The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[XXR & Friends]

4 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Why would Rise of The Beasts drop 65%? The WOM seems good, it's at 90% verified RT score and has an A- CinemaScore.

 

Maybe not 65% but I assume it's losing almost all of its PLF's to The Flash so I would expect something in the 55-60% range.

[Mulder]

Just now, XXRptimus Primal said:

 

Maybe not 65% but I assume it's losing almost all of its PLF's to The Flash so I would expect something in the 55-60% range.

Yeah I'm thinking high 50s too but 65% is an insanely high drop for a movie that seems to be getting decent WOM. Hell I wouldn't be TOO surprised if its drop is more low 50s tbh.

[Joyous Legion]

1 hour ago, 21C said:

I don't think I've seen that many people here arguing vehemently against an opening in the mid 70s or the low 80s. I think everyone's aware both of those are reasonable possibilities at the moment.

Hi. It’s me. I’m the “arguing vehemently against mid 70s or low 80s and saying more people should be aware they probably aren’t reasonable possibilities at the moment” it’s me.

 

Edit: FWIW about the larger “is he rest of summer doomed?” stuff, I feel like the middle of Indy U has actually been…pretty fine? Like it could still do 10.5*8.5 or something, maybe? Partially that is just higher uncertainty from being two weeks farther and genre differences, but still.

Edited June 11, 2023 by Into the Legion-Verse

[emoviefan]

34 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Nobody's said Oppenheimer will make 300 million. If the summer movie season doesn't have another 300 million grosser after Spider-Verse, well that's on Hollywood. Not on trackers for just...stating facts. You seem to be upset at this thread for not blindly professing everything's fine for Flash and Indy when well...it isn't. 

That was not my intention to come off as upset at the trackers on this thread. I think they do a great job with the numbers and data they are given. And I acknowledge that things do not look great for Flash or Indy at this moment. I just feel that some people on this forum doom and gloom up until they cant doom and gloom any more if a movie beats their pessimistic feelings. I know their are other posters on this forum who will back me up on this.  I will choose  to be optimistic that these movies will beat and overperform what the current data shows until it is not possible for me to do anymore.  

[Joyous Legion]

14 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Yeah I'm thinking high 50s too but 65% is an insanely high drop for a movie that seems to be getting decent WOM. Hell I wouldn't be TOO surprised if its drop is more low 50s tbh.

Only got partial PLFs this weekend and should see big Father’s Day business, I am expecting low 50s for now

[ringedmortality]

I think MI can squeeze by 300DOM

[filmlover]

Unless it's a movie expected to sell out everywhere instantly ala No Way Home, I never rush to get tickets until a few days before at the earliest given that plans could change at the last minute.

[lorddemaxus]

4 hours ago, emoviefan said:

Shawn my biggest question is who are the people buying tickets 5 weeks early for Oppenheimer. Chrstopher Nolan is my favorite active director and I sill have not bought tickets for that nor will I until a few days to release. Mission Impossible is my favorite Action Adventure franchise and I will not be buying tickets for that on Wednesday when tickets go on sale.  A few days before release. I think I will be good.  I am guessing there are a lot of people out there like me. The Flash probably Thursday or so for a saturday showing.  I guess this is my long winded way of saying I think the dogma some around here some have about presales  and that the Flash and Indy 5 are either going to bomb or be massive disappointments because presales aren't great is a little frustrating . 

I did because 70mm shows were at least 50% filled up 4 hrs after sales opened up for them. I even bought tix for 3 different days because I wasn't sure which day all my friends could make it.

[filmlover]

Elemental now up to 72% on RT now after starting in the 50s while Indiana Jones seems to be creeping up to Fresh status after all. Really starting to appear that the Cannes premieres for these movies were a bad idea after all, even if neither seems headed for a true breakout regardless.

[Eric is Quiet]

On 6/9/2023 at 8:32 PM, Eric Prime said:

The Flash Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	98	1938	18907	10.25%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 85

 

Comp - T-7

0.324x of The Batman (7M)

0.866x of Jurassic World 3 (15.59M)

0.288x of Thor 4 (8.35M)

1.878x of Black Adam (14.27M)

0.717x of Avatar 2 (12.19M)

0.386x of Ant-Man 3 (6.75M)

0.496x of Guardians 3 (8.67M)

0.820x of Spider-Verse (14.23M)

The Flash Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	98	2155	18907	11.40%

 

Total Seats Sold The Past Two Days: 217

 

Comp - T-5

0.331x of The Batman (7.15M)

0.862x of Jurassic World 3 (15.52M)

0.295x of Thor 4 (8.55M)

1.732x of Black Adam (13.16M)

0.713x of Avatar 2 (12.13M)

0.398x of Ant-Man 3 (6.97M)

0.483x of Guardians 3 (8.45M)

0.797x of Spider-Verse (13.83M)

[Menor the Destroyer]

Yeah I think Indy is doing ok. 100m still possible on higher end.

[filmlover]

BTW a lot of theaters are listing sneak preview showings for No Hard Feelings next Saturday at 7 (tickets aren't on sale yet). Seems like a sign the studio expects good reviews/WOM.

 

Weekly Roundup - Week of 6/9/23 (google.com)

Edited June 11, 2023 by filmlover

[GOGODanca]

,How do Indiana Jones presales compare to Top Gun's/NTTD at the same point?

[Joyous Legion]

54 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I did because 70mm shows were at least 50% filled up 4 hrs after sales opened up for them. I even bought tix for 3 different days because I wasn't sure which day all my friends could make it.

You heard it here first folks, 2/3 of Oppenheimer’s tickets will disappear when the wave-function collapses

Edited June 11, 2023 by Into the Legion-Verse

[keysersoze123]

On 6/9/2023 at 2:39 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Oppenheimer MTC1 

Previews - 21813/256594 443915.07 1244 shows

Friday - 17547/467112 347246.77 2210 shows

 

I think its solid though show count is still quite low. 

Oppenheimer MTC1 

Previews(T-40) - 23392/260078 473967.22 1271 shows

Friday -18925/472401 372490.21 2249 shows 

 

This is more than a day of data. It will plod along until close to release or when there are catalysts like reviews/ 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Elemental Sacto Report  [T-6]

349/9492 (3.68% sold) [+43 tickets]

0.43734x GBA            at T-6     [1.97m]

0.33429x Sonic 2      at T-6     [2.09m]

0.34317x Minions 2  at T-6      [3.69m]

0.51248x Nope         at T-6      [3.28m]

0.65478x Shazam 2  at T-6     [2.23m]

 

 

Quick and Dirty Elemental Sacto Report  [T-5]

383/9492 (4.03% sold) [+34 tickets]

0.41363x GBA            at T-5     [1.87m]

0.32212x Sonic 2      at T-5      [2.01m]

0.33189x Minions 2  at T-5      [3.57m]

0.50329x Nope         at T-5      [3.22m]

0.67311x Shazam 2  at T-5       [2.29m]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Oppenheimer Sacto Report [T-41]

476/7574 [6.28% sold] [+33 tickets] [+23 PLF | +10 Stand] [50 showings]

 

Oppenheimer Sacto Report [T-40]

512/7572 [6.76% sold] [+36 tickets] [50 showings]

70mm:              286/776   [+17 tickets] [55.86% of all tickets sold]

All other PLF:   186/3558 [+14 tickets] [36.33% of all tickets sold]

Standard:         40/3238   [+5 tickets]      [7.81% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Gee... I wonder if there is a slight possibility of Sacto over-performing for some reason.

Edited June 11, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-20 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	124	18546	19521	975	4.99%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

43

 

T-20 Comps:

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	49.22		101	1981		0/184	22826/24807	7.99%		10966	8.89%		8.86m
FX	121.88		15	800		0/182	26910/27710	2.89%		8363	11.66%		9.14m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     185/6084  [3.04% sold]
Matinee:    59/1728  [3.41% | 6.05% of all tickets sold]

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-19 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	124	18498	19521	1023	5.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

48

 

T-19 Comps:

	%		Sold T-19	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	49.49		86	2067		0/184	22740/24807	8.33%		10966	9.33%		8.91m
FX	126.14		11	811		0/182	26899/27710	2.93%		8363	12.23%		9.46m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     192/6084  [3.16% sold]
Matinee:    61/1728  [3.53% | 5.96% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	23257	25145	1888	7.51%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

154

 

T-6 Comps:

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	34.95		220	5402		0/297	31388/36790	14.68%		11757	16.06%		7.55m
BA	124.13		124	1521		0/163	22454/23975	6.34%		4494	42.01%		9.43m
Shazam 2	354.22		33	533		0/107	16477/17010	3.13%		1663	113.53%		12.04m
Wick 4	99.47		154	1898		0/113	13673/15571	12.19%		5448	34.65%		8.85m
AtSV	57.30		266	3295		0/142	19179/22474	14.66%		9744	19.38%		9.94m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     327/5286  [6.19% sold]
Matinee:    46/2140  [2.15% | 2.44% of all tickets sold]

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	23122	25145	2023	8.05%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

135

 

T-5 Comps:

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	35.79		251	5653		0/297	31137/36790	15.37%		11757	17.21%		7.73m
BA	121.14		149	1670		0/169	22641/24311	6.87%		4494	45.02%		9.21m
Shazam 2	355.54		36	569		0/108	16542/17111	3.33%		1663	121.65%		12.09m
Wick 4	98.01		166	2064		0/118	14480/16544	12.48%		5448	37.13%		8.72m
AtSV	56.62		278	3573		0/142	18901/22474	15.90%		9744	20.76%		9.82m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     344/5286  [6.51% sold]
Matinee:    46/2140  [2.15% | 2.27% of all tickets sold]

[Joyous Legion]

23 hours ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

Still getting some sheets back end up to do this more conveniently for each region each day, but here’s the last few days for my “size-adjusted avg comp” for Sacto:

T-12 9.16M

T-11 9.28M

T-10 9.3M

T-9 9.55M

T-8 9.6M

T-7 9.4M

T-6 9.5M  

T-5 9.45M

 

So today was basically fine under that view — in fact things have been pretty stable, which is the hope. 
 

Fwiw, without Shazam (the biggest size outlier):

T-12 9.61M

T-11 9.64M

T-10 9.58M

T-9 9.72M

T-8 9.71M

T-7 9.31M

T-6 9.3M

T-5 9.14M

New in bold