The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[DAJK]

Beating The Last Knight should be considered a solid result for this movie.

[Mulder]

37 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

If Transformer can pull off some nice late-surprise, there shouldn't have any denial for Flash to replicate that. I remember even Shazam 2 had some late come back and finish above 30m when tracking once indicated slightly above 20m OW.

Don't remember that big of a gap with Shazam but others can back that up or refute that, Transformers and Flash are very different beasts though I'd say.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, Mulder said:

Don't remember that big of a gap with Shazam but others can back that up or refute that, Transformers and Flash are very different beasts though I'd say.

Shazam did improve late but its presales were so ridiculously low that there wasn't even a proper CBM comp. Not the same scenario at all for Flash.

[TwoMisfits]

Now that we're in full summer, shouldn't we get better Thursday preview walk ups for kid skewing movies?  I mean, with 2pm starts, isn't this just another full day of kid summer viewing?  So, would we expect the Friday bump to be smaller?  Thinking ahead where this may matter even more for Elemental...

[Welcbr12]

42 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

If Transformer can pull off some nice late-surprise, there shouldn't have any denial for Flash to replicate that. I remember even Shazam 2 had some late come back and finish above 30m when tracking once indicated slightly above 20m OW.

I still have hopes that Flash opens above 100M

[vafrow]

2 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Rise of the Beasts Walk Up sales update

 

Milton, Ontario

 

Surprisingly strong sales today. 

 

That Fast X comp was 0.434x as of this morning for $3.25M. With the early show about to close , without further walk ups to the late show, its now at 0.700 of Fast X for $5.25M. That'll go up as well as I got final late show numbers. This is with Transformers only having one screen, compared to the two of Fast X.

 

This is one of the stronger walk up performances I've really seen. Maybe the smoke is pushing people to indoor activities. It's still only bringing this market closer to the standard.

 

I'll try and get final numbers at the end of the night.

 

As usual, walk up activity slowed right down. Final tally is 0.759x Fast X for $5.7M.

 

Still, a great final day. More than tripled what it started the day at.

 

If this film can turn out a decent performance, it'll be held up as a good example any time someone claims a film died because of competition. This is competing directly with Spiderverse, and seemingly not collapsing. Paramount didn't have the same luck with D&D and Mario for example.

[Eric the IF]

8 hours ago, Eric Prime said:

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	111	2274	18524	12.28%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 479

 

Comp - T-1

2.558x of Uncharted (9.46M)

0.546x of Jurassic World 3 (9.83M)

0.982x of Black Adam (7.46M)

0.500x of Avatar 2 (8.5M)

0.910x of John Wick 4 (8.09M)

1.037x of Dungeons and Dragons (5.81M)

1.176x of Fast X (8.82M)

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	111	3762	18524	20.31%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,488

 

Comp

2.724x of Uncharted (10.08M)

0.598x of Jurassic World 3 (10.77M)

1.065x of Black Adam (8.09M)

0.620x of Avatar 2 (10.54M)

0.924x of John Wick 4 (8.22M)

1.464x of Dungeons and Dragons (8.2M)

1.218x of Fast X (9.14M)

[ThomasNicole]

Curious about Oppenheimer now that is selling everywhere 

 

The IMAX and PFL’s sales are simply great, it just need to be decent in everything else and it’ll be big (for this type of movie ofc)

Edited June 9, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[ZattMurdock]

1 hour ago, excel1 said:

Transformers, Flash, and Indiana Jones will all be walk-up overperformers. Watch.

I genuinely believe that Indiana Jones early tracking reactions might be overblown. There are still three weeks to go, and I think we are all underestimating how much nostalgia is one hell of a drug. Sure, it isn’t and likely won’t be an easy sell for zoomers, but judging by the latest batch of reviews, I expect we will all be singing a different tune about that film two weeks from now. Still curious how the press screenings roll out will go. Never underestimate the power of nostalgia, I have a strong hunch this one will open way higher than the current tracking is projecting. And I mean that DOM and OS.

[Legion Again]

4 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Good news pace picked up again, but a little too late? I feel like I should remove the Guardians comp (it's so far from the other comps) let me know what y'all think about it

I think it’s good to have that lower comp without a crazy final week like spiderverse. Sure it’s not actually heading for 8 in your sample but it’s not actually heading for 12.5 in your sample either — some bigger and some smaller gives a good range.

[Liiviig 1998]

23 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

I genuinely believe that Indiana Jones early tracking reactions might be overblown. There are still three weeks to go, and I think we are all underestimating how much nostalgia is one hell of a drug. Sure, it isn’t and likely won’t be an easy sell for zoomers, but judging by the latest batch of reviews, I expect we will all be singing a different tune about that film two weeks from now. Still curious how the press screenings roll out will go. Never underestimate the power of nostalgia, I have a strong hunch this one will open way higher than the current tracking is projecting. And I mean that DOM and OS.

Nostalgia ship sailed with KOCS. Still  three weeks will see  out but tracking here currently 70m number makes sense . Previews being 3pm definitely skews IM but still expect 8ish * IM.

 

TGM had way better presales and targets same audience and yeah presales were never gonna match TGM but for such an iconic franchise with heavy nostalgia element ,the  tracking should be way better like at least double digits maybe to around as high as 15m+ at best for previews

 

Didn't KOTCS open to like 25m( OD or previews? Not sure)and 150m 5 day.

 

This just like flash is WOM movie and it's sucess will depend more that than Nostalgia . KOCS did the damage.

[JpTransformers]

https://deadline.com/2023/05/transformers-rise-of-the-beasts-box-office-projection-1235371748/

 

it seems that this deadline projection was not so absurd, is it? 

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Nostalgia ship sailed with KOCS. Still  three weeks will see  out but tracking here currently 70m number makes sense . Previews being 3pm definitely skews IM but still expect 8ish * IM.

 

TGM had way better presales and targets same audience and yeah presales were never gonna match TGM but for such an iconic franchise with heavy nostalgia element ,the  tracking should be way better like at least double digits maybe to around as high as 15m+ at best for previews

 

Didn't KOTCS open to like 25m( OD or previews? Not sure)and 150m 5 day.

 

This just like flash is WOM movie and it's sucess will depend more that than Nostalgia . KOCS did the damage.

I mean, you might as well be right. But I offer a counterpoint: people don’t care about Crystal Skull, just like they don’t care about The Wolverine. It didn’t stop Logan of becoming a success, and I think there is something special about this one. When I think of Indiana Jones, I think about the trilogy, I couldn’t care less about Crystal Skull. 
 

From what I read on social media, I actually think that Dial of Destiny still has the nostalgia aspect going strong. People are rooting for the film, they want to like it. If the reviews keep coming in the same vain of yesterday and today, I think it will have an effect. Unlike Logan, this is truly Indy’s last ride.

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, JpTransformers said:

https://deadline.com/2023/05/transformers-rise-of-the-beasts-box-office-projection-1235371748/

 

it seems that this deadline projection was not so absurd, is it? 

Conventional tracking has had some big wins post SV2 with 60ish for transformers and 65ish for flash

[ThomasNicole]

Indy is the more likely movie to be walkup heavy of this month slate imo, reactions from yesterday and today screenings was much much better than at Cannes, let’s see if DIS can build some late hype.

 

I still can see it rising from 70M to 80-90M OW if they manage to do that, but it needs to start accelerate by next weekend.

 

Edited June 9, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[ZattMurdock]

8 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Indy is the more likely movie to be walkup heavy of this month slate imo, reactions from yesterday and today screenings was much much better than at Cannes, let’s see if DIS can build some late hype.

 

I still can see it rising from 70M to 80-90M OW if they manage to do that, but it needs to start accelerate by next weekend.

 

I think it will be quite walk up heavy both DOM and OS - Asia, I have no idea how Indy is perceived there. I have a feeling that the miscalculation was premiering this at Cannes and not IDK, Cinemacon. This is an old nerd event type of film, and while yeah it might not go well with zoomers, very interested to see how it will play out. It’s the one film I’m planning to watch on IMAX this year other than Marvels.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

10 hours ago, Eric Prime said:

Like I said, I'm in a "I want to be cynical" kind of mood. And I don't know if those openings for Oppy and Barbie would have them "dominate" like Nash is saying.

...because they'll both have great word of mouth most likely and hold very well throughout July and into August?

 

2 50million openings a weekend after another very likely 50m opening would be fantastic

[Lighthouse]

Rise of the Beasts 3.1

The Flash 3.4

Bad start for both in Letterboxd.

[keysersoze123]

Insane final day for Transformers for sure. It kind of pulled a Venom today after looking just ok until yesterday. 

[keysersoze123]

14 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Transformers MTC1 Previews(T-1) - 66854/700435 1215428.10 4031 shows +14223

Transformers MTC1 Previews Final - 130297/697006 2264718.05 4009 shows +63243

 

Really strong walkups today. I am thinking ~8.8m including early shows. I still dont have final MTC2 data but walkups there are even better than MTC1.

This makes me think its walkups over the weekend will be really good and get close to 60m OW.  

Edited June 9, 2023 by keysersoze123