The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[titanic2187]

19 minutes ago, Maggie said:

This June is shaping up to be mediocre. Barbie to the rescue imo

As long as June passes $1bn, the first $1bn for June since 2019, then overall the market is still doing ok although definitely not up to its potential. 

 

In 2022 summer, there was five 100m openers and I don't think 2023 can match that number of 100m OW but at least the number of $50m-$100m OW is increasing. Sadly we only had one $50m-$100m OW last summer but this summer I think we are heading to at least seven.  

[M37]

1 minute ago, ChipDerby said:

 

I find it absolutely hard to believe Flash will open under $70 mil.

Doesn’t even have to: Something like $55 vs $75 is a realistic possibility at present. One going up quickly, the other fading 

[Eric the Ape]

22 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Yeah June flopped while July is going to be off the charts. 

 

With how bleak August looks as well, all of Spiderverse, M7, Barbie and Oppenheimer will continue playing strong until Labor Day

Not gonna go too far into this, because I know I'm going to get lectured by others because I dared to doubt Barbie or Papa Nolan, but I can see all of Flash, Indy, Oppy, and Barbie opening around the 50s just like Transformers. Maybe one of them opens in the 60s? Just feels like they all have issues when it comes to breaking out any further outside of their respective fanbases. Which...yeah, that would be a dreadful period from now until November. And if the strikes get real bad and cause mass delays...kinda scared if the movie industry will even survive all this.

 

I know I'm probably being too overly cynical, but it's another one of those "too hard not to be cynical" kind of days.

 

But hey, I can at least kind of see all the crazy M:I breakout predictions now? Maybe? It's definitely the strongest offering of the bunch, even if the trailers don't really have any big hook for non-fans.

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

Doesn’t even have to: Something like $55 vs $75 is a realistic possibility at present. One going up quickly, the other fading 

Even 59 vs 58 not out of the question 👀

[Maggie]

Oppenheimer is apparently selling very good. I can see it having a good OW. I don't know about legs. Barbie must break out

[thajdikt]

Honestly shocked over the sales from The Flash, was sure that 115M+ was a slam dunk and like 20M + previews was all but certain. Guess I overestimated it big time.

[JohnnyGossamer]

7 minutes ago, Eric Prime said:

Not gonna go too far into this, because I know I'm going to get lectured by others because I dared to doubt Barbie or Papa Nolan, but I can see all of Flash, Indy, Oppy, and Barbie opening around the 50s just like Transformers. Maybe one of them opens in the 60s? Just feels like they all have issues when it comes to breaking out any further outside of their respective fanbases. Which...yeah, that would be a dreadful period from now until November. And if the strikes get real bad and cause mass delays...kinda scared if the movie industry will even survive all this.

 

I know I'm probably being too overly cynical, but it's another one of those "too hard not to be cynical" kind of days.

 

But hey, I can at least kind of see all the crazy M:I breakout predictions now? Maybe? It's definitely the strongest offering of the bunch, even if the trailers don't really have any big hook for non-fans.

Is Flash really looking at an OW DOM in the 50s? Seemed like trackers had 65M OW DOM as the floor. I'd expect Indy to go higher than 50s OW DOM too. Transformers 50s seems what's expected. Barbie is complete wildcard.

[GOGODanca]

The belief that reviews would end up being amazing like TDK, ATSV, BP level and that Keaton fans would buy tickets in droves, when you get mediocre reviews and Keaton fans might not turn out since its not his movie and makes sense that the OW can be deflated

[YSLDC]

1 minute ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

Even 59 vs 58 not out of the question 👀

 

If Flash falls behind Black Adam I'll go offline for a month or 2 from sites like Reddit or Twitter. It'll be unbearable.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Wasn't FX tracking not so great then it did nearly 70M OW DOM? 

[kayumanggi]

 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

14 minutes ago, Eric Prime said:

Not gonna go too far into this, because I know I'm going to get lectured by others because I dared to doubt Barbie or Papa Nolan, but I can see all of Flash, Indy, Oppy, and Barbie opening around the 50s just like Transformers. Maybe one of them opens in the 60s? Just feels like they all have issues when it comes to breaking out any further outside of their respective fanbases. Which...yeah, that would be a dreadful period from now until November. And if the strikes get real bad and cause mass delays...kinda scared if the movie industry will even survive all this.

 

I know I'm probably being too overly cynical, but it's another one of those "too hard not to be cynical" kind of days.

 

But hey, I can at least kind of see all the crazy M:I breakout predictions now? Maybe? It's definitely the strongest offering of the bunch, even if the trailers don't really have any big hook for non-fans.

You make it sound like a $50M opening would be bad for Barbie, but I think that'd actually be quite good for it considering how much of a meme movie it is. It's also not an effects-heavy extravaganza so the budget will no doubt be a lot lower than Warner's previous meme tentpole Detective Pikachu. An opening in that vicinity might be mediocre against a $150M budget, but against a, say, $90M budget it's pretty good.

[MrPink]

17 minutes ago, Eric Prime said:

Not gonna go too far into this, because I know I'm going to get lectured by others because I dared to doubt Barbie or Papa Nolan, but I can see all of Flash, Indy, Oppy, and Barbie opening around the 50s just like Transformers. Maybe one of them opens in the 60s? Just feels like they all have issues when it comes to breaking out any further outside of their respective fanbases. Which...yeah, that would be a dreadful period from now until November. And if the strikes get real bad and cause mass delays...kinda scared if the movie industry will even survive all this.

 

I know I'm probably being too overly cynical, but it's another one of those "too hard not to be cynical" kind of days.

 

But hey, I can at least kind of see all the crazy M:I breakout predictions now? Maybe? It's definitely the strongest offering of the bunch, even if the trailers don't really have any big hook for non-fans.

 

A 50m opening for Oppy would make me pretty ecstatic tbh. What the hell are you expecting there lol.

Edited June 8, 2023 by MrPink

[excel1]

Flash opening to less than Black Adam despite doubling its resales would be interesting.

[JohnnyGossamer]

3 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

A 50m opening for Oppy would make me pretty ecstatic tbh. What the hell are you expecting there lol.

Yeah. That didn't make sense to me either. That would be a phenomenal OW DOM for Oppenheimer and excellent for Barbie too honestly. 

[mmed1345]

22 minutes ago, Eric Prime said:

Not gonna go too far into this, because I know I'm going to get lectured by others because I dared to doubt Barbie or Papa Nolan, but I can see all of Flash, Indy, Oppy, and Barbie opening around the 50s just like Transformers. Maybe one of them opens in the 60s? Just feels like they all have issues when it comes to breaking out any further outside of their respective fanbases. Which...yeah, that would be a dreadful period from now until November.

I think opening in line with Dunkirk with $50-60M would be amazing for Oppenheimer since it’s rated R and 3hrs. Same with Barbie if it goes over $50M+, those would be solid breakouts imo.

Edited June 8, 2023 by mmed1345

[Eric the Ape]

Like I said, I'm in a "I want to be cynical" kind of mood. And I don't know if those openings for Oppy and Barbie would have them "dominate" like Nash is saying.

[MrPink]

 

3 minutes ago, Eric Prime said:

Like I said, I'm in a "I want to be cynical" kind of mood. And I don't know if those openings for Oppy and Barbie would have them "dominate" like Nash is saying.

 

Like I don't know if it'd be 'dominating' but two movies opening to over 50m on the same weekend would be a rather healthy performance for both. That's still a pretty infrequent occurrence. And probably have room to have good legs to challenge 200m if those OWs could happen.

Edited June 8, 2023 by MrPink

[ChipDerby]

It would be funny if Flash followed the Black Adam comparison and made $15-16 mil previews, and $130 mil OW.

 

[WorkingonaName]

$50M for Oppy would be great, especially since Nolan movies are more international heavy.  

Edited June 8, 2023 by WorkingonaName
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