The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[DAJK]

Yea, sales seem to be picking up here for both movies. Nothing spectacular, but I think we might be able to avoid doomsday scenario for both openers. 65 for flash could happen, as could 35 for elemental.

[M37]

3 hours ago, Relevation said:

@M37 Could you make a forecast matrix for Elemental based on the final day of sales?

Honestly not enough data to be precise and set the ranges accordingly, but something in the $2.2-$3.2M preview range, an IM of 10x+, so mostly likely a high $20M OW [like $25-$32M] is about where my head is at

 

23 minutes ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

Seems like the general consensus for Flash previews is in the 9-9.5 range. I imagine the IM is in the 5.7-6.7 range. Final OW estimate; 52-64M.

Only just got home and inputting data, but I would be above that presumed consensus for Thursday right now. Seeing a strong enough finishing kick that the $10M preview door remains slightly open IMO

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

 

THURSDAY

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
183	1904	37284	5.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

38

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-15

 

(0.370x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3

~$6.5M THUR Previews

 

(1.337x) of FAST X

~$10M THUR Previews

 

(1.543x) of TRANSFORMERS RoTB

~$13.6M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG : $10M

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

 

THURSDAY

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
183	1935	37284	5.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

29

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-14

 

(0.372x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3

~$6.5M THUR Previews

 

(1.348x) of FAST X

~$10.1M THUR Previews

 

(1.502x) of TRANSFORMERS RoTB

~$13.2M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG : $9.9M

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

OPPENHEIMER

 

THURSDAY previews

 

T-36

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
70	779	12741	6.1%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

7

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

I feel like my script may have skipped a showing or two. Seats sold today feels low 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

OPPENHEIMER

 

THURSDAY previews

 

T-35

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
70	787	12741	6.2%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

8

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

[PrinceRico]

4 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Yea, sales seem to be picking up here for both movies. Nothing spectacular, but I think we might be able to avoid doomsday scenario for both openers. 65 for flash could happen, as could 35 for elemental.

That would be doomsday scenario for Flash. 4 million above Transformers and 2 million below Black Adam.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/14/2023 at 4:14 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

No Hard Feelings

 

THURSDAY

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
38	96	4487	2.1%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

18

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Unofficial comp ~$700K

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

No Hard Feelings

 

THURSDAY

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
38	102	4487	2.3%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Unofficial comp ~$770K

[BadOlCatSylvester]

34 minutes ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

Seems like the general consensus for Flash previews is in the 9-9.5 range. I imagine the IM is in the 5.7-6.7 range. Final OW estimate; 52-64M.

Transformers ending up with a higher opening than The Flash is so awesome.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/14/2023 at 4:16 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

ASTEROID CITY

 

THURSDAY

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
21	204	2455	8.3%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

16

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

ASTEROID CITY

 

THURSDAY

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
21	253	2455	10.3%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

49

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

[PrinceRico]

1 minute ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Transformers ending up with a higher opening than The Flash is so awesome.

After weeks of doom and gloom. We was focused on the wrong movie.

[Relevation]

9 minutes ago, M37 said:

Honestly not enough data to be precise and set the ranges accordingly, but something in the $2.2-$3.2M preview range, an IM of 10x+, so mostly likely a high $20M OW [like $25-$32M] is about where my head is at

 

Only just got home and inputting data, but I would be above that presumed consensus for Thursday right now. Seeing a strong enough finishing kick that the $10M preview door remains slightly open IMO

Yikes. Was hoping it could have a stronger finish given the backloaded initial presales. I still think it could have a stronger than expected IM given the positive audience reception overseas, sooooo 13-14x to $32-45M? Maybe it’s hopedicting idk

[Relevation]

Just now, Relevation said:

Yikes. Was hoping it could have a stronger finish given the backloaded initial presales. I still think it could have a stronger than expected IM given the positive audience reception overseas, sooooo 13-14x to $32-45M? Maybe it’s hopedicting idk

Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank was the only non-IP animated summer release that I could find post-COVID, and that had a 12.39x IM. Elemental will have the Father’s Day bump to I think that gets this up to 13-14x

[ChipDerby]

11 minutes ago, PrinceRico said:

That would be doomsday scenario for Flash. 4 million above Transformers and 2 million below Black Adam.

 

What does doomsday even mean in this context? 

[XXR & Friends]

20 minutes ago, M37 said:

Only just got home and inputting data, but I would be above that presumed consensus for Thursday right now. Seeing a strong enough finishing kick that the $10M preview door remains slightly open IMO

You dare go against the dark magic of Sac’Re’Mentö……

[keysersoze123]

Barring something catastrophic with walkups(which one can never say never) I cannot see Flash Friday below high teens. But let us 1st see how walkups end today. So far its looking better than what I thought yesterday. That should not be a shocker as its heart of summer and easier for folks to just walk in to see the movie. 

 

Anyway 

MTC1 Flash Friday - 95790/1015696 1678412.04 5621 shows // about an hour back and add

 

MTC1 Elemental Previews - 37335/340908 540281.89 2515 shows  

 

This is as of 20 minutes back. It should finish around 50K and ~ 2.5m. It should be higher based on tickets sold but ATP is lower without that many PLF. 

[Mulder]

10 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

 

What does doomsday even mean in this context? 

A movie heavily featuring Batman with a big budget opening in the 60s (If that's how the numbers shape up) is not good no matter how you slice it. Justice League was a flop with a 90 million OW, this is opening even worse 6 years later. 

[vafrow]

13 hours ago, vafrow said:

T-1 Flash Thursday preview update

 

Milton, ON

 

Flash finally had a good day. Just under 40% growth to get to 75 tickets sold. Still off the pace of comps to land closer to what others are seeing, but, it is in range to catch it with its own good walk up rate.

 

0.987x of Fast X for $7.4M

2.273x of ROTB for $17.3M

0.294x of ATSV for $5.1M

0.401 of GOTG3 for $7.0M

 

In terms of walk ups, if this sees a 100% walk up rate, it would land in a $9.5M range like we're seeing elsewhere. That type of walk up is generally rare  but we saw Transformers hit it. It doesn't feel out of the question.

 

Flash T-0, Milton, Ontario

 

As of close of early shows. Using my final sales comps though, so amounts will likely increase a bit, but historically, rarely above 10%, but I'll try and update later

 

Final sales as of early show close is 109, with a 45% day of increase, which is on the low end of my expectations.

 

Comps are converging, just not at a number that aligns to other trackers, but feels internally consistent.

 

0.796x of Fast X for $6.0M

0.982x of ROTB for $7.5M

0.321x of ATSV for $5.6M

0.413 of GOTG3 for $7.2M

0.872 of John Wick 4 for $7.8M

 

Some quick observations

 

Unless everyone else is wildly off, my theatre is just a place where this is underperforming. My biggest theory is that being a market where school is still in session, it's depressing the Thursday sales. But, Friday to Sunday doesn't particularly look strong.

 

I also wonder if the lack of appeal for kids is hurting this market that has a lot of young families. JW4 being an adult focused film as the best comp supports to some degree, but still well below consensus.

 

I'll check in later tonight with an update on where final figures land. 

Edited June 15, 2023 by vafrow

[GOGODanca]

41 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank was the only non-IP animated summer release that I could find post-COVID, and that had a 12.39x IM. Elemental will have the Father’s Day bump to I think that gets this up to 13-14x

why are we expecting a little kids movie to get a bump on fathers day? wouldn't dads choose spider-verse,flash or beasts instead?

[harrisonisdead]

16 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

why are we expecting a little kids movie to get a bump on fathers day? wouldn't dads choose spider-verse,flash or beasts instead?

It's a family movie. Plenty of fathers have young children and see the day as an opportunity to do things as a family.

[GOGODanca]

1 minute ago, harrisonisdead said:

It's a family movie. Plenty of fathers have young children and see the day as an opportunity to do things as a family.

last year on fathers day light year dropped 14.4% on its first sunday with monday a fed holiday, top gun maverick grew almost 12% and Jurassic world dominion dropped only 5%, i don't think elementals will get any thing out of the ordinary in terms of boost on FD

[JpTransformers]

 

In the time I've been here, things for Flash have gone from great to disaster in no time.

Definitely my initial guess of 75m+ looks dead.

 

To complete the film is falling in audience approval on Rotten (95% -> 88%) and has just over 100 verified reviews