The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[vafrow]

9 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Ant Man 3 did...

 

And so far, in 2023, we've got 1 officially in each category - over $400M (technically over $500M) - Mario, over $300M - GOTG, and over $200M - Ant Man, with Spidey and Mermaid to slot - and just 4 in over $100M - Creed, Wick, Scream, Fast X...so, it's early to declare this won't be the year of $200-$300M movies:)...especially with tracking folks thinking June post Spidey is the disappointment zone...

 

I know. It was the first since 2021. But even then, it came pretty close to missing.

 

It's not that things can't land in that range. It just feels like it's a common place where people forecast things to land, but few actually do. They either really overperform, or they fall flat.

 

I just find it's a range a lot of people forecast films to land, but few actually do.

[Starphanluke]

18 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

A tacked on Transformers movie beating Indy 5 was not on my "summer bingo card".

I think it's time to slow our roll on the "Flash and Indy bombs" talk. Transformers doing over it's disastrous early expectations and those underperforming a bit doesn't put them in the same boat lmao.

[Austin]

1 hour ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

I guess people need to put respect to Dwayne Johnson's name.

 

He's a legit movie star if Flash opens to anyways near Black Adam.

 

WB filled Flash with every padding possible while Black Adam had only him.

You actually kinda have a point. But turns out not even "franchise viagra" could save the DCEU.

 

Edited June 8, 2023 by Austin

[vafrow]

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

Absolutely with you on this (see below)

 

There is a stat I've thrown out a few times, including in my (now apparently boring) Indy 5 under club

 

So we're now on 2+ years of having that void, though more like ~18 months as more a return to normal. It looks like TLM is going to be the first film to fill that gap, officially lowering the threshold for the upper bound (but with some significant and atypical underperformance in some audience demos, kinda feels like an asterisk there and the "rule" still mostly holds). ASTV looks likely to shoot above it, Flash and Indy certainly trending to fall below the lower threshold

 

That just leaves (IMO) MI7 and Barbie as possible $340M+ movies (or $300M+ or whatever top tier value cut-off you want to use) for the summer, and if I had to bet on one, it would be on Barbie as something new/different and potentially hitting the zeitgeist rather than the 7th film in an action franchise growing by 50% from the previous installment (unless there really is some major TGM carry-over effect)

 

It's really convenient to have someone detail my thoughts for me like this. 

 

Although, I have MI7 as the more likely to break the upper barrier. I have Barbie landing at just under $200M personally, but, my guesses have been horrible this year.

 

One added point is that Guardians 3 went from being an expected top grosser, to the opening weekend making it look like it was going to fall in that rare mid range. Only to hold better than any other recent Marvel film to safely clear the upper threshold. It's been quite the ride on that one.

[M37]

Hmm. 1.5 updates in, and Transformers maybe looking like the presence of EA shows - but with limited seating available - helped to bump up the Thursday sales on Wed, and it may not have quite the explosive final day the overall growth rate trend-line suggested 

 

Still think $8M Thursday is in play, but I’d probably take the under right now, if/until we get more updates 

Edited June 8, 2023 by M37

[RamblinRed]

Some are putting alot of faith in Margot Robbie. She really hasn't had many hit movies.

Her last $100M+ film was Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, which grossed $142.5M and that had DiCaprio and Pitt in it.

 

Suicide Squad (2016) is the only film she has been in that grossed over $145M and that was driven by Will Smith.

She's only had a significant role in 4 films that grossed more than $100M.

 

 

[GOGODanca]

1 minute ago, RamblinRed said:

Some are putting alot of faith in Margot Robbie. She really hasn't had many hit movies.

Her last $100M+ film was Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, which grossed $142.5M and that had DiCaprio and Pitt in it.

 

Suicide Squad (2016) is the only film she has been in that grossed over $145M and that was driven by Will Smith.

She's only had a significant role in 4 films that grossed more than $100M.

 

 

I think most are putting faith in the Barbie brand and Greta/Noah making something solid, this board more than any other knows Robbie has no drawing power

[Inceptionzq]

58 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

when did oppenheimer general presales start? I want to do a 24 hour check

6AM PT/9AM ET I believe

[Austin]

6 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

I think most are putting faith in the Barbie brand and Greta/Noah making something solid, this board more than any other knows Robbie has no drawing power

I don't want to derail too much from tracking, but does any actor have drawing power nowadays? Maybe Cruise? Everything seems so IP and brand driven BO wise. Directors probably have much more pull than actors do now.

Edited June 8, 2023 by Austin

[GOGODanca]

3 minutes ago, Austin said:

I don't want to derail too much from tracking, but does any actor have drawing power nowadays? Maybe Cruise? Everything seems so IP and brand driven BO wise. Directors probably have much more pull than actors do now.

Dicaprio

Sandra Bullock

The Rock pretty much by himself got BA a decent OW

[PrinceRico]

Indy is looking to be a disaster and The Flash is looking to be a big disappointment. What a 360 from a few months ago. 

[rehpyc]

I've unfortunately only have had limited time to look at things, but yesterday continued a 3-day streak of AtSV level daily increases. If the walk-up to presale ratio today is okay to good, wagering a 5.1 - 5.2M true Thursday. If they're a strong Black Adam/Fast X level, 5.8 - 5.9M. There'd need to be about a 200% T-0 from T-1 increase for something around 6.5M, and I figure 1.5M in early access sales, to reach a 8M Thursday.

[Austin]

19 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

Dicaprio

Sandra Bullock

The Rock pretty much by himself got BA a decent OW

I mean yeah, Dicaprio seems to be a solid pull especially when he teams with a good/well known/respected director.

 

I just started BO stuff this year so I am not too familiar with Bullock's  BO pull post pandemic, but she was a cameo in Bullet Train and that did alright?

Edited June 8, 2023 by Austin

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Emagine Entertainment

T-0 Wednesday	4 Showings	345	+130	647
T-1 Thursday	172 Showings	1125	+256	24183

0.793

Fast X T-1

5.95M

 

T-2 Friday

296 Showings

2175

+632

40413

0.686

Fast X T-2

14.08M

 

T-3 Saturday

296 Showings

1310

+319

40301

0.752

Fast X T-3

16.92M

 

T-4 Sunday

284 Showings

667

+141

38877

1.005

Fast X T-4

16.57M

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Emagine Entertainment

T-0 Wednesday	4 Showings	345		647
T-0 Thursday	169 Showings	2344	+1219	24031

0.966

Fast X T-0

7.25M

 

T-1 Friday

297 Showings

3219

+1044

40492

0.744

Fast X T-1

15.26M

 

T-2 Saturday

296 Showings

1782

+472

40572

0.797

Fast X T-2

17.92M

 

T-3 Sunday

285 Showings

892

+225

38926

1.007

Fast X T-3

16.61M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Alamo Drafthouse

T-1 Thursday

159 Showings

2669

+535

21231

ATP:

14.46

0.648	Fast X T-1	4.86M
0.579	Black Adam T-1	4.40M
0.234	JW Dominion T-1	4.22M

 

T-2 Friday

204 Showings

2705

+605

26665

ATP:

14.43

0.560	Fast X T-2	11.50M
0.537	Black Adam T-2	10.26M
0.188	JW Dominion T-2	7.80M

 

T-3 Saturday

204 Showings

1949

+424

26698

ATP:

13.97

0.612	Fast X T-3	13.77M
0.442	Black Adam T-3	10.49M
0.144	JW Dominion T-3	6.77M

 

T-4 Sunday

185 Showings

942

+201

24534

ATP:

13.19

0.709	Fast X T-4	11.70M
0.534	Black Adam T-4	8.87M
0.118	JW Dominion T-4	4.56M

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Alamo Drafthouse

T-0 Thursday

157 Showings

4693

+2024

21032

ATP:

14.23

0.890	Fast X T-0	6.68M
0.756	Black Adam T-0	5.74M
0.304	JW Dominion T-0	5.47M

 

T-1 Friday

205 Showings

3659

+954

26820

ATP:

14.27

0.599	Fast X T-1	12.29M
0.585	Black Adam T-1	11.17M
0.206	JW Dominion T-1	8.57M

 

T-2 Saturday

206 Showings

2648

+699

27008

ATP:

13.95

0.692	Fast X T-2	15.58M
0.496	Black Adam T-2	11.75M
0.162	JW Dominion T-2	7.61M

 

T-3 Sunday

186 Showings

1343

+401

24689

ATP:

13.15

0.817	Fast X T-3	13.49M
0.617	Black Adam T-3	10.25M
0.140	JW Dominion T-3	5.39M

[Maggie]

Guys, how is Oppenheimer doing?

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

342

3169

10.79%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

256

1843

13.89%

 

Wednesday: 924(+192)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1445	305	21924	6.59%	13	135

 

1.584	Fast X T-1	11.88M
1.250	Black Adam T-1	9.50M
0.470	JW Dominion T-1	8.46M

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

493

3169

15.56%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

347

1836

18.90%

 

Wednesday: 1029(+105)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2329	884	22755	10.24%	13	139

 

1.612	Fast X T-0	12.09M
1.154	Black Adam T-0	8.77M
0.470	JW Dominion T-0	8.45M

 

I didn't get the Wednesday numbers right before showings started for Emagine, but it won't move the needle much. Maybe the Fast X comp goes up to 7.5M. Drafthouse didn't have any Wednesday showings, and it just seems to be underperforming in general. Fast X also underperformed at Drafthouse, so I'll lean on that comp heavily. Denver is doing quite well and is probably overperforming a tad. I'll ignore the Fast X comp though, it underperformed here. I'll go with 7.8M though if it's around there it'll probably just be reported as 8M.

[Krissykins]

The Blackening could be DOA. 

[cookie]

4 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

The Blackening could be DOA. 

Sub-$5m OW at this rate wouldn't be surprising.

[PrinceRico]

5 minutes ago, cookie said:

Sub-$5m OW at this rate wouldn't be surprising.

Don’t Think the studio is expecting big numbers.  They are just trying to get WOM out for when it comes to streaming. Apparently the film is really good.