The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[keysersoze123]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Transformers

MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 66854/700435 1215428.10 4031 shows +14223

Transformers MTC1 previews - 95212/700517 1675443.84 4033 shows

 

Really good growth. Definitely over 7.5m+ previews with early shows. 

[el sid]

Transformers counted today for Friday:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 451 (11 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 277 (18 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 74 (15 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 26 (10 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 67 (11 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 297 (16 showtimes) 
LA (AMC Universal): 579 (17 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.771.
 

Up good 62.5% since Tuesday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday of the release week for Friday): Uncharted (44M) had 1.180 sold tickets,
JW: D (125M OW) had 5.623 - still not looking good for Transformers in that comp but it improved from 33M on Tuesday to now 39.4M which is not that bad,
Ghostbusters: Afterlife (44M) had 1.124,
Fast X (67M) had 2.354,
SC (75.5M) had 3.740
and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (106.1M) had 5.280 sold tickets.
 

Very uneven from my comps. It's weak (means comps point to under 50M OW) against Ant-Man, SC and JW: D but otherwise pretty solid (50M+). Because it had a nice jump and at least improved e.g. in the JW: D comp I just say 50M OW.

By the way, I will count rather sporadically in June and July. I do this for Idk how many years now and was always way more interested in exceptional films and horror/thriller/action movies than in big blockbusters. And we have enough excellent trackers here. 
I will probably count Indy 5, Insidious and some other movies but not all.

PS: @M37 I'm not often looking at reddit.com/r/boxoffice but saw that your The Flash prediction/comment was one of the news there and got a lot attention .
 

Edited June 8, 2023 by el sid

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/7/2023 at 3:34 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Flash Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

318

2188

14.53%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

176

1179

14.93%

 

Monday: 225(+2)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1129	57	20101	5.62%	13	108

 

0.647

Across the Spider-Verse T-8

11.22M

0.352

Ant-Man 3 T-8

6.17M

0.240

Thor L&T T-8

6.96M

0.787

Eternals T-8

7.47M

The Flash Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

324

2188

14.81%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

187

1179

15.86%

 

Monday: 225

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1195	66	20101	5.94%	13	108

 

0.630

Across the Spider-Verse T-7

10.93M

1.717	Black Adam T-7	13.05M
0.241	Thor L&T T-7	6.99M
0.330	Batman T-7	7.12M
0.796	Eternals T-7	7.56M

[Welcbr12]

On 5/31/2023 at 1:49 AM, Bobzaruni said:

A lot of people have seen it already and reviews from fan screenings internationally (not the same as the ones last week which were more media-oriented) are out on some websites and fans' social media. Based on my tracking of the response, it's tremendously positive. I've seen maybe 3 reviews under a 3.5/5 out of multiple hundreds and nearly all of them are 5/5s. Even if it evens out and there is a far less positive response from the media, at worst it'll be like a 90%~ on RT. I can't see it going lower than that at all unless something goes completely sideways.

Well, something really went completely sideways... 

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/7/2023 at 3:37 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Flash Alamo Drafthouse

T-8 Thursday

132 Showings

2944

+142

21027

ATP:

15.68

0.527

Across the Spider-Verse T-8

9.15M

0.255

Ant-Man 3 T-8

4.47M

0.218

Thor L&T T-8

6.32M

0.553

Eternals T-8

5.26M

 

T-9 Friday

154 Showings

2078

+143

25644

ATP:

16.03

0.399

Across the Spider-Verse T-9

13.77M

0.198

Ant-Man 3 T-9

5.73M

0.181

Thor L&T T-9

7.34M

0.430

Eternals T-9

9.17M

 

T-10 Saturday

152 Showings

1883

+141

25352

ATP:

15.34

0.376

Across the Spider-Verse T-10

14.05M

0.176

Ant-Man 3 T-10

5.98M

0.173

Thor L&T T-10

7.30M

0.385

Eternals T-10

9.28M

 

T-11 Sunday

137 Showings

830

+67

23469

ATP:

14.46

0.264

Across the Spider-Verse T-11

8.26M

0.160

Ant-Man 3 T-11

4.13M

0.137

Thor L&T T-11

4.46M

0.290

Eternals T-11

4.73M

The Flash Alamo Drafthouse

T-7 Thursday

132 Showings

3338

+394

21027

ATP:

15.64

0.532

Across the Spider-Verse T-7

9.22M

1.704	Black Adam T-7	12.95M
0.234	Thor L&T T-7	6.80M
0.306	The Batman T-7	5.39M
0.608	Eternals T-7	5.78M

 

T-8 Friday

155 Showings

2193

+115

25754

ATP:

16.07

0.390

Across the Spider-Verse T-8

13.47M

1.385	Black Adam T-8	26.45M
0.184	Thor L&T T-8	7.45M
0.203	The Batman T-8	7.12M
0.433	Eternals T-8	9.25M

 

T-9 Saturday

152 Showings

2025

+142

25352

ATP:

15.30

0.382

Across the Spider-Verse T-9

14.30M

1.273	Black Adam T-9	30.18M
0.178	Thor L&T T-9	7.50M
0.188	The Batman T-9	8.13M
0.398	Eternals T-9	9.61M

 

T-10 Sunday

137 Showings

946

+116

23469

ATP:

14.42

0.284

Across the Spider-Verse T-10

8.88M

1.729	Black Adam T-10	28.71M
0.148	Thor L&T T-10	4.82M
0.194	The Batman T-10	6.63M
0.321	Eternals T-10	5.25M

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/7/2023 at 3:38 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Flash Emagine Entertainment

T-8 Thursday

142 Showings

1376

+91

22048

0.740

Across the Spider-Verse T-8

12.84M

 

T-9 Friday

224 Showings

870

+53

34429

0.494

Across the Spider-Verse T-9

17.04M

 

T-10 Saturday

217 Showings

634

+37

33578

0.674

Across the Spider-Verse T-10

25.23M

 

T-11 Sunday

210 Showings

281

+21

32461

0.792

Across the Spider-Verse T-11

24.74M

The Flash Emagine Entertainment

T-7 Thursday

142 Showings

1458

+82

22052

0.712

Across the Spider-Verse T-7

12.35M

 

T-8 Friday

224 Showings

947

+77

34429

0.474

Across the Spider-Verse T-8

16.35M

 

T-9 Saturday

217 Showings

693

+59

33578

0.652

Across the Spider-Verse T-9

24.38M

 

T-10 Sunday

210 Showings

326

+45

32461

0.842

Across the Spider-Verse T-10

26.32M

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/7/2023 at 3:39 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

131

2338

5.60%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

164

1365

12.01%

 

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
576	16	20094	2.87%	13	102

 

0.396

JW Dominion T-22

7.14M

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

132

2338

5.65%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

172

1365

12.60%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
603	27	20094	3.00%	13	102

 

0.403

JW Dominion T-21

7.25M

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/7/2023 at 3:40 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alamo Drafthouse

T-22 Thursday

113 Showings

3803

+49

18502

ATP:

15.56

1.06

JW Dominion T-22

19.15M

 

T-23 Friday

157 Showings

3113

+82

26270

ATP:

15.49

1.07

JW Dominion T-23

44.41M

 

T-24 Saturday

158 Showings

3107

+96

26606

ATP:

14.76

1.04

JW Dominion T-24

48.63M

 

T-25 Sunday

141 Showings

1538

+31

23931

ATP:

14.24

1.31

JW Dominion T-25

50.44M

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alamo Drafthouse

T-21 Thursday

113 Showings

3841

+38

18502

ATP:

15.55

1.08

JW Dominion T-21

19.37M

 

T-22 Friday

157 Showings

3210

+97

26047

ATP:

15.44

1.07

JW Dominion T-22

44.62M

 

T-23 Saturday

158 Showings

3165

+58

26383

ATP:

14.76

1.03

JW Dominion T-23

48.33M

 

T-24 Sunday

140 Showings

1582

+44

23831

ATP:

14.25

1.28

JW Dominion T-24

49.45M

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/7/2023 at 3:41 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Emagine Entertainment

T-22 Thursday

143 Showings

738

+17

22137

 

T-23 Friday

232 Showings

295

+26

35334

 

T-24 Saturday

228 Showings

165

+4

34901

 

T-25 Sunday

226 Showings

71

+0

34222

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Emagine Entertainment

T-21 Thursday

143 Showings

752

+14

22137

 

T-22 Friday

232 Showings

320

+25

35334

 

T-23 Saturday

228 Showings

178

+13

34903

 

T-24 Sunday

226 Showings

71

+0

34222

[katnisscinnaplex]

2 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Working on the T-1 hr updates for the early shows and found an error in one of the Raleigh shows.  I've updated the quoted post and will update the original as well.  New projections are bolded.  

 

7 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Transformers 6	T-0	Jax	5	74	213	776	10,116	7.67%
		Phx	7	71	275	829	11,257	7.36%
		Ral	8	78	202	675	8,586	7.86%
	Total		20	223	690	2,280	29,959	8.43%

 

Transformers T-0 comps (Excl EA)

 - NTTD- 1.014x (5.27m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.272x (5.28m)

 - F9 - .746x (5.3m)

 - Dune - 1.031x (5.26m)

 - Black Adam - .813x (6.18m)

 - Shang-Chi - .757x (6.66m)

 - Jurassic World 3 - .308x (5.45m)

 - Sonic 2 - 1.3x (6.48m)*

 - Uncharted - 1.812x (6.71m)*

 

Basically two ranges it could fall in based on these comps.  I lean pretty heavily to the 5.3m comps and will set that as my prediction.  Five comps within 200k is hard to look past.  I'm also trying out a new method that uses growth rate against comps to predict final sales & multipliers.  This is my first attempt at it, so there's no telling how accurate it will be.  That being said, the true Th preview prediction model has spit out 5.752m. 

 

*Sonic 2 and Uncharted comps were incorrect yesterday.  I'll update that post and have corrected them in the quote above.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Transformers 6	1-Hr	Jax	5	74	538	1,314	10,116	12.99%
		Phx	7	71	331	1,160	11,257	10.30%
		Ral	8	79	399	1,074	8,638	12.43%
	Total		20	224	1,268	3,548	30,011	11.82%

 

I found another showing that I misreported so quoted post should now be correct. I've gone through every showing again to confirm. 

 

Transformers T-1 hr comps (Excl EA)

 - NTTD- 1.299x (6.76m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.488x (6.18m)

 - F9 - .925x (6.57m)

 - Dune - 1.29x (6.58m)

 - Black Adam - .933x (7.09m)

 - Shang-Chi - .866x (7.62m)

 - Jurassic World 3 - .361x (6.4m)

 - Sonic 2 - missed

 - Uncharted - missed

All 3pm movies - 6.96m

All action movies - 6.64m

All adventure movies - 7.12m

All PG-13 movies - 7.19m

All movies - 7.57m

 

This was a pretty solid final day of sales.  Using my old method I would predict 6.7m for Thursday previews.  Using my new growth rate model, I get a range of 5.9m to 8m.  If I remove the CBM comps (Shang-Chi and Black Adam), the range shifts to 5.9m to 6.4m.  I'll go with the average of the remaining comp forecasts to set my final prediction at 6.13m.  

[Inceptionzq]

Oppenheimer Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

245

804

30.47%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

 

Total

73

563

12.97%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
556	N/A	7876	7.06%	13	41

[Inceptionzq]

Oppenheimer Alamo Drafthouse

T-42 Thursday

80 Showings

1152

12246

ATP:

19.20

 

T-43 Friday

123 Showings

954

18749

ATP:

18.27

 

T-44 Saturday

114 Showings

1331

17684

ATP:

19.37

 

T-45 Sunday

115 Showings

602

18064

ATP:

19.22

[Inceptionzq]

Oppenheimer Emagine Entertainment

T-42 Thursday

70 Showings

227

11340

 

T-43 Friday

108 Showings

79

15089

 

T-44 Saturday

107 Showings

45

15088

 

T-45 Sunday

105 Showings

9

14858

[Menor the Destroyer]

36 minutes ago, Welcbr12 said:

Well, something really went completely sideways... 

...that post was about Spiderverse lol

[Rageofthegods]

30 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Oppenheimer Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

245

804

30.47%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

 

Total

73

563

12.97%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
556	N/A	7876	7.06%	13	41

7% sold already! 

[TheFlatLannister]

21 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Elemental

 

THURSDAY

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
104	582	14573	4.0%

^{*Numbers taken as of 8:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

30

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

16

 

SELLOUTS

0

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Elemental

 

THURSDAY

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
104	629	14573	4.3%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

47

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

FWIW, very unofficial comp is pointing to ~$2.5Mish previews, but I would look to other trackers who have better comps 

 

Anyways a very solid day. Best day since I started tracking it

[TheFlatLannister]

21 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

 

THURSDAY

 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
122	1707	27188	6.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

15

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-22

 

 

(0.365x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$6.4M THUR Previews

 

(1.334x) of FAST X

~$10M THUR Previews

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

 

THURSDAY

 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
130	1732	28584	6.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

25

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

8

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-21

 

 

(0.369x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$6.5M THUR Previews

 

(1.328x) of FAST X

~$9.9M THUR Previews

[TheFlatLannister]

21 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

The Flash

 

THURSDAY includes fan screenings

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
189	2815	38172	7.4%

^{*Numbers taken as of 8:30pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

57

 

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

37

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(0.441x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$7.7M THUR Previews

 

(0.689x) of ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

~$12M THUR Previews 

 

(1.653x) of FAST X

~$12.4M THUR Previews

 

Points to ~$11M Previews 

 

 

COMPS ONLY THURSDAY

T-8

 

(0.401x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$7M THUR Previews

 

(0.629x) of ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

~$10.9M THUR Previews 

 

(1.506x) of FAST X

~$11.3M THUR Previews

 

Points to ~$10M Previews

 

 

Show count went up, sales fell behind

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

The Flash

 

THURSDAY includes fan screenings

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
189	2943	38172	7.7%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

128

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(0.448x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$7.8M THUR Previews

 

(0.688x) of ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

~$11.9M THUR Previews 

 

(1.657x) of FAST X

~$12.4M THUR Previews

 

Points to ~$11M Previews 

 

 

COMPS ONLY THURSDAY

T-7

 

(0.410x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$7.2M THUR Previews

 

(0.630x) of ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

~$10.9M THUR Previews 

 

(1.516x) of FAST X

~$11.4M THUR Previews

 

Points to ~$10M Previews

 

 

Good news pace picked up again, but a little too late? I feel like I should remove the Guardians comp (it's so far from the other comps) let me know what y'all think about it

[Dragoncaine]

1 hour ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Flash Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

324

2188

14.81%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

187

1179

15.86%

 

Monday: 225

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1195	66	20101	5.94%	13	108

 

0.630

Across the Spider-Verse T-7

10.93M

1.717	Black Adam T-7	13.05M
0.241	Thor L&T T-7	6.99M
0.330	Batman T-7	7.12M
0.796	Eternals T-7	7.56M

Pitiful rate. What is happening? Reviews are good enough, so I guess interest in DC is just pathetically low rn

[vafrow]

13 hours ago, vafrow said:

Transformers Rise of the Beasts T-1 update

Milton, Ontario

 

Only 33 tickets sold and a Fast X comp of 0.434X of Fast X, for $3.25M, so no real change here.

 

It's also ar 1.14X The Little Mermaid, which really under indexed in Canada, and my theatre even more. The Spiderverse comp only gets worse at 0.097 for $1.7M.

 

Rise of the Beasts Walk Up sales update

 

Milton, Ontario

 

Surprisingly strong sales today. 

 

That Fast X comp was 0.434x as of this morning for $3.25M. With the early show about to close , without further walk ups to the late show, its now at 0.700 of Fast X for $5.25M. That'll go up as well as I got final late show numbers. This is with Transformers only having one screen, compared to the two of Fast X.

 

This is one of the stronger walk up performances I've really seen. Maybe the smoke is pushing people to indoor activities. It's still only bringing this market closer to the standard.

 

I'll try and get final numbers at the end of the night.