The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[el sid]

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One counted yesterday for Tuesday, July 11 - 22 days to go:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 161 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 123 (10 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 7 (5 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 9 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 4 (6 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 306 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 554 (13 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.164.

Comps (I wonder if Thursday or Friday presales are the better comps here?): Avatar 2 (17M from previews/36.2M true Friday/134.1M OW) had after 1 day (= M: I had more time but after the first rush the numbers don't change drastically) 1.719 sold tickets for Thursday = 68% for M: I.
Dune (5.1/12.4M/41M) had after 1 day 1.038 sold tickets for Thursday (Dune had very good presales in my theaters).
TG: M (19.3M/32.7M/126.7M) had on Monday of the release week 2.743 sold tickets for Friday.
JW: D (18/41.55M/145.1M) had with 16 days to go (= 6 days left for M: I) 1.839 sold tickets for Friday = 63% at the moment for M: I with 6 days left.
And Fast X (7.5/20.5M/67M) had with also 22 respectively 23 days left 857 (for Thursday) and 564 (for Friday) sold tickets.

Looks decent in my theaters.

[Tinalera]

INDY 5

Thurs Jun 29 Fri June 30 (T-10

Vancouver and Calgary Canada

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	3	18	234	3693	3927	0.0595
	Fri	3	22	265	4845	5110	0.0518
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	4	20	210	3678	3888	0.0540
	Fri	4	26	313	4819	5132	0.0609

 

Fast X (and ironically I missed DnD for T-10 sheesh lol)

 

t-10		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	4	20	167	4003	4170	0.0400
	Fri	4	25	293	5113	5406	0.0541
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	4	27	151	4612	4763	0.0317
	Fri	4	27	242	5017	5259	0.0460

 

	V T V F C T  C F INDY5 3927 5110 3888 5132 FAST X 4107 5406 4763 5259 Diff -180 -296 -875 -127

again sorry about that-glad I caught it (eventually) sigh....

Edited June 20, 2023 by Tinalera
Wrong comparison correction

[rehpyc]

On 6/19/2023 at 9:00 PM, rehpyc said:

Indy T-12

Ava2: 5.50M

NTTD: 9.89M

TG:M: 5.46M

GA: 13.66M

GA: 11.79M *Market adjusted

Uncharted: 21.38M

JW:D: 8.49M

JW4: 12.84M

Flash: 7.77M

TLM: 10.74M

 

Indy T-11

Ava2: 5.41

NTTD: 9.58M

TGM: 5.31M

GA: 13.44M

GA: 11.52M *Market adjusted

Uncharted: 20.67M

JW:D: 8.35M

JW4: 12.62M

Flash: 7.78M

TLM: 10.53M

 

Between T-21 and T-11 The Flash as a comp has sat around 7.6M - 7.8M as the growth rate has been very similar.

 

Indy T-10

NTTD: 9.22M

GA: 10.90M

JWD: 8.25M

JW4: 12.26M

Flash: 7.77M

TLM: 10.12M

 

Market adjusted Ghostbusters: Afterlife. The Flash continuing to be consistent.

Edited June 21, 2023 by rehpyc
Added TLM

[kayumanggi]

 

[Tinalera]

UM.....I may have may have made a small boo boo.....

 

First off, The INDY 5 numbers themselves are fine, no issue, but Im going to be re-editing the comps because....well for some strange reason I was going off of T-7 numbers instead of.....er.....T-10 for movies...

 

The previous entries for Indy are fine, no problem, but I have to re-do the comps, and how about that there IS a Fast X for T-10....huh...ahem

 

Ill just edit the original post with Proper T-10 comps....again....whoopsie!

[Eric is Anxious]

Quorum Updates

Asteroid City T-4: 25.76% Awareness

Insidious: The Red Door T-18: 45.26% Awareness

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1 T-23: 50.24% Awareness

The Creator T-102: 12.91% Awareness

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom T-184: 49.66% Awareness

 

No Hard Feelings T-4: 38.83% Awareness

Final Awareness: 35% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 25% chance of 10M

 

Oppenheimer T-32: 29.29% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 51% chance of 10M, 19% chance of 20M, 2% chance of 40M

Original - High Awareness: 50% chance of 10M

 

Haunted Mansion T-39: 36.95% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 86% chance of 10M, 57% chance of 20M, 38% chance of 30M, 14% chance of 40M

Known IP Awareness: 75% chance of 10M, 50% chance of 30M

 

Blue Beetle T-60: 24.68% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 56% chance of 10M, 27% chance of 20M, 12% chance of 30M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 70M

 

Still combing through the Interest section and reconfiguing stuff with that category, so we will have to use awareness for the time being.

[el sid]

Oppenheimer counted today for Thursday, July 20 - 30 days to go:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 148 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 178 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 7 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (1 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 12 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 388 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 985 (9 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.718.

Comps: Avatar 2 (17M from previews/36.2M true Friday/134.1M OW) had after 1 day (= M: I had more time but after the first rush the numbers don't change drastically) 1.719 sold tickets for Thursday.
Dune (5.1/12.4M/41M) had after 1 day 1.038 sold tickets also for Thursday.
JW: D (18/41.55M/145.1M) had 3.214 on Monday of the release week = already 53.5% = very theoretically 77.6M with 26 days left. JW: D was counted for Friday (I don't have a Thursday number) but normally the presales aren't that different.
GotG3 (17.5M/30.7M/118.4M) had with 10 days left 1.530 sold tickets.
And finally, Indy 5 had with 28 days left 957 sold tickets for Thursday.

My comps are far from perfect but it becomes clear that it looks really good for Oppenheimer in my theaters.

[MrPink]

5 minutes ago, el sid said:

Oppenheimer counted today for Thursday, July 20 - 30 days to go:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 148 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 178 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 7 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (1 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 12 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 388 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 985 (9 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.718.

Comps: Avatar 2 (17M from previews/36.2M true Friday/134.1M OW) had after 1 day (= M: I had more time but after the first rush the numbers don't change drastically) 1.719 sold tickets for Thursday.
Dune (5.1/12.4M/41M) had after 1 day 1.038 sold tickets also for Thursday.
JW: D (18/41.55M/145.1M) had 3.214 on Monday of the release week = already 53.5% = very theoretically 77.6M with 26 days left. JW: D was counted for Friday (I don't have a Thursday number) but normally the presales aren't that different.
GotG3 (17.5M/30.7M/118.4M) had with 10 days left 1.530 sold tickets.
And finally, Indy 5 had with 28 days left 957 sold tickets for Thursday.

My comps are far from perfect but it becomes clear that it looks really good for Oppenheimer in my theaters.

 

Main concern here is that the Metreon and AMC Universal both have it in 70mm IMAX, one of 30 locations in total, so they're way overindexing and having the lion's share of sales from your sample

 

On the flip side, Grand Rapids looks low, but that's also because another theater in Grand Rapids has it in 70mm IMAX

[el sid]

6 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

Main concern here is that the Metreon and AMC Universal both have it in 70mm IMAX, one of 30 locations in total, so they're way overindexing and having the lion's share of sales from your sample

 

On the flip side, Grand Rapids looks low, but that's also because another theater in Grand Rapids has it in 70mm IMAX

Yes, but other movies had that advantage too. At least I think so, e.g. Dune.

Oppenheimer doesn't get many screens so far and some shows with close to 400 seats are already "Almost Full" and that indeed means they are almost full (7 tickets left).

 

[Porthos]

38 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

Main concern here is that the Metreon and AMC Universal both have it in 70mm IMAX, one of 30 locations in total, so they're way overindexing and having the lion's share of sales from your sample

 

On the flip side, Grand Rapids looks low, but that's also because another theater in Grand Rapids has it in 70mm IMAX

 

On 6/16/2023 at 11:13 AM, MrPink said:

 

Take that damn logic outta here and roll with the 50m+ vibes

 

[MrPink]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

 

 

This is how I keep myself sane from disappointment. Like my Astros

[MrPink]

27 minutes ago, el sid said:

Yes, but other movies had that advantage too. At least I think so, e.g. Dune.

Oppenheimer doesn't get many screens so far and some shows with close to 400 seats are already "Almost Full" and that indeed means they are almost full (7 tickets left).

 

 

Don't think Dune had any special IMAX 70mm prints like this one, it just skewed heavily towards IMAX in general. Which granted, Oppenheimer will also skew similarly in a way, but some locations are gonna do extra extra well because of the rare print and it being the recommended way of viewing.

[keysersoze123]

On 6/19/2023 at 10:30 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Indiana Jones MTC1

Previews(T-11) - 36631/517727 685174.59 2531 shows +2867

Friday - 24162/764454 438660.70 3683 shows +2453

 

Pace is still anemic and it does not have any catalyst until final week. Not sure its going to hit the tracking as well. 

Indiana Jones MTC1

Previews(T-10) - 38007/518581 710546.57 +1376

Friday - 25767/764279 468283.35 3678 shows +1605

 

Friday was run just an hour ago and so its more than a day. We have to see how things go today to gauge the pace for this week. I wont be there to track this move to release. So hoping @ZackM would track in its final week. I am thinking around 42-43K by T-7 and 50K by end of this week. For now seeing around ~130k finish at MTC1 and that should be around 7m previews. 

[keysersoze123]

Metreon just has 11PM show for Imax. I expect them to add 7PM as well in the near future and so that should spike the sales dramatically. For some weird reason evening show is missing for all days !!! I expect it to get fixed and more shows added for Oppenheimer. 

 

Plus Barbie seem to only get Standard shows. I expected it to get Dolby. But those screens are not alloted for now. I am sure there is lots of wrangling between chains and WB/Universal. 

[GOGODanca]

  Indiana Jones (D-9):      482 tickets (10 locs) +22 YD

 

           MI7 EA (D-20):      290 tickets (7 locs)  + 22 YD

           MI7 Pr  (D-21):      383 tickets (10 locs) + 7 YD

 

Oppenheimer (D-30):     570 tickets (10 locs) +18 YD

[ThomasNicole]

 

[Porthos]

48 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

 

 

They're also finally starting to show up on Fandango, though it's still haphazard as it doesn't have nearly all of the theaters showing it locally.  Still that they even have an entry for it now will hopefully mean that Fandango will (eventually) have it for tracking purposes sale at all of the theaters that it covers.

[keysersoze123]

On 6/19/2023 at 10:46 AM, keysersoze123 said:

MI7 MTC1

Monday - 14480/52714 313056.14 215 shows

Tuesday - 19960/559541 386807.68 2726 shows

 

its going to be slow going until next catalyst. Hopefully reviews are out soon for this. As things stand its going to rely on exceptional WOM and legs than a huge OW. 

MI7 MTC1

Monday - 15285/53058 329998.59 216 shows +805

Tuesday - 21289/561811 412443.87 2738 shows +1329

 

Not sure if this can be called as "reaction boost". Sales beyond tuesday are anemic as well. 

 

 

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

191

2338

8.17%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

224

1195

18.74%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
861	43	19924	4.32%	13	101

 

0.697	The Flash T-10	6.76M
0.290	Avatar 2 T-10	4.94M

2.031	Ghostbusters T-10	9.14M
1.437	NTTD T-10	8.95M

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

205

2338

8.77%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

236

1195

19.75%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
904	43	19924	4.54%	13	101

 

0.698	The Flash T-9	6.77M
0.292	Avatar 2 T-9	4.96M
0.377	JW Dominion T-9	6.79M
1.936	Ghostbusters T-9	8.71M
1.368	NTTD T-9	8.52M

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alamo Drafthouse

T-10 Thursday

115 Showings

5103

+140

18793

ATP:

15.66

1.940	The Flash T-10	18.82M
1.095	Avatar 2 T-10	18.61M

2.480

Ghostbusters T-10

11.16M

 

T-11 Friday

159 Showings

4554

+166

26614

ATP:

15.45

2.508	The Flash T-11	37.11M
0.769	Avatar 2 T-11	27.84M

2.547

Ghostbusters T-11

30.95M

 

T-12 Saturday

159 Showings

4464

+185

26754

ATP:

14.74

2.717	The Flash T-12	42.66M
0.632	Avatar 2 T-12	28.01M

2.488

Ghostbusters T-12

40.91M

 

T-13 Sunday

139 Showings

2556

+159

23618

ATP:

14.32

3.631	The Flash T-13	56.28M
0.604	Avatar 2 T-13	22.10M

3.102

Ghostbusters T-13

33.87M

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alamo Drafthouse

T-9 Thursday

123 Showings

5237

+134

19601

ATP:

15.65

1.869	The Flash T-9	18.13M
1.055	Avatar 2 T-9	17.94M
1.002	JW Dominion T-9	18.04M
2.373	Ghostbusters T-9	10.68M

 

T-10 Friday

160 Showings

4715

+161

26756

ATP:

15.44

2.437	The Flash T-10	36.06M
0.716	Avatar 2 T-10	25.93M
0.891	JW Dominion T-10	37.04M
2.408	Ghostbusters T-10	29.26M

 

T-11 Saturday

161 Showings

4561

+97

27035

ATP:

14.75

2.618	The Flash T-11	41.11M
0.609	Avatar 2 T-11	26.98M
0.887	JW Dominion T-11	41.58M
2.315	Ghostbusters T-11	38.06M

 

T-12 Sunday

140 Showings

2683

+127

23717

ATP:

14.38

3.516	The Flash T-12	54.50M
0.586	Avatar 2 T-12	21.42M
1.003	JW Dominion T-12	38.73M
2.907	Ghostbusters T-12	31.74M