The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[ThomasNicole]

35 minutes ago, M37 said:

Sifting through some of the data and adding my thoughts

 

Fast X - looks fairly set for a $7-9M+ preview, wouldn't be surprised if it ends up on the higher end, as uber long sales windows can get weird. Probably IMs in the JW4 range of 8-9x

 

Spider-Verse - great first day, but means it will be difficult to comp. Sure looks like preview number in teens, if not higher, but going to have wait and see how much of this is a fan rush that dies off vs sustaining demand and sales.

 

Little Mermaid - Spend most of my time working through this one, given the apparent interest and greater uncertainty. Going to bury most of it under spoiler boxes so as not to clog up thread

  Reveal hidden contents

[ @Brainbug , please take your seat! 😉]

 

There has been significant discussion about the lack of good comps for Mermaid, but wanted to put some data and visuals behind. Here is data from Sacto, showing the ratio of final sales vs the T-14 checkpoint for most films tracked. Essentially same as growth rate, only displayed as multiplier rather than % increase, also on log scale. The ratios from other markets/samples will vary, but more importantly the tiers/grouping should be basically the same

 

 

Here there a a few very clearly defined groupings, or tiers:

 

0. LOL Tier - the only film here is Minions, which is a such a high end outlier - sales increased 17 fold in last two weeks (and the final is probably an under-count) that it should never be used as a comp for anything

 

1. Family* Tier - Included here are Nope and Venom 2, titles which had unusual circumstances regarding their sales window, and should be excluded as comps. But also two family films, Ghostbusters: Afterlife and Sonic, with some level of fanticipation; comps to be used sparingly or more as an upper bound, as they were earlier in the post-pandemic box office recovery, and with just ~$5M previews, are likely to overshoot when used against bigger releases

 

2. YMCA Tier (aka Young Man) - here we find the grouping of titles that usually skew towards younger men, often a diverse audience, a generally predictable pattern of sales. The likes of Fast 9, JW4, Black Adam, also JWD & Scream VI

 

3. Tentpole Tier - Where you find all of the $15M+ Thursday/$100M+ openings (except for JWD), and can be further divided into sub-tiers. The highest of those (so 3A) includes Avatar 2 and TGM, but which skewed to more mature/early buy audiences, and so took an unusual and flatter path to the the finish than most releases do or will

 

When we talk about comps and matching pace, its trying to guesstimate which of these tracks and tiers a given film's sales will follow. So which tier/grouping does Little Mermaid belong in?

  Reveal hidden contents

I think its reasonable to expect that Mermaid will not pace as high as Sonic towards the end - having more early presales and so a lower growth rate/T-14 multiplier - and on the lower end probably still finishes better than the top tentpoles like TGM and Avatar 2. Those seems like good upper and lower bounds for this exercise. But where in-between it falls is really not clear - there is a HUGE gap between T1 and T2 groupings and a smaller one between T2 and T3A, and having to use comps to try to match pace with a very different audience composition, adds another layer of uncertainty when trying to get to a $ value

 

Presuming Sacto stays on its (annoying) 60 tix/day pace, would wind up at ~1400 in sales at the T-14 checkpoint. Here's how that ticket number would roughly project out to a preview value given all possible comps (with some PSM adjustments)

Title	T-14 Multi	Preview
Minions	17.08	$37.06
Nope	10.89	$23.63
Ghostbusters	9.63	$20.90
Venom	8.93	$19.38
Sonic 2	7.84	$17.01
NTTD	5.40	$11.72
Black Adam	4.93	$10.70
Scream VI	4.78	$10.37
Dune	4.76	$10.33
John Wick 4	4.73	$10.26
Fast 9	4.58	$9.94
JWD	4.23	$9.18
Eternals	3.21	$6.97
Avatar 2	3.21	$6.97
GOTG3	2.93	$6.36
Batman	2.88	$6.25
TGM	2.83	$6.14

 

 

 

Even if it finishes somewhat like a tentpole, still can see $8/$9M as the floor for Thursday. Sonic at $17M is IMO not happening, but double digits is looking more and more likely, while landing somewhere in the teens is certainly possible.

  Reveal hidden contents

What about the IM and the OW?

 

Both TGM (excluding EA, 3-day) and Avatar 2 had an ~8x, while Minions, Ghostbusters and Lightyear were all around 10x. That seems to the be the approximate range, with the complicating factor of Memorial Day weekend typically producing a flatter weekend curve (bigger Thursday but also bigger Sunday).

Running some adjustments for that pattern and I came up with a range of 8-11x, with 9-10x the most likely outcome, but not having seen much data on weekend sales, don't know if that will hold up

 

Putting all of that together, come up with this Forecast Matrix

Mermaid 3-Day OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$8.0	$8.9	$9.8	$10.6	$11.5	$12.4	$13.3	$14.1	$15.0
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	8.00	$64.0	$71.0	$78.0	$85.0	$92.0	$99.0	$106.0	$113.0	$120.0
	8.31	$66.5	$73.8	$81.0	$88.3	$95.6	$102.9	$110.1	$117.4	$124.7
	8.63	$69.0	$76.5	$84.1	$91.6	$99.2	$106.7	$114.3	$121.8	$129.4
	8.94	$71.5	$79.3	$87.1	$95.0	$102.8	$110.6	$118.4	$126.2	$134.1
	9.25	$74.0	$82.1	$90.2	$98.3	$106.4	$114.5	$122.6	$130.7	$138.8
	9.56	$76.5	$84.9	$93.2	$101.6	$110.0	$118.3	$126.7	$135.1	$143.4
	9.88	$79.0	$87.6	$96.3	$104.9	$113.6	$122.2	$130.8	$139.5	$148.1
	10.19	$81.5	$90.4	$99.3	$108.2	$117.2	$126.1	$135.0	$143.9	$152.8
	10.50	$84.0	$93.2	$102.4	$111.6	$120.8	$129.9	$139.1	$148.3	$157.5

 

 

The values and shading shown here are probably skewed too high, in that the bigger Thursday gets, the lower the IM likely goes. But something like $85-120M OW (3-day) feels roughly right, but that range and/or midpoint can certainly be argued up, down, or even more compact.

 

Should have a much better idea of what pace to expect to the finish by maybe T-7, but certainly T-4, but until then it's just more watching and hoping for some clarity

Again, you’re so good at this that is almost unbelieavable

[ThomasNicole]

TLM does looks like 11-13M previews to me, depending on final push 

 

I’m fully expecting +100M 3-Day and +120M for MD 

 

Based on reactions, it does seems like WOM will be very good despite not so good reviews  

[Legion Again]

50 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

So Little Mermaid gonna make 400 dom is what I'm hearing

This would be less tickets than TLK/BATB/TJB/Aladdin and not even *that* much more than Makeficient, so… nostalgia toy commercials baybee

[Nate]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

Sifting through some of the data and adding my thoughts

 

Fast X - looks fairly set for a $7-9M+ preview, wouldn't be surprised if it ends up on the higher end, as uber long sales windows can get weird. Probably IMs in the JW4 range of 8-9x

 

Spider-Verse - great first day, but means it will be difficult to comp. Sure looks like preview number in teens, if not higher, but going to have wait and see how much of this is a fan rush that dies off vs sustaining demand and sales.

 

Little Mermaid - Spend most of my time working through this one, given the apparent interest and greater uncertainty. Going to bury most of it under spoiler boxes so as not to clog up thread

  Reveal hidden contents

[ @Brainbug , please take your seat! 😉]

 

There has been significant discussion about the lack of good comps for Mermaid, but wanted to put some data and visuals behind. Here is data from Sacto, showing the ratio of final sales vs the T-14 checkpoint for most films tracked. Essentially same as growth rate, only displayed as multiplier rather than % increase, also on log scale. The ratios from other markets/samples will vary, but more importantly the tiers/grouping should be basically the same

 

 

Here there a a few very clearly defined groupings, or tiers:

 

0. LOL Tier - the only film here is Minions, which is a such a high end outlier - sales increased 17 fold in last two weeks (and the final is probably an under-count) that it should never be used as a comp for anything

 

1. Family* Tier - Included here are Nope and Venom 2, titles which had unusual circumstances regarding their sales window, and should be excluded as comps. But also two family films, Ghostbusters: Afterlife and Sonic, with some level of fanticipation; comps to be used sparingly or more as an upper bound, as they were earlier in the post-pandemic box office recovery, and with just ~$5M previews, are likely to overshoot when used against bigger releases

 

2. YMCA Tier (aka Young Man) - here we find the grouping of titles that usually skew towards younger men, often a diverse audience, a generally predictable pattern of sales. The likes of Fast 9, JW4, Black Adam, also JWD & Scream VI

 

3. Tentpole Tier - Where you find all of the $15M+ Thursday/$100M+ openings (except for JWD), and can be further divided into sub-tiers. The highest of those (so 3A) includes Avatar 2 and TGM, but which skewed to more mature/early buy audiences, and so took an unusual and flatter path to the the finish than most releases do or will

 

When we talk about comps and matching pace, its trying to guesstimate which of these tracks and tiers a given film's sales will follow. So which tier/grouping does Little Mermaid belong in?

  Reveal hidden contents

I think its reasonable to expect that Mermaid will not pace as high as Sonic towards the end - having more early presales and so a lower growth rate/T-14 multiplier - and on the lower end probably still finishes better than the top tentpoles like TGM and Avatar 2. Those seems like good upper and lower bounds for this exercise. But where in-between it falls is really not clear - there is a HUGE gap between T1 and T2 groupings and a smaller one between T2 and T3A, and having to use comps to try to match pace with a very different audience composition, adds another layer of uncertainty when trying to get to a $ value

 

Presuming Sacto stays on its (annoying) 60 tix/day pace, would wind up at ~1400 in sales at the T-14 checkpoint. Here's how that ticket number would roughly project out to a preview value given all possible comps (with some PSM adjustments)

Title	T-14 Multi	Preview
Minions	17.08	$37.06
Nope	10.89	$23.63
Ghostbusters	9.63	$20.90
Venom	8.93	$19.38
Sonic 2	7.84	$17.01
NTTD	5.40	$11.72
Black Adam	4.93	$10.70
Scream VI	4.78	$10.37
Dune	4.76	$10.33
John Wick 4	4.73	$10.26
Fast 9	4.58	$9.94
JWD	4.23	$9.18
Eternals	3.21	$6.97
Avatar 2	3.21	$6.97
GOTG3	2.93	$6.36
Batman	2.88	$6.25
TGM	2.83	$6.14

 

 

 

Even if it finishes somewhat like a tentpole, still can see $8/$9M as the floor for Thursday. Sonic at $17M is IMO not happening, but double digits is looking more and more likely, while landing somewhere in the teens is certainly possible.

  Reveal hidden contents

What about the IM and the OW?

 

Both TGM (excluding EA, 3-day) and Avatar 2 had an ~8x, while Minions, Ghostbusters and Lightyear were all around 10x. That seems to the be the approximate range, with the complicating factor of Memorial Day weekend typically producing a flatter weekend curve (bigger Thursday but also bigger Sunday).

Running some adjustments for that pattern and I came up with a range of 8-11x, with 9-10x the most likely outcome, but not having seen much data on weekend sales, don't know if that will hold up

 

Putting all of that together, come up with this Forecast Matrix

Mermaid 3-Day OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$8.0	$8.9	$9.8	$10.6	$11.5	$12.4	$13.3	$14.1	$15.0
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	8.00	$64.0	$71.0	$78.0	$85.0	$92.0	$99.0	$106.0	$113.0	$120.0
	8.31	$66.5	$73.8	$81.0	$88.3	$95.6	$102.9	$110.1	$117.4	$124.7
	8.63	$69.0	$76.5	$84.1	$91.6	$99.2	$106.7	$114.3	$121.8	$129.4
	8.94	$71.5	$79.3	$87.1	$95.0	$102.8	$110.6	$118.4	$126.2	$134.1
	9.25	$74.0	$82.1	$90.2	$98.3	$106.4	$114.5	$122.6	$130.7	$138.8
	9.56	$76.5	$84.9	$93.2	$101.6	$110.0	$118.3	$126.7	$135.1	$143.4
	9.88	$79.0	$87.6	$96.3	$104.9	$113.6	$122.2	$130.8	$139.5	$148.1
	10.19	$81.5	$90.4	$99.3	$108.2	$117.2	$126.1	$135.0	$143.9	$152.8
	10.50	$84.0	$93.2	$102.4	$111.6	$120.8	$129.9	$139.1	$148.3	$157.5

 

 

The values and shading shown here are probably skewed too high, in that the bigger Thursday gets, the lower the IM likely goes. But something like $85-120M OW (3-day) feels roughly right, but that range and/or midpoint can certainly be argued up, down, or even more compact.

 

Should have a much better idea of what pace to expect to the finish by maybe T-7, but certainly T-4, but until then it's just more watching and hoping for some clarity

Please keep this matrix going from here on out, it's such a useful way to see the ranges. Love.

[thajdikt]

Wasn´t Transformers tickets supposed to go live today?

[poweranimals]

5 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

Wasn´t Transformers tickets supposed to go live today?

Apparently it's tomorrow.

[Eric Burnett]

Quorum Updates

Hypnotic T-4: 23.33% Awareness, 5.77 Interest

The Boogeyman T-26: 37.64%, 6.16

Barbie T-88: 45.76%, 4.86

Gran Turismo T-95: 18.32%, 4.94

Next Goal Wins T-137: 10.43%, 4.31

Killers of the Flower Moon T-165: 16.3%, 5.25

Trolls Band Together T-193: 36.45%, 4.77

 

Book Club: The Next Chapter T-4: 29.78% Awareness, 4.81 Interest

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 21% chance of 10M

Sequel Interest: 100% chance of 10M

 

Fast X T-11: 58.1% Awareness, 6.16 Interest

Final Awareness: 53% chance of 40M, 40% chance of 50M, 27% chance of 60M, 20% chance of 90M

Final Interest: 77% chance of 40M, 59% chance of 50M, 50% chance of 60M, 45% chance of 70M, 41% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 50% chance of 50M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 70M, 67% chance of 100M

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny T-53: 44.23% Awareness, 6.46 Interest

T-60 Awareness: 60% chance of 50M, 50% chance of 60M, 40% chance of 70M, 20% chance of 90M, 10% chance of 100M

T-60 Interest: 92% chance of 50M, 75% chance of 70M, 67% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 50% chance of 70M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 100M

[poweranimals]

That seems a little low for Indy. Good thing reviews come out in a little over a week.

[TheFlatLannister]

GREATER ORLANDO REGION
 

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

 

THURSDAY

 

T-23 *First 24 hours

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
115	2277	24639	9.2%

*Numbers taken as of 12:00pm EST

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP - $13.47
 

 

COMPS

T-23

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.495x) ~$9M THUR

 

Definitely selling like an MCU film here 

Currently thinking $90M OW but that number could go wayyy up if early reviews are glowing 

 

P.S. It's selling better than Mario's first 24 hours 

(However, Mario was a full day of box office and the final days of Mario was absolutely bonkers so I won't use it as a comp) 

[PrinceRico]

44 minutes ago, I Am Eric said:

Quorum Updates

Hypnotic T-4: 23.33% Awareness, 5.77 Interest

The Boogeyman T-26: 37.64%, 6.16

Barbie T-88: 45.76%, 4.86

Gran Turismo T-95: 18.32%, 4.94

Next Goal Wins T-137: 10.43%, 4.31

Killers of the Flower Moon T-165: 16.3%, 5.25

Trolls Band Together T-193: 36.45%, 4.77

 

Book Club: The Next Chapter T-4: 29.78% Awareness, 4.81 Interest

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 21% chance of 10M

Sequel Interest: 100% chance of 10M

 

Fast X T-11: 58.1% Awareness, 6.16 Interest

Final Awareness: 53% chance of 40M, 40% chance of 50M, 27% chance of 60M, 20% chance of 90M

Final Interest: 77% chance of 40M, 59% chance of 50M, 50% chance of 60M, 45% chance of 70M, 41% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 50% chance of 50M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 70M, 67% chance of 100M

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny T-53: 44.23% Awareness, 6.46 Interest

T-60 Awareness: 60% chance of 50M, 50% chance of 60M, 40% chance of 70M, 20% chance of 90M, 10% chance of 100M

T-60 Interest: 92% chance of 50M, 75% chance of 70M, 67% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 50% chance of 70M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 100M

Starting to wonder if some are over predicting Indy here. Not seeing much hype from general audience. I loved the 4th but it definitely had a mixed response from fans.

[misterpepp]

1 hour ago, thajdikt said:

Wasn´t Transformers tickets supposed to go live today?

Very late today, depending on where you live. Around midnight EST.

[TheFlatLannister]

20 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION
 

FAST X

 

THURSDAY

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
143	1566	28556	5.5%

*Numbers taken as of 5:00pm EST

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

75

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP - $13.62
 

 

COMPS

T-10

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.257x) ~$4.5M THUR

GREATER ORLANDO REGION
 

FAST X

 

THURSDAY

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
143	1602	28556	5.6%

*Numbers taken as of 2:30pm EST

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

36

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP - $13.62
 

 

COMPS

T-9

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.258x) ~$4.6M THUR

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, PrinceRico said:

Starting to wonder if some are over predicting Indy here. Not seeing much hype from general audience. I loved the 4th but it definitely had a mixed response from fans.

 

I still have it as my pick for top film this summer, but, if it does fall flat, it'll be hard to say there was no warning.

 

It showed poorly in the Fandango poll, not doing great in these metrics, it didn't get a big presentation in CinemaCon.

 

I also think that without the writers strike, Harrison Ford would be making the tours on all the late shows, and be getting a lot of media attention.

 

I'm still hopeful, but the risk certainly is there.

[Mickiland16]

19 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

I still have it as my pick for top film this summer, but, if it does fall flat, it'll be hard to say there was no warning.

 

It showed poorly in the Fandango poll, not doing great in these metrics, it didn't get a big presentation in CinemaCon.

 

I also think that without the writers strike, Harrison Ford would be making the tours on all the late shows, and be getting a lot of media attention.

 

I'm still hopeful, but the risk certainly is there.

It's weird because at the end of last year it placed fifth on the Fandango poll as for ALL the releases of 2023 but not even top 10 on the summer one? It's like the marketing did the oppositive of getting people hyped which I don't get because it doesn't look bad. 

[TwoMisfits]

So, my Cinemark sets for Transformers - 1 PLF screen each, and then my bigger Cinemark is only giving 1 extra screen (for 8 total showings) while the smaller 12, which does better with the Bollywood and foreign films, is going for 3 screens (and 12 showings).  They obviously sense there will be some interesting demo breakdowns for this movie...

 

So, it's not just a throwaway release...although it's not a big one, either...

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/8/2023 at 2:03 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY 

 

T-17

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	2081	32751	6.4%

^{*Numbers taken as of 2:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

31

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

ATP: $14.38

 

 

COMPS

T-17

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.418x) ~$7.3M THUR

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY 

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	2301	32751	7.0%

^{*Numbers taken as of 4:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

220

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

ATP: $14.38

 

 

COMPS

T-16

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.453x) ~$8.2M THUR

 

Massive jump today thanks to the positive social media reactions 

[PrinceRico]

15 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY 

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	2301	32751	7.0%

^{*Numbers taken as of 4:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

220

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

ATP: $14.38

 

 

COMPS

T-16

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.453x) ~$8.2M THUR

 

Massive jump today thanks to the positive social media reactions 

Nice. 

[PrinceRico]

Any updates on TLM and has Spider Mam been able to maintain the pace from yesterday 

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, PrinceRico said:

Any updates on TLM and has Spider Mam been able to maintain the pace from yesterday 

I am not sure if you have followed this thread before but following yesterday's pace is not on the menu. If it does that Endgame watch out. 

[PrinceRico]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am not sure if you have followed this thread before but following yesterday's pace is not on the menu. If it does that Endgame watch out. 

What is good pace for today