The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Bob Train]

If Top Gun didn't explode, last summer would have been abysmal. Only Rise of Gru did well. Lightyear was a flop, MCU had no legs, Dominion didn't come close to it's true potential, and nothing in Late July/August. Tom Cruise saved cinemas.

[WebSurfer]

What's elemental looking like?

[GOGODanca]

2 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

they underperformed relative to precovid expectations. their performance should have shaped the broader understanding of the new normal a bit more than they did. 

they all "underperformed" due to quality but especially thor, if that movie was ragnarok level, it would have hit a billion even w/o china

[Johnny Tran]

10 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

Flash is looking to finish right around 200-205k tickets tonight.

6/2022- Jurassic World 250k tickets = $17.5m / $70 per ticket

10/2022 - Black Adam 144k tickets =$7.6m / $52.7 per ticket

 

These comps would give Flash a range of $10.5 & $14m for previews. 

 

We know that Flash avg. ticket price is about 5% ahead of Black Adam already, and it also the many early week screenings which are probably another $1-1.5m. 

 

The math aint the complicated. 177k tickets current x $52.7 + 5% + 1.5m gets one to $11.3m. And it has another 20-25k worth of ticketed still to come. 

 

Can anyone confirm that this math checks out?  This dude is cool and all but he's made some hyperbolic statements in the past,  as recently as a half hour ago. 

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Johnny Tran said:

 

Can anyone confirm that this math checks out?  This dude is cool and all but he's made some hyperbolic statements in the past,  as recently as a half hour ago. 

Nah.ignore excel.

[Joyous Legion]

1 minute ago, Johnny Tran said:

 

Can anyone confirm that this math checks out?  This dude is cool and all but he's made some hyperbolic statements in the past,  as recently as a half hour ago. 

Forget it Johnny, it’s exceltown

[screambaby]

Lost summer to me is some of these movies could make up to 800 million WW and stil be a flop cause thier budgets are so high

 

Right now the only profitable are spidey and maybe guardians

Edited June 16, 2023 by screambaby

[Rocketracoon]

14 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

Flash is looking to finish right around 200-205k tickets tonight.

6/2022- Jurassic World 250k tickets = $17.5m / $70 per ticket

10/2022 - Black Adam 144k tickets =$7.6m / $52.7 per ticket

 

These comps would give Flash a range of $10.5 & $14m for previews. 

 

We know that Flash avg. ticket price is about 5% ahead of Black Adam already, and it also the many early week screenings which are probably another $1-1.5m. 

 

The math aint the complicated. 177k tickets current x $52.7 + 5% + 1.5m gets one to $11.3m. And it has another 20-25k worth of ticketed still to come. 

 

If it hits the higher end of the projection is 80m a possibility?

[excel1]

1 minute ago, screambaby said:

Lost summer to me is some of these movies could make up to 800 million WW and stil be a flop cause thier budgets are so high

 

That isn't lost summer, thats dumb studio management 

[ThomasNicole]

wtf is happening here, i swear this is looking like a chaotic weekend thread, maybe is best to just create the damn flash weekend thread 

[XXR & Friends]

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban. 

 

Anyone else continues, it's points. 

[dudalb]

11 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

 

Can anyone confirm that this math checks out?  This dude is cool and all but he's made some hyperbolic statements in the past,  as recently as a half hour ago. 

 

We have, , as of  8 O CLock Pacific time, no  numbers on The FLash previews yet.

Edited June 16, 2023 by dudalb

[abracadabra1998]

Not to take away focus from these excel hot takes...

 

But I'm bringing back my twin cities tracking! You may remember last summer/fall I started doing that, but then had to take a step back due to my job (middle school teaching is hard...). I never really stopped lurking, and always kept an eye on the theaters I track, so I feel good about starting back up. I know we're all focused on the Flash and Elemental train rn, but I set up my tracking for Indy, MI7, and a couple others, I'll share those numbers tomorrow. Excited to add some Upper Midwest numbers.

Edited June 16, 2023 by abracadabra1998

[DC Rich]

2 hours ago, Eric Prime said:

Like I said before, this will be the last film that I will track for a while, as I'm going on a hiatus from the tracking team. It's a tough combination of wanting a better work-life balance, which I feel tracking does not help accomplish, as well as my own dissatisfaction and frustrations with tracking in general. I hope to perhaps one day return to this domain, but I think it's better for my own mental health and personal life if I take time away from this.

 

Thank you to everybody who has been following me and my reports over the last few years, as far back as 2017, and thank you as always to my fellow Tracking Team/Think Tank members for the incredible work you lot do each and every day. I can't say when I'll be back, but I hope to return to the practice sometime soon when I have a better schedule and a stronger passion for the job.
 

However, I will be doing updates for everybody on The Quorum and how their awareness/interest metrics track with other releases, so I won't be away from this thread. Just going to be taking a backseat. I hope you all understand and will still be happy with the new, far lighter work I have planned for this thread.

 

I wish we could pick more than one reaction sometimes.  I like and thank you for all the work you have done here for the several years that I have followed this site.  I am sad that you are cutting back on the tracking and will miss your updates but completely respect your decision to do so.  I'm glad that you will still be around.  I wish you the very best in finding what you are looking for and what you need.  Life is too short.  Always pursue what makes you happy.  

[ThatWaluigiDude]

I think we, as a society, should now all leave Flash behind and unite to track Ruby Gillman.

[keysersoze123]

Elemental MTC1 Previews Final - 45367/341483 661617.29 2521 shows

 

~2.4m previews. 

[M37]

9 hours ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

I think we, as a society, should now all leave Flash behind and unite to track Ruby Gillman.

Ruby Gillman (edit) T-14 Tampa/St Pete 

Tickets Sold = 13

Yes, this is a real count 

 

Comps:

I suppose I do need to stat delving into Indy numbers now …

Edited June 16, 2023 by M37

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

Ruby Gillman T-7 Tampa/St Pete 

Tickets Sold = 13

Yes, this is a real count 

 

Comps:

I suppose I do need to stat delving into Indy numbers now …

its releasing a week later or 2 weeks later?

[Bob Train]

Really curious on the IM of Elemental. Could see anything from 9x to 14x. We haven't had many original animated films post-pandemic.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

21 minutes ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

I think we, as a society, should now all leave Flash behind and unite to track Ruby Gillman.

Nah bro, No Hard Feelings is the real deal.