The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[M37]

Think maybe few people in Tampa may have seen the ad during the football game? 😂 (Thursday Dolby at busiest location)

 

 

[M37]

14 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

is antman taking 100% of imaxes?

Yes, they have the exclusive for 2 weeks until Creed III on Thur 3/2

[Borobudur]

17 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

is antman taking 100% of imaxes?

I doubt they will split with other movies, it is a $100m new opener after all.

[DAJK]

33 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

not sure if this is the right place to ask, but seems like the best one

 

im finally getting an imax relatively close by, but it looks like ticket prices are gonna be mad expensive so no way I make it my standard format

 

does a site that "reviews" movies on "imax" and tells us which movies are worth watching in that format exist?

 

thanks

Not that I know of, I know there used to be a site that rated whether a film was worth seeing in 3D or not (but I think that died a few years ago when people stopped going to 3D in general lol). If anyone else knows of one though, I'd kind of like to check it out too.

[katnisscinnaplex]

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ant-Man 3	T-31	Jax	6	91	297	297	15,860	1.87%
		Phx	6	85	278	278	15,027	1.85%
		Ral	5	69	207	207	9,525	2.17%
	Total		17	245	782	782	40,412	1.94%

It's only been two hours, but here are comps against first 24 hours

 

NWH - .05x (2.5m)

Black Widow - 1.456x (19.22m)

Dr Strange 2 - .13x (4.69m)

Thor 4 - .23x (6.72m)

Eternals - 1.02x (9.74m)

BP2 - .322x (9.025m)

 

Excellent start!

Edited January 17, 2023 by katnisscinnaplex
Add BP2

[poweranimals]

32 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

is antman taking 100% of imaxes?

I don't see why it wouldn't be.

Edited January 17, 2023 by poweranimals

[interiorgatordecorator]

23 minutes ago, M37 said:

Yes, they have the exclusive for 2 weeks until Creed III on Thur 3/2

 

rip

how exclusive is the 2nd week supposed to be?

[M37]

4 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

rip

how exclusive is the 2nd week supposed to be?

For a release like this, it’s pretty firm. With that said, if Disney wanted to split with Avatwo, they probably could. But we’re taking like $100M vs $10 on the weekend before, so doubt they do, but maybe they try squeeze in a rerelease week later, prob late April before GOTG2, even if sharing with something else 

[GOGODanca]

Will a2 get to keep some real 3d screens? 

[Porthos]

Just got done setting up my sheets.  Because they were coming right in the heart of Drive Time/Prime Time as sales started locally, there's no real point to comparing on my initial set ups done in the morning after a couple of hours start.  But for the historical record:

 

AM3 8:15pm:               1317/32365 (4.07% sold). 228 showtimes

----

BP2 2:15pm:                2197/33919 [6.48% sold]

NWH 2am:                   6515/20399 [31.94% sold]

NWH 2pm:                  10685/24528 [43.53% sold]

Batman 12:45 pm:      1693/32197 [5.26% sold]

MoM 1:00 pm:              5030/39515 [12.73% sold]

L&T 12:15pm:              2519/31603 [7.97% sold]

 

No real pattern observations due to catching this just as tickets went underway but taking long enough that by the time I reached later theaters, tickets had been on sale for a while. 

 

I think I will go ahead and do a count in a few hours and then decide whether or not to comp it against other Day 1s.  Since it did start at 5pm locally, I'm inclined to do so, but with a giant asterisk mark on it given it is about a half day's worth of sales versus a complete day's worth of sales.

 

Should normalize fairly quickly either way.

Edited January 17, 2023 by Porthos

[Cooper Legion]

Already spectacular in Sacto. A2 will be one of the better comps though (atm I mostly suggest people use geomean of A2 and BP2 but we’ll see how big the start ends up), did you do a few hour check for that one @Porthos?

[Verrows]

Seems like (admittedly, VERY) early indications are people are indeed aware this Ant-Man movie means something more. That Quorum data was weird.

 

I've had a feeling about this one for awhile now.

[Factcheck]

20 minutes ago, Verrows said:

Seems like (admittedly, VERY) early indications are people are indeed aware this Ant-Man movie means something more. That Quorum data was weird.

 

I've had a feeling about this one for awhile now.

I think Quorum data tracks both GA and active/hardcore fans, so we should wait a few days to know where this tracking goes. I'm expecting 105-115M 3 day weekend for now.

[Eric Prime]

Missing Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	91	4712	1.93%

 

Comp

0.968x of Escape Room 2 T-3 (1.16M)

0.674x of Old T-3 (1.01M)

0.752x of Don't Breathe 2 T-3 (726K)

0.385x of Candyman T-3 (733K)

0.450x of Last Night in Soho T-3 (315K)

1.230x of X T-3 (541K)

0.245x of The Black Phone T-3 (734K)

0.096x of Nope T-3 (616K)

0.842x of Beast T-3 (779K)

1.625x of The Invitation T-3 (1.26M)

0.299x of The Woman King T-3 (509K)

[Porthos]

49 minutes ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Already spectacular in Sacto. A2 will be one of the better comps though (atm I mostly suggest people use geomean of A2 and BP2 but we’ll see how big the start ends up), did you do a few hour check for that one @Porthos?

 

You mean A2?  Not officially, I don't think.  As I check my records, it was missing a few theaters but at noon-ish it was at  556/18337 and at 6-ish it was at 836/19790 before settling in at 1320/20620.

 

FWIW, I am toying with adding Top Gun: Maverick [19.26m] for a few days given how nutty it performed locally (thus its sales pattern is far more top heavy locally than in other cities).  Not so much as a comp, but for average/geomean purposes.

 

Already have it on my comp block on my home sheet and will decide when I actually do my count whether or not to post it here.

Edited January 17, 2023 by Porthos

[Cooper Legion]

Bat and TGM look to be in the right final ballpark, and TGM should have a closer final/D1. What I dislike about both is the EA -- not intractable, but a hassle

[Eric Prime]

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-31 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	162	1705	31384	5.43%

 

Comp - First Day of Sales

2.092x of Black Widow (27.61M)

3.343x of Shang-Chi (29.42M)

2.240x of Eternals (21.28M)

0.151x of Spider-Man: No Way Home (7.57M)

0.473x of The Batman (10.21M)

0.277x of Doctor Strange 2 (9.96M)

0.462x of Thor: Love and Thunder (13.4M)

0.488x of Black Panther 2 (13.66M)

1.901x of Avatar 2 (32.31M)

 

Comp - T-31

0.355x of Black Panther 2 (9.94M)

[Eric Prime]

50 minutes ago, Verrows said:

Seems like (admittedly, VERY) early indications are people are indeed aware this Ant-Man movie means something more. That Quorum data was weird.

 

I've had a feeling about this one for awhile now.

Quorum's not really all that atypical. Simply put, Marvel nerds are so powerful and so dedicated that even with lower awareness, these movies still do better than most. By comparison, Shang-Chi and Eternals were both in the 30s in awareness a month before release, while No Time to Die and Ghostbusters: Afterlife were in the 40s a month before release. And look which movies opened higher. Even if we're going into interest, a month before release, NTTD was only a tenth below Eternals and four tenths above Shang-Chi. Ghostbusters was at a whopping 5.91! But Marvel nerds gonna be Marvel nerds.

 

No joke, Disney could put out a movie that's nothing but a jar of mayonaisse in a fridge for two hours, and so long as they put the Marvel Studios logo on the poster, Marvel nerds will watch it like robots. It's almost kind of scary.

[Verrows]

4 minutes ago, Eric is Missing said:

Quorum's not really all that atypical. Simply put, Marvel nerds are so powerful and so dedicated that even with lower awareness, these movies still do better than most. By comparison, Shang-Chi and Eternals were both in the 30s in awareness a month before release, while No Time to Die and Ghostbusters: Afterlife were in the 40s a month before release. And look which movies opened higher. Even if we're going into interest, a month before release, NTTD was only a tenth below Eternals and four tenths above Shang-Chi. Ghostbusters was at a whopping 5.91! But Marvel nerds gonna be Marvel nerds.

 

No joke, Disney could put out a movie that's nothing but a jar of mayonaisse in a fridge for two hours, and so long as they put the Marvel Studios logo on the poster, Marvel nerds will watch it like robots. It's almost kind of scary.

Yeah that makes a lot of sense. I hope though that these early sales foreshadow a healthy GA interest once we get to the week leading up to release. Even among the Marvel nerds Ant-Man is the smallest attraction so the numbers so far tell a promising tale.

 

I realize I'm just being hopeful though. Can't tell much either way this far out.

[DAJK]

Not sure I'm on the 100M train fully, but today certainly pushed me closer to boarding. Sales are STRONG, and the only hesitation I have is that Marvel has sort of become notoriously frontloaded post-Endgame, and so I'm wary about applying even recent CBM and MCU comps to sales. That being said, these sales would certainly look like we're in for a 100-120M opener, as long as we don't get Eternals-level reception.