The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[GOGODanca]

Transformers RoTB (D-29) 10 AM local time

 

134 tickets sold across 10 Houston AMC's

[M37]

Just going to mildly suggest again that Scream VI be added to comp list for Mermaid. Yeah, there’s going be market share/PSM differences, but really feeling like that may wind up being the best comp of the possible options

[GOGODanca]

Wouldn't Jurassic World Dominion be the best comp for TLM? Both live action family skewing blockbusters with summer releases and banking on obvious nostalgia

[M37]

Just now, GOGODanca said:

Wouldn't Jurassic World Dominion be the best comp for TLM? Both live action family skewing blockbusters with summer releases and banking on obvious nostalgia

One problem with JWD is that reviews were terrible and deflated demand, creating a weaker finish than pace leading up to their release suggested was coming, and I don't think we'll see the same with Mermaid, especially as a family movie on Thursday of a major holiday weekend. Expecting those current comp values to undershoot final total

[ringedmortality]

So Transformers doing bad so far?

[keysersoze123]

They definitely are making a mistake in releasing Transformers between all the big movies. its going to get buried. 

[TheFlatLannister]

25 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

So Transformers doing bad so far?

Sales wise I have no idea, but the low allocation is telling me that Transformer will probably sink because of the packed summer 

[screambaby]

Just now, TheFlatLannister said:

Sales wise I have no idea, but the low allocation is telling me that Transformer will probably sink because of the packed summer 

Move the release date? 

 

[reddevil19]

7 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Sales wise I have no idea, but the low allocation is telling me that Transformer will probably sink because of the packed summer 

Yeah, it definitely seems to be an afterthought compared to everything else this summer. I think the trailers have been godawful and any confidence in the project due to lack of Bay and the Bumblebee movie's reception seems to have gone down the drain. 

 

[vafrow]

It's not scientific, but, my 8 year old is hyper focused on seeing Rise of the Beasts when it comes out, and something he talks about constantly with his friends. We're likely going to organize something with other parents to see it that opening weekend.

 

My kid rarely gets excited for movies. Only ones he's been super keen on in the past has been Mario and Sonic. For that reason, I think Sonic 2 might be a good comparison, as I feel this iteration of Transformers is really a kids franchise. Others were as well, but Bay brought in elements to target it older. But, for that reason, coming out a week after Spiderverse will hurt this bad.

 

I'm taking a look at sales near me and barely anything has sold on it. Launching overnight means that you haven't gotten a full evenings worth yet, but, it doesn't look like there's a hardcore element here driving interest. There's going to be a lot of reliance on walk ups when there's lots of options in theatres.

[keysersoze123]

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts MTC1 previews - 7666/613434 141599.54 3264 shows

 

Its not spiderverse for sure but it has sold few tickets. 

[kayumanggi]

 

[M37]

3 minutes ago, vafrow said:

It's not scientific, but, my 8 year old is hyper focused on seeing Rise of the Beasts when it comes out, and something he talks about constantly with his friends. We're likely going to organize something with other parents to see it that opening weekend.

 

My kid rarely gets excited for movies. Only ones he's been super keen on in the past has been Mario and Sonic. For that reason, I think Sonic 2 might be a good comparison, as I feel this iteration of Transformers is really a kids franchise. Others were as well, but Bay brought in elements to target it older. But, for that reason, coming out a week after Spiderverse will hurt this bad.

 

I'm taking a look at sales near me and barely anything has sold on it. Launching overnight means that you haven't gotten a full evenings worth yet, but, it doesn't look like there's a hardcore element here driving interest. There's going to be a lot of reliance on walk ups when there's lots of options in theatres.

Unfortunately, I think that sounds and awful lot like Shazam, where the adult fan base has mostly eroded and it’s going to depend on more casual/family audience, and has a much lower ceiling 

 

Too bad it already got the exclusive on PLFs, because I don’t think those will be drive much in sales 

[jedijake]

How front loaded should we expect TLM to be on OW?

[cookie]

13 minutes ago, jedijake said:

How front loaded should we expect TLM to be on OW?

If it performs like Aladdin/Cruella it should stay near-flat from Friday to Sunday and then drop 15-20% on Monday.

[TheFlatLannister]

54 minutes ago, screambaby said:

Move the release date? 

 

Too late for that now. Tickets already on sale 

[charlie Jatinder]

The Little Mermaid MiniTC2 T-16

 

EA - 728/2913 (10 showings) $12,213
Previews - 1460/63264 (242 showings) $19,854

 

Comps (Choose your own adventure)

0.64x Super Mario Bros - $20.2M (adjust for full-day release, make it around $15M+)

1.82x John Wick 4 - $16.2M

2.32x Scream 6 - $13.2M

2.04x Fast X - ??? (likely $15M)

~0.77x Jurassic World 3 - $13.9M

& just for the sake of it

0.57x Avatar 2 - $9.7M

0.47x Top Gun: Maverick - $9.3M

 

[joselowe]

I know we still have a little over two weeks but based on the pre-sales now, does anyone have OW predictions for TLM?

[Tinalera]

3 hours ago, vafrow said:

For anyone tracking tickets in the Greater Toronto area, particularly the west end, the new Cineplex Junxion in Erin Mills is set to open May 17. With an emphasis on premium seating, it'll likely draw business from the surrounding theatres, which includes Winston Churchill, Milton, Square One, Brampton and Courtney Park.

Thank you for the information I did GTA area awhile ago before I changed over to my current format, GTA is an interesting area I found because sometimes presales can vary wildly from area to the next. 

[vafrow]

35 minutes ago, M37 said:

Unfortunately, I think that sounds and awful lot like Shazam, where the adult fan base has mostly eroded and it’s going to depend on more casual/family audience, and has a much lower ceiling 

 

Too bad it already got the exclusive on PLFs, because I don’t think those will be drive much in sales 

 

When laid out like that, yeah, hard to be optimistic. Especially since Shazam had a market starved for kids content, while Rise of the Beasts is being sandwiched between Spiderverse and Elemental. Plus, just lots of different stuff in the market still.

 

It'll be a tough loss for Paramount after they couldn't get traction on D&D.