The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[charlie Jatinder]

Jesus looks to me like $1M+ previews from Harkins. @keysersoze123 can you run it?

[charlie Jatinder]

Cocaine Bear looks like $1.8-2M

[GOGODanca]

What kind of IM is Cocaine Bear looking at tracking wise?

[keysersoze123]

20 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Jesus looks to me like $1M+ previews from Harkins. @keysersoze123 can you run it?

Jesus Revolution MTC1 previews - 13680/83264 174138.26 744 shows

 

Does not look like 1m to me. Probably 700K if it broke out in smaller markets. That said its "previews" are colored by how many free tickets they gave away. So who knows what we will see. 

[keysersoze123]

Cocaine Bear MTC1 previews -40526/169219 574773.28 1366 shows

 

I agree with @charlie Jatinder range above. Its does not have enough PLF and i expect it to overperform at MTC1.

[El Squibbonator]

3 hours ago, Firepower said:

Shazam had the same test-screening scores as Black Adam. And if recent rumors are true, the movie is not good and WB decided to not spend money on reshoots they wrote and scheduled, and spend those money elsewhere instead. WB just wrote it off.

At the very least, Shazam's budget is a lot lower than Black Adam's ($120 million compared to $200 million+), so even if it ends up performing the same, it might not necessarily be a major flop. 

[keysersoze123]

Cocaine Bear Friday Final Presales - 33066/349271 466142.40 2630 shows

 

I am posting this as my data earlier today for friday was incorrect. That was Jesus Revolution Friday. Anyway it had good walkups today and I think 7-8m friday including previews can happen. Probably targeting mid to high teens and may be even squeeze by 20m if it over performs over the weekend. 

[misterpepp]

Think Jesus Revolution has a very good shot at getting an A+ CinemaScore. Verified RT audience score still sitting at 100% after 250+ ratings.

[Eric is Quiet]

On 2/22/2023 at 11:38 PM, Eric Bear said:

Creed III Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	68	615	14223	4.32%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 54

 

Comp - T-8

0.614x of F9 (4.36M)

0.653x of No Time to Die (4.12M)

0.911x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (4.1M)

0.774x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (4.65M)

1.361x of Nope (8.71M)

0.666x of Black Adam (5.06M)

0.247x of Avatar 2 (4.2M)

Creed III Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	68	715	14223	5.03%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 100

 

Comp - T-7

0.678x of F9 (4.81M)

0.677x of No Time to Die (4.26M)

0.997x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (4.49M)

0.803x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (4.82M)

1.450x of Nope (9.28M)

0.693x of Black Adam (5.26M)

0.265x of Avatar 2 (4.5M)

[Eric is Quiet]

On 2/22/2023 at 11:48 PM, Eric Bear said:

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	655	8200	7.99%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 23

 

Comp - T-15

2.382x of Scream (8.34M)

2.290x of Nope (14.66M)

1.650x of Halloween Ends (8.91M)

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	667	8200	8.13%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 12

 

Comp - T-14

2.349x of Scream (8.22M)

2.097x of Nope (13.42M)

1.416x of Halloween Ends (7.65M)

[Eric is Quiet]

On 2/22/2023 at 11:54 PM, Eric Bear said:

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-22 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	195	16243	1.20%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1

 

Comp - T-22

0.145x of Black Widow (1.91M)

1.681x of The Suicide Squad (6.89M)

0.195x of Eternals (1.85M)

0.684x of Sonic 2 (4.28M)

0.141x of Jurassic World: Dominion (2.54M)

0.161x of Avatar: The Way of Water (2.74M)

0.056x of Ant-Man 3 (973K)

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	211	16243	1.30%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 16

 

Comp - T-21

0.149x of Black Widow (1.97M)

1.287x of The Suicide Squad (5.27M)

0.193x of Eternals (1.83M)

0.668x of Sonic 2 (4.17M)

0.151x of Jurassic World: Dominion (2.72M)

0.058x of Ant-Man 3 (1.02M)

[Eric is Quiet]

On 2/17/2023 at 12:54 AM, Eric Bear said:

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-91 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	83	246	17734	1.39%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 5

 

Not gonna track this until next Thursday. Feels nice to have some peace and quiet.

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-84 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	83	274	17734	1.55%

 

Total Seats Sold This Week: 28

[Porthos]

On 2/23/2023 at 12:04 AM, Porthos said:

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	68	7268	7888	620	7.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

91

 

T-15 Comp

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Morbius	113.35		62	547		0/127	18228/18775	2.91%		3477	17.83%		6.46m
Sonic 2	134.78		33	460		0/76	11206/11666	3.94%		3951	15.69%		8.42m
Nope	198.72		12	312		0/86	13383/13695	2.28%		3822	16.22%		12.72m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        105/2624  [4.00% sold]
Matinee:        50/687  [7.28% | 8.06% of all tickets sold]
3D:            292/2638  [11.07% | 47.10% of all tickets sold]

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	70	7662	8318	656	7.89%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	430
Total Seats Sold Today	36

 

T-14 Comp

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Morbius	104.46		81	628		0/127	18147/18775	3.34%		3477	18.87%		5.95m
Sonic 2	130.16		44	504		0/76	11162/11666	4.32%		3951	16.60%		8.13m
Nope	186.89		39	351		0/86	13344/13695	2.56%		3822	17.16%		11.96m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        107/2624  [4.08% sold]
Matinee:       50/687  [7.28% | 7.62% of all tickets sold]
3D:            307/2853  [10.76% | 46.80% of all tickets sold]

Edited February 25, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 2/20/2023 at 12:11 AM, Porthos said:

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-88 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	156	23222	23624	402	1.70%

 

 

Total Seats Sold Since Tuesday

35

 

BREAKDOWN

  Reveal hidden contents

T-92:	11
T-91:	14
T-90:	0
T-89:	11
T-88:	-1

 

 

0.86567x F9 (2020) at T-88 at the equivalent sources of tracking.    [???m]

 

Regal:     69/8019  [0.86% sold]
Matinee:    9/2638  [0.34% | 2.24% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Next update will be on Thursday.

 

 Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-84 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	156	23200	23621	421	1.78%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Sunday

19

 

 

BREAKDOWN

Spoiler

 

T-87:	7
T-86:	3
T-85:	3
T-84:	6

 

 

0.86288x F9 (2020) at T-88 at the equivalent sources of tracking.    [???m]

 

Regal:      70/8019  [0.87% sold]
Matinee:    9/2638  [0.34% | 2.14% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Next update will be next Thursday.

[stripe]

So possible 17-20M OW range for Cocaine Bear and 10-13M for Jesus Revolution, right?

Sounds like solid openings for both

[Firepower]

4 hours ago, El Squibbonator said:

At the very least, Shazam's budget is a lot lower than Black Adam's ($120 million compared to $200 million+), so even if it ends up performing the same, it might not necessarily be a major flop. 

I mean Black Adam result would be an improvement over Shazam 1, but it's very unlikely to happen at this point.

[Firepower]

5 hours ago, ViewerAnon said:

SHAZAM 2 absolutely completed reshoots.

Well, that rumor is not true in this case. But if it got the same test-screening scores as Black Adam (as reported by trades), it's definitely not encouraging.

Edited February 24, 2023 by Firepower

[vafrow]

4 hours ago, El Squibbonator said:

At the very least, Shazam's budget is a lot lower than Black Adam's ($120 million compared to $200 million+), so even if it ends up performing the same, it might not necessarily be a major flop. 

 

The tracking right now is pointing to a lower opening. Shazam is probably looking at making half the opening weekend. And even that feels shaky.

 

It's facing tougher competition as well, so total outlook isn't great right now.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 2/17/2023 at 8:30 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Ant-Man 3	3,683	191,032		147,834		43,198	5,596	27,297
Magic Mike 3	2,665	34,306	14.61%	34,233	240.52	73	0	0
80 for Brady	2,704	32,309	-29.26%	32,244	126.99	65	0	0
Knock at the Cabin	2,290	28,513	-36.21%	28,473	121.38	40	0	0
Puss in Boots 2	2,657	27,326	-16.82%	27,182	169.85	144	0	68
Marlowe	2,126	26,363		26,302		61	0	0
Avatar 2	2,303	22,083	-30.57%	7,420	226.94	14,663	6	14,637
Titanic 25 Year	1,891	15,285	-34.56%	0	241.31	15,285	0	15,285
A Man Called Otto	1,358	9,904	-57.60%	9,873	111.40	31	0	0
Missing	1,260	9,216	-56.88%	9,213	119.40	3	0	0
M3GAN	1,255	8,414	-64.21%	8,409	102.60	5	0	0
Plane	505	3,028	-76.74%	3,028	92.51	0	0	0
The Amazing Maurice	402	2,596	-78.41%	2,593		3	0	0
Winnie-the-Pooh	405	1,843		1,843		0	0	0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 2/17 Weekend

OW Showtimes Comps

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - 191,032 (3,683 TC)

 - No Way Home - 206,421 (3,340)

 - Thor 4 - 194,969 (3,540)

 - Batman - 171,959 (3,553)

 - Top Gun - 182,709 (3,834)

 - Avatar 2 - 193,730 (3,567)

 - Black Panther 2 - 222,802 (3,599)

Marlowe (3-Day) - 26,363 (2,126 TC)

 - Father Stu - 27,690 (2,358)

 - She Said - 26,575 (1,863)

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

Jesus Revolution EA - 2,926 (1,890)

 - Downton Abbey EA - 2,601 (2,561)

Jesus Revolution - 22,173 (1,873 TC)

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 22,666 (2,163)

 - Massive Talent - 21,853 (1,815)

 - The 355 - 21,633 (1,838)

 - Ron's Gone Wrong - 21,967 (1,984)

Cocaine Bear - 33,501 (2,362 TC)

 - Halloween Kills - 32,962 (2,343)

 - Jackass Forever - 32,919 (2,445)

 - Death on the Nile - 33,327 (2,240)

Emily - 4,185 (355 TC)

 - Belfast - 3,960 (326)

 - Spirited - 3,793 (282)

 

 

T-2 Week Showtimes Comps

Creed III (2/27 IMAX) - 47 (47 TC)

Creed III (EA) - 1,126 (889 TC)

 - Top Gun EA - 970 (932)

Creed III - 3,817 (1,486 TC)

 - Violent Night - 3,755 (1,511)

 - Babylon - 3,851 (1,769)

Demon Slayer (OD) - 3,868 (1,401 TC)

 

T-3 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Scream VI - 6,748 (2,192 TC)

 - No Time to Die - 7,191 (1,520)

 - Lost City - 5,334 (1,929)

 - Dragon Ball Super - 6,877 (2,065)

 

T-4 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Shazam 2 - 8,326 (1,558)

 - Nope - 7,792 (1,976)

 

T-13 Week Previews Showtimes

Fast X - 9,320 (1,852 TC)

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Ant-Man 3	3,478	112,354	-29.08%	85,507	555.45	26,847	3,924	15,887
Cocaine Bear	3,100	63,893		62,210		1,683	0	0
Jesus Revolution	2,277	39,652		39,570		82	0	0
Magic Mike 3	2,487	25,088	-26.87%	25,046	158.36	42	0	0
Puss in Boots 2	2,449	22,707	-16.90%	22,629	195.33	78	0	48
80 for Brady	2,141	20,770	-35.71%	20,734	116.15	36	0	0
Avatar 2	2,149	19,120	-13.42%	5,365	296.63	13,755	9	13,734
Knock at the Cabin	1,877	17,510	-38.59%	17,486	139.34	24	0	0
Marlowe	2,050	10,170	-61.42%	10,151	68.72	19	0	0
Emily	536	6,596		6,587		9	0	0
A Man Called Otto	853	6,191	-37.49%	6,166	161.60	25	0	0
Missing	808	6,020	-34.68%	6,020	189.64	0	0	0
M3GAN	673	4,598	-45.35%	4,598	190.21	0	0	0
Titanic 25 Year	819	4,239	-72.27%	4,230	157.68	9	0	0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 2/24 Weekend

OW Showtimes Comps

Jesus Revolution EA - 2,926 (1,890)

Jesus Revolution - 39,652 (2,277 TC)

 - Respect - 40,541 (2,876)

 - Massive Talent - 39,439 (2,708)

 - House of Gucci - 38,900 (2,933)

Cocaine Bear - 63,893 (3,100 TC)

 - Snake Eyes - 64,832 (3,008)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 65,207 (3,216)

 - Smile - 60,493 (3,169)

Emily - 6,596 (536 TC)

 - The Contractor - 6,356 (478)

 - Emily the Criminal - 6,665 (454)

 - On the Come Up - 6,680 (519)

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

Creed III (2/27 IMAX) - 47 (47 TC)

Creed III (EA) - 1,188 (945 TC)

 - Top Gun Tues EA - 1,008 (942)

 - Sing EA - 1,100 (1,100)

 - Puss in Boots EA - 992 (992)

Creed III - 48,260 (2,518 TC)

 - Dune - 45,388 (2,771)

 - Uncharted - 50,667 (2,672)

 - Nope - 52,246 (2,594)

Demon Slayer - 13,320 (1,513 TC)

 - Cry Macho - 12,371 (1,305)

 - Slime - 13,804 (1,302)

 - Studio 666 - 13,939 (1,254)

Operation Fortune - 15,881 (1,272 TC)

 - CopShop - 16,693 (1,519)

 - Bones and All - 15,213 (1,310)

 - Devotion - 15,281 (1,334)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Scream VI - 6,937 (2,271 TC)

 - Halloween Ends - 7,934 (2,126)

 - Uncharted - 7,459 (2,177)

 - Dragon Ball Super - 7,254 (2,180)

Champions - 1,845 (1,276 TC)

 - X - 1,829 (1,297)

 - The 355 - 1,846 (1,191)

 

T-3 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Shazam 2 - 10,850 (2,193 TC)

 - Black Adam - 10,710 (1,868)

 - Eternals - 8,959 (2,267)

 

T-12 Week Previews Showtimes

Fast X - 13,630 (2,237 TC)

[el sid]

Creed III, counted yesterday for Thursday, Mar 2:

 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7):  111 (2 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 81 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 3 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (1 showtime)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 15 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 69 (7 showtimes) 
LA (AMC Universal): 138 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 417. 

 

Comp: Woman King (1.7M from previews) had on Monday of its release week 148 sold tickets in 5 theaters.
I have to search for more and better comps.

 

Creed III, counted yesterday for Friday, Mar 3:

 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 100 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 53 (11 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 22 (7 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 3 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 15 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 67 (11 showtimes) 
LA (AMC Universal): 106 (14 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 366. 

 

Comps: The Woman King (19.1M OW) had on Monday of the release week 155 sold tickets in 6 theaters,
F9 (70M) had also on Monday of its release week 1.656 sold tickets
and King Richard (5.4M) finally (= on Thursday for Friday) had 283 sold tickets.

 

Well, the sales didn't explode in my theaters but these are very very solid numbers. I guess it could ca. double its sales till Monday and reach ca. ½ of the sales of F9.