The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[charlie Jatinder]

Lets try Pathaan #3. 

[Eric Prime]

On 1/26/2023 at 12:10 AM, Eric Slay said:

Knock at the Cabin Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	34	150	6481	2.31%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 3

 

Comp - T-8

1.852x of M3GAN (5.09M)

Knock at the Cabin Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	34	159	6481	2.45%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 9

 

Comp - T-7

1.849x of M3GAN (5.08M)

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Eric Slay said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-22 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	162	3507	31384	11.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 65

 

Comp - T-22

2.605x of Black Widow (34.39M)

3.503x of Eternals (33.28M)

0.422x of Doctor Strange 2 (15.18M)

0.831x of Thor 4 (24.11M)

0.600x of Black Panther 2 (16.8M)

2.896x of Avatar 2 (49.23M)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	162	3609	31384	11.50%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 102

 

Comp - T-21

2.549x of Black Widow (33.64M)

3.299x of Eternals (31.34M)

1.001x of The Batman (21.62M)

0.423x of Doctor Strange 2 (15.23M)

0.820x of Thor 4 (23.79M)

0.600x of Black Panther 2 (16.8M)

2.768x of Avatar 2 (47.05M)

[M37]

5 hours ago, Eric Slay said:

Love?

[Porthos]

On 1/26/2023 at 12:19 AM, Porthos said:

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-22 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	235	28592	32556	3964	12.18%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

119

 

T-22 Comps

	%		Sold T-22	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	44.31		168	8947		0/329	31963/40910	21.87%		21117	18.77%		15.95m
L&T	78.34		336	5060		0/228	26540/31600	16.01%		16962	23.37%		22.72m
BP2	66.64		138	5948		1/294	31071/37019	16.07%		16800	23.60%		18.66m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     765/12953  [5.91% sold]
Matinee:    115/3317  [3.47% | 2.90% of all tickets sold]
3D:          444/6479  [6.85% | 11.20% of all tickets sold]

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-21 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	235	28488	32556	4068	12.50%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

104

 

T-21 Comps

	%		Sold T-21	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	44.54		187	9134		0/329	31774/40908	22.33%		21117	19.26%		16.03m
L&T	76.89		231	5291		0/228	26309/31600	16.74%		16962	23.98%		22.30m
BP2	66.71		150	6098		1/294	30924/37022	16.47%		16800	24.21%		18.68m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     790/12953  [6.10% sold]
Matinee:    117/3317  [3.53% | 2.88% of all tickets sold]
3D:           457/6479  [7.05% | 11.23% of all tickets sold]

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 1/20/2023 at 10:44 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Avatar 2	3,080	56,500	-14.43%	27,112	497.11	29,388	2,971	24,992
M3GAN	3,017	45,100	-18.97%	44,498	328.92	602	0	0
Missing	2,597	44,142		42,656		1,486	0	0
Puss in Boots 2	3,024	40,494	-6.33%	40,094	334.63	400	0	302
A Man Called Otto	3,055	37,322	-7.06%	37,240	273.16	82	0	0
Plane	2,631	31,874	-10.85%	31,687	256.96	187	0	0
Slime The Movie	1,422	16,344		16,291		53	0	0
House Party	1,314	16,329	-15.73%	16,317	178.82	12	0	0
The Whale	1,384	11,549	-22.23%	11,532	97.64	17	0	0
Black Panther 2	1,380	10,650	-27.11%	10,627	168.73	23	0	23
The Fabelmans	850	5,156	48.67%	5,139	156.86	17	0	0
The Son	477	5,138		5,138		0	0	0
I Wanna Dance	971	5,103	-55.90%	5,103	100.59	0	0	0
Skinamarink	784	4,509	33.52%	4,509	220.44	0	0	0
Saving the World	400	2,650		2,646		4	0	0
The Devil Conspiracy	443	2,455	-77.03%	2,455	34.87	0	0	0
Smallfoot	362	1,297		1,297		0	0	0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 1/13 Weekend

 

OW Showtimes Comps

Missing - 44,142 (2,597 TC)

 - Don't Breathe 2 - 43,638 (2,644)

 - Bones and All - 45,531 (2,384)

 - The Invitation - 43,127 (2,655)

That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime The Movie: Scarlet Bond - 16,344 (1,422 TC)

 - Zola - 16,722 (1,379)

 - Belle - 16,995 (1,313)

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

Left Behind: Rise of the Antichrist - 5,344 (1,331 TC)

 - Lifemark - 6,046 (1,457)

 - I Heard the Bells - 4,407 (1,028)

Infinity Pool - 10,787 (932 TC)

 - The Cursed - 11,540 (959)

 - Till - 10,366 (932)

 - Infinite Storm - 10,576 (867)

Fear - 6,439 (542 TC)

 - Breaking - 6,778 (515)

 - Umma - 6,971 (506)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

80 for Brady (1/28) - 267 (267)

80 for Brady (1/31) - 526 (526)

80 for Brady (2/1) - 531 (531)

80 for Brady - 5,327 (1,950 TC)

 - I Wanna Dance - 5,579 (1,938)

 - Elvis - 5,527 (2,328)

Knock at the Cabin - 4,649 (1,980 TC)

 - Black Phone - 4,684 (1,873)

 - Crawdads - 5,157 (1,803)

 - M3GAN - 4,412 (1,837)

The Chosen Season 3 - 3,542 (1,663 TC)

 - Otto - 3,582 (1,324)

 - Violent Night - 3,755 (1,511)

BTS: Yet To Come in Cinemas (OD Wed) - 2,377 (1,030 TC)

The Amazing Maurice - 1,770 (618 TC)

 - Family Camp - 1,549 (532)

 

T-4 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - 23,004 (2,545 TC)

 - Black Panther 2 - 28,743 (2,670)

 - Doctor Strange 2 - 26,823 (2,402)

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Avatar 2	2,994	47,931	-15.17%	21,638	356.34	26,293	2,874	21,914
Puss in Boots 2	2,987	37,547	-7.28%	37,300	291.58	247	0	167
M3GAN	2,915	36,745	-18.53%	35,966	215.19	779	0	0
A Man Called Otto	3,133	33,715	-9.66%	33,650	235.84	65	0	0
Missing	2,600	30,935	-19.00%	30,796	207.39	139	0	0
Plane	2,467	28,149	-11.69%	28,076	165.66	73	0	0
Infinity Pool	1,670	21,605		21,593		12	0	0
Fear	918	12,584		12,569		15	0	0
The Whale	1,501	9,216	-20.20%	9,191	110.94	25	0	0
The Fabelmans	1,760	8,935	73.29%	8,905	85.11	30	0	0
House Party	982	7,760	-52.48%	7,760	102.27	0	0	0
Women Talking	621	7,287		7,266		21	0	0
Left Behind	1,398	6,396		6,384		12	0	0
Slime The Movie	922	6,378	-53.87%	6,378	89.30	0	0	0
Everything Everywhere	1,332	6,358		6,347		11	0	0
Black Panther 2	935	5,576	-47.64%	5,576	127.94	0	0	0
The Banshees	1,064	4,829		4,819		10	0	0
I Wanna Dance	939	3,732	-26.87%	3,732	98.63	0	0	0
Elvis	811	3,729		3,725		4	0	0
TAR	494	1,998		1,995		3	0	0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 1/13 Weekend

OW Showtimes Comps

Infinity Pool - 21,605 (1,670 TC)

 - The Cursed - 20,717 (1,609)

 - Infinite Storm - 19,579 (1,481)

Fear - 12,584 (918 TC)

 - Breaking - 12,196 (891)

 - Armageddon Time - 12,340 (945)

 - The Devil Conspiracy - 12,610 (917)

 

Left Behind: Rise of the Antichrist - 6,396 (1,398 TC)

 - I Heard the Bells - 6,607 (1,109)

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

80 for Brady (1/28) - 270 (270)

80 for Brady (1/31) - 534 (532)

80 for Brady (2/1) - 538 (537)

80 for Brady - 30,871 (2,381 TC)

 - I Wanna Dance - 28,953 (2,345)

 - Ticket to Paradise - 31,725 (2,366)

 - Marry Me - 27,987 (2,321)

Knock at the Cabin - 31,931 (2,365 TC)

 - Black Phone - 30,912 (2,156)

 - Crawdads - 29,677 (2,121)

 - M3GAN - 29,092 (2,210)

 - Beast - 31,538 (2,106)

The Chosen Season 3 - 11,342 (1,802 TC)

 - Honk for Jesus - 11,931 (1,249)

 - Journal for Jordan - 12,263 (1,316)

BTS: Yet To Come in Cinemas (3-Day) - 8,348 (1,040 TC)

The Amazing Maurice - 10,077 (717 TC)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Magic Mike 3 - 2,589 (1,005 TC)

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 2,599 (1,511)

 - Amsterdam - 2,546 (1,441)

Titanic 25 Year - 1,870 (910 TC)

 

T-3 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - 23,525 (2,664 TC)

 - Black Panther 2 - 28,981 (2,733)

 - Thor 4 - 23,551 (2,550)

[filmlover]

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 1/27/23)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
2/1/2023	BTS: Yet to Come in Cinemas					Trafalgar Releasing
2/2/2023	The Chosen: Season 3 Finale	$8,000,000 – $11,000,000		$13,000,000 – $17,000,000		Fathom Events / Angel Studios
2/3/2023	80 for Brady	$12,000,000 – $17,000,000	+50%	$38,000,000 – $64,000,000	+47%	Paramount Pictures
2/3/2023	The Amazing Maurice					Viva Pictures
2/3/2023	Knock at the Cabin	$19,000,000 – $27,000,000		$47,000,000 – $77,000,000		Universal Pictures
2/3/2023	Sword Art Online The Movie -Progressive- Scherzo of Deep Night					Crunchyroll / Sony
2/10/2023	Magic Mike’s Last Dance	$16,000,000 – $25,000,000	-15%	$38,000,000 – $58,000,000	-15%	Warner Bros. Pictures
2/10/2023	Titanic (25 Year Anniversary)	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000		$18,000,000 – $34,000,000		Paramount Pictures
2/15/2023	Marlowe	$1,000,000 – $3,000,000		$2,500,000 – $8,000,000		Open Road Films
2/17/2023	Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania	$98,000,000 – $128,000,000	+3%	$249,000,000 – $339,000,000	+3%	Disney / Marvel Studios
2/17/2023	Of An Age (Limited)					Focus Features
2/21/2023	Untitled Crunchyroll Film					Crunchyroll / Sony
2/24/2023	Cocaine Bear	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000		$18,000,000 – $36,000,000		Universal Pictures
2/24/2023	Jesus Revolution	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000		$23,000,000 – $51,000,000		Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company

 

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Cocaine Bear and Jesus Revolution Could End February as a Solid Counter-Programming Duo - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

[M37]

25 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

T-3 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - 23,525 (2,664 TC)

 - Black Panther 2 - 28,981 (2,733)

 - Thor 4 - 23,551 (2,550)

That's really a lot of shows for AMWQ, given that Thor's number was based on a higher forecast but also somewhat limited 3 weeks out by the strength of the release schedule that came before it. That Saturday (7/09) was the second highest grossing single day post-pandemic, behind only NWH's opening Sat

 

Shows are being added like a $140M-$150M opener

[GOGODanca]

That BTS thing is gonna have a ridiculous per theater average

[Factcheck]

7 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 1/27/23)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
2/1/2023	BTS: Yet to Come in Cinemas					Trafalgar Releasing
2/2/2023	The Chosen: Season 3 Finale	$8,000,000 – $11,000,000		$13,000,000 – $17,000,000		Fathom Events / Angel Studios
2/3/2023	80 for Brady	$12,000,000 – $17,000,000	+50%	$38,000,000 – $64,000,000	+47%	Paramount Pictures
2/3/2023	The Amazing Maurice					Viva Pictures
2/3/2023	Knock at the Cabin	$19,000,000 – $27,000,000		$47,000,000 – $77,000,000		Universal Pictures
2/3/2023	Sword Art Online The Movie -Progressive- Scherzo of Deep Night					Crunchyroll / Sony
2/10/2023	Magic Mike’s Last Dance	$16,000,000 – $25,000,000	-15%	$38,000,000 – $58,000,000	-15%	Warner Bros. Pictures
2/10/2023	Titanic (25 Year Anniversary)	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000		$18,000,000 – $34,000,000		Paramount Pictures
2/15/2023	Marlowe	$1,000,000 – $3,000,000		$2,500,000 – $8,000,000		Open Road Films
2/17/2023	Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania	$98,000,000 – $128,000,000	+3%	$249,000,000 – $339,000,000	+3%	Disney / Marvel Studios
2/17/2023	Of An Age (Limited)					Focus Features
2/21/2023	Untitled Crunchyroll Film					Crunchyroll / Sony
2/24/2023	Cocaine Bear	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000		$18,000,000 – $36,000,000		Universal Pictures
2/24/2023	Jesus Revolution	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000		$23,000,000 – $51,000,000		Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company

 

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Cocaine Bear and Jesus Revolution Could End February as a Solid Counter-Programming Duo - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

It has decreased the AMWQ higher-end projection from 347M to 339M and then saying that it increased by 3% from the last projection. What kind of joke is this?

[Cooper Legion]

2 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

It has decreased the AMWQ higher-end projection from 347M to 339M and then saying that it increased by 3% from the last projection. What kind of joke is this?

They tightened the high and low ends both but presumably the % change is based on the (hidden) point est.

[M37]

That's a hefty forecast increase for 80 for Brady ... haven't really been monitoring the tracking numbers for it; has it been picking up to that degree?

[Cooper Legion]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

That's a hefty forecast increase for 80 for Brady ... haven't really been monitoring the tracking numbers for it; has it been picking up to that degree?

Has like 3 EA days making things annoying but I’m closer to their new range than old range

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

That's a hefty forecast increase for 80 for Brady ... haven't really been monitoring the tracking numbers for it; has it been picking up to that degree?

It has. With all the sneaks it should at least hit double digits opening.

[katnisscinnaplex]

TB12(m) inevitable

[Brainbug]

27 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 1/27/23)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
2/1/2023	BTS: Yet to Come in Cinemas					Trafalgar Releasing
2/2/2023	The Chosen: Season 3 Finale	$8,000,000 – $11,000,000		$13,000,000 – $17,000,000		Fathom Events / Angel Studios
2/3/2023	80 for Brady	$12,000,000 – $17,000,000	+50%	$38,000,000 – $64,000,000	+47%	Paramount Pictures
2/3/2023	The Amazing Maurice					Viva Pictures
2/3/2023	Knock at the Cabin	$19,000,000 – $27,000,000		$47,000,000 – $77,000,000		Universal Pictures
2/3/2023	Sword Art Online The Movie -Progressive- Scherzo of Deep Night					Crunchyroll / Sony
2/10/2023	Magic Mike’s Last Dance	$16,000,000 – $25,000,000	-15%	$38,000,000 – $58,000,000	-15%	Warner Bros. Pictures
2/10/2023	Titanic (25 Year Anniversary)	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000		$18,000,000 – $34,000,000		Paramount Pictures
2/15/2023	Marlowe	$1,000,000 – $3,000,000		$2,500,000 – $8,000,000		Open Road Films
2/17/2023	Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania	$98,000,000 – $128,000,000	+3%	$249,000,000 – $339,000,000	+3%	Disney / Marvel Studios
2/17/2023	Of An Age (Limited)					Focus Features
2/21/2023	Untitled Crunchyroll Film					Crunchyroll / Sony
2/24/2023	Cocaine Bear	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000		$18,000,000 – $36,000,000		Universal Pictures
2/24/2023	Jesus Revolution	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000		$23,000,000 – $51,000,000		Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company

 

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Cocaine Bear and Jesus Revolution Could End February as a Solid Counter-Programming Duo - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

 

Cocaine Bear could open to 4 or 40M OW, both woudnt surprise me. I have no idea if that movie has potential and if yes, how much.

[M37]

29 minutes ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Has like 3 EA days making things annoying but I’m closer to their new range than old range

 

29 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It has. With all the sneaks it should at least hit double digits opening.

Fair enough. I'm always hesitant that these more mature/older skewing titles can be pre-sale heavy and really flatline in the final week with less GA/walk-up appeal, but again honestly haven't really been paying close enough attention to have a strong opinion one way or another.

 

[M37]

21 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Cocaine Bear could open to 4 or 40M OW, both woudnt surprise me. I have no idea if that movie has potential and if yes, how much.

Really getting a Snakes on Plane vibe here: a concept and trailer that garner a lot of attention, but with a much smaller number of people actually willing to pay to watch the entire movie

[Eric Prime]

39 minutes ago, M37 said:

That's a hefty forecast increase for 80 for Brady ... haven't really been monitoring the tracking numbers for it; has it been picking up to that degree?

I really hoped people would wake up and not submit themselves to what is obvious Tom Brady propaganda. But alas, we don't live in a perfect world.

[filmlover]

I'm just looking forward to when Book Club 2 (another movie about four senior women with Jane Fonda) is close to release and a lot of people go "wait, didn't that movie come out a few months ago?"