The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Nikostar]

Reviews for Creed comes out this Thursday. Should we expect a review bump?

[Eric the Minion]

On 2/19/2023 at 12:18 AM, Eric the Conqueror said:

Creed III Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	384	13568	2.83%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 84

 

Comp - T-12

0.454x of F9 (3.22M)

0.610x of No Time to Die (3.85M)

0.793x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (3.57M)

0.726x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (4.35M)

1.103x of Nope (7.06M)

0.535x of Black Adam (4.06M)

0.190x of Avatar 2 (3.24M)

Creed III Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	453	13568	3.34%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 69

 

Comp - T-11

0.524x of F9 (3.72M)

0.682x of No Time to Die (4.3M)

0.861x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (3.87M)

0.757x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (4.54M)

1.262x of Nope (8.07M)

0.593x of Black Adam (4.51M)

0.214x of Avatar 2 (3.64M)

[Eric the Minion]

23 hours ago, Eric the Conqueror said:

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-19 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	557	8200	6.79%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 3

 

Comp - T-19

2.340x of Scream (8.19M)

2.184x of Nope (13.98M)

 

...don't know what happened here lol

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-18 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	582	8200	7.10%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 25

 

Comp - T-18

2.395x of Scream (8.38M)

2.238x of Nope (14.33M)

 

Okay, we back to normal now.

[Eric the Minion]

23 hours ago, Eric the Conqueror said:

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-26 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	163	16243	1.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 10

 

Comp - T-26

0.172x of Black Widow (2.27M)

0.130x of Jurassic World: Dominion (2.34M)

0.052x of Ant-Man 3 (913K)

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-25 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	168	16243	1.03%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 5

 

Comp - T-25

0.159x of Black Widow (2.1M)

0.131x of Jurassic World: Dominion (2.37M)

0.052x of Ant-Man 3 (903K)

 

I...made a big mistake, didn't I?

[poweranimals]

What was your mistake?

[Porthos]

On 2/19/2023 at 12:05 AM, Porthos said:

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	67	7269	7735	466	6.02%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

41

 

T-19  Comp

	%		Sold T-19	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	137.06		8	340		0/74	11108/11448	2.97%		3951	11.79%		8.57m
Nope	184.19		5	253		0/84	13445/13698	1.85%		3822	12.19%		11.79m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:        92/2624  [3.51% sold]
Matinee:      42/687  [6.11% | 9.01% of all tickets sold]
3D:           184/2551  [7.21% | 39.48% of all tickets sold]

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	67	7261	7735	474	6.13%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

8

 

T-18  Comp

	%		Sold T-18	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	126.74		34	374		0/74	11074/11448	3.27%		3951	12.00%		7.92m
Nope	184.44		4	257		0/84	13438/13695	1.88%		3822	12.40%		11.80m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:         91/2624  [3.47% sold]
Matinee:       40/687  [5.82% | 8.44% of all tickets sold]
3D:            182/2551  [7.13% | 38.40% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 2/15/2023 at 1:05 AM, Porthos said:

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-93 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	156	23254	23621	367	1.55%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

9

 

0.84906x F9 (2020) at T-93 at the equivalent sources of tracking.    [???m]

 

Regal:      63/8019  [0.79% sold]
Matinee:    7/2638  [0.27% | 1.91% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Next update will be on Sunday.

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-88 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	156	23222	23624	402	1.70%

 

 

Total Seats Sold Since Tuesday

35

 

BREAKDOWN

Spoiler

T-92:	11
T-91:	14
T-90:	0
T-89:	11
T-88:	-1

 

 

0.86567x F9 (2020) at T-88 at the equivalent sources of tracking.    [???m]

 

Regal:     69/8019  [0.86% sold]
Matinee:    9/2638  [0.34% | 2.24% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Next update will be on Thursday.

Edited February 20, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, poweranimals said:

What was your mistake?

 

(he's making a humorous comment about the size of Shazam! 2's  [current] sales relative to the films he normally devotes a Full Track to)

((ie deciding to track Shazam! 2 for [nearly] a full month was the "big mistake"))

Edited February 20, 2023 by Porthos

[M37]

At what point do we start to “believe” the tracking numbers for Scream VI? I can understand some hesitation with concern it could be a more fan-heavy/mature audience and so may not have the same final week growth as typical horror comps…

 

… but current sales coupled with the massive Quorum numbers, it sure looks to me like $50M+ OW (like $7M & 7x) is coming 

 

Note: Black Adam may be a decent comp to add for similar value but lower pace, though I’m not sure how much regional/chain variance there is for DC vs horror

[Eric the Minion]

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

At what point do we start to “believe” the tracking numbers for Scream VI? I can understand some hesitation with concern it could be a more fan-heavy/mature audience and so may not have the same final week growth as typical horror comps…

 

… but current sales coupled with the massive Quorum numbers, it sure looks to me like $50M+ OW (like $7M & 7x) is coming 

 

Note: Black Adam may be a decent comp to add for similar value but lower pace, though I’m not sure how much regional/chain variance there is for DC vs horror

And y'all doubted The Quorum's powah

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 2/17/2023 at 10:20 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Cocaine Bear	T-6	Jax	6	19	4	42	2,164	1.94%
		Phx	6	17	-7	59	2,060	2.86%
		Ral	8	20	1	62	1,569	3.95%
	Total		20	56	-2	163	5,793	2.81%
Creed III (EA)	T-12	Jax	5	8	26	26	2,172	1.20%
		Phx	1	2	3	3	618	0.49%
		Ral	2	2	16	16	412	3.88%
	Total		8	12	45	45	3,202	1.41%
Creed III (Pre)	T-10	Jax	1	1	8	8	389	2.06%
	Total		1	1	8	8	389	2.06%
Jesus Revolution	T-6	Jax	5	9	2	37	1,021	3.62%
		Phx	5	7	0	25	774	3.23%
		Ral	8	14	7	106	1,362	7.78%
	Total		18	30	9	168	3,157	5.32%
Jesus Rev (EA)	T-5	Jax	5	11	9	271	1,021	26.54%
		Phx	5	8	0	162	850	19.06%
		Ral	8	13	12	706	1,506	46.88%
	Total		18	32	21	1,139	3,377	33.73%
Scream VI	T-20	Jax	5	23	8	111	3,350	3.31%
		Phx	5	17	10	206	2,894	7.12%
		Ral	8	33	8	147	4,211	3.49%
	Total		18	73	26	464	10,455	4.44%
Shazam 2	T-27	Jax	5	55	31	31	9,345	0.33%
		Phx	6	29	43	43	6,134	0.70%
		Ral	8	53	62	62	7,666	0.81%
	Total		19	137	136	136	23,145	0.59%

Fast X	T-90	Jax	5	54	57*	97	7,982	1.22%
		Phx	6	20	46*	81	3,534	2.29%
		Ral	8	46	26*	83	7,930	1.05%
	Total		19	120	129*	261	19,446	1.34%

*Fast X new sales since T-96

 

Jesus Revolution T-6 comps (excluding EA)

 - Left Behind - .875x (534k)

 - I Wanna Dance - 1.063x (776k)

 

Jesus Revolution + EA comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - 2.14x (3.85m)

 - Left Behind - 6.807x (4.16m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 8.27x (6.04m)

 

Cocaine Bear T-6 comps

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.273x (1.846m)

 - Nope - .281x (1.8m)

 - Bullet Train - .511x (1.71m)

 - Violent Night - missed

 

Creed III EA T-12 comps

 - NTTD EA - .429x (471k)

 - Elvis EA - .652x (196k)

 

Scream VI T-20 comps

 - Nope - 1.909x (12.22m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 9.1x (13.19m)

 

Shazam 2 Day 1 comps

 - F9 - .5x (3.55m)

 - Black Adam - .443x (3.367m)

 - Black Widow - .253x (3.34m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Cocaine Bear	T-3	Jax	6	19	36	78	2,164	3.60%
		Phx	6	17	28	87	2,060	4.22%
		Ral	8	20	16	78	1,569	4.97%
	Total		20	56	80	243	5,793	4.19%
Creed III	T-10	Jax	5	26	68	68	3,960	1.72%
		Phx	6	16	60	60	2,534	2.37%
		Ral	8	21	63	63	2,743	2.30%
	Total		19	63	191	191	9,237	2.07%
Creed III (EA)	T-9	Jax	5	8	27	53	2,172	2.44%
		Phx	1	2	10	13	618	2.10%
		Ral	2	2	18	34	412	8.25%
	Total		8	12	55	100	3,202	3.12%
Creed III (Pre)	T-7	Jax	1	1	2	10	389	2.57%
	Total		1	1	2	10	389	2.57%
Demon Slayer 2	T-11	Jax	5	17	268	268	2,730	9.82%
OD		Phx	4	11	278	278	2,200	12.64%
		Ral	7	23	283	283	2,664	10.62%
	Total		16	51	829	829	7,594	10.92%
Fast X	T-87	Jax	5	54	4	101	7,982	1.27%
		Phx	6	20	5	86	3,534	2.43%
		Ral	8	46	2	85	7,930	1.07%
	Total		19	120	11	272	19,446	1.40%
Jesus Revolution	T-3	Jax	5	10	14	51	1,089	4.68%
		Phx	5	7	9	34	774	4.39%
		Ral	8	14	46	152	1,362	11.16%
	Total		18	31	69	237	3,225	7.35%
Jesus Rev (EA)	T-2	Jax	5	12	67	338	1,119	30.21%
		Phx	5	8	27	189	850	22.24%
		Ral	8	13	19	725	1,506	48.14%
	Total		18	33	113	1,252	3,475	36.03%
Scream VI	T-17	Jax	5	23	25	136	3,350	4.06%
		Phx	5	17	25	231	2,894	7.98%
		Ral	8	33	13	160	4,211	3.80%
	Total		18	73	63	527	10,455	5.04%
Shazam 2	T-24	Jax	5	56	20	51	9,734	0.52%
		Phx	6	29	39	82	6,134	1.34%
		Ral	8	53	31	93	7,666	1.21%
	Total		19	138	90	226	23,534	0.96%

*All new sales since Friday morning

 

Jesus Revolution T-3 comps (excluding EA)

 - Left Behind - .905x (552k)

 - I Wanna Dance - 1.185x (865k)

 - Chosen 3 Finale - .177x (296k)

 - Chosen 3  EP 1&2 - .116x (434k)

 

Jesus Revolution + EA comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - 1.675x (3.01m)

 - Left Behind - 5.68x (3.47m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 7.445x (5.43m)

 - Chosen 3 Finale - 1.113x (1.86m)

 - Chosen 3  EP 1&2 - .727x (2.73m)

 

Cocaine Bear T-3 comps

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.438x (2.084m)

 - Nope - .297x (1.904m)

 - Bullet Train - .56x (1.88m)

 - Violent Night - 2.132x (2.344m)

 

Creed III EA T-9 comps

 - NTTD EA - .719x (791k)

 - Elvis EA - missed

 

Creed III T-10 comps

 - Elvis - .752x (2.41m)

 - No Time to Die - .405x (2.1m)

 - Dune - .296x (1.51m)

 - F9 - .236x (1.68m)

 

Demon Slayer 2 T-11 comps

 - MHA - missed

 - JJK 0 - missed

 - Dragon Ball Z - 1.214x (5.22m)

 - Slime - missed

 

Scream VI T-17 comps

 - Nope - 1.889x (12.09m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 8.64x (12.53m)

 - Black Adam - 1.128x (8.58m)

 - Suicide Squad - 2.429x (9.96m)

 

Shazam 2 T-24 comps

 - Black Widow - .228x (3.01m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - .08x (1.42m)

[stripe]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

At what point do we start to “believe” the tracking numbers for Scream VI? I can understand some hesitation with concern it could be a more fan-heavy/mature audience and so may not have the same final week growth as typical horror comps…

 

… but current sales coupled with the massive Quorum numbers, it sure looks to me like $50M+ OW (like $7M & 7x) is coming 

 

Note: Black Adam may be a decent comp to add for similar value but lower pace, though I’m not sure how much regional/chain variance there is for DC vs horror

I remember when Scream 4 opened, I thought it would open to 40M+ In fact, I was even expecting a possible 50M OW. One of my most embarrasing predictions.

 

Since then, I refuse to raise my hopes too much with Scream.

 

That said, now we have more data, and Scream VI is in a privileged position to be the highest grosser of the saga.

[upriser7]

@Eric the Conqueror I was checking quorum data for upcoming movies this year and was surprised how low Oppenheimer's numbers were. We are still 5 months away but Oppenheimer's awareness is only tracking at 17% (Barbie is at 38%). Is 17% awareness considered a poor number for an Original movie 5 months out with trailer already being released ? Or is it normal ?

[keysersoze123]

52 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

@Eric the Conqueror I was checking quorum data for upcoming movies this year and was surprised how low Oppenheimer's numbers were. We are still 5 months away but Oppenheimer's awareness is only tracking at 17% (Barbie is at 38%). Is 17% awareness considered a poor number for an Original movie 5 months out with trailer already being released ? Or is it normal ?

Its too early to take Quorum as a gospel. It has not been shown to be reliable. Trailer view count for Oppenheimer is really good and it has an ensemble for sure. 

[Boxofficerules]

3 hours ago, M37 said:

At what point do we start to “believe” the tracking numbers for Scream VI? I can understand some hesitation with concern it could be a more fan-heavy/mature audience and so may not have the same final week growth as typical horror comps…

 

… but current sales coupled with the massive Quorum numbers, it sure looks to me like $50M+ OW (like $7M & 7x) is coming 

 

Note: Black Adam may be a decent comp to add for similar value but lower pace, though I’m not sure how much regional/chain variance there is for DC vs horror

Don’t want to be disappointed 

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, M37 said:

At what point do we start to “believe” the tracking numbers for Scream VI? I can understand some hesitation with concern it could be a more fan-heavy/mature audience and so may not have the same final week growth as typical horror comps…

 

… but current sales coupled with the massive Quorum numbers, it sure looks to me like $50M+ OW (like $7M & 7x) is coming 

 

┳┻| 
┳┻| 
┻┳|
┻┳| 
┳┻| 
┳┻| 
┻┳| 
┻┳| 
┳┻| 
┳┻| 
┻┳| 
┳┻| 
┻┳| 
┳┻| _ 
┻┳| •.•)   I've been a believer for about a week now.
┳┻|⊂ﾉ     
┻┳|

 

4 hours ago, M37 said:

Note: Black Adam may be a decent comp to add for similar value but lower pace, though I’m not sure how much regional/chain variance there is for DC vs horror

 

Funny you should mention that.  Been tracking BA on my home sheet, but...

 

	%		Sold T-18	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	126.74		34	374		0/74	11074/11448	3.27%		3951	12.00%		7.92m
Nope	184.44		4	257		0/84	13438/13695	1.88%		3822	12.40%		11.80m
BA	78.61		53	603		0/146	21460/22063	2.73%		4494	10.55%		5.97m

 

I think we're right at the point where Black Adam's inflationary start (this would be Day 4 of sales) is still mucking with things.  Day 5 had an insane amount of sales as well.

Did think about comping it, but I personally want to wait a few more days simply because BA is still kinda sorta in its fan rush of initial sales.

 

Edited February 20, 2023 by Porthos

[Verrows]

Too lazy to go find my post wherever it might be but I've been a believer in $50M+ since like January. Jenna Ortega's meteoric rise was the driving factor behind my initial prediction. We don't see rising stars like that too often anymore.

[Porthos]

@M37  FWIW, Scream VI's comp against Sonic 2 has been remarkably consistent the last few days:

 

Sonic 2
T-24:	11.57
T-23:	10.10
T-22:	9.45
T-21:	8.38
T-20:	8.00
T-19:	8.57
T-18:	7.92

 

at least once its own mini fan rush was over and Scream VI's head start was taken into account.  Say, T-21 or so.

 

Now a Sonic 2 comp only goes so far since that will have far more kids tickets sold, never mind the vast difference in 3D ticket sales (Sonic 2 had no 3D).  Still, when it comes to the shape of the pre-sale run, I've been noting the similarity the last few days with a small amount of interest.

 

Plus it's not like I have any other good comps since the only other recent horror comp I have, Nope, looks to be unsuitable for now, and I'm not in love with the idea of comping it against some of the other CBMs out there as everything recent [except for Black Adam which has already been discussed] is too damn big to be of use.   As for other comps, they either haven't started yet (T-17 being a popular time for movies to start) or are still too frontloaded to be of use right now (for instance, an A2 comp spits out 3.3m which... no)

 

More movies are starting to come into view which might be of interest.  But, ultimately, I personally don't track horror films all that often and as mentioned above the most recent one (Nope) has its own set of issues, given its absurdly long pre-sale window.

 

Still, all that being said, I'm very much a believer in Scream VI's start.  Only issue for me is:  Just how high will it go?

[Boxofficerules]

Didn’t Grace Randolph say Scream 6 was gonna bomb?

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Didn’t Grace Randolph say Scream 6 was gonna bomb?

 

More proof of a breakout coming, then.