The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[TwoMisfits]

21 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

Honestly shocked over the sales from The Flash, was sure that 115M+ was a slam dunk and like 20M + previews was all but certain. Guess I overestimated it big time.

 

After the Shazam 2 numbers (for a movie I didn't find bad), I don't doubt any low DC numbers til the reboot.

 

I'm not saying the numbers will stay low for Flash, but it was always in my under $300M pool pre-summer b/c of Shazam's results.  Now the only question is if it should drop another level to the below $200M group...but anything can happen with the holiday open, so for now, it's just a fun watch of the presales...

[Krissykins]

23 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

Honestly shocked over the sales from The Flash, was sure that 115M+ was a slam dunk and like 20M + previews was all but certain. Guess I overestimated it big time.

I’m surprised and impressed that the industry trackers outside of here were so accurate on this one with their $70m a few weeks ago. 

[Shawn Robbins]

I'd still lean on Black Adam as an appropriate comp for The Flash more than most (except maybe John Wick 4), but even that has declined about 9% in aggregated sales over the last seven days.

 

Tomorrow's LRF will definitely be accounting for the lack of expected movement that should be happening by now.

 

That said, I still think $10M+ previews is likely. $12M is doable, but it needs help next week. With the Father's Day bump, that keeps $100M on the table... on the very, very outskirts of the table, needing a Jurassic World-like level of general audience interest beyond previews.

 

Midpoint, $75-80Mish looks like the trajectory at the moment with no significant bumps next week. I have a hard time seeing it not at least pass Black Adam, but that's a far cry from the Man of Steel comp that seemed relevant awhile back.

[THUNDER BIRD]

I guess people need to put respect to Dwayne Johnson's name.

 

He's a legit movie star if Flash opens to anyways near Black Adam.

 

WB filled Flash with every padding possible while Black Adam had only him.

Edited June 8, 2023 by THUNDER BIRD

[MightyDargon]

Okay.

So how "good" does Barbie have to actually be to breakout now? Mario was high 50s RT and was a MASSIVE breakout.

[ringedmortality]

1 minute ago, MightyDargon said:

Okay.

So how "good" does Barbie have to actually be to breakout now? Mario was high 50s RT and was a MASSIVE breakout.

 

That's one thing we don't have to worry about. A lot of critics have already made up their minds on how they're gonna like it.

 

inb4 "Moderation: Not the Barbie thread"

[JohnnyGossamer]

3 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

Okay.

So how "good" does Barbie have to actually be to breakout now? Mario was high 50s RT and was a MASSIVE breakout.

Whether it's a breakout or not will be determined by the OW DOM and legs thereafter not the RT score. Not sure I follow here?

[ChipDerby]

2 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

I guess people need to put respect to Dwayne Johnson's name.

 

He's a legit movie star if Flash opens to anyways near Black Adam.

 

WB filled Flash with every padding possible while Black Adam had only him.

 

Yes and no. Black Adam didn't really have to deal with the Snyder-verse issues, since it was very loosely connected. Whereas Flash is literally directly connected with that, AND is now coming after the poor performance of Shazam (also with MUCH more direct competition).

[MightyDargon]

Rock was directly responsible for Black Adam's massive cost bloat that made it unprofitable AND for why Black Adam didn't actually fight Shazam. He was a net negative for attempting to continue the old DCEU.

Say what you will about Ezra but it in no way makes Rock a good choice for trying to build a superhero series around.

[John Marston]

10 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

Okay.

So how "good" does Barbie have to actually be to breakout now? Mario was high 50s RT and was a MASSIVE breakout.

 

Barbie will likely flop. A Barbie movie should be targeted to little girls. This movie clearly isn’t. Reminds me of that Dora movie from 2019

[21C]

WBD is probably praying that international opens significantly higher than domestic like it did for JL 2017 (93 DOM vs 185 INT) because if Flash opens on the same range overseas (around 70-90 million) it's really bad news for them. Does anyone have any idea how it's tracking overseas or on key markets like in China?

Edited June 8, 2023 by 21C

[CJohn]

Transformers opened here today. It was fourth. How the mighty have fallen.

 

It was a monster day in theaters tho. Today was a holiday and it was rainy all day which means theaters got a huge boost. 

 

[M37]

10 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

Okay.

So how "good" does Barbie have to actually be to breakout now? Mario was high 50s RT and was a MASSIVE breakout.

Different audiences, broad family appeal vs primarily adults, so different tastes & expectations. In the same way that TF middling RT score appears to be moving the needle among casual viewers far more than Flash’s better reviews, because casuals appears to be more checked out on DC/Snyder-verse in general (Black Adam was a much a Rock action vehicle as DC story film)

 

Like I expect Barbie’s presales to shoot out of the gate, but without very good reviews to pull in a lot of the curious but hesitant potential audience, can very easily see it stalling down the stretch (same goes for its weekend competition Oppenheimer too)

[THUNDER BIRD]

8 minutes ago, 21C said:

WBD is probably praying that international opens significantly higher than domestic like it did for JL 2017 (93 DOM vs 185 INT) because if Flash opens on the same range overseas (around 70-90 million) it's really bad news for them. Does anyone have any idea how it's tracking overseas or on key markets like in China?

https://twitter.com/Luiz_Fernando_J/status/1666853149292867596?t=y4yMsAPgLeT5LWBC_TOzFA&s=19

[M37]

28 minutes ago, Shawn said:

I'd still lean on Black Adam as an appropriate comp for The Flash more than most (except maybe John Wick 4), but even that has declined about 9% in aggregated sales over the last seven days.

 

Tomorrow's LRF will definitely be accounting for the lack of expected movement that should be happening by now.

 

That said, I still think $10M+ previews is likely. $12M is doable, but it needs help next week. With the Father's Day bump, that keeps $100M on the table... on the very, very outskirts of the table, needing a Jurassic World-like level of general audience interest beyond previews.

 

Midpoint, $75-80Mish looks like the trajectory at the moment with no significant bumps next week. I have a hard time seeing it not at least pass Black Adam, but that's a far cry from the Man of Steel comp that seemed relevant awhile back.

[Maggie]

10 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

Barbie will likely flop. A Barbie movie should be targeted to little girls. This movie clearly isn’t. Reminds me of that Dora movie from 2019

Gi Joe wasn't targeting little boys and it did well

[TMP]

10 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Gi Joe wasn't targeting little boys and it did well

i mean it was exclusively targeting little boys and it's one of the reasons the movies never really took off

[TheFlatLannister]

16 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Transformer: Rise of the beast

 

THURSDAY includes EA 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
287	3762	58602	6.4%

^{*Numbers taken as of 8:30PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

918

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

113

 

SELLOUTS

2

 

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(1.268x) of Fast X

~$9.5M Previews 

 

 

COMPS WITHOUT EA

T-1

 

(0.896x) of Fast X

~$6.7M Previews 

 

Comp AVG ~$8.1M

 

Let's see how it goes tomorrow but I would say $8M including EA (Could be $7.5M or $8.5M) 

 

EA is accounting for 41% of preview sales 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Transformer: Rise of the beast

 

THURSDAY includes EA 

 

T-0 *Final update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
298	4543	60834	7.7%

^{*Numbers taken as of 2:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

781

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

11

 

SELLOUTS

2

 

NOTE: Sold 781 seats today; yesterday it sold 762 seats EXCLUDING any EA

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(1.182x) of Fast X

~$8.9M Previews 

 

 

COMPS WITHOUT EA

T-0

 

(0.894x) of Fast X

~$6.7M Previews 

 

Comp AVG ~$7.8M

 

Officially going with $7.5M-$8M

 

Would not be shocked if they report it as something like $7.3M

[Krissykins]

21 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

Barbie will likely flop. A Barbie movie should be targeted to little girls. This movie clearly isn’t. Reminds me of that Dora movie from 2019

I’d say they’re also making the effort to target girls. Hence the dolls being available to buy. Needs to appeal to adults as well as kids. 
 

When do Barbie tickets go on sale? Tracking will be interesting. 

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

1 hour ago, WorkingonaName said:

Miyazaki it is then. 

Who's gonna start the How Do You Live? Summer Champion WW club?