The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[charlie Jatinder]

The question with Scream is how pre-sales heavy and how previews heavy it will be, because you don't see such growth randomly. There is clearly some abnormal factor helping it.

[GOGODanca]

43 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The question with Scream is how pre-sales heavy and how previews heavy it will be, because you don't see such growth randomly. There is clearly some abnormal factor helping it.

Jenna Ortega blowing up after Wednesday 

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Cocaine Bear	T-3	Jax	6	19	36	78	2,164	3.60%
		Phx	6	17	28	87	2,060	4.22%
		Ral	8	20	16	78	1,569	4.97%
	Total		20	56	80	243	5,793	4.19%
Creed III	T-10	Jax	5	26	68	68	3,960	1.72%
		Phx	6	16	60	60	2,534	2.37%
		Ral	8	21	63	63	2,743	2.30%
	Total		19	63	191	191	9,237	2.07%
Creed III (EA)	T-9	Jax	5	8	27	53	2,172	2.44%
		Phx	1	2	10	13	618	2.10%
		Ral	2	2	18	34	412	8.25%
	Total		8	12	55	100	3,202	3.12%
Creed III (Pre)	T-7	Jax	1	1	2	10	389	2.57%
	Total		1	1	2	10	389	2.57%
Demon Slayer 2	T-11	Jax	5	17	268	268	2,730	9.82%
OD		Phx	4	11	278	278	2,200	12.64%
		Ral	7	23	283	283	2,664	10.62%
	Total		16	51	829	829	7,594	10.92%
Fast X	T-87	Jax	5	54	4	101	7,982	1.27%
		Phx	6	20	5	86	3,534	2.43%
		Ral	8	46	2	85	7,930	1.07%
	Total		19	120	11	272	19,446	1.40%
Jesus Revolution	T-3	Jax	5	10	14	51	1,089	4.68%
		Phx	5	7	9	34	774	4.39%
		Ral	8	14	46	152	1,362	11.16%
	Total		18	31	69	237	3,225	7.35%
Jesus Rev (EA)	T-2	Jax	5	12	67	338	1,119	30.21%
		Phx	5	8	27	189	850	22.24%
		Ral	8	13	19	725	1,506	48.14%
	Total		18	33	113	1,252	3,475	36.03%
Scream VI	T-17	Jax	5	23	25	136	3,350	4.06%
		Phx	5	17	25	231	2,894	7.98%
		Ral	8	33	13	160	4,211	3.80%
	Total		18	73	63	527	10,455	5.04%
Shazam 2	T-24	Jax	5	56	20	51	9,734	0.52%
		Phx	6	29	39	82	6,134	1.34%
		Ral	8	53	31	93	7,666	1.21%
	Total		19	138	90	226	23,534	0.96%

*All new sales since Friday morning

 

Jesus Revolution T-3 comps (excluding EA)

 - Left Behind - .905x (552k)

 - I Wanna Dance - 1.185x (865k)

 - Chosen 3 Finale - .177x (296k)

 - Chosen 3  EP 1&2 - .116x (434k)

 

Jesus Revolution + EA comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - 1.675x (3.01m)

 - Left Behind - 5.68x (3.47m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 7.445x (5.43m)

 - Chosen 3 Finale - 1.113x (1.86m)

 - Chosen 3  EP 1&2 - .727x (2.73m)

 

Cocaine Bear T-3 comps

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.438x (2.084m)

 - Nope - .297x (1.904m)

 - Bullet Train - .56x (1.88m)

 - Violent Night - 2.132x (2.344m)

 

Creed III EA T-9 comps

 - NTTD EA - .719x (791k)

 - Elvis EA - missed

 

Creed III T-10 comps

 - Elvis - .752x (2.41m)

 - No Time to Die - .405x (2.1m)

 - Dune - .296x (1.51m)

 - F9 - .236x (1.68m)

 

Demon Slayer 2 T-11 comps

 - MHA - missed

 - JJK 0 - missed

 - Dragon Ball Z - 1.214x (5.22m)

 - Slime - missed

 

Scream VI T-17 comps

 - Nope - 1.889x (12.09m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 8.64x (12.53m)

 - Black Adam - 1.128x (8.58m)

 - Suicide Squad - 2.429x (9.96m)

 

Shazam 2 T-24 comps

 - Black Widow - .228x (3.01m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - .08x (1.42m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Cocaine Bear	T-2	Jax	6	19	22	100	2,164	4.62%
		Phx	6	19	47	134	2,200	6.09%
		Ral	8	24	10	88	2,023	4.35%
	Total		20	62	79	322	6,387	5.04%
Creed III	T-9	Jax	5	26	8	67	3,960	1.69%
		Phx	6	16	14	74	2,534	2.92%
		Ral	8	21	15	78	2,743	2.84%
	Total		19	63	37	219	9,237	2.37%
Creed III (EA)	T-8	Jax	5	8	7	60	2,172	2.76%
		Phx	1	2	0	13	618	2.10%
		Ral	2	2	0	34	412	8.25%
	Total		8	12	7	107	3,202	3.34%
Creed III (Pre)	T-6	Jax	1	1	0	10	389	2.57%
	Total		1	1	0	10	389	2.57%
Demon Slayer 2	T-10	Jax	5	17	18	286	2,730	10.48%
(OD)		Phx	4	13	27	305	2,412	12.65%
		Ral	7	23	27	310	2,664	11.64%
	Total		16	53	72	901	7,806	11.54%
Jesus Revolution	T-2	Jax	5	10	3	54	1,089	4.96%
		Phx	5	9	11	45	938	4.80%
		Ral	8	16	8	160	1,548	10.34%
	Total		18	35	22	259	3,575	7.24%
Jesus Rev (EA)	T-1	Jax	5	13	20	358	1,156	30.97%
		Phx	5	8	2	191	850	22.47%
		Ral	8	15	22	747	1,622	46.05%
	Total		18	36	44	1,296	3,628	35.72%
Scream VI	T-16	Jax	5	23	0	136	3,350	4.06%
		Phx	5	17	16	247	2,894	8.53%
		Ral	8	33	7	167	4,211	3.97%
	Total		18	73	23	550	10,455	5.26%
Shazam 2	T-23	Jax	5	56	5	56	9,734	0.58%
		Phx	6	29	3	85	6,134	1.39%
		Ral	8	53	3	96	7,666	1.25%
	Total		19	138	11	237	23,534	1.01%

 

Jesus Revolution T-2 comps (excluding EA)

 - Left Behind - .82x (500k)

 - I Wanna Dance - .985x (719k)

 - Chosen 3 Finale - .184x (307k)

 - Chosen 3  EP 1&2 - .12x (449k)

 

Jesus Revolution + EA comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - 1.534x (2.76m)

 - Left Behind - 4.921x (3m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 5.913x (4.316m)

 - Chosen 3 Finale - 1.105x (1.846m)

 - Chosen 3  EP 1&2 - .719x (2.7m)

 

Cocaine Bear T-2 comps

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.586x (2.3m)

 - Nope - .312x (1.997m)

 - Bullet Train - .613x (2.055m)

 - Violent Night - 2.105x (2.315m)

 - M3GAN - 1.47x (4.04m)

 

Creed III EA T-8 comps

 - NTTD EA - .686x (754k)

 - Bullet Train EA - 2.326x (2.91m)

 - Elvis EA - 1.486x (446k)

 

Creed III T-9 comps

 - Elvis - .768x (2.46m)

 - No Time to Die - .416x (2.16m)

 - Dune - .32x (1.63m)

 - F9 - .253x (1.8m)

 

Demon Slayer 2 T-10 comps

 - MHA - missed

 - JJK 0 - missed

 - Dragon Ball Z - 1.231x (5.3m)

 - Slime - missed

 

Scream VI T-16 comps

 - Nope - 1.884x (12.05m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 7.14x (10.36m)

 - Black Adam - .968x (7.36m)

 - Suicide Squad - 2.361x (9.68m)

 

Shazam 2 T-23 comps

 - Black Widow - .218x (2.88m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - .082x (1.43m)

 - Eternals - .31x (2.95m)

[TheFlatLannister]

8 hours ago, Eric the Conqueror said:

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-24 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	180	16243	1.11%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 12

 

Comp - T-24

0.152x of Black Widow (2.01M)

0.236x of Eternals (2.25M)

1.034x of Sonic 2 (6.46M)

0.135x of Jurassic World: Dominion (2.44M)

0.201x of Avatar: The Way of Water (3.41M)

0.054x of Ant-Man 3 (945K)

In the greater Tampa area, it's sold 0.7% of tickets...pretty crazy stuff for a CBM

 

Going to need banger reception to not flop 

[M37]

Looking back over some numbers this morning, some thoughts on comps, trackers do with this info what you will:

 

Scream VI - Nope is a pretty high end outlier in terms of late growth rate, in that the Peele Brand alone generated very little early sales, so those high comp values aren't likely to verify, nor other straight horror films. Probably ends up in the group below, the Black Adam/F9/maybe Sonic 2 range, though is possible it proves even more fan/early sale heavy in the JWD/Dune range

 

Shazam - kinda with @Porthos here, in that it isn't quite clear yet what these early sales (or rather lack of them) mean, other than there is no fan rush (perhaps because its mostly a soft launch, with little fanfare, against a $100M CBM opener and a holiday weekend - wtg WB!). Maybe its indicative of what it is to come, or perhaps the impending DCEU reset has turned Shazam 2 into just another generic action flick - similar to H&S as a F&F spin-off - and less brand heavy comps like Shang-Chi or Uncharted (?) might be more indicative of future trajectory once those are available

[filmlover]

Jesus Revolution opening higher than Cocaine Bear would be both hilarious and yet not entirely surprising at the same time.

[filmlover]

BTW here's the updated list from AMC's website for the upcoming titles getting Dolby Cinema treatment through late July:

 

3/3: Creed III

3/10: Scream VI, 65

3/17: Shazam! Fury of the Gods

3/24: John Wick: Chapter 4

3/31: Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

4/7: The Super Mario Bros. Movie

4/21: Guy Ritchie's The Covenant

5/5: Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3

5/19: Fast X

5/26: The Little Mermaid

6/2: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

6/9: Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

6/16: The Flash, Elemental

6/30: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

7/14: Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One

7/21: Oppenheimer, Barbie

 

New Movies, Theaters Near You, Movie Tickets, Showtimes, Movie Trailers, Movies in Theaters (amctheatres.com)

[vafrow]

28 minutes ago, M37 said:

Looking back over some numbers this morning, some thoughts on comps, trackers do with this info what you will:

 

Scream VI - Nope is a pretty high end outlier in terms of late growth rate, in that the Peele Brand alone generated very little early sales, so those high comp values aren't likely to verify, nor other straight horror films. Probably ends up in the group below, the Black Adam/F9/maybe Sonic 2 range, though is possible it proves even more fan/early sale heavy in the JWD/Dune range

 

Shazam - kinda with @Porthos here, in that it isn't quite clear yet what these early sales (or rather lack of them) mean, other than there is no fan rush (perhaps because its mostly a soft launch, with little fanfare, against a $100M CBM opener and a holiday weekend - wtg WB!). Maybe its indicative of what it is to come, or perhaps the impending DCEU reset has turned Shazam 2 into just another generic action flick - similar to H&S as a F&F spin-off - and less brand heavy comps like Shang-Chi or Uncharted (?) might be more indicative of future trajectory once those are available

 

Has there been trailers ahead of Antman for Shazam? I ask, because here in Ontario, I didn't get any ads for it. However, there's also no advance sales for it here yet.

 

If it's being advertised ahead of a$100M opening fil, and still not seeing decent sales, that's a bad sign. That said, if WB is not advertising it ahead of a film with a big audience overlap, that's also not a good sign either.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, vafrow said:

 

Has there been trailers ahead of Antman for Shazam? I ask, because here in Ontario, I didn't get any ads for it. However, there's also no advance sales for it here yet.

 

If it's being advertised ahead of a$100M opening fil, and still not seeing decent sales, that's a bad sign. That said, if WB is not advertising it ahead of a film with a big audience overlap, that's also not a good sign either.

I got the Flash trailer before my Ant-Man showing over the weekend so I'm guessing that's WB's attachment with the movie.

[The Wild Eric]

7 hours ago, datpepper said:

Regarding Jesus Revolution, it should be noted that Lionsgate was giving out a lot of free tickets for those Early Access shows, which is possibly why they're as packed as they are. They might not be as indicative of how the movie will play out over the weekend, or what audience interest in general might be in the title, as they might seem (although I'm sure the following weekend showtimes prove that already).

That's stupid. Now I'm not gonna track it.

[keysersoze123]

This is called free fan shows and we got excited seeing this early sales. Instead of spending money on marketing they are just giving free tickets to the movie. I dont think its going to gross anything at all this weekend. 

[charlie Jatinder]

7 hours ago, datpepper said:

Regarding Jesus Revolution, it should be noted that Lionsgate was giving out a lot of free tickets for those Early Access shows, which is possibly why they're as packed as they are. They might not be as indicative of how the movie will play out over the weekend, or what audience interest in general might be in the title, as they might seem (although I'm sure the following weekend showtimes prove that already).

was that only for previews or rest of weekend as well? because sales are good for weekend as well.

[TwoMisfits]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

This is called free fan shows and we got excited seeing this early sales. Instead of spending money on marketing they are just giving free tickets to the movie. I dont think its going to gross anything at all this weekend. 

 

Technically for a lot of people, the shows still weren't "free", but more "highly reduced", since I think it only offset $14 of the cost and it did not pay the Fandango fee (so this is more like an early T-Mobile Atom $4-$5 ticket deal all-in vs "free" tickets)...still, it always help pop presales when they happen...

 

I'm not sure what the "limit" was either, b/c I wasn't interested in the deal so didn't pay attention to it...

Edited February 21, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[vafrow]

27 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I got the Flash trailer before my Ant-Man showing over the weekend so I'm guessing that's WB's attachment with the movie.

 

Assuming you're in a region where tickets are up for sale, that's pretty disappointing.

 

It's hard to see where WB will be willing to advertise this film if they haven't taken some of the easy options.

 

Black Adam was a flawed film, but, it at least had a genuine movie star that was promoting the film like crazy in the weeks leading up to it. He was showing up everywhere to promote advance screenings of the film. He was all over social media. The man knows how to work a promo tour.

 

There's nothing comparable at all behind this film that could drive ticket sales like that.

[The Wild Eric]

Quorum Updates

65 T-18: 24.41% Awareness, 5.80 Interest

Beau is Afraid T-60: 9.94%, 4.47

Dune Part Two T-256: 27.77%, 5.02

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes T-270: 38.7%, 5.98

 

Cocaine Bear T-4: 46.86% Awareness, 6.14 Interest

Final Awareness: 86% chance of 10M, 54% chance of 30M

Final Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 89% chance of 30M

Original - Low Awareness: 100% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 100% chance of 10M

 

Jesus Revolution T-4: 20.91% Awareness, 4.91 Interest

Final Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 20% chance of 10M
Original - Low Awareness: 43% chance of 5M, 14% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 18% chance of 5M, 0% chance of 10M

 

Creed III T-11: 56.1% Awareness, 6.34 Interest

Final Awareness: 75% chance of 30M, 50% chance of 40M, 33% chance of 50M, 25% chance of 60M

Final Interest: 89% chance of 30M, 74% chance of 40M, 58% chance of 50M, 53% chance of 60M

 

Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre T-11: 21.68% Awareness, 4.55 Interest

Final Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 20% chance of 10M
Original - Low Awareness: 43% chance of 5M, 14% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 18% chance of 5M, 0% chance of 10M

 

Big George Foreman T-67: 19.61% Awareness, 5.15 Interest

T-60 Awareness: 26% chance of 10M

T-60 Interest: 71% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 43% chance of 5M, 28% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 71% chance of 5M, 57% chance of 10M

[John2015]

3 hours ago, GOGODanca said:

Jenna Ortega blowing up after Wednesday 

In the TV spots, Jenna Ortega clearly has much more screentime than others.

[Tinalera]

Scream 6 (T-17)

Vancouver and Calgary Canada

Thurs Mar 9 and Fri Mar 10

 

Vancouve	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
	3	10	91	2033	2124	0.0428
	3	17	27	3851	3878	0.0069
Calgary	4	10	21	2191	2212	0.0094
	4	17	28	3857	3885	0.0072

 

Just a reminder and Caveat that Canada can be quirky it seems with Horror, no 2 horror films are always alike. And Presales for Horror in Canada (from what Ive seen) anything outside of T-7 isn't always representative of how the film is going to do. Still we all like data, and any data is good   Still in "building up data" phase, as any previous horror comps I have are from Toronto only. 

 

Also my reminder that Canada BO counts are based on per theatre basis and availability-there are still many theatres in Canada that don't even have pre-sales availability at the moment because they haven't unlocked seats yet. For example Vancouver area literally has 3 theatres, but Calgary area has like 7 I think, but I am only putting 4 to try and keep the counts comparable. 

Yes Canada is a different beast alright....

Edited February 21, 2023 by Tinalera

[misterpepp]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

was that only for previews or rest of weekend as well? because sales are good for weekend as well.

Think it was just EA, but not 100% certain.

 

If sales are still strong through the weekend, that’s a good sign. Just didn’t want anyone thinking it was going too high based solely on how the EA is doing.

Edited February 21, 2023 by datpepper

[misterpepp]

65 and John Wick 4 tix seem like they’ll be on sale March 1.

[Boxofficerules]

2 minutes ago, datpepper said:

65 and John Wick 4 tix seem like they’ll be on sale March 1.

65 buzz already seems MIA.