The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[raegr]

for my mental health and excitement for the flash i need to just take a step away from this forum. too much for me 

[YM!]

15 minutes ago, AJG said:

Is the Ruby Gillman number low enough for you people to finally accept there isn’t a ‘Disney+ is hurting BO’ problem it’s just that original animation is dead (and nobody should be spending $200m to produce it)?

Wow, the movie they took an entire span of just under three months to market and didn’t even attach to Mario is opening under 10M? I’m shocked. 
 

Call me back when Migration does at least 100m+ domestic. Tbh can easily see that doing 150-200m.

Edited June 13, 2023 by YM!

[Cappoedameron]

woof...

 

[Mulder]

3 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Also I feel Indiana Jones will  be fine if the general regular critics continue to be more positive than the snooty critics at Cannes. That should be enough for the older casual walkup moviegoers to get off the fence on what will be a 5 day extended weekend for a lot of people. As for the Flash maybe there is just too much baggage to overcome in the end. Of course all this doom and gloom is happening right after Transformers proved how worthless tracking and presales can be sometimes. 

Rise of The Beasts was trending upwards at this point in time. We were seeing shifts in its performance that indicated last minute interest and then the Thursday of we were seeing those walk-ups in action. Before the weekend everyone was pretty set on it opening in the 50s being a genuine possibility, and then it overperformed by 5-6 million. Let's say Flash does that, if we're thinking 65 that only puts it in 70/71. If we're thinking 70/71 that puts its in 75/76. If we're thinking 75 that puts it in 80/81. None of these numbers are good, just various degrees of bad and that's just ignoring how the tracking is not suggesting this.

[WebSurfer]

https://twitter.com/hollywoodhandle/status/1668389587062800385?cxt=HHwWgoC2va3fp6cuAAAA

[XXR & Friends]

Tracking thread is getting off topic again....

 

This isn't a discussion thread..........

 

 

[Reddroast]

23 minutes ago, AJG said:

Is the Ruby Gillman number low enough for you people to finally accept there isn’t a ‘Disney+ is hurting BO’ problem it’s just that original animation is dead (and nobody should be spending $200m to produce it)?

Didn't they announce it back in April? 2 months of marketing isn't enough

[Joyous Legion]

58 minutes ago, M37 said:

Not going to do an updated chart and/or forecast

make funny GIFs like this at MakeaGif

 

Legion Flash OW ForecastMatrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$8.50	$8.80	$9.10	$9.40	$9.70	$10.00	$10.30	$10.60	$10.90
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.4	$45.90	$47.52	$49.14	$50.76	$52.38	$54.00	$55.62	$57.24	$58.86
	5.6	$47.60	$49.28	$50.96	$52.64	$54.32	$56.00	$57.68	$59.36	$61.04
	5.8	$49.30	$51.04	$52.78	$54.52	$56.26	$58.00	$59.74	$61.48	$63.22
	6	$51.00	$52.80	$54.60	$56.40	$58.20	$60.00	$61.80	$63.60	$65.40
	6.2	$52.70	$54.56	$56.42	$58.28	$60.14	$62.00	$63.86	$65.72	$67.58
	6.4	$54.40	$56.32	$58.24	$60.16	$62.08	$64.00	$65.92	$67.84	$69.76
	6.6	$56.10	$58.08	$60.06	$62.04	$64.02	$66.00	$67.98	$69.96	$71.94
	6.8	$57.80	$59.84	$61.88	$63.92	$65.96	$68.00	$70.04	$72.08	$74.12
	7	$59.50	$61.60	$63.70	$65.80	$67.90	$70.00	$72.10	$74.20	$76.30

 

Edit: FWIW you can take the penultimate values on each direction of each axis as my 80% credence interval

Edited June 13, 2023 by Into the Legion-Verse

[TwoMisfits]

12 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

woof...

 

 

One thing I will say - Universal isn't dumb.  I see some price strategies being employed over the next 2 weeks to try to push folks in, unless they think they have a loser quality wise...

 

Edit to Add:  And while I said my 2 locals single screened it, I did a 50 mile Atom check for my area - even the 22 and 24 screen places are only starting presales at a single screen...so Universal will have its work cut out for it if it wants to salvage an open...

Edited June 13, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[DAJK]

Ruby Gillman tracking so low doesn't surprise me, nor does it indicate the death of original animation. It simply looks bad, and hasn't had any marketing on top of that. When a movie has such low awareness, and those that do know it exists think it looks bad, of course it will track low. Audiences being more selective isn't the same as "theatres are dead." 

[XXR & Friends]

Lemme know if I missed moving any non-tracking/tracking related comments. The best way to keep the streets clean is with the help of fine citizens like yourself

 

 

[vafrow]

13 minutes ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

make funny GIFs like this at MakeaGif

 

Legion Flash OW ForecastMatrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$8.50	$8.80	$9.10	$9.40	$9.70	$10.00	$10.30	$10.60	$10.90
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.4	$45.90	$47.52	$49.14	$50.76	$52.38	$54.00	$55.62	$57.24	$58.86
	5.6	$47.60	$49.28	$50.96	$52.64	$54.32	$56.00	$57.68	$59.36	$61.04
	5.8	$49.30	$51.04	$52.78	$54.52	$56.26	$58.00	$59.74	$61.48	$63.22
	6	$51.00	$52.80	$54.60	$56.40	$58.20	$60.00	$61.80	$63.60	$65.40
	6.2	$52.70	$54.56	$56.42	$58.28	$60.14	$62.00	$63.86	$65.72	$67.58
	6.4	$54.40	$56.32	$58.24	$60.16	$62.08	$64.00	$65.92	$67.84	$69.76
	6.6	$56.10	$58.08	$60.06	$62.04	$64.02	$66.00	$67.98	$69.96	$71.94
	6.8	$57.80	$59.84	$61.88	$63.92	$65.96	$68.00	$70.04	$72.08	$74.12
	7	$59.50	$61.60	$63.70	$65.80	$67.90	$70.00	$72.10	$74.20	$76.30

 

It's a good thing that Reddit has gone dark for the day as this chart would have brought that site down.

[Dragoncaine]

The Flash, Elemental, and No Hard Feelings

[rehpyc]

Still a bit new to this and learning, but why do we think the Thurs. to OW multiplier for The Flash would be around 6 vs. 7?

[XXR & Friends]

5 minutes ago, rehpyc said:

Still a bit new to this and learning, but why do we think the Thurs. to OW multiplier for The Flash would be around 6 vs. 7?

 

CBM's of established characters are typically in the 6-8 range as is, and this is coming out during the summer which means more people are free to watch before the evening on Thursday and Friday. 

If the 19th wasn't a federal holiday, the IM would probably be under 5.5... 

[filmlover]

Ruby Gillman: Teenage Kraken is such a lame title for a movie lmao. No one should be surprised it's looking to be a dumped flop.

[Joyous Legion]

3 minutes ago, XXRptimus Primal said:

 

CBM's of established characters are typically in the 6-8 range as is, and this is coming out during the summer which means more people are free to watch before the evening on Thursday and Friday. 

If the 19th wasn't a federal holiday, the IM would probably be under 5.5... 

Also EAs hurt slightly (though at their size it won’t be a big factor) and most importantly Fri presale comps looking soft (though presales from beyond th always have to be handled with care and taken with some large error bars)

[Eric is Quiet]

[MotionPictured]

I need some clarification here. Matt Belloni says his tracking numbers are from NRG. Was that the same company that was reporting tracking for Spiderverse at $80 million? Or were those numbers directly from the studio (which have been known to lowball their estimates).

What did NRG say about Spiderverse because that would really help to understand their accuracy haha

[JpTransformers]

4 hours ago, Eric Prime said:

 

I expected something under 100m, but under 70m it would be a disaster. I'll keep my bets at 74-86m