The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Maggie]

7 minutes ago, TMP said:

i mean it was exclusively targeting little boys and it's one of the reasons the movies never really took off

ok what about the most obvious example: Transformers?

[JpTransformers]

10 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

REGIÃO GRANDE DE ORLANDO

 

Transformer: A Ascensão da Besta

 

QUINTA-FEIRA inclui EA 

 

T-0 *Atualização final

EXIBIÇÕES	ASSENTOS VENDIDOS	TOTAL DE ASSENTOS	PORCENTO VENDIDO
298	4543	60834	7,7%

^{*Números obtidos a partir das 14:00 EST}

VAGAS VENDIDAS DESDE ONTEM

781

 

EXIBIÇÕES ADICIONADAS DESDE ONTEM

11

 

ESGOTADOS

2

 

NOTA: 781 assentos vendidos hoje; ontem vendeu 762 assentos EXCLUINDO qualquer EA

 

COMPOR

T-0

 

(1.182x) de  Fast X

~ $ 8,9 milhões de visualizações 

 

 

COMPS SEM EA

T-0

 

(0,894x) de  Fast X

~ $ 6,7 milhões de visualizações 

 

Comp AVG ~$ 7,8 milhões

 

Oficialmente indo com US$ 7,5 milhões a US$ 8 milhões

 

Não ficaria chocado se eles relatassem algo como $ 7,3 milhões

nice raises i would say

 

[Maggie]

All Oppenheimer tickets on sale. very curios about this one

[GOGODanca]

https://deadline.com/2023/06/indiana-jones-and-the-dial-of-destiny-box-office-projection-1235412010/

[21C]

25 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

https://twitter.com/Luiz_Fernando_J/status/1666853149292867596?t=y4yMsAPgLeT5LWBC_TOzFA&s=19

It'd be useful to have a more direct SAT comparison, but if it's tracking close to The Batman, that's not really encouraging news since The Batman ended up grossing a total of 25 million in China (for comparison, Justice League 2017 opened to 51 million)

Although, on the other hand, if it opens up overseas in other markets to a total similar to The Batman of 124 million, maybe that'd be enough to save The Flash worldwide? Similar legs to The Batman would give it around 400 million internationally, which coupled with a 270-300 million performance domestic would make it be fine in the end.

If it opens to 80-100 internationally though... there's a good chance the movie opens to under 200 million worldwide, and ends up at around 500-600 million. 

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, 21C said:

It'd be useful to have a more direct SAT comparison, but if it's tracking close to The Batman, that's not really encouraging news since The Batman ended up grossing a total of 25 million in China (for comparison, Justice League 2017 opened to 51 million)

Although, on the other hand, if it opens up overseas in other markets to a total similar to The Batman of 124 million, maybe that'd be enough to save The Flash worldwide? Similar legs to The Batman would give it around 400 million internationally, which coupled with a 270-300 million performance domestic would make it be fine in the end.

If it opens to 80-100 internationally though... there's a good chance the movie opens to under 200 million worldwide, and ends up at around 500-600 million. 

Unless Flash hits 90 or above, it's very unlikely it's seeing 270-300 domestic honestly.

[AJG]

37 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Gi Joe wasn't targeting little boys and it did well

Power Rangers tried to target the PG13 crowd and did horribly. I’d argue there may be a correlation between that film and Barbie. Similar to Barbie, Power Rangers is not a pre-school franchise but does sort of functions like one. By time a child is 8-9 they’re kinda done with the both of them.

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

After the Shazam 2 numbers (for a movie I didn't find bad), I don't doubt any low DC numbers til the reboot.

 

I'm not saying the numbers will stay low for Flash, but it was always in my under $300M pool pre-summer b/c of Shazam's results.  Now the only question is if it should drop another level to the below $200M group...but anything can happen with the holiday open, so for now, it's just a fun watch of the presales...

 

My personal rule of thumb these days is that any film where I start to doubt if $300M is possible, I start to think that under $200M is a good possibility.

 

Nothing seems to land in the $200-300M range. 

 

This rule has me thinking its possible for Indy, even though I had it as my pick for top film this summer.

[lorddemaxus]

1 minute ago, AJG said:

Power Rangers tried to target the PG13 crowd and did horribly. I’d argue there may be a correlation between that film and Barbie. Similar to Barbie, Power Rangers is not a pre-school franchise but does sort of functions like one. By time a child is 8-9 they’re kinda done with the both of them.

It worked for Transformers though. Problem with Power Rangers was that it was at least 6 years too late and looked like a syfy original.

[AJG]

Just now, lorddemaxus said:

It worked for Transformers though. Problem with Power Rangers was that it was at least 6 years too late and looked like a syfy original.

I’d argue Transformers skews a bit older than Barbie, and Rangers. It wasn’t uncommon to see the kids watch stuff like Transformers, Ninja Turtles, SpongeBob, and Spider-Man at 9, 10, or 11 years old. I just remember my daughters interest in those CG Barbie movies and TV shows falling off really quickly.

[TwoMisfits]

10 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

My personal rule of thumb these days is that any film where I start to doubt if $300M is possible, I start to think that under $200M is a good possibility.

 

Nothing seems to land in the $200-300M range. 

 

This rule has me thinking its possible for Indy, even though I had it as my pick for top film this summer.

 

Ant Man 3 did...

 

And so far, in 2023, we've got 1 officially in each category - over $400M (technically over $500M) - Mario, over $300M - GOTG, and over $200M - Ant Man, with Spidey and Mermaid to slot - and just 4 in over $100M - Creed, Wick, Scream, Fast X...so, it's early to declare this won't be the year of $200-$300M movies:)...especially with tracking folks thinking June post Spidey is the disappointment zone...

[grey ghost]

A tacked on Transformers movie beating Indy 5 was not on my "summer bingo card".

[katnisscinnaplex]

4 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Flash	T-7	Jax	6	64	36	486	10,050	4.84%
		Phx	6	48	35	581	8,749	6.64%
		Ral	8	63	26	431	8,688	4.96%
	Total		20	175	97	1,498	27,487	5.45%
Transformers 6	T-0	Jax	5	74	458	1,021	10,116	10.09%
		Phx	7	71	275	829	11,257	7.36%
		Ral	8	78	202	675	8,586	7.86%
	Total		20	223	1,128	2,525	29,959	8.43%

 

Transformers T-0 comps (Excl EA)

 - NTTD- 1.123x (5.84m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.409x (5.85m)

 - F9 - .826x (5.86m)

 - Dune - 1.142x (5.82m)

 - Black Adam - .9x (6.84m)

 - Shang-Chi - .838x (7.38m)

 - Jurassic World 3 - .341x (6.03m)

 - Sonic 2 - 1.44x (7.17m)*

 - Uncharted - 2.007x (7.43m)*

 

Basically two ranges it could fall in based on these comps.  I lean pretty heavily to the 5.9m comps and will set that as my prediction.  Five comps within 200k is hard to look past.  I'm also trying out a new method that uses growth rate against comps to predict final sales & multipliers.  This is my first attempt at it, so there's no telling how accurate it will be.  That being said, the true Th preview prediction model has spit out 6.24m. 

 

*Sonic 2 and Uncharted comps were incorrect yesterday.  I'll update that post and have corrected them in the quote above.

Working on the T-1 hr updates for the early shows and found an error in one of the Raleigh shows.  I've updated the quoted post and will update the original as well.  New projections are bolded.  

[Porthos]

8 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Sacto Report [T-1]

3432/25686 [13.36% sold] [+930 tickets] [Wed: + 247 | Thr: + 683]

0.35543x the sales of TGM at T-1                   [6.85m]

0.40765x the sales of JWD at T-1                   [7.34m]

1.08814x the sales of Black Adam at T-1        [8.27m]

0.87663x the sales of Wick 4 at T-1               [7.80m]

1.17213x the sales of Fast X at T-1                 [8.79m]

 

===

 

Guess I should have been tracking this For Realz all along!!!

 

(Good news is, I'll be able to backport mostof this run to my Historical Master Sheets, if without most of my internal bells and whistles)

 

 

Don't normally do final day mid-day updates for Q&D's, but...

 

Quick and Dirty Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Sacto Report [T-0 - MID DAY]

3919/25812 [15.18% sold] [+487 tickets]

0.37817x the sales of TGM at T-0 Mid-Day                   [7.28m]

0.41296x the sales of JWD at T-0 Mid-Day                   [7.43m]

1.08260x the sales of Black Adam at T-0 Mid-Day       [8.23m]

0.90196x the sales of Wick 4 at T-0 Mid-Day               [8.03m]

1.15095x the sales of Fast X at T-0 Mid-Day                 [8.63m]

 

7.5m - 8.5m looks to be the range for right now, pending rest-of-sample walkups.

 

Edited June 8, 2023 by Porthos

[Shawn Robbins]

9 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

A tacked on Transformers movie beating Indy 5 was not on my "summer bingo card".

It still won't, so you're safe. 😜

[Austin]

2 hours ago, Grebacio said:

I wish Sony delays the home release for Across The Spiderverse as much as possible and they get some PLFs back on August-September

My bruthah, it will be lucky to have a expansion, let alone PLF gain in July/August.

Edited June 8, 2023 by Austin

[TheFlatLannister]

when did oppenheimer general presales start? I want to do a 24 hour check

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

What IM are we thinking for ROTB? Is 7x too high?

[M37]

17 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

My personal rule of thumb these days is that any film where I start to doubt if $300M is possible, I start to think that under $200M is a good possibility.

 

Nothing seems to land in the $200-300M range. 

 

This rule has me thinking its possible for Indy, even though I had it as my pick for top film this summer.

Absolutely with you on this (see below)

 

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Ant Man 3 did...

 

And so far, in 2023, we've got 1 officially in each category - over $400M (technically over $500M) - Mario, over $300M - GOTG, and over $200M - Ant Man, with Spidey and Mermaid to slot - and just 4 in over $100M - Creed, Wick, Scream, Fast X...so, it's early to declare this won't be the year of $200-$300M movies:)...especially with tracking folks thinking June post Spidey is the disappointment zone...

There is a stat I've thrown out a few times, including in my (now apparently boring) Indy 5 under club

 

Quote

In the post-pandemic market, no single film has finished with a domestic gross between $225M and $343M. These values almost certainly aren't true make-or-break thresholds, but the broader point is the complete lack of an upper middle class tier of films: they either have enough of an "it factor", some combination of mass appeal and/or quality to vault into the top tiers of BO$, or just can't get over the ~$230M hump, leaving a massive gap.

It looked for a while like AMWQ would shoot that gap after a strong sales opening, but a tepid GA response and trash reviews pushed it down below the threshold. Then GOTG3 appeared poised to disappoint and fall short of the top end, but reviews/WOM overcame audience hesitancy and now appears set to pass the $343M of Thor L&T.

So we're now on 2+ years of having that void, though more like ~18 months as more a return to normal. It looks like TLM is going to be the first film to fill that gap, officially lowering the threshold for the upper bound (but with some significant and atypical underperformance in some audience demos, kinda feels like an asterisk there and the "rule" still mostly holds). ASTV looks likely to shoot above it, Flash and Indy certainly trending to fall below the lower threshold

 

That just leaves (IMO) MI7 and Barbie as possible $340M+ movies (or $300M+ or whatever top tier value cut-off you want to use) for the summer, and if I had to bet on one, it would be on Barbie as something new/different and potentially hitting the zeitgeist rather than the 7th film in an action franchise growing by 50% from the previous installment (unless there really is some major TGM carry-over effect)

[Austin]

2 hours ago, Eric Prime said:

Not gonna go too far into this, because I know I'm going to get lectured by others because I dared to doubt Barbie or Papa Nolan, but I can see all of Flash, Indy, Oppy, and Barbie opening around the 50s just like Transformers. Maybe one of them opens in the 60s? Just feels like they all have issues when it comes to breaking out any further outside of their respective fanbases. Which...yeah, that would be a dreadful period from now until November. And if the strikes get real bad and cause mass delays...kinda scared if the movie industry will even survive all this.

 

I know I'm probably being too overly cynical, but it's another one of those "too hard not to be cynical" kind of days.

 

But hey, I can at least kind of see all the crazy M:I breakout predictions now? Maybe? It's definitely the strongest offering of the bunch, even if the trailers don't really have any big hook for non-fans.

At least Oppenheimer and Barbie appear to have reasonable budgets.