The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[GOGODanca]

Shazam was also coming off a mega hit in Aquaman which revitalized that fanbase temporarily, now its following a disappointment in Black Adam and completely new direction which might not even involve Shazam in the future and hard to justify blowing price of admission for that for many

[Porthos]

22 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

The comment in question was about OW. 

 

In case people want to see the comment in question:

 

On 1/30/2023 at 8:12 AM, MovieMan89 said:

I think the possibility that this one will underperform needs to be highly weighed. This has always been the least successful sub-franchise of MCU and Phase 4 on the whole killed a ton of the momentum for MCU. This is not Ant Man 2 days where MCU was riding the ultimate popularity snd goodwill high. I would not be shocked with an OW somewhere between the first and second’s OWs. WOM needs to be incredible I think for this to be any kind of breakout. 

 

A sub 75.8m OW is... "unlikely", even with the current reception, I'd say.

 

(as in: Impossible)

 

===

 

Now if I want to be fair to MM89, his later posts do indeed shift to talking about total overall gross. And given current reception, could in fact happen, though I don't have great grasp on likelihood. 

 

But most of the "dog piling" was because of the OW comment above. 

Edited February 17, 2023 by Porthos

[MovieMan89]

35 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

You said that and it isn't happening so...seems like people were right. 

I changed my stance on OW after pre-sales were pointed out (but still rightfully  brushed off the 130+ predictions being thrown my way) but maintained it would be wildly frontloaded and have a finish in the range of those 2. I see nothing suggesting otherwise rn. If anything, could even miss AM1 if this is as bad as reviews suggest. 
 

And weren’t you the one arguing w me about 130+ nonsense (or was that someone else, certainly don’t have time to waste digging through a message board)? If so though, lol at you calling me out on a wrong prediction. 

Edited February 17, 2023 by MovieMan89

[Borobudur]

34 minutes ago, Eric the Conqueror said:

The big issue that Shazam faces is the same issue Dark Phoenix was in a couple years ago. It was greenlit and produced before a huge franchise/corporate restructuring, and it now exists as a weird thing that doesn't build up to anything. So that means there's no investment for the fans, who are all preoccupied with the new Gunnverse stuff that's starting with The Flash, and by proxy the normies don't care either.

 

...still gonna track it tho lol

Shazam should be still quite feasible to blend in with Gunnverse. They never actually show who is it the Superman in the after credit scene. 

 

Also, it is also quite dumb for WB to just write off Shazam, it is not like they have a lot of series in their active library now. Not to mention they got to mitigate some risk coming off from Miller's involvement in Flash.

 

Can you imagine Disney just throw away Avatar franchise because they were greenlit before the takeover? 

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I changed my stance on OW after pre-sales were pointed out (but still rightfully  brushed off the 130+ predictions being thrown my way) but maintained it would be wildly frontloaded and have a finish in the range of those 2. I see nothing suggesting otherwise rn. If anything, could even miss AM1 if this is as bad as reviews suggest. 

Ok. Let's revisit this last statement in a few weeks

[THUNDER BIRD]

6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I changed my stance on OW after pre-sales were pointed out (but still rightfully  brushed off the 130+ predictions being thrown my way) but maintained it would be wildly frontloaded and have a finish in the range of those 2. I see nothing suggesting otherwise rn. If anything, could even miss AM1 if this is as bad as reviews suggest. 
 

And weren’t you the one arguing w me about 130+ nonsense (or was that someone else, certainly don’t have time to waste digging through a message board)? If so though, lol at you calling me out on a wrong prediction. 

It's not doing less than Ant Man 1

[Flamengo81]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

And given current reception, could in fact happen, though I don't have great grasp on likelihood. 

I would say it failing to match Ant-Man 2 is VERY likely. I still don't see it geting behind the first one because of the sizeable advantage it will have domestically, but it's not impossible either IMO.

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Ok. Let's revisit this last statement in a few weeks

Btw after seeing your latest edit, I'm not calling you out for being wrong. I was also wrong on this movie. I'm calling you out for being wrong and subsequently trying to take credit for the wrong prediction. I didn't even remember your post until you brought it up again, claiming to be right for some reason. 

Edited February 17, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

It's not doing less than Ant Man 1

Unlikely, not at all impossible. People don’t care about ant man to start with. Add awful reviews to the mix (headed for sub 40% at this rate) and failing to see where any strong box office run is supposed to come from? 

[charlie Jatinder]

12 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I changed my stance on OW after pre-sales were pointed out (but still rightfully  brushed off the 130+ predictions being thrown my way) but maintained it would be wildly frontloaded and have a finish in the range of those 2. I see nothing suggesting otherwise rn. If anything, could even miss AM1 if this is as bad as reviews suggest. 
 

And weren’t you the one arguing w me about 130+ nonsense (or was that someone else, certainly don’t have time to waste digging through a message board)? If so though, lol at you calling me out on a wrong prediction. 

Right until reactions drop, 150M looked like very good chance. If you were thinking it open less than 100M before reaction drop, clearly box office tracking ain't for you.

[TheFlatLannister]

28 minutes ago, YM! said:

TBH if The Flash breaks out and is well received, I think Blue Beetle could do 200m domestic and surprise as it’s be the start of a new DCU.

Even if Blue Beetle is well received, I don't see it grossing $30M more than a Black Adam film with a star in The Rock and a Cavil cameo 

[Notthereverseflash24]

1 minute ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Even if Blue Beetle is well received, I don't see it grossing $30M more than a Black Adam film with a star in The Rock and a Cavil cameo 

As if people gave enough shit about Cavill cameo lol

Edited February 17, 2023 by Notthereverseflash24
..

[TheFlatLannister]

14 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I changed my stance on OW after pre-sales were pointed out (but still rightfully  brushed off the 130+ predictions being thrown my way) but maintained it would be wildly frontloaded and have a finish in the range of those 2. I see nothing suggesting otherwise rn. If anything, could even miss AM1 if this is as bad as reviews suggest. 
 

And weren’t you the one arguing w me about 130+ nonsense (or was that someone else, certainly don’t have time to waste digging through a message board)? If so though, lol at you calling me out on a wrong prediction. 

The $130M prediction were always predicated on if the film was good or not. Unreasonable to expect an Antman film to open in the Avatar/Batman range with shit reviews. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Right until reactions drop, 150M looked like very good chance. If you were thinking it open less than 100M before reaction drop, clearly box office tracking ain't for you.

Eh. It depends on what one's expectations for WOM was. If someone was expecting bad WOM then under 100 wasn't off-base. However, 57-76 was never on the table. 

Edited February 17, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Btw after seeing your latest edit, I'm not calling you out for being wrong. I was also wrong on this movie. I'm calling you out for being wrong and subsequently trying to take credit for the wrong prediction. I didn't even remember your post until you brought it up again, claiming to be right for some reason. 

I was completely right about this way underperforming some expectations here, the reason I brought it up to start with. In fact, I even caveated that with it would need incredible WOM to do what most were predicting, and I wasn’t wrong. I admitted that lower than AM2 OW seemed a bit extreme after people brought data, so that’s really all there is to say. But I do think it’s funny it could very well end up pretty close to AM2 OW after all, with very outside chance it still misses it. 

[MovieMan89]

And I still believe this will show a new level of preview front loading for MCU, which was my other argument as well all along. Franchise is just getting more and more frontloaded. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I was completely right about this way underperforming some expectations here, the reason I brought it up to start with. In fact, I even caveated that with it would need incredible WOM to do what most were predicting, and I wasn’t wrong. I admitted that lower than AM2 OW seemed a bit extreme after people brought data, so that’s really all there is to say. But I do think it’s funny it could very well end up pretty close to AM2 OW after all, with very outside chance it still misses it. 

There is no "outside chance" that it misses it. 

[thajdikt]

10 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Unlikely, not at all impossible. People don’t care about ant man to start with. Add awful reviews to the mix (headed for sub 40% at this rate) and failing to see where any strong box office run is supposed to come from? 

Beating Ant-Man 1 isn´t a strong box office run. It will beat it easily. 

[keysersoze123]

9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Right until reactions drop, 150M looked like very good chance. If you were thinking it open less than 100M before reaction drop, clearly box office tracking ain't for you.

I disagree big time. Even before reactions hit it was trending well below Thor/Wakanda. It was looking like 22m if it had maintained the pace and that was never expected for an Ant-man movie. Just because of a sizable fanbase buys ticket on opening day does not mean this character is similar level as Thor !!!

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

There is no "outside chance" that it misses it. 

If as low as 16 is on the table, then yes there is. 
 

Emphasis on outside chance. We’ll see how bad immediate WOM is. 

Edited February 17, 2023 by MovieMan89