The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[M37]

12 minutes ago, datpepper said:

 

Thanks for the rundown! I'll then have to assume Sony made a switch-in-plan somewhere, it seems odd for all of those pre-existing circumstances to be in place only for a super-saturated wide release to occur regardless. Obviously theaters get added on week-of all the time, but the mystery movie thing and the theater listings for the 27th were what threw me off.

Often with exclusive advance/early screenings, the MTC is only allotted a set number of locations (auditorium capacity can also be capped too). The “mystery” element may have added another layer where Sony was being even more heavy-handed with placement then even a 200-500 location EA show

[keysersoze123]

Plane

MTC1 Previews - 14623/87033 203773.93 753 shows

MTC1 Early shows(Wednesday) - 3377/9004 49336.61 101 shows

 

I am not sure how widespread were the early shows(investor connect). I did not find any at MTC2. Thinking about 750k-800K for jus Thursday plus whatever it did yesterday. 900K-1m would be the range. Walkups today were just ok. I guess limited shows is hindering it for sure. 

[DAJK]

Plane is just an ok movie. Walkups weren’t awful for it, but I can’t see it having stellar WOM that really propels it. 700k just Thursday previews (850 including sneaks) and 9M for the 4-day seems about right.

 

I loved Otto, and so did the (heavily walkup) crowd I saw it with. Over 75% of tickets for my screening were bought within 30 minutes of start time. Wouldn’t be surprised with 15M 4-day.

[Brainbug]

4 hours ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

 

 

Just keep in mind these are 4-day numbers. 

 

Thanks, i overlooked that, so id actually hope for even better numbers than that.

[Alex SciChannel]

BOP LONG RANGE FORECAST

 

 

Edited January 13, 2023 by Alex SciChannel

[Cooper Legion]

21 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

BOP LONG RANGE FORECAST

 

 

Bold new predictions @Shawn  

Also given some of the other stuff currently listed, might as well put Chosen season 3 finale on the 3rd? Good chance to top 3 the weekend probably top 5 at worst.

Edited January 13, 2023 by Legion in Boots

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Knock at Cabin	T-21	Jax	5	14	0	15	2,251	0.67%
		Phx	4	10	0	14	1,554	0.90%
		Ral	5	14	0	21	2,228	0.94%
	Total		14	38	0	50	6,033	0.83%
Left Behind	T-14	Jax	4	4	0	22	453	4.86%
		Phx	5	5	4	24	830	2.89%
		Ral	5	5	0	35	530	6.60%
	Total		14	14	4	81	1,813	4.47%
Missing	T-7	Jax	5	19	1	12	1,590	0.75%
		Phx	4	9	0	9	1,687	0.53%
		Ral	3	7	1	3	739	0.41%
	Total		12	35	2	24	4,016	0.60%
Slime	T-7	Jax	5	11	1	23	1,092	2.11%
		Phx	4	6	3	17	892	1.91%
		Ral	6	11	5	20	1,593	1.26%
	Total		15	28	9	60	3,577	1.68%

 

Missing T-7 comps

 - Crawdads - .103x (207k)

 - Bullet Train - .089x (297k)

 - Lost City - .12x (300k)

 

Slime T-7 comps

 - JJK - missed

 - DBZ - .069x (295k)

 - One Piece - .122x (208k)

 

Left Behind T-14 comps

 - I Heard the Bells - .238x (183k)

 

Knock at the Cabin T-21 comps

 - Nope - .211x (1.35m)

 - M3GAN - 1.852x (5.09m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Knock at Cabin	T-20	Jax	5	16	0	15	2,739	0.55%
		Phx	4	10	0	14	1,554	0.90%
		Ral	5	14	1	22	2,228	0.99%
	Total		14	40	1	51	6,521	0.78%
Left Behind	T-13	Jax	4	4	2	24	453	5.30%
		Phx	5	5	0	24	830	2.89%
		Ral	5	5	6	41	530	7.74%
	Total		14	14	8	89	1,813	4.91%
Missing	T-6	Jax	5	19	0	12	1,590	0.75%
		Phx	4	9	4	13	1,687	0.77%
		Ral	3	7	1	4	739	0.54%
	Total		12	35	5	29	4,016	0.72%
Slime	T-6	Jax	5	11	0	23	1,092	2.11%
		Phx	4	6	0	17	892	1.91%
		Ral	6	11	1	21	1,593	1.32%
	Total		15	28	1	61	3,577	1.71%

 

Missing T-6 comps

 - Crawdads - .109x (218k)

 - Bullet Train - .091x (305k)

 - Lost City - .143x (357k)

 

Slime T-6 comps

 - JJK - missed

 - DBZ - .064x (276k)

 - One Piece - .121x (204k)

 

Left Behind T-13 comps

 - I Heard the Bells - .264x (204k)

 

Knock at the Cabin T-20 comps

 - Nope - .21x (1.34m)

 - M3GAN - 1.821x (5.01m)

[filmlover]

$45-50M total for Magic Mike 3 sounds about right. Given it was likely very cheap to make like the previous movies were it's locked to make a profit.

[Shawn Robbins]

11 hours ago, datpepper said:

 

Any word on if this is accurate? Maybe it's just me, but from a look around, this really doesn't look like a 3k+ theater opener at all. From what I recall, Sony required Regal to limit the mystery movie showing of this to specific markets because of how Sony didn't plan to open it this wide on opening weekend. There's even locations that don't seem to be getting it until the 27th, in fact.

 

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Maybe there was a dramatic shift in the release strategy. Just seems off to me.

Yep, confirmed.

[Cooper Legion]

2 hours ago, Legion in Boots said:

Bold new predictions @Shawn  

Also given some of the other stuff currently listed, might as well put Chosen season 3 finale on the 3rd? Good chance to top 3 the weekend probably top 5 at worst.

 

5 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Yep, confirmed.

Btw in case the cheekiness was too subtle, currently looks like this which I assume is unintentional 😛 

[Shawn Robbins]

2 hours ago, Legion in Boots said:

Bold new predictions @Shawn  

Also given some of the other stuff currently listed, might as well put Chosen season 3 finale on the 3rd? Good chance to top 3 the weekend probably top 5 at worst.

Yep, it'll likely be on next week's report. Fathom didn't issue the announcement in time for this week.

[Shawn Robbins]

12 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

 

Btw in case the cheekiness was too subtle, currently looks like this which I assume is unintentional 😛 

What's unintentional?

 

Edit: Never mind... It's early and I need caffeine. 🤪

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, Shawn said:

What's unintentional?

The new predictions are bold (and large font, if I were to wager — or maybe large and not bold? In any case the typography is different from the standard)

[stuart360]

No one tracking 'Plane', it looks like a fun movie that could surprise poeple.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 1/6/2023 at 9:31 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Avatar 2	3,521	87,498	-18.80%	45,915	625.55	41,583	3,105	37,431
M3GAN	3,124	74,441		72,410		2,031	0	0
Puss in Boots 2	3,292	56,134	-24.75%	55,048	225.42	1,086	0	986
I Wanna Dance	2,673	27,337	-33.74%	27,301	95.29	36	0	0
Black Panther 2	2,040	19,832	-8.06%	19,773	238.56	59	0	41
Babylon	2,158	15,569	-56.36%	15,551	73.20	18	0	0
Violent Night	1,778	14,947	-41.98%	14,928	82.08	19	0	0
A Man Called Otto	560	8,890		8,878		12	0	0
The Whale	739	8,824	14.76%	8,812	178.47	12	0	0
The Fabelmans	912	6,786	-18.69%	6,779	124.27	7	0	0
The Old Way	503	6,172		6,154		18	0	0
The Menu	638	5,097	-2.36%	5,097	210.74	0	0	0
Strange World	328	2,082	-64.43%	2,080	85.66	2	0	2

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 1/6 Weekend

 

OW Showtimes Comps

M3gan - 74,441 (3,124 TC)

 - Candyman - 74,146 (3,113)

 - Violent Night - 68,420 (3,171)

 - Elvis - 75,093 (3,377)

A Man Called Otto - 8,890 (560 TC)

 - Belfast - 7,577 (516)

 - Summer of Soul - 7,766 (696)

The Old Way - 6,172 (503 TC)

 - The Gray Man - 6,113 (410)

 - The Contractor - 6,356 (478)

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

Plane (1/11 EA) - 304 (304 TC)

Plane - 18,804 (1,527 TC)

 - Antlers - 17,679 (1,504)

 - King Richard - 18,783 (1,835)

 - Many Saints - 18,302 (1,823)

A Man Called Otto - 14,288 (1,376 TC)

 - Father Stu - 14,226 (1,388)

 - Redeeming Love - 13,519 (1,317)

 - Memory - 14,955 (1,210)

House Party - 8,468 (580 TC)

 - Spencer - 8,816 (714)

 - Family Camp - 8,851 (622)

 - Mrs. Harris - 7,844 (572)

The Devil Conspiracy - 7,198 (554 TC)

 - Courageous Legacy - 6,789 (648)

 - Breaking - 6,778 (515)

 - Glass Onion - 7,407 (617)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime The Movie: Scarlet Bond - 2,385 (1,085 TC)

 - Resident Evil - 2,532 (936)

 - Beast - 2,330 (845)

Missing - 2,800 (1,182 TC)

 - Firestarter - 2,811 (1,150)

 - JJK - 2,855 (1,454)

 

T-3 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Left Behind: Rise of the Antichrist - 1,214 (1,203 TC)

 - Family Camp - 1,472 (509)

 - Redeeming Love - 1,403 (1,033)

 

T-4 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Knock at the Cabin - 3,948 (1,668 TC)

 - M3GAN - 3,770 (1,545)

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Avatar 2	3,317	66,031	-24.53%	33,096	523.89	32,935	3,093	28,604
M3GAN	3,142	55,655	-15.21%	54,977	408.78	678	0	0
A Man Called Otto	3,181	46,965	428.29%	46,874	472.71	91	0	0
Puss in Boots 2	3,150	43,232	-22.98%	42,750	241.23	482	0	404
Plane	2,692	39,949		38,431		1,518	0	0
House Party	1,323	22,290		22,146		144	0	0
The Whale	1,347	14,851	68.30%	14,828	174.66	23	0	0
Black Panther 2	1,716	14,611	-26.33%	14,575	177.67	36	0	25
The Devil Conspiracy	917	12,610		12,610		0	0	0
I Wanna Dance	1,720	11,571	-57.67%	11,563	88.37	8	0	0
Skinamarink	664	3,715		3,709		6	0	0
The Fabelmans	669	3,468	-48.89%	3,459	86.96	9	0	0
The Woman King	794	3,280		3,280		0	0	0
Babylon	591	2,982	-80.85%	2,976	91.16	6	0	0
Thunivu	368	2,507		2,507		0	0	0
Waltair Veerayya	334	2,296		2,251		45	0	0
Veera Simha Reddy	321	2,099		2,096		3	0	0
Strange World	419	1,953	-6.20%	1,950	102.94	3	0	3
Violent Night	307	1,828	-87.77%	1,828	47.29	0	0	0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 1/13 Weekend

 

OW Showtimes Comps

Plane (1/11 EA) - 304 (304 TC)

Plane - 39,949 (2,692 TC)

 - CopShop - 37,892 (2,641)

 - King Richard - 38,074 (2,890)

 - Matrix 4 - 38,807 (3,054)

 - The Northman - 40,906 (2,890)

A Man Called Otto - 46,965 (3,181 TC)

 - Dog - 48,752 (3,099)

 - Bones and All - 45,531 (2,384)

 - Bros - 46,647 (2,995)

House Party - 22,290 (1,323 TC)

 - She Said - 21,138 (1,813)

 - Mack and Rita - 24,728 (1,686)

 - Infinite Storm - 19,579 (1,481)

The Devil Conspiracy - 12,610 (917 TC)

 - Armageddon Time - 12,340 (945)

 - Breaking - 12,196 (891)

 - Wolf and the Lamb - 12,069 (938)

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

Missing - 20,308 (1,615 TC)

 - Plane - 18,804 (1,527)

 - Blacklight - 19,740 (1,627)

 - The Invitation - 21,624 (1,619)

That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime The Movie: Scarlet Bond - 13,804 (1,302 TC)

 - Studio 666 - 13,939 (1,254)

 - Bodies Bodies Bodies - 13,255 (917)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Left Behind: Rise of the Antichrist - 1,256 (1,245 TC)

 - Ambulance - 1,183 (671)

 - I Heard the Bells - 976 (1,097)

Infinity Pool - 1,046 (727 TC)

 - Antlers - 1,045 (644)

 - Otto - 1,066 (346)

 - Nightmare Alley - 980 (567)

Fear - 831 (453 TC)

 - Vengeance - 838 (455)

 - Bodies Bodies Bodies - 881 (495)

 - Terrifier 2 - 847 (658)

 

T-3 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

80 for Brady (1/28) - 222 (221)

80 for Brady (1/31) - 402 (399)

80 for Brady (2/1) - 404 (404)

80 for Brady - 3,779 (1,353 TC)

 - M3GAN - 3,980 (1,646)

 - Scream - 3,888 (1,802)

Knock at the Cabin - 4,231 (1,812 TC)

 - Black Phone - 4,270 (1,705)

 - Elvis - 4,418 (1,813)

[Shawn Robbins]

Plane 625k

[M37]

3 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Plane 625k

Is that just Thursday or including the limited EA shows?

[Tinalera]

Sorry if this appears as a notification that I reacted to a post-kind of buggered on my end and quoted had to delete quote

 

Nice to see M3GAN getting some attention as what looks like a quiet better than expected. People are seeming to dig the humor/light horror and are saying yes to it. I do wonder if that little dance sequence in the trailer may have been the difference between it getting seen or not-it certainly got people talking!

[Shawn Robbins]

56 minutes ago, M37 said:

Is that just Thursday or including the limited EA shows?

Seems to be, but waiting to hear on confirmation from the studio.

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

A Man Called Otto T-1: 41.18% Awareness, 5.6 Interest

Alice Darling T-8: 18.17%, 5.01

80 for Brady T-22: 23.09%, 4.72

Magic Mike's Last Dance T-29: 32.73%, 5.16

Renfield T-85: 18.55%, 5.16

Beau is Afraid T-99: 10.84%, 4.48

 

House Party T-1: 38.66% Awareness, 5.71 Interest

Final Awareness: 39% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 74% chance of 10M

Known IP Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Known IP Interest: 100% chance of 10M

 

Plane T-2: 29.8% Awareness, 5.6 Interest

Final Awareness: 7% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 74% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 33% chance of 5M, 0% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 80% chance of 5M, 40% chance of 10M

 

Missing T-8: 23.57% Awareness, 5.65 Interest

Final Awareness: 7% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 74% chance of 10M

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania T-36: 38.01% Awareness, 5.77 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 13% chance of 70M

T-30 Interest: 20% chance of 70M, 15% chance of 90M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 70M

DC/MCU Interest: 67% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 90M