The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mario MTC1 Sat - 402506/1695402 5677818.34 10284 shows

 

Really good presales. Walkups will be hopefully even better than today where the Friday finished at 790521 from above PS. That would be huge. I dont think I have ever seen any movie have 500K walkups so far. Can this movie do it? Could take this to 60m saturday !!!. But I am hopeful that even if evening slow down more than usual I expect saturday to be higher than friday. 

I think ~825-830K range final. Gross wise growth will be smallish. 2-5% growth.

[Goldenhour36]

Renfield (T-7)- 

 

Rotten Tomatoes (Want to See)- (426) 

 

Comps 

The Pope's Exorcist (T-7)-(162) 

 

Movie Insider (Will See)- (154) 

 

Comps 

The Pope's Exorcist (T-7)-(131) 

 

Total Combined- (580) 

 

Comps 

The Pope's Exorcist (T-7)-(293) 

 

 

 

[Goldenhour36]

The Pope's Exorcist (T-7)- 

 

Rotten Tomatoes (Want to See)- (162) 

 

Comps 

Renfield (T-7)- (426) 

 

Movie Insider (Will See)- (131) 

 

Comps 

Renfield (T-7)- (154) 

 

Total Combined- (293) 

 

Comps 

Renfield (T-7) (580)  

 

[Goldenhour36]

Sweetwater (T-7)- 

 

Rotten Tomatoes (Want to See)- (39) 

 

No Comps 

 

Movie Insider (Will See)- (39) 

 

No Comps 

 

Total Combined-(78) 

 

No Comps 

[Goldenhour36]

Suzume (T-7)- 

 

Rotten Tomatoes (Want to See)-(199) 

 

No Comps 

 

Movie Insider (Will See)-(18) 

 

No Comps 

 

Total Combined-(217) 

 

No Comps 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-28 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	205	27105	29568	2463	8.33%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

112

 

T-28 Comps:

	%		Sold T-28	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	33.27		654	7403		0/329	33513/40916	18.09%		21117	11.66%		11.98m
BP2	46.65		139	5280		1/294	31742/37022	14.26%		16800	14.66%		13.06m
AM3	74.98		227	3285		0/231	29080/32365	10.15%		10475	23.51%		13.12m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     428/11075  [3.86% sold]
Matinee:    71/3555  [2.00% | 2.88% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

With the shift to T-x, the BP2 comp took a huge hit, as expected.  Nothing else to add that hasn't been said over and over... and over again.

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-27 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	206	27114	29671	2557	8.62%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	103
Total Seats Sold Today	94

 

T-28 Comps:

	%		Sold T-27	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	32.69		419	7822		0/329	33094/40916	19.12%		21117	12.11%		11.77m
BP2	47.39		116	5396		1/294	31623/37019	14.58%		16800	15.22%		13.27m
AM3	74.74		136	3421		0/235	29108/32529	10.52%		10475	24.41%		13.08m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       447/11075  [4.04% sold]
Matinee:      78/3555  [2.19% | 3.05% of all tickets sold]
3D:            240/5522  [4.35% | 9.39% of all tickets sold]

[JimmyB]

Looking back at the Ant-man 3 tracking posts. January 30th is when M37 made a great case that all was not great with Ant-man 3's sales. By, February 9th it seemed like the majority could see the disappointing numbers coming and keysersoze123 put out an OW closer to $110m than $130m.

 

My point is, When is it time to really worry about these GOTG 3 numbers? Now? The comps to recent MCU films are just...so low.

[Menor the Destroyer]

13 minutes ago, JimmyB said:

Looking back at the Ant-man 3 tracking posts. January 30th is when M37 made a great case that all was not great with Ant-man 3's sales. By, February 9th it seemed like the majority could see the disappointing numbers coming and keysersoze123 put out an OW closer to $110m than $130m.

 

My point is, When is it time to really worry about these GOTG 3 numbers? Now? The comps to recent MCU films are just...so low.

Yes now.

[Tinalera]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

you dont have comps with Antman?

Not for this far out. Antman was where I was still starting Canadawide thing and was still organizing. 

 

EDIT:

I did a couple of early Shazam days, heres my earliest Shazam (for what thats worth lol) (T-21)

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouve	Thurs	3	18	8	3892	3900	0.0020
	Fri	3	22	15	4977	4992	0.0030

 

Ill start having a few comps when we get into 2 weeks worth, but Im going to do some early GOTGs for future data. 

Edited April 8, 2023 by Tinalera

[keysersoze123]

Marvel is dumping lots of content around Guardians 3 and Gunn is so attached to it and makes the project quite interesting. This is the movie I must admit I am looking forward to after a string of MCU movies where I had little excitement towards. That said GA seem to say I would rather decide close to release or worse wait for it to hit streaming. May be the new normal of Disney+ release being really late(like 4+ months hopefully) could push folks to still check it out after it releases if the reviews are great. 

 

That said for previews/OW, MCU should pull in its premier and let reactions and even reviews out early. That used to be the norm. Look at a movie like Civil War. That was a finale at Avengers level and reviews were out 3 weeks before release. 

 

Edited April 8, 2023 by keysersoze123

[Inceptionzq]

On 4/6/2023 at 9:14 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 Megaplex [+2 days of sales]

 

T-28 Thursday(107 showings): 1337(+201)/30240

0.783x Ant-Man 3 T-28 (13.70M)

 

T-29 Friday(172 showings): 779(+207)/49844

1.01x Ant-Man 3 T-29 (29.08M)

 

T-30 Saturday(173 showings): 501(+76)/48826

0.811x Ant-Man 3 T-30 (27.48M)

 

T-31 Sunday(172 showings): 158(+57)/49209

0.958x Ant-Man 3 T-31 (24.68M)

 

Numbers are from a few hours ago

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 Megaplex

 

T-27 Thursday(110 showings): 1423(+86)/30691

 

T-28 Friday(176 showings): 862(+83)/50446

 

T-29 Saturday(177 showings): 537(+36)/49428

 

T-30 Sunday(176 showings): 186(+28)/49811

 

Data is from yesterday evening

[Inceptionzq]

On 4/6/2023 at 9:21 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 Drafthouse [+2 days of sales]

 

T-28 Thursday(229 showings): 6559(+976)/33618 ATP: $15.75

0.931x Ant-Man 3 T-28 (16.30M)

0.663x Black Panther WF T-28 (18.56M)

 

T-29 Friday(337 showings): 4427(+850)/50022 ATP: $15.74

0.917x Ant-Man 3 T-29 (26.53M)

0.449x Black Panther WF T-29 (25.26M)

 

T-30 Saturday(349 showings): 4988(+1074)/51794 ATP: $14.90

1.16x Ant-Man 3 T-30 (35.70M)

0.618x Black Panther WF T-30 (34.68M)

 

T-31 Sunday(323 showings): 2235(+542)/47784 ATP: $14.41

1.32x Ant-Man 3 T-31 (34.01M)

0.560x Black Panther WF T-31 (22.90M)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 Drafthouse

 

T-27 Thursday(229 showings): 6902(+343)/33618 ATP: $15.75

 

T-28 Friday(337 showings): 4774(+347)/50022 ATP: $15.71

 

T-29 Saturday(349 showings): 5427(+439)/51794 ATP: $14.90

 

T-30 Sunday(323 showings): 2459(+224)/47784 ATP: $14.34

 

Data from yesterday evening

[M37]

On 4/3/2023 at 4:36 PM, Porthos said:

BTW, been meaning to mention this, but in addition to probably losing @katnisscinnaplex recently, @M37 hasn't logged in in a while.

 

Hope you're just taking a break, M37, and still lurking here as your analysis/insight was and is always welcome.

 

I sincerely appreciate those who noticed and even worried about my absence - at least I know my ramblings aren't just disappearing into the ether of the internet

 

So just to be clear, nothing "happened" on here or IRL; I was taking what was originally planned to be little break/backing off, just not enough time nor brain space to keep up with tracking and gorge on college basketball. But then as the days passed, even when I had the time I just ... didn't come back? Not just to the forum (even as a lurker), but for the first time in - I dunno, 15 years (?) - stopped paying attention to box office numbers altogether.

 

So I'm not "lost", but also wouldn't say I'm "back." Just more ... around, at least for now. Missed out on a pretty eventual month it seems though

[GOGODanca]

6 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-27 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	206	27114	29671	2557	8.62%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	103
Total Seats Sold Today	94

 

T-28 Comps:

	%		Sold T-27	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	32.69		419	7822		0/329	33094/40916	19.12%		21117	12.11%		11.77m
BP2	47.39		116	5396		1/294	31623/37019	14.58%		16800	15.22%		13.27m
AM3	74.74		136	3421		0/235	29108/32529	10.52%		10475	24.41%		13.08m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       447/11075  [4.04% sold]
Matinee:      78/3555  [2.19% | 3.05% of all tickets sold]
3D:            240/5522  [4.35% | 9.39% of all tickets sold]

IIRC Quantumania was selling like 11% 3D, interesting that GotG3 is so much lower, looks like the shine on that wore off quick

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, JimmyB said:

Looking back at the Ant-man 3 tracking posts. January 30th is when M37 made a great case that all was not great with Ant-man 3's sales. By, February 9th it seemed like the majority could see the disappointing numbers coming and keysersoze123 put out an OW closer to $110m than $130m.

 

My point is, When is it time to really worry about these GOTG 3 numbers? Now? The comps to recent MCU films are just...so low.

 

3 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:

Yes now.

 

I'd have to agree with our resident Car'a'carn.  I won't quite press the panic button, but... Well, let me give y'all a peak behind the curtain locally.

 

I track 18 different theaters from four different chains/outfits at the seat level (and 21/5 when non-reserved seating is factored in) and by pure happenstance roughly half of my expected sales occurs at around the ninth or tenth theater I track.  Used to be ninth but with Cinemark Roseville being >>> than Century Roseville (which it replaced), it's dragged my expected 50/50 share somewhere in the middle to the end of the tenth theater I track.  Roughly, that is.  More sort of an internal benchmark.

 

Well, last night GOTG3 had sold 20 tickets after theater #9 and 27 tickets after theater #10, meaning I was expecting around a 50 to 60 seat night for a good portion of my track, which would have been... no bueno.  As it turned out, it had a relatively strong back half which dragged it up to 94 tickets sold.  

 

Now one way to look at this (and probably the correct L1 take) is that random distribution is random and searching for deeper meaning is a bit of a fool's errand.  More a curiosity than anything else.  A second way of looking at this is that this could or maybe even should have been 125 to 150 seats sold day if distribution was more like I expected.  Or perhaps an 80 seats sold day if I compensate a bit for front half/back half discrepancies.

 

But I think the real meaning is: This is just underperforming in some theaters where I absolutely don't expect it to.  And I'm not even sure I can point to a clear demo split like urban versus suburban vs exurban or chain or anything else.  I mean, there does appear to be a very weak urban/suburban|exurban split, but even in places where it should be doing well on the urban side, it isn't.

 

Now there is still time for this to recover.  On the other hand, for every Let There Be Carnage or Minions 2 which has an unexpected/atypically strong for the genre backloaded pre-sale run, there's five or six Solos or Lightyears, where it just stays flat as a pancake.

 

So I ain't writing this off yet.  Then again.... 

 

 

is probably the best gif to sum up the current situation.

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, GOGODanca said:

IIRC Quantumania was selling like 11% 3D, interesting that GotG3 is so much lower, looks like the shine on that wore off quick

 

Well.... 9% vs 11% isn't that much of a difference (you might be conflating the 4% number [which tracks percentage of 3D seats sold] with the 9% number [which tracks the overall 2D/3D split of all ticket sales), and is probably just another sign of GOTG3 underperforming in some theaters.

 

But might be something to keep an eye on at the margins. 

[GOGODanca]

18 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Well.... 9% vs 11% isn't that much of a difference (you might be conflating the 4% number [which tracks percentage of 3D seats sold] with the 9% number [which tracks the overall 2D/3D split of all ticket sales), and is probably just another sign of GOTG3 underperforming in some theaters.

 

But might be something to keep an eye on at the margins. 

yeah i mixed up the 4% and 9%

[MattW]

I'll guess that after the mario rush is over, thur/fri coming up, gotg will rise somewhat relative to comps. Maybe not much but at least a little.

[keysersoze123]

On 4/7/2023 at 11:12 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3

MTC1 Wed - 2947/17472 136655.00 58 shows

MTC1 Thursday - 80487/1147361 1454153.37 7012 shows

Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3

MTC1 Wed - 3100/17472 143700.00 58 shows

MTC1 Thursday - 82462/1145988 1487640.74 6996 shows +1975

MTC1 Friday - 40880/1266391 758855.80 6857 shows (sold 1371 tickets over past day)

 

Just MTC1 for now. 

[JayPrimetown]

Living in South Florida, would love to track some theaters down here. For those that do tracking, any tips on the best way to do this? 

Is it picking out a set of theaters, adding up the showings, total seats available, and total seats booked? Is there a preference to tracking preview day or the actual opening day? Any tips would be appreciated!