29,677 (2,121)

A Man Called Otto - 5,379 (394 TC)

 - Spoiler Alert - 5,097 (403)

 - Licorice Pizza - 5,632 (607)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

A Man Called Otto - 3,582 (1,324 TC)

 - Babylon - 3,851 (1,769)

 - Marry Me - 3,771 (1,845)

 - The Menu - 3,316 (1,418)

 

T-3 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime The Movie: Scarlet Bond - 2,335 (1,063 TC)

 - Crawdads - 2,901 (971)

 - The Bad Guys - 2,295 (876)

Missing - 907 (422 TC)

 - Beast - 872 (249)

 - The 355 - 1,082 (690)

 

T-4 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Left Behind: Rise of the Antichrist - 1,152 (1,142 TC)

 - Lost City - 1,250 (482)

 - I Heard the Bells - 908 (862)

 

T-5 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Knock at the Cabin - 3,573 (1,506 TC)

 - Nope - 7,656 (1,929)

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Black Panther 2 1,996 21,570 70.34% 21,481

Damn. That’s a hell of an increase.

[Legion Again]

Yeee baby

 

Edit: It has been doing well and there are plenty of screen to give back in this market at this point.

Edited December 30, 2022 by Legion in Boots

[Eric S'ennui]

37 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime The Movie: Scarlet Bond

...excuse me?

[CJohn]

42 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime The Movie: Scarlet Bond 

 

Holy shit this anime is sus as HELL. 

 

I see a channel of people opening TCG cards (its mostly focused on Pokemon cards but the guy also sells cards of other TCGs) and this one always have some big ass tits. 

 

Next bring on a "Is It Wrong to Try to Pick Up Girls in a Dungeon?" movie. That one is the ultimate SUS anime.