The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[AdrianL]

Wow, I was really expecting sub-40m for Morbius. If it ends up doing well then good for Sony for making those release dates for this and Venom work. 

[Inceptionzq]

Sonic 2 Previews Denver

Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

28

734

3.81%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

13

486

2.67%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
92	N/A	10924	0.84%	14	62

 

AMCs sold	66
Cinemarks sold	8
Regals sold	11
Harkins sold	7

 

Wednesday: 

Total

84

N/A

2309

Overall:

Grand Total

176

N/A

13233

 

0.638x GB Afterlife Day 2 (2.87M)

2.15x Encanto Day 2 (3.23M)

[Inceptionzq]

Sonic 2 Megaplex

 

Thursday(48 showings): 90/14244 in 14 theaters

 

Friday(81 showings): 59/24734 in 15 theaters

 

Saturday(81 showings): 22/24746 in 15 theaters

 

Sunday(57 showings): 5/15625 in 11 theaters

[XXR & Friends]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Its going to open big for sure. 

Define “big”.

[Inceptionzq]

Sonic 2 Drafthouse

 

Thursday(98 showings): 197/15810

 

Friday(118 showings): 258/19325

 

Saturday(131 showings): 189/21361

 

Sunday(120 showings): 45/19454

[keysersoze123]

23 minutes ago, KnucklesXXR said:

Define “big”.

How about 60m+. That is a great opening for a movie about a minor character. 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, poweranimals said:

I find it interesting that it's tracking above Venom 2. I wonder if it's a good comp.

 

On Day 1?  Not especially due to it being more backloaded than most recent CBMs.   But I think it'll get better as we get closer.  Kinda think current Shang-Chi comp + x-amount of fudge is a better indicator right now.  Or, to be more precise of where my head is currently at something like ([Venom 2 comp - Shang Chi comp] * .333333) + Shang-Chi comp.

 

Thinking in the 7m-8m range for a Day One comp taking Philly/Sacto/Katniss/Denver numbers holistically.  Like if I use that formula:

 

Philly:    7.68m

Sacto:    7.96m

Katniss:  7.81m

Denver:  8.50m

 

That's kinda remarkable agreement, even with Denver sticking out a bit. Adjust downward to around 6m to 7m if you think that fudge is too generous.

 

But it is just one day of sales.  Could fall off a cliff today or tomorrow.

Edited March 15, 2022 by Porthos

[Menor the Destroyer]

Apart from it's final week surge, I recall Venom 2 being unusually strong on days 2-5ish? Something to keep in mind with day 1 comps.

[Joyous Legion]

When I arrived at 8 I think I was using something like geomean(SC T-, V2 T-)*1.3 😂

Edited March 16, 2022 by Villain Legion

[charlie Jatinder]

11 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Morbius(T-17)

MTC2 Previews - 9578/388972 129082.08 2330 shows

 

That is a strong start. @Menor Reborn do you remember comps. 

Indeed strong start. Better than Shang Chi. About 2/3rd of Eternals. 

Though also better than Venom 2 but Venom 2 sales trajectory was weird and it's better to just ignore them. I can see $8M+ previews quite easily given Shang Chi over indexed in Alpha and Canada, but will go $7-8M for now as IDK if non-CBM crowd will be that keen on it ike Venom, it's a new character and not Tom Hardy. 

 

Another win for Sony.

 

Edited March 16, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[filmlover]

Morbius is already selling really well for this far out around here. Unless a disastrous scenario strikes between now and then, I don't see it opening below Uncharted.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Indeed strong start. Better than Shang Chi. About 2/3rd of Eternals. 

Though also better than Venom 2 but Venom 2 sales trajectory was weird and it's better to just ignore them. I can see $8M+ previews quite easily given Shang Chi over indexed in Alpha and Canada, but will go $7-8M for now as IDK if non-CBM crowd will be that keen on it ike Venom, it's a new character and not Tom Hardy. 

 

Another win for Sony.

 

The power of the red rectangle 💪 So strong that it can convince people to go see a fucking Morbius movie of all things. Feige should seriously should be given a Special Thanks credit on these Venom-verse movies because his efforts are indirectly boosting Sony's Marvel stuff too.

[Eric is Quiet]

On 3/14/2022 at 11:31 PM, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

Jujutsu Kaisen 0 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	28	1099	4387	25.05%

 

Comp

0.726x of Mortal Kombat 3 Days Before Release (6.6M)

5.440x of Last Night in Soho T-3 (3.81M)

 

Well these weird anime things keep getting wide releases. Might as well humor them. Didn't track Demon Slayer or My Hero, so I'm going into this sucker blind!

Jujutsu Kaisen 0 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	1236	5529	22.35%

 

Comp

0.672x of Mortal Kombat 2 Days Before Release (6.11M)

5.045x of Last Night in Soho T-2 (3.53M)

[Eric is Quiet]

On 3/14/2022 at 11:38 PM, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	14	74	1981	0.35%

 

Comp

2.643x of The Night House T-3 (687K)

1.298x of Antlers T-3 (480K)

0.366x of Last Night in Soho T-3 (179K)

 

Soho got a bump from early Dolby shows/Wright fans, so I say this isn't all that bad for a niche film like this. Good on them.

X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	17	93	2341	3.97%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 19

 

Comp

2.325x of the Night House T-2 (604K)

1.310x of Antlers T-2 (485K)

0.380x of Last Night in Soho T-2 (266K)

[Eric is Quiet]

On 3/14/2022 at 11:49 PM, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

The Lost City Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	163	12340	1.32%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 17

 

Comp

2.763x of Jungle Cruise T-10 (7.46M)

0.430x of Scream T-10 (1.5M)

0.541x of Uncharted T-10 (2M)

The Lost City Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	180	12340	1.46%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 17

 

Comp

2.647x of Jungle Cruise T-9 (7.15M)

2.903x of Free Guy T-9 (6.39M)

0.413x of Scream T-9 (1.44M)

0.579x of Uncharted (2.14M)

 

Probably gonna drop the Scream comp after this. It was something I added in when I had nothing to work with, and it's clearly not panning out compared to everything else.

[Eric is Quiet]

On 3/15/2022 at 12:00 AM, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

Morbius Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	69	378	14751	2.56%

 

Comp

0.741x of Shang-Chi T-17 (6.52M)

0.861x of Venom 2 T-17 (9.99M)

0.298x of Eternals T-17 (2.83M)

 

I guess Canada just doesn't care about Jared Leto? Valid response of course.

 

Anyways, while nothing crazy, I'm still more than confident in my "Marvel = Robots" theory.

Morbius Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	69	487	14751	3.30%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 109

 

Comp

0.690x of Shang-Chi T-16 (6.07M)

1.000x of Venom 2 T-16 (11.6M)

0.358x of Eternals T-16 (3.4M)

[Eric is Quiet]

On 3/15/2022 at 12:09 AM, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-24 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	174	9289	1.87%

 

Comp

0.120x of Sing 2 w/ Early Access (1.17M)

4.833x of Sing 2 WITHOUT Early Access (39.32M)

 

Adjusted Comp

4.928x of Sonic the Hedgehog's First Day of Sales (14.79M)

 

Okay so like yeah, obviously these comps are gonna crash to reality. I also don't really have any really good comps to use at this point in time. But all the talk about the film being a potential dud and drop like a rock from the last movie seems suuuuuuuper premature if you ask me.

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-23 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	56	244	10201	2.39%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 70

 

Comp

0.733x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife's First Two Days of Sales (3.3M)

0.167x of Sing 2 w/ Early Access T-23 (1.63M)

4.692x of Sing 2 WITHOUT Early Access T-23 (38.17M)

 

Adjusted Comp

4.872x of Sonic the Hedgehog's First Two Days of Sales (14.61M)

[keysersoze123]

Sonic 2(T-23)

MTC2 prev - 4579/243591 58246.99 1504 shows. 

 

I doubt we would see anything major until close to release but this definitely has potential to break out. 

[Porthos]

On 3/14/2022 at 11:01 PM, Porthos said:

Morbius Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	124	17244	17611	367	2.08%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

367

 

Day One Comps 

	%		Sold  Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	66.25		554	554		0/92	15096/15650	3.54%		5847	6.28%		5.82m
LTBC	105.46		348	348		0/127	21962/22310	1.56%		7712	4.76%		12.23m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Morbius' current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       74/4509  [1.64% sold]

Matinee:   23/1529  [1.50% | 6.27% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Yeah yeah, enjoy the Let There Be Carnage comp while you can as it's gonna come down in a hurry, especially when I shift to T-x comps in about three or so days (LTBC has five more days of pre-sales and at this level of sales, that matters a great deal).  For those who care, the T-17 comp for LTBC is 6.31m, which is a hell of a lot more reasonable than 12m+, so even when I shift over on Thursday, it's not going to go under the current comp of Shang-Chi.

 

Speaking of which, decided that out all of the other Marvel films, Shang-Chi was a reasonable contra-example, mostly due to being the exact same length of pre-sales.  Can't think of much else which would be better, so for now that's where we stand.

 

Morbius Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	127	18290	18775	485	2.58%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	1164
Total Seats Sold Today	118

 

Day Two Comps 

	%		Sold  Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	66.80		172	726		0/99	15764/16490	4.40%		5847	8.29%		5.88m
LTBC	116.31		69	417		0/146	23960/24377	1.71%		7712	6.29%		13.49m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Morbius' current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       90/4509  [1.64% sold] [+16 tickets]

Matinee:   29/1529  [1.90% | 5.98% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

More or less matched the pace of Shang-Chi; outpaced the comp against Let There Be Carnage.  Don't expect to see that tomorrow though as LTBC had a very strong Day 3 before settling back down to a more normal pattern. 

 

Edited March 18, 2022 by Porthos

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-16	Morbius	Jacksonville	6	68	11,325	133	133	1.17%
		Phoenix	6	48	8,992	101	101	1.12%
		Raleigh	6	28	3,776	118	118	3.13%
	Morbius Total		18	144	24,093	352	352	1.46%
T-2	Jujutsu Kaisen: 0	Jacksonville	6	19	2,236	446	57	19.95%
		Phoenix	6	14	1,765	536	49	30.37%
		Raleigh	8	13	1,299	370	38	28.48%
	Jujutsu Kaisen: 0 Total		20	46	5,300	1,352	144	25.51%
T-2	X	Jacksonville	7	11	1,406	27	5	1.92%
		Phoenix	6	8	754	40	8	5.31%
		Raleigh	8	10	774	22	12	2.84%
	X Total		21	29	2,934	89	25	3.03%
T-22	Sonic (EA)	Jacksonville	5	6	942	20	20	2.12%
		Phoenix	1	1	208	25	25	12.02%
		Raleigh	1	1	261	13	13	4.98%
	Sonic (EA) Total		7	8	1,411	58	58	4.11%
T-23	Sonic	Jacksonville	6	36	5,221	42	42	0.80%
		Phoenix	6	17	3,093	48	48	1.55%
		Raleigh	6	19	2,654	38	38	1.43%
	Sonic Total		18	72	10,968	128	128	1.17%
T-9	Lost City	Jacksonville	6	21	3,284	59	7	1.80%
		Phoenix	6	16	2,798	62	6	2.22%
		Raleigh	8	19	2,401	56	4	2.33%
	Lost City Total		20	56	8,483	177	17	2.09%

 

Jujustu T-2 comp

 - MHA (OD) - 1.16x (3.34m)

 

X T-2 comps

 - Res Evil - .64x (599k)

 - Candyman - .437x (829k)

 

Lost City T-9 comps (Thu sales only)

 - Jungle Cruise - 1.45x (3.92m)

 - Uncharted - 0.44x (1.63m)

 - Free Guy - 1.79x (3.93m)

 

Morbius day 1 comps

 - Eternals - .46x (4.38m) (T-23)

 - SC - .67x (5.93m) (T-16 Raleigh only)

 - Venom 2 - .998x (11.57m) (T-17)

 - Suicide Squad - 2.51x (10.31m) (T-21)

 

Didn't track any other kids movies nearly this far out so no comps yet for Sonic.

 

Other Tracking

The Outfit - 22

  - Blacklight - 23

  - Night House - 24

Umma - 11

  - Night House - 24

Lost City (3/19 EA) - 14

Lost City (3/22 EA) - 6

Lost City (3/23 EA) - 6

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-1	Jujutsu Kaisen: 0	Jacksonville	6	23	2,598	501	55	19.28%
		Phoenix	7	15	1,828	582	46	31.84%
		Raleigh	8	13	1,299	418	48	32.18%
	Jujutsu Kaisen: 0 Total		21	51	5,725	1,501	149	26.22%
T-1	X	Jacksonville	7	12	1,469	36	9	2.45%
		Phoenix	7	12	1,009	70	30	6.94%
		Raleigh	8	10	774	30	8	3.88%
	X Total		22	34	3,252	136	47	4.18%
T-15	Morbius	Jacksonville	6	68	11,325	138	5	1.22%
		Phoenix	6	48	8,992	128	27	1.42%
		Raleigh	7	29	3,855	142	24	3.68%
	Morbius Total		19	145	24,172	408	56	1.69%
T-21	Sonic (EA)	Jacksonville	5	6	942	20	0	2.12%
		Phoenix	1	1	208	37	12	17.79%
		Raleigh	1	1	261	13	0	4.98%
	Sonic (EA) Total		7	8	1,411	70	12	4.96%
T-22	Sonic	Jacksonville	6	36	5,221	45	3	0.86%
		Phoenix	6	17	3,093	59	11	1.91%
		Raleigh	6	19	2,654	53	15	2.00%
	Sonic Total		18	72	10,968	157	29	1.43%
T-8	Lost City	Jacksonville	6	21	3,284	53	-6	1.61%
		Phoenix	6	18	2,970	60	-2	2.02%
		Raleigh	8	19	2,401	55	-1	2.29%
	Lost City Total		20	58	8,655	168	-9	1.94%

 

*Note: one theater isn't working this morning - I carried those numbers over from yesterday so numbers may be a touch lighter than actual today.   I also found one screen with three unmarked unavailable seats in Jacksonville - that caused a few lost seats as well.*

 

Jujustu T-1 comp

 - MHA (OD) - 1.12x (3.24m)

 

X T-1 comps

 - Res Evil - .74x (691k)

 - Candyman - .463x (879k)

 

Lost City T-8 comps (Thu sales only)

 - Jungle Cruise - 1.27x (3.44m)

 - Uncharted - 0.38x (1.42m)

 - Free Guy - 1.34x (2.96m)

 

Morbius day 2 comps

 - Eternals - .46x (4.37m) (T-22)

 - SC - .7x (6.19m) (T-15)

 - Venom 2 - 1.07x (12.42m) (T-16)

 - Suicide Squad - 2.47x (10.14m) (T-20)

 

Didn't track any other kids movies nearly this far out so no comps yet for Sonic.

 

Other Tracking

The Outfit - 26

  - Blacklight - 35

  - Night House - 28

Umma - 17

  - Night House - 28

Lost City (3/19 EA) - 25

Lost City (3/22 EA) - 8

Lost City (3/23 EA) - 6