The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

Oh wow Titanic and Avatar still have many PLFs

In fairness most are in 3D, not necessarily the larger screens.

[upriser7]

2 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Ant-Man 3	3,683	191,032		147,834		43,198	5,596	27,297
Magic Mike 3	2,665	34,306	14.61%	34,233	240.52	73	0	0
80 for Brady	2,704	32,309	-29.26%	32,244	126.99	65	0	0
Knock at the Cabin	2,290	28,513	-36.21%	28,473	121.38	40	0	0
Puss in Boots 2	2,657	27,326	-16.82%	27,182	169.85	144	0	68
Marlowe	2,126	26,363		26,302		61	0	0
Avatar 2	2,303	22,083	-30.57%	7,420	226.94	14,663	6	14,637
Titanic 25 Year	1,891	15,285	-34.56%	0	241.31	15,285	0	15,285
A Man Called Otto	1,358	9,904	-57.60%	9,873	111.40	31	0	0
Missing	1,260	9,216	-56.88%	9,213	119.40	3	0	0
M3GAN	1,255	8,414	-64.21%	8,409	102.60	5	0	0
Plane	505	3,028	-76.74%	3,028	92.51	0	0	0
The Amazing Maurice	402	2,596	-78.41%	2,593		3	0	0
Winnie-the-Pooh	405	1,843		1,843		0	0	0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 2/17 Weekend

OW Showtimes Comps

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - 191,032 (3,683 TC)

 - No Way Home - 206,421 (3,340)

 - Thor 4 - 194,969 (3,540)

 - Batman - 171,959 (3,553)

 - Top Gun - 182,709 (3,834)

 - Avatar 2 - 193,730 (3,567)

 - Black Panther 2 - 222,802 (3,599)

Marlowe (3-Day) - 26,363 (2,126 TC)

 - Father Stu - 27,690 (2,358)

 - She Said - 26,575 (1,863)

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

Jesus Revolution EA - 2,926 (1,890)

 - Downton Abbey EA - 2,601 (2,561)

Jesus Revolution - 22,173 (1,873 TC)

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 22,666 (2,163)

 - Massive Talent - 21,853 (1,815)

 - The 355 - 21,633 (1,838)

 - Ron's Gone Wrong - 21,967 (1,984)

Cocaine Bear - 33,501 (2,362 TC)

 - Halloween Kills - 32,962 (2,343)

 - Jackass Forever - 32,919 (2,445)

 - Death on the Nile - 33,327 (2,240)

Emily - 4,185 (355 TC)

 - Belfast - 3,960 (326)

 - Spirited - 3,793 (282)

 

 

T-2 Week Showtimes Comps

Creed III (EA) - 1,126 (889 TC)

 - Top Gun EA - 970 (932)

Creed III - 3,817 (1,486 TC)

 - Violent Night - 3,755 (1,511)

 - Babylon - 3,851 (1,769)

Demon Slayer (OD) - 3,868 (1,401 TC)

 

T-3 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Scream VI - 6,748 (2,192 TC)

 - No Time to Die - 7,191 (1,520)

 - Lost City - 5,334 (1,929)

 - Dragon Ball Super - 6,877 (2,065)

 

T-4 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Shazam 2 - 8,326 (1,558)

 - Nope - 7,792 (1,976)

 

T-13 Week Previews Showtimes

Fast X - 9,320 (1,852 TC)

How come total number of IMAX shows last week were just 2950 but AntMan alone has nearly 5600 IMAX shows this week ? Is it just due to AntMan having much lesser runtime than A2, Titanic ?

[upriser7]

So A2 is losing only 23% of PLF shows... that's much better than what I expected. It's losing almost all the IMAX shows though 

[M37]

22 hours ago, M37 said:

Updated Chart at T-1

 

While the average line has been much bouncier than usual - thanks largely to the outlier high and low values for Drafthouse and Jax/Pho/Ral samples respectively, which are not updated daily - it really hasn't moved up or down much since ~T-24.

 

That is, until starting around T-7, when values vs comps started to drift downward. Some of that can likely be chalked up to Super Bowl and Valentine's distractions as discussed, but Mon and Wed did not recover substantially to offset. Still believe there is room to bounceback on the final day, and a lower pre-sale volume would typically mean a higher growth rate than the ~25% for most samples from T-1 to T-0 and ~44% for Alpha to T-F that we saw for both Thor and BPWF (MoM was 16-20% and 33% from a higher baseline value).

Getting to $20M from here is sill possible and wouldn't yet rule it out, but the weaker pace overall, lower values for secondary markets, the absence of a summer or full holiday Friday, and mediocre reviews all suggest the ceiling is dropping

 

Thursday Preview Forecast: $18M or $19M ($17.5-$19.4 with Disney rounding)

What a weak final day

 

No chart this morning, but looking over all the numbers from last night, it looks to me like we'll probably get to $18M as the official number, but I wouldn't be surprised if that's rounded up from the $17s. I said a while back that sales smelled a little fan-heavy-ish, with Alpha and Drafthouse having the highest comp values and secondary market being much lower ... and that's how it finished. Higher fan/major market share and poor reviews is not a good combination when looking at legs and IM ...

 

23 hours ago, M37 said:

Some good news though: the weekend sales data that is available shows solid and improving numbers for Fri & Sat (relative to Thur), and AMWQ should leg out better from Thursday across those two days than all MCU comps except for BPWF, with a holiday Sunday to follow. Expecting close to if not over $80M through Saturday, which should be enough for at least a triple digit OW, though probably not all that much more unless we get a big/GA friendly Sat and Sun:

$100-115M 3-day (~5.6-5.9x IM)

So much for that good news. The numbers from Drafthouse I was using to project IM came down with final update, below MoM, which had a 1.52x Fri and 4.13x TF&Sat vs Thur. Probably looking at just around 4x Thur by end of day Sat, and even with the holiday Sunday, IM doesn't look like its going to get close to 6x.

 

We may be in a Disney searching for "lost money" in Puerto Rico situation to get a $100M 3-day

[M37]

4 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

How come total number of IMAX shows last week were just 2950 but AntMan alone has nearly 5600 IMAX shows this week ? Is it just due to AntMan having much lesser runtime than A2, Titanic ?

That, and many theaters were on reduced operating hours last weekend due to low business, and have flipped to über long hours this week 

 

So a 12/4/8 Avatar, vs like 10/1/4/7/10 for Ant-Man

[upriser7]

8 minutes ago, M37 said:

That, and many theaters were on reduced operating hours last weekend due to low business, and have flipped to über long hours this week 

 

So a 12/4/8 Avatar, vs like 10/1/4/7/10 for Ant-Man

I checked total number of IMAX shows for the 2 weekends before last one and they were 2878, so roughly the same as last weekend.

[Shawn Robbins]

15 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I guess those folks keep an eye on this thread and saw the trend going down big time especially post reactions 🙂

 

I agree with @Shawn that 100m will be a nail biter. If its close Disney will report for sure. No one remembers actuals. Its the estimates that matter especially in mainstream media. 

Getting flashbacks to TF: Age of Extinction's $100M and Puerto Rico for ROTF's $200M.

[keysersoze123]

Ant-man 3 Friday MTC1 presales final -  236663/1443561 3961002.27 +49427 

Ant-man 3 Sat MTC1 - 193645/1544055 3060193.17 8659 shows +26583 (24 hour data taken earlier in the evening)

 

At least it looks like it will increase tomorrow for sure. 

[keysersoze123]

21 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ant-man MTC2 previews - 162147/794420 2297441.32 5680 shows

 

Overnight run that just wrapped up. its about 70% of Wakanda. So about 18.6m. 

Ant-man 3 MTC2 previews final - 235371/803067 3245994.75 5715 shows

 

I would say 3.5m finish as it started earlier and few small untracked locations at MTC2. Walkups were weak even at MTC2 where traditional its better relative to MTC1 even for big movies. I think Disney will report 18mish range. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 2/16/2023 at 8:35 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Cocaine Bear	T-7	Jax	6	19	2	38	2,164	1.76%
		Phx	6	15	5	66	1,980	3.33%
		Ral	8	20	8	61	1,569	3.89%
	Total		20	54	15	165	5,713	2.89%
Jesus Revolution	T-7	Jax	5	9	6	35	1,021	3.43%
		Phx	4	5	0	25	622	4.02%
		Ral	7	12	9	99	1,168	8.48%
	Total		16	26	15	159	2,811	5.66%
Jesus Rev (EA)	T-6	Jax	5	11	9	262	1,021	25.66%
		Phx	5	8	0	162	850	19.06%
		Ral	8	13	17	694	1,506	46.08%
	Total		18	32	26	1,118	3,377	33.11%
Scream VI	T-21	Jax	5	23	7	103	3,350	3.07%
		Phx	5	15	12	196	2,792	7.02%
		Ral	8	33	7	139	4,211	3.30%
	Total		18	71	26	438	10,353	4.23%

 

Jesus Revolution T-7 comps (excluding EA)

 - Left Behind - .941x (574k)

 - I Wanna Dance - 1.136x (829k)

 

Jesus Revolution + EA comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - 2.36x (4.25m)

 - Left Behind - 7.56x (4.61m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 9.12x (6.66m)

 

Cocaine Bear T-7 comps

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.542x (2.235m)

 - Nope - .314x (2.01m)

 - Bullet Train - .609x (2.04m)

 - Violent Night - missed

 

Looking like 2m previews at this point.

 

Scream VI T-21 comps

 - Nope - 1.848x (11.83m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 8.76x (12.7m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Cocaine Bear	T-6	Jax	6	19	4	42	2,164	1.94%
		Phx	6	17	-7	59	2,060	2.86%
		Ral	8	20	1	62	1,569	3.95%
	Total		20	56	-2	163	5,793	2.81%
Creed III (EA)	T-12	Jax	5	8	26	26	2,172	1.20%
		Phx	1	2	3	3	618	0.49%
		Ral	2	2	16	16	412	3.88%
	Total		8	12	45	45	3,202	1.41%
Creed III (Pre)	T-10	Jax	1	1	8	8	389	2.06%
	Total		1	1	8	8	389	2.06%
Jesus Revolution	T-6	Jax	5	9	2	37	1,021	3.62%
		Phx	5	7	0	25	774	3.23%
		Ral	8	14	7	106	1,362	7.78%
	Total		18	30	9	168	3,157	5.32%
Jesus Rev (EA)	T-5	Jax	5	11	9	271	1,021	26.54%
		Phx	5	8	0	162	850	19.06%
		Ral	8	13	12	706	1,506	46.88%
	Total		18	32	21	1,139	3,377	33.73%
Scream VI	T-20	Jax	5	23	8	111	3,350	3.31%
		Phx	5	17	10	206	2,894	7.12%
		Ral	8	33	8	147	4,211	3.49%
	Total		18	73	26	464	10,455	4.44%
Shazam 2	T-27	Jax	5	55	31	31	9,345	0.33%
		Phx	6	29	43	43	6,134	0.70%
		Ral	8	53	62	62	7,666	0.81%
	Total		19	137	136	136	23,145	0.59%

Fast X	T-90	Jax	5	54	57*	97	7,982	1.22%
		Phx	6	20	46*	81	3,534	2.29%
		Ral	8	46	26*	83	7,930	1.05%
	Total		19	120	129*	261	19,446	1.34%

*Fast X new sales since T-96

 

Jesus Revolution T-6 comps (excluding EA)

 - Left Behind - .875x (534k)

 - I Wanna Dance - 1.063x (776k)

 

Jesus Revolution + EA comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - 2.14x (3.85m)

 - Left Behind - 6.807x (4.16m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 8.27x (6.04m)

 

Cocaine Bear T-6 comps

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.273x (1.846m)

 - Nope - .281x (1.8m)

 - Bullet Train - .511x (1.71m)

 - Violent Night - missed

 

Creed III EA T-12 comps

 - NTTD EA - .429x (471k)

 - Elvis EA - .652x (196k)

 

Scream VI T-20 comps

 - Nope - 1.909x (12.22m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 9.1x (13.19m)

 

Shazam 2 Day 1 comps

 - F9 - .5x (3.55m)

 - Black Adam - .443x (3.367m)

 - Black Widow - .253x (3.34m)

[filmlover]

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 2/17/23)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Distributor
2/21/2023	Untitled Crunchyroll Film			Crunchyroll / Sony
2/24/2023	Cocaine Bear	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000	$18,000,000 – $36,000,000	Universal Pictures
2/24/2023	Jesus Revolution	$4,000,000 – $10,000,000	$13,000,000 – $42,000,000	Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company
2/24/2023	My Happy Ending			Roadside Attractions
2/24/2023	Mummies (Limited)			Warner Bros. Pictures
3/3/2023	Creed III	$25,000,000 – $33,000,000	$71,000,000 – $95,000,000	MGM
3/3/2023	Demon Slayer: To the Swordsmith Village	$6,000,000 – $11,000,000	$10,000,000 – $21,000,000	Crunchyroll / Sony
3/3/2023	Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre			Lionsgate
3/10/2023	65	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000	$26,000,000 – $47,000,000	Sony / Columbia Pictures
3/10/2023	Champions	$4,000,000 – $9,000,000	$14,000,000 – $44,000,000	Focus Features
3/10/2023	Scream VI	$29,000,000 – $38,000,000	$65,000,000 – $92,000,000	Paramount Pictures
3/17/2023	Inside			Focus Features
3/17/2023	Moving On			Roadside Attractions
3/17/2023	Shazam! Fury of the Gods	$43,000,000 – $52,000,000	$101,000,000 – $136,000,000	Warner Bros. Pictures

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast: DC's Shazam! Fury of the Gods Early Outlook, Scream VI Surges Following Super Bowl Spot Buzz - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

[Menor the Destroyer]

15 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:45pm - 4:30pm]

 * NOTE:  All showtimes that started before 3:45pm were sampled at the start of their showtimes.

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	307	26899	37374	10475	28.03%

 

Total Net Showings Removed Since Mid-Day	1
Total Net Seats Added Since Mid-Day	1
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	1083

 

T-0 Comps

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
ET [4:50-5:20]	163.44		1095	6409		0/147	12843/19252	33.29%		6409	163.44%		15.53m
Bats [3:00-4:20]	89.10		1279	11757		1/328	27144/38901	30.22%		11757	89.10%		19.24m
MoM [3:30-4:35]	49.60		1656	21117		0/409	25412/46529	45.38%		21117	49.60%		17.86m
TGM [3:30-4:45]	91.29		1111	11474		2/345	31538/43012	26.68%		11474	91.29%		18.04m
JWD [3:45-4:35]	95.52		1476	10966		0/290	22873/33839	32.41%		10966	95.52%		17.19m
L&T [3:45-4:35]	61.76		2056	16962		0/320	23111/40073	42.33%		16962	61.76%		17.91m
BP2 [3:45-4:40]	62.35		2053	16800		2/376	26426/43216	38.87%		16800	62.35%		17.46m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     2689/14211  [18.92% sold]
Matinee:    658/3941  [16.70% | 6.28% of all tickets sold]
3D:            1332/6111  [21.80% | 12.72% of all tickets sold]

 

======

 

 

Well... the bleeding stopped?  Yay?

 

I mean, considering it was in semi-free fall, decent enough walkups today.  AND this has a slightly higher 3D percentage than recent Marvel films (MoM [11.32%] | L&T [7.43%] | BP2 [10.98%]).  Knowing how Disney reports, let's go with 18m +/- .5m.

 

And, FWIW, I think I'd say Sacramento is pointing to 18m anyway if I give a slight boost to the recent Marvel comps of 17.86/17.91/17.46 for higher 3D share and slight ticket price increase.  Might be tempted to think that Sacto is pointing to 17.75m, but I think the other comps (with the notable exception of Eternals [which was before ticket price hikes]) all kinda sorta point to 18m-ish anyway so I do feel comfortable with that.

 

So all in all, not nearly as good as initial pre-sales suggested but the bottom didn't fall out.  Plus, objectively speaking, it will easily be the highest Ant-Man preview even when taking ticket inflation into account.

 

Still... Think the gif sums up my thoughts.

Hmm...dark magic gets away with it this time. 

[Krissykins]

Nice update for Scream VI in the long range forecast! 

[ChipDerby]

Real bummed about a $50 mil OW for Shazam

[JustLurking]

57 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 2/17/23)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Distributor
2/21/2023	Untitled Crunchyroll Film			Crunchyroll / Sony
2/24/2023	Cocaine Bear	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000	$18,000,000 – $36,000,000	Universal Pictures
2/24/2023	Jesus Revolution	$4,000,000 – $10,000,000	$13,000,000 – $42,000,000	Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company
2/24/2023	My Happy Ending			Roadside Attractions
2/24/2023	Mummies (Limited)			Warner Bros. Pictures
3/3/2023	Creed III	$25,000,000 – $33,000,000	$71,000,000 – $95,000,000	MGM
3/3/2023	Demon Slayer: To the Swordsmith Village	$6,000,000 – $11,000,000	$10,000,000 – $21,000,000	Crunchyroll / Sony
3/3/2023	Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre			Lionsgate
3/10/2023	65	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000	$26,000,000 – $47,000,000	Sony / Columbia Pictures
3/10/2023	Champions	$4,000,000 – $9,000,000	$14,000,000 – $44,000,000	Focus Features
3/10/2023	Scream VI	$29,000,000 – $38,000,000	$65,000,000 – $92,000,000	Paramount Pictures
3/17/2023	Inside			Focus Features
3/17/2023	Moving On			Roadside Attractions
3/17/2023	Shazam! Fury of the Gods	$43,000,000 – $52,000,000	$101,000,000 – $136,000,000	Warner Bros. Pictures

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast: DC's Shazam! Fury of the Gods Early Outlook, Scream VI Surges Following Super Bowl Spot Buzz - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

Isn't the demon slayer compilation limited screenings in the US? I do not see any way it opens even close to that range.

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 2/17/23)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Distributor
2/21/2023	Untitled Crunchyroll Film			Crunchyroll / Sony
2/24/2023	Cocaine Bear	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000	$18,000,000 – $36,000,000	Universal Pictures
2/24/2023	Jesus Revolution	$4,000,000 – $10,000,000	$13,000,000 – $42,000,000	Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company
2/24/2023	My Happy Ending			Roadside Attractions
2/24/2023	Mummies (Limited)			Warner Bros. Pictures
3/3/2023	Creed III	$25,000,000 – $33,000,000	$71,000,000 – $95,000,000	MGM
3/3/2023	Demon Slayer: To the Swordsmith Village	$6,000,000 – $11,000,000	$10,000,000 – $21,000,000	Crunchyroll / Sony
3/3/2023	Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre			Lionsgate
3/10/2023	65	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000	$26,000,000 – $47,000,000	Sony / Columbia Pictures
3/10/2023	Champions	$4,000,000 – $9,000,000	$14,000,000 – $44,000,000	Focus Features
3/10/2023	Scream VI	$29,000,000 – $38,000,000	$65,000,000 – $92,000,000	Paramount Pictures
3/17/2023	Inside			Focus Features
3/17/2023	Moving On			Roadside Attractions
3/17/2023	Shazam! Fury of the Gods	$43,000,000 – $52,000,000	$101,000,000 – $136,000,000	Warner Bros. Pictures

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast: DC's Shazam! Fury of the Gods Early Outlook, Scream VI Surges Following Super Bowl Spot Buzz - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

 

is crunchyroll about to shawdrop a movie or did they just forget to remove that from schedule?

[upriser7]

special thanks to @katnisscinnaplex for your weekly update of show count of each movie.

Edited February 17, 2023 by upriser7

[keysersoze123]

Huge win for this thread and Ant-man has had one of the crazy frontloaded presale run we have seen. I was conservative when I thought 20m couple of weeks ago and it did not come close. 

[Joyous Legion]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Huge win for this thread and Ant-man has had one of the crazy frontloaded presale run we have seen. I was conservative when I thought 20m couple of weeks ago and it did not come close. 

Yep. Did play with an even higher fan:ga interest ratio than even DS2 (as some were warning on day 1 — props). That plus the horrible reception was a deadly combo. 
 

Thinking of doing a longer post-Morten on the day 1 outlook (tl;dr I’d say it’s at the extreme low end of the range suggest by the start+the reception — but not quite out of range so still think it’s pretty useful and interested to grab some more data points later this year). But that will involve various new graphs and regressions and such so definitely not before going to sleep today 

[Eric the Minion]

Quorum Updates

Champions T-22: 17.63% Awareness, 5.23 Interest

Moving On T-29: 23.04%, 5.24

Shazam! Fury of the Gods T-29: 48.11%, 5.66

A Good Person T-43: 18.53%, 5.29

The Super Mario Bros. Movie T-50: 54.13%, 6.34

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 T-78: 53.69%, 6.45

Kandahar T-99: 12.39%, 5.0

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania T-1: 54.66% Awareness, 6.21 Interest

Final Awareness: 18% chance of 60M, 9% chance of 90M

Final Interest: 50% chance of 60M, 44% chance of 70M, 39% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 90M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 60M

 

John Wick: Chapter 4 T-36: 56.95% Awareness, 6.69 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 91% chance of 70M, 73% chance of 100M

T-30 Interest: 100% chance of 50M, 89% chance of 70M, 78% chance of 100M

 

Chevalier T-64: 14.08% Awareness, 4.65 Interest

T-60 Awareness: 26% chance of 10M

T-60 Interest: 35% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 43% chance of 5M, 28% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 58% chance of 5M, 25% chance of 10M