The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[PrinceRico]

17 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

  

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

FAST X

 

THURSDAY

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
143	2015	28556	7.1%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

92

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP - $13.62

 

 

COMPS

T-4

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.264x) ~$4.6M THUR

If it follows F9 IM (~$45.5M OW)

 

JOHN WICK 4

(1.14x) ~$10.1M THUR

If it follows F9 IM (~$99M OW)

 

So if it falls in between the two comps ; $71M-$72M OW as of rn

Budget aside this is the 10th installment in a franchise about cars that is not based on a AU novel or any book. The fact that it’s still able to open to this much after almost 20 years worth of movies  is pretty crazy. 

[TheFlatLannister]

2 minutes ago, PrinceRico said:

Budget aside this is the 10th installment in a franchise about cars that is not based on a AU novel or any book. The fact that it’s still able to open to this much after almost 20 years worth of movies  is pretty crazy. 

Numbers are sadly trending down. It’s not selling very well this close to previews and GOTG comp will start to separate a lot in the final 3 days 

 

I’m expecting a number closer to $65M tbh 

maybe even $60M if the pace doesn’t pick up 

[DAJK]

LOL Transformers has sold ONE ticket at my locals for Thursday previews. One.

 

ONE!!

 

Bomb for the ages folks. Tracking across the country is poor as well. Not going to be surprised if this does Shazam numbers domestically TBH, unless by some miracle it’s amazing.

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, Tinalera said:

Going to start Little Mermaid Tracking-would Shazam be a comparable as being a "family movie' or no?

I would say just go for it. Finding comps for LM is hard 

[jedijake]

21 minutes ago, DAJK said:

LOL Transformers has sold ONE ticket at my locals for Thursday previews. One.

 

ONE!!

 

Bomb for the ages folks. Tracking across the country is poor as well. Not going to be surprised if this does Shazam numbers domestically TBH, unless by some miracle it’s amazing.

We talking Dark Phoenix/Terminator Dark Fate levels?

[Flamengo81]

1 hour ago, JustLurking said:

Shazam seems too different not just in volume but also in the fact that its finish was poor as well iirc, feels like a pointless comp for anything

Might be useful for Blue Beetle 👀

[keysersoze123]

11 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Fast X

MTC1 Previews (T-5)- 45653/551788 816891.79 2756 shows +2548

 

Fast X MTC1 Previews (T-4) - 49589/554270 882456.93 2775 shows +3936

 

Increase is not bad today. Let us hope it continues to accelerate. There is still hope for this to have higher previews than F9. 

[keysersoze123]

10 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mermaid 

MTC1 previews(T-12) - 39108/908940 684037.34 5540 shows +1505

Mermaid MTC1

Wednesday -  12571/35113 271474.31 154 shows

previews(T-11) - 40797/910933 711588.37 5557 shows +1689

 

 

[Porthos]

On 5/14/2023 at 1:34 AM, Porthos said:

 

Across the Spider-Verse Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	123	18301	19902	1601	8.04%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

42

 

T-19 Comps:

	%		Sold T-19	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
ET	108.25		55	1479		0/96	14064/15543	9.52%		6409	24.98%		11.63m
JWD	77.46		86	2067		0/184	22740/24807	8.33%		10966	14.60%		13.94m
BA	291.09		48	550		0/146	21513/22063	2.49%		4494	35.63%		22.12m
A2	70.53		142	2270		0/142	19068/21338	10.64%		8986	17.82%		11.99m
Wick 4	207.38		47	772		0/86	12192/12964	5.95%		5448	29.39%		18.46m
GOTG3	48.96		87	3270		0/206	26377/29647	11.03%		8363	19.14%		8.57m
TLM	144.89		73	1105		0/153	21474/22579	1.08%		????	????		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of AtSV's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ET COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x to reflect the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:      188/5583  [3.37% sold]
Matinee:    83/2373  [3.50% | 5.18% of all tickets sold]
-----
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
AtSV = 1.20864x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-19 [16.68m]    
AtSV = 0.79903x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-19 [21.13m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

 

Across the Spider-Verse Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	123	18220	19902	1682	8.45%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

81

 

T-18 Comps:

	%		Sold T-18	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
ET	108.52		71	1550		0/96	13991/15541	9.97%		6409	26.24%		11.65m
JWD	77.65		99	2166		0/184	22643/24809	8.73%		10966	15.34%		13.98m
BA	278.94		53	603		0/146	21460/22063	2.73%		4494	37.43%		21.20m
A2	69.73		142	2412		0/142	18926/21338	11.30%		8986	18.72%		11.85m
Wick 4	192.01		104	876		0/88	12454/13330	6.57%		5448	30.87%		17.09m
GOTG3	50.06		90	3360		0/206	26287/29647	11.33%		8363	20.11%		8.76m
TLM	145.00		55	1160		0/153	21416/22576	1.08%		????	????		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of AtSV's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ET COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x to reflect the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     200/5583  [3.58% sold]
Matinee:    93/2373  [3.92% | 5.53% of all tickets sold]
-----
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
AtSV = 1.20493x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-18 [16.63m]    
AtSV = 0.7915x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-18 [20.94m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

[Porthos]

On 5/14/2023 at 1:35 AM, Porthos said:

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	154	20987	22721	1734	7.63%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

110

 

T-12 Comps:

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	301.04		24	576		0/80	11682/12258	4.70%		3951	43.89%		18.82m
JWD	61.66		105	2812		0/191	22562/25374	11.08%		10966	15.81%		11.10m
BA	168.35		55	1030		0/146	21037/22067	4.67%		4494	38.58%		12.79m
Scream VI	236.56		29	733		0/78	9127/9860	7.43%		3134	55.33%		13.48m
Wick 4	135.05		53	1284		0/90	12301/13585	9.45%		5448	31.83%		12.02m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:        242/5710  [4.24% sold]
Matinee:        44/621  [7.09% | 2.54% of all tickets sold]
3D:            201/4055  [4.96% | 11.59% of all tickets sold]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 1.81924x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-12 [14.64m]    
TLM = 0.96497x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-12 [13.32m]    
TLM = 0.58321x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-12 [15.43m]    
TLM = 1.00859x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-12 [9.86m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	154	20858	22721	1863	8.20%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

129

 

T-11 Comps:

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	304.41		36	612		0/80	11640/12252	5.00%		3951	47.15%		19.03m
JWD	62.22		182	2994		0/191	22380/25374	11.80%		10966	16.99%		11.20m
BA	173.46		44	1074		0/146	20993/22067	4.87%		4494	41.46%		13.18m
Scream VI	244.49		29	762		0/78	9098/9860	7.73%		3134	59.44%		13.94m
Wick 4	139.76		49	1333		0/95	12458/13791	9.67%		5448	34.20%		12.44m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:        265/5710  [4.64% sold]
Matinee:        46/621  [7.41% | 2.47% of all tickets sold]
3D:            225/4055  [5.55% | 12.08% of all tickets sold]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 1.87125x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-11 [15.06m]    
TLM = 0.98366x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-11 [13.57m]    
TLM = 0.58603x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-11 [15.50m]    
TLM = 1.02974x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-11 [10.07m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differen

[Porthos]

On 5/14/2023 at 1:36 AM, Porthos said:

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	179	26509	28144	1635	5.81%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

74

 

T-5 Unadjusted Comps:

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	105.76		119	1546		0/145	20907/22453	6.89%		3737	43.75%		6.56m
Bats	28.92		251	5653		0/297	31137/36790	15.37%		11757	13.91%		6.25m
TG:M	24.57		312	6654		0/271	30655/37309	17.83%		11474	14.25%		4.86m
JWD	35.40		449	4619		0/224	23313/27932	16.54%		10966	14.91%		6.37m
BA	97.90		149	1670		0/169	22641/24311	6.87%		4494	36.38%		7.44m
Wick 4	79.22		166	2064		0/118	14480/16544	12.48%		5448	30.01%		7.05m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-5 Adjusted Comp:

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	98.01		113	1606		0/89	11878/13484	11.91%		4407	37.10%		7.98m
Fast X (adj)			69	1574		0/161	23207/24781	6.35%

ADUSTMENT NOTE:  Fast X (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

F9 COMP NOTE:  The F9 comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     287/10367  [2.77% sold]
Matinee:    67/3600  [1.86% | 4.10% of all tickets sold]

 

======

 

So help me, this thing faceplants at the very last moment and it turns out that I wasted ***NEARLY THREE AND A HALF MONTHS*** tracking this when I didn't need to, I will be...

 

I will be slightly put out.

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	179	26350	28144	1794	6.37%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

159

 

T-4 Unadjusted Comps:

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	105.34		157	1703		0/145	20757/22460	7.58%		3737	48.01%		6.53m
Bats	29.80		368	6021		0/297	30769/36790	16.37%		11757	15.26%		6.44m
TG:M	25.16		476	7130		0/271	30179/37309	19.11%		11474	15.64%		4.97m
JWD	34.05		649	5268		0/224	22664/27932	18.86%		10966	16.36%		6.13m
BA	95.12		216	1886		0/169	22425/24311	7.76%		4494	39.92%		7.23m
Wick 4	77.83		241	2305		0/119	14274/16579	13.90%		5448	32.93%		6.93m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-4 Adjusted Comp:

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	95.74		200	1806		0/89	11678/13484	13.39%		4407	40.71%		7.80m
Fast X (adj)			155	1729		0/161	23052/24781	6.98%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Fast X (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

F9 COMP NOTE:  The F9 comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     308/10367  [2.97% sold]
Matinee:     75/3600  [2.08% | 4.18% of all tickets sold]

Edited May 15, 2023 by Porthos

[jedijake]

So....at this point we STILL can't say that TLM's previews will probably be between $12-$14 million?

Edited May 15, 2023 by jedijake

[SpiderByte]

14 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I would say just go for it. Finding comps for LM is hard 

Would previous live action Disney's work as comps?

[vafrow]

46 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Would previous live action Disney's work as comps?

Prepandemic films make for very difficult comps. There has been a significant change around culture of advance ticket buying since that point.

 

The last theatrical Disney live action was Cruella, but also being really early in return to theatres, it's not a great comp if people have it available. 

[SpiderByte]

I'm trying to imagine what the second weekends of Fast and Transformers are going to look like...

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, SpiderByte said:

Would previous live action Disney's work as comps?

Maybe

 

but LM will attract a lot of African Americans who I would assume are not going to preorder tickets 

[M37]

Trendline on Fast X is … not good. Still probably in $7-$8M range for Thursday, but based on current trajectory, IMO better odds at dropping below $7 than rising over $8. Could be a Mother’s Day deflation effect at play though - gotta take care of family before worrying about FAMILY - and some recovery possible in next few days 

Edited May 15, 2023 by M37

[jedijake]

31 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Prepandemic films make for very difficult comps. There has been a significant change around culture of advance ticket buying since that point.

 

The last theatrical Disney live action was Cruella, but also being really early in return to theatres, it's not a great comp if people have it available. 

I think that is a generalization. We don't know how the culture of advance ticket buying has changed for movies like TLM. So movies like BatB and Aladdin may  be just fine for comps. They've fallen in line with other movies that have been used as post-pandemic comps.

[Tinalera]

Fast X

Thurs May 18 and Fri May 19

Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Newfoundland Canada\

 

NS		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
	Thurs	4	29	145	5978	6123	0.0236
	Fri	4	28	190	3785	3975	0.0477
NB		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
	Thurs	4	12	53	2663	2716	0.0195
	Fri	4	11	74	1802	1876	0.0394
NFLD	Thurs	1	12	96	1965	2061	0.0488
	Fri	1	4	100	856	961	0.1040

 

No GOTG for T-4

Antman

 

Antman Quantumania

Thurs Feb 16 and Fri Feb 17 (taken feb 11)

Eastern Canada 

 

Nova Sc	Thurs	4	27	597	5675	6272	0.0951
	fri	4	25	454	5624	6078	0.0746
New B	Thurs	3	12	216	2368	2584	0.0835
	fri	3	14	172	2804	2976	0.0577
St Jon NF	Thurs	1	13	319	2208	2527	0.1262
	fri	1	9	300	1542	1842	0.1628

 

Total seat availabity

 

	NS T	NS F	NB T	NB F	NFLD T	NFLD F
Fast X	6123	3975	2716	1876	2061	961
Antman	6272	6078	2584	2976	2527	1842
Diff	-149	-2103	132	-1100	-466	-881

[Eric the Minion]

On 5/13/2023 at 8:35 PM, Eric Toretto said:

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	119	1100	23242	4.73%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 59

 

Comp - T-5

0.850x of F9 (6.03M)

0.440x of Jurassic World 3 (7.92M)

1.836x of Nope (11.75M)

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	119	1188	23242	5.11%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 88

 

Comp - T-4

0.848x of F9 (6.02M)

0.437x of Jurassic World 3 (7.87M)

1.605x of Nope (10.27M)