The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[reddevil19]

I mean... shit. If GOTG3 opens under 130 million, then finishing with less than 300 dom becomes a possibility even if it's well-received, I feel like. And looking at the upcoming slate for the MCU. Ouch. They need to can each and every Disney+ show, make Blade a mid-budget R rated flick, hope Deadpool 3 delivers, put everything else not actively in production on ice and switch focus on the X-Men for 2025/2026. At this rate, their Avengers films are fucked, as they don't have anyone to anchor them, so I personally think X-men and FF films are needed, to rebuild a core group of fan-favourites. 

 

Oooor... the trend is actually dying and no matter what happens, superhero movies are on the way out.

[keysersoze123]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	203	25501	29095	3594	12.35%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

47

 

T-14 Comps:

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	34.56		190	10399		0/351	32037/42436	24.51%		21117	17.02%		12.44m
L&T	54.88		195	6549		0/228	25051/31600	20.72%		16962	21.19%		15.91m
Bats	87.94		164	4087		0/285	31380/35467	11.52%		11757	30.57%		18.99m
BP2	50.91		230	7060		2/294	29934/37024	19.07%		16800	21.39%		14.25m
AM3	75.39		150	4767		0/238	28027/32794	14.54%		10475	34.31%		13.19m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     694/11051  [6.28% sold]
Matinee:    111/3372  [3.29% | 3.09% of all tickets sold]
3D:            407/5498  [7.40% | 11.32% of all tickets sold]

Can you add JWD comps as well. That is the only scenario where things look good for Guardians. 

[filmlover]

Love Again tickets are now on sale and it looks like it's being booked in among the smallest theaters everywhere. Can you say "dump?"

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

The work here is tremendous, but more data is always better.

 

Even if it's to validate what's being seen here, or understanding the timing gaps from different sources.

 

The other forecasts also may be tracking data outside of ticket sales, so it's never bad to have a different source.

 

But in the event of discrepancy, I trust what I see here over other sources. Especially since often industry publications have motivations to help their industry contacts by presenting certain forecasts to help hype films, or to protect them from elevated expectations.

Other than my direct association with both sites, this is pretty much why the numbers several people post here on BOT are the closest analog to what's being implemented in my models and reports posted on BOP -- which are not motivated by what studios tell me they want me to say. Though a few have tried from time to time, my answer is always that I'll mention what the studio expects but it will never represent my actual forecast unless there's a coincidence that it just so happens to be the same thing already.

 

Obviously I can't say the BOT and BOP sources are identical, but the methods are... in a similar multiverse. I collect as many insights from as many channels as possible to arrive at a targeted forecast that tries to hover around the average and then I have to make a consensus call. And while there are unofficial observers who prefer not to be named, I do like hearing different assessments of different data points that either sometimes help refine a number, or sometimes confirm what we're already forecasting.

 

That said, I'd like to get a better consensus well ahead of release rather than one or two days before opening to get full utility as these methodologies continue to evolve. So if anyone's interested in participating in an unofficial group project, of sorts, PM me.

[vafrow]

4 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Other than my direct association with both sites, this is pretty much why the numbers several people post here on BOT are the closest analog to what's being implemented in my models and reports posted on BOP -- which are not motivated by what studios tell me they want me to say. Though a few have tried from time to time, my answer is always that I'll mention what the studio expects but it will never represent my actual forecast unless there's a coincidence that it just so happens to be the same thing already.

 

Obviously I can't say the BOT and BOP sources are identical, but the methods are... in a similar multiverse. I collect as many insights from as many channels as possible to arrive at a targeted forecast that tries to hover around the average and then I have to make a consensus call. And while there are unofficial observers who prefer not to be named, I do like hearing different assessments of different data points that either sometimes help refine a number, or sometimes confirm what we're already forecasting.

 

That said, I'd like to get a better consensus well ahead of release rather than one or two days before opening to get full utility as these methodologies continue to evolve. So if anyone's interested in participating in an unofficial group project, of sorts, PM me.

 

I should have been clearer that it's not your site I was referring to. I would have been more precise in my post but I couldn't write more because I'm dealing with a Deadline at work.

[M37]

15 minutes ago, Shawn said:

That said, I'd like to get a better consensus well ahead of release rather than one or two days before opening to get full utility as these methodologies continue to evolve. So if anyone's interested in participating in an unofficial group project, of sorts, PM me.

[Issac Newton]

10 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Evil Dead Rises Previews final - 48646/148478 758808.98 1003 shows

 

Sadly walkups were not great. I am thinking ~ 2.5m previews

 

 

[Tinalera]

44 minutes ago, M37 said:

See I know very little about math stuff and projections and terms. But theres a vague part of my mind that sees Growth Rate, and starts thinking of where those numbers go, and what wonderful formulas there are, and that little part of my head just kind of shuts down at the thought of that rabbit hole LOL.

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

 

I should have been clearer that it's not your site I was referring to. I would have been more precise in my post but I couldn't write more because I'm dealing with a Deadline at work.

No worries! I didn't mean to infer that you were saying that either. We're both on the same page.

[Shawn Robbins]

17 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

See I know very little about math stuff and projections and terms. But theres a vague part of my mind that sees Growth Rate, and starts thinking of where those numbers go, and what wonderful formulas there are, and that little part of my head just kind of shuts down at the thought of that rabbit hole LOL.

It's a huge component in forecasting, but it certainly can be a headache even for veterans. The challenge often comes with getting everyone to agree on what the growth rate (or its ugly twin, the deceleration rate) will look like. I'm thinking Quantumania as recent example.

 

Then outside variables like word of mouth/reviews/etc. come into play. So on and so forth. There's no exact science.

[M37]

On 4/16/2023 at 10:16 AM, M37 said:

With the major caveat that I've only been casually keeping up with tracking, put me in the camp that it's too soon to write the GOTG3 under AMWQ or $100M eulogy. Going to call back to something I said in the early days of debate over AMWQ's presales:

 

I understand the proximity in both time and OW value makes AMWQ the de-facto comp ... but I think its a poor one within the MCU, existing on a somewhat different plane than the likes of Thor & BPWF in having more back-loaded sales trajectories.  GOTG has never been a fan-heavy/frontloaded sub-franchise; even highly anticipated GOTG2, after the leggy run of the first, had a solid IM and OW/OWeek multiplier relative to comparable titles at the time of release. Throw in the Easter/Spring Break and Mario's success as limiting factors in the first wave of sales, and the bad taste from lower quality Thor and AMWQ (and even that low-budget GOTG Xmas Special) making buyers more cautious, and IMO its just too early to hit the eject button here

 

For now, I'm mostly focused the Thor comp values, and while even those don't suggest a $20M Thursday in line with $120-$130M OW forecasts, they aren't as doom and gloom as some of the others either, with room to grow if reviews are positive

After showing some signs of life over the weekend (T-21 to T-18), these last 4 days of sales GOTG3 have been downright pathetic. Caveat of longer sales period so U-curve bottoms out more, but still

 

I still believe the audience here is going to be more casual & walk-up friendly than previous MCU releases, and there very well could be a "wait for reviews" mindset after recent disappointing quality, but even the optimistic, stronger late kick scenario is probably a $16-$18M Thursday. From here, topping AMWQ's OW ($106M) is basically a win, and that likely takes very positive reviews, which is no longer a given for MCU

[vafrow]

38 minutes ago, M37 said:

After showing some signs of life over the weekend (T-21 to T-18), these last 4 days of sales GOTG3 have been downright pathetic. Caveat of longer sales period so U-curve bottoms out more, but still

 

I still believe the audience here is going to be more casual & walk-up friendly than previous MCU releases, and there very well could be a "wait for reviews" mindset after recent disappointing quality, but even the optimistic, stronger late kick scenario is probably a $16-$18M Thursday. From here, topping AMWQ's OW ($106M) is basically a win, and that likely takes very positive reviews, which is no longer a given for MCU

 

I thought your prior post advocating for looking at the Thor 4 comp was compelling, and I've been keeping an eye on that one the most. But, it's falling off that pace pretty dramatically.

 

I've liked that some of the trackers have added The Batman as a comparable. It's a potential benchmark for a high recognition property that's dealing with damage from the broader brand, and that good reviews helped trigger casual audience walk ups. It's a longshot, but it's the best modelling in my mind to keep a $120-130M scenario alive.

 

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Can you add JWD comps as well. That is the only scenario where things look good for Guardians. 

 

 

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	34.56		190	10399		0/351	32037/42436	24.51%		21117	17.02%		12.44m			36
L&T	54.88		195	6549		0/228	25051/31600	20.72%		16962	21.19%		15.91m			29
Bats	87.94		164	4087		0/285	31380/35467	11.52%		11757	30.57%		18.99m			21.6
BP2	50.91		230	7060		2/294	29934/37024	19.07%		16800	21.39%		14.25m			28
AM3	75.39		150	4767		0/238	28027/32794	14.54%		10475	34.31%		13.19m			17.5
JWD	138.50		170	2595		0/191	22777/25372	10.23%		10966	32.77%		24.93m			18

 

JWD's sale pattern:

 

T-24:	22
T-23:	56
T-22:	41
T-21:	71
T-20:	101
T-19:	86
T-18:	99
T-17:	48
T-16:	112
T-15:	99
T-14:	170
T-13:	112
T-12:	105
T-11:	182
T-10:	192

 

I'd have to go back and look, but I'd expect that T-14 was right around the social embargo drop, if not review drop.

 

Either way, not that great of a comp, IMO.

 

FWIW, TGM might be a better comp for what you're looking for given how it played locally.  That's currently comping at 17.07m.  But that's almost entirely because of length in pre-sale windows.

 

Might just have to bite the bullet and rollout an ATP adjustment for Eternals as that might be the best analogue we have for an upside.  The adjustment I'm playing with, but haven't quite finalized, spits out 19.31m, after about a 13% hike.

Edited April 21, 2023 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

^^^^

I mentioned JWD as that had bad presales until final surge. But it looks like the comp will tank next week as Guardians has no catalyst until next friday. Problem with Eternals was smaller movies comps will not look good in the final week. it has to double that movie on a day on day. 

Edited April 21, 2023 by keysersoze123

[thajdikt]

In terms of catalyst won´t the review embargo being so close to the social reactions give them one less catalyst? Or is it insignificant?

Edited April 21, 2023 by thajdikt

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

In terms of catalyst won´t the review embargo being so close to the social reactions give them one less catalyst? Or is it insignificant?

So double catalyst next friday onwards. We should see HUGE BOOST if this will have a good OW. I am expecting sales double next friday and its pace should be around Thor 4 level for it to have any chance of 130m OW. Dont forget Thor had great final 2 days of presales. It was stronger than DS2. 

[keysersoze123]

35 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	34.56		190	10399		0/351	32037/42436	24.51%		21117	17.02%		12.44m			36
L&T	54.88		195	6549		0/228	25051/31600	20.72%		16962	21.19%		15.91m			29
Bats	87.94		164	4087		0/285	31380/35467	11.52%		11757	30.57%		18.99m			21.6
BP2	50.91		230	7060		2/294	29934/37024	19.07%		16800	21.39%		14.25m			28
AM3	75.39		150	4767		0/238	28027/32794	14.54%		10475	34.31%		13.19m			17.5
JWD	138.50		170	2595		0/191	22777/25372	10.23%		33839	10.62%		24.93m			18

 

Final sold number for JWD seem off. That looks YUGE. 

[Eric Prime]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

I still believe the audience here is going to be more casual & walk-up friendly than previous MCU releases,

This is the third movie in the sub-series for a franchise that has gotten more and more insular every single year. What is the appeal to the GA?

[TheFlatLannister]

I overshot Evil dead Thursday by $1m

 

so if it follows Scream VI (7.8x IM) it would fall just short of $20M

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Final sold number for JWD seem off. That looks YUGE. 

 

Sorry, that was total seats available.  Final sold was 10966.  

 

(wasn't fully awake when I saw your post and looked at the wrong column.  I'll fix it anon)