The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

@Shawn

 

Rioting it will be.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Perfectly reasonable prediction imo. Im a bit more optimistic for it, but that range is very realistic.

 

Pinpoint at 183/520 for now. *Might* start including a couple of these each week again, but we shall see. Wish there were better comps for JWD on both the pre-sales and social side this far out.

[Tinalera]

2 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

I suspect Canada will be the region where TG2 underperform in relative to other region in America since the patriotism undertone may not relate well with the crowd here. 

To be fair the first one did pretty decent up here but  it was more about the cool jets, the soundtrack, Tom Cruise doing no wrong box office wise. However the world and events were in a different place and Social Media as we know it wasn't even a twinkle in an eye yet. Im going to be interested to see at the end of it what and how much disparity there might be between CDN and US markets. 

[XXR & Friends]

20 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Pinpoint at 183/520 for now. *Might* start including a couple of these each week again, but we shall see. Wish there were better comps for JWD on both the pre-sales and social side this far out.

@Brainbug the Dinosaur Can’t even top MoM’s OW. Sad. They’re gonna chop off Laura Dern’s right pinky toe for this.

[Brainbug]

10 minutes ago, MessiahXXR said:

@Brainbug the Dinosaur Can’t even top MoM’s OW. Sad. They’re gonna chop off Laura Dern’s right pinky toe for this.

 

Jurassic World: Flopinion?

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 5/12/2022 at 11:50 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Family Camp	Standard	24	5	51	2,504	2.04%	$11.45	$583.99
T-0	Firestarter	Standard	30	15	27	2,704	1.00%	$12.38	$334.21
T-12	Top Gun 2 (EA)	Standard	5	32	804	1,373	58.56%	$21.65	$17,406.60
T-14	Top Gun 2	PLF	35	49	865	8,485	10.19%	$16.73	$14,473.58
		Standard	63	27	429	8,236	5.21%	$13.20	$5,661.53
	Top Gun 2 Total		98	76	1,294	16,721	7.74%	$15.56	$20,135.11
T-6	Downton (EA)	Standard	5	5	42	569	7.38%	$12.94	$543.42
T-7	Downton	Standard	21	7	114	2,488	4.58%	$12.56	$1,431.88

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Family Camp	N	12	2	35	1,252	2.80%	$12.31	$430.85
		Y	12	3	16	1,252	1.28%	$9.57	$153.14
	Family Camp Total		24	5	51	2,504	2.04%	$11.45	$583.99
T-14	Top Gun 2	N	72	67	1,187	11,961	9.92%	$15.92	$18,900.75
		Y	26	9	107	4,760	2.25%	$11.54	$1,234.36
	Top Gun 2 Total		98	76	1,294	16,721	7.74%	$15.56	$20,135.11

 

Skipped JW3 here as well.

 

Family Camp T-0 comp

 - The Bad Guys - .34x (388k)

 

Firestarter T-0 comps

 - Ambulance - .75x (525k)

 - Northman - .117x (158k)

 - Massive Talent - .325x (272k)

 

Downton T-7 comp

 - FB3 - .172x (1.03m)

 

Top Gun T-13 comp

 - No Way Home - .093x (4.65m)

 - Doctor Strange 2 - .136x (4.89m)

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-11	Top Gun 2 (EA)	Standard	6	23	827	1,599	51.72%	$21.65	$17,904.55
T-13	Top Gun 2	PLF	35	99	964	8,485	11.36%	$16.67	$16,067.41
		Standard	63	50	479	8,236	5.82%	$13.17	$6,309.04
	Top Gun 2 Total		98	149	1,443	16,721	8.63%	$15.51	$22,376.45
T-27	JW3*	PLF	30	61	1,088	6,386	17.04%	$16.83	$18,313.83
		Standard	75	43	535	10,359	5.16%	$12.10	$6,472.34
	JW3 Total		105	104	1,623	16,745	9.69%	$15.27	$24,786.17
T-5	Downton (EA)	Standard	5	9	51	569	8.96%	$12.89	$657.35
T-6	Downton	Standard	21	9	123	2,492	4.94%	$12.49	$1,535.79

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-13	Top Gun 2	N	72	119	1,306	11,961	10.92%	$15.92	$20,790.08
		Y	26	30	137	4,760	2.88%	$11.58	$1,586.37
	Top Gun 2 Total		98	149	1,443	16,721	8.63%	$15.51	$22,376.45
T-27	JW3*	N	84	82	1,409	13,676	10.30%	$15.88	$22,381.71
		Y	21	22	214	3,069	6.97%	$11.24	$2,404.46
	JW3 Total		105	104	1,623	16,745	9.69%	$15.27	$24,786.17

 

*JW3 new sales since Wednesday

 

Downton T-6 comp

 - FB3 - .153x (920k)

 

Top Gun T-13 comp

 - No Way Home - .102x (5.08m)

 - Doctor Strange 2 - .151x (5.45m)

 

JW3 final sales (preview morning) comps

 - Batman + EA - .205x (4.42m)

 - Spider-Man - .082x (4.085m)

 - DS 2 - .102x (3.68m)

 - Morbius - .824x (4.7m)

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/12/2022 at 3:27 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

277

2320

11.94%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

318

3250

9.78%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1289	37	24118	5.34%	15	147

 

AMCs sold	983
Cinemarks sold	120
Regals sold	89
Harkins sold	97

Jurassic World Dominion Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

290

2320

12.50%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

321

3250

9.88%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1328	39	24118	5.51%	15	147

 

AMCs sold	1007
Cinemarks sold	125
Regals sold	99
Harkins sold	97

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/12/2022 at 3:28 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Megaplex

 

T-28 Thursday(91 showings): 909(+53)/26260

 

T-29 Friday(150 showings): 746(+64)/43519

 

T-30 Saturday(158 showings): 553(+65)/45546

 

T-31 Sunday(144 showings): 91(+4)/41066

Jurassic World Dominion Megaplex

 

T-27 Thursday(91 showings): 927(+18)/26260

 

T-28 Friday(150 showings): 785(+39)/43519

 

T-29 Saturday(158 showings): 573(+20)/45546

 

T-30 Sunday(144 showings): 102(+11)/41066

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/12/2022 at 3:29 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-28 Thursday(114 showings): 3083(+132)/17772 ATP: $14.33

 

T-29 Friday(172 showings): 2274(+130)/27860 ATP: $14.63

 

T-30 Saturday(180 showings): 2457(+162)/29291 ATP: $13.58

 

T-31 Sunday(145 showings): 897(+57)/23794 ATP: $13.06

Jurassic World Dominion Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-27 Thursday(114 showings): 3151(+68)/17772 ATP: $14.31

 

T-28 Friday(172 showings): 2375(+101)/27860 ATP: $14.63

 

T-29 Saturday(180 showings): 2537(+80)/29291 ATP: $13.58

 

T-30 Sunday(148 showings): 937(+40)/24294 ATP: $13.13

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/12/2022 at 4:08 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Top Gun Maverick Denver Preview Showings

Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

346

2574

13.44%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

562

2612

21.52%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1772	167	27220	6.51%	15	153

 

AMCs sold	1373
Cinemarks sold	127
Regals sold	243
Harkins sold	29

 

Tuesday

Total

856

142

2831

Wednesday

Total

205

4

276

Overall

Grand Total

2833

313

30327

 

0.389x Doctor Strange 2 T-14 (14.00M)

0.243x NWH T-14 (12.13M)

3.69x Dune T-14 (18.81M)

 

Added No Way Home as a comp because why not. It at least has the nostalgia factor that is missing from other comps...

Top Gun Maverick Denver Preview Showings

Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

367

2574

14.26%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

591

2612

22.63%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1931	159	27220	7.09%	15	153

 

AMCs sold	1480
Cinemarks sold	129
Regals sold	276
Harkins sold	46

 

Tuesday

Total

935

79

2831

Wednesday

Total

206

1

276

Overall

Grand Total

3072

239

30327

 

0.251x NWH T-13 (12.55M)

3.53x Dune T-13 (17.99M)

Edited May 13, 2022 by Inceptionzq

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/12/2022 at 4:14 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Top Gun Maverick Megaplex

 

T-12 Tuesday(5 showings): 1017(+113)/2742

T-14 Thursday(125 showings): 2166(+300)/33207

 

Total Previews: 3183(+413)/34239

0.399x Doctor Strange 2 T-14 (14.35M)

0.197x NWH T-14 (9.84M)

2.56x Dune T-14 (13.05M)

 

T-15 Friday(199 showings): 3012(+383)/53043

0.700x Doctor Strange 2 T-15 (38.30M)

0.263x NWH T-15 (18.89M)

2.49x Dune T-15 (30.88M)

 

T-16 Saturday(204 showings): 1907(+231)/55104

0.781x Doctor Strange 2 T-16 (45.13M)

0.349x NWH T-16 (25.79M)

3.47x Dune T-16 (47.61M)

 

T-17 Sunday(193 showings): 442(+73)/52781

0.754x Doctor Strange 2 T-17 (29.33M)

0.409x NWH T-17 (26.24M)

2.46x Dune T-17 (24.02M)

Top Gun Maverick Megaplex

 

T-11 Tuesday(5 showings): 1144(+127)/2742

T-13 Thursday(125 showings): 2357(+191)/33207

 

Total Previews: 3501(+318)/34239

0.204x NWH T-13 (10.22M)

2.59x Dune T-13 (13.21M)

 

T-14 Friday(199 showings): 3325(+313)/53043

0.274x NWH T-14 (19.68M)

2.44x Dune T-14 (30.27M)

 

T-15 Saturday(204 showings): 2146(+239)/55104

0.359x NWH T-15 (26.52M)

3.30x Dune T-15 (45.30M)

 

T-16 Sunday(193 showings): 505(+63)/52781

0.418x NWH T-16 (26.83M)

2.37x Dune T-16 (23.19M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/12/2022 at 4:17 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Top Gun Maverick Drafthouse

 

T-14 Thursday(117 showings): 3116(+379)/19788 ATP: $14.72

0.133x NWH T-14 (6.64M)

 

T-15 Friday(145 showings): 3567(+479)/24419 ATP: $14.75

0.185x NWH T-15 (13.27M)

 

T-16 Saturday(158 showings): 2959(+328)/26389 ATP: $13.90

0.170x NWH T-16 (12.59M)

 

T-17 Sunday(143 showings): 1402(+233)/23991 ATP: $13.47

0.176x NWH T-17 (11.27M)

Top Gun Maverick Drafthouse

 

T-13 Thursday(117 showings): 3395(+279)/19788 ATP: $14.75

0.141x NWH T-13 (7.07M)

 

T-14 Friday(145 showings): 3883(+316)/24419 ATP: $14.73

0.195x NWH T-14 (13.99M)

 

T-15 Saturday(158 showings): 3313(+354)/26389 ATP: $13.82

0.180x NWH T-15 (13.34M)

 

T-16 Sunday(143 showings): 1576(+174)/23991 ATP: $13.42

0.182x NWH T-16 (11.71M)

[DAJK]

For those who were thinking Top Gun would underperform in Canada, it’s presales are double Dominion’s as of now, which makes sense since it is closer to release.

 

What surprises me more is the backloaded-ness of Top Gun’s sales. Don’t get me wrong, Thursday is still strong, but it’s Friday and Saturday in particular are much much stronger. Whatever this does in previews, expect the weekend to be backloaded.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Top Gun gonna do good with group sales from retirement homes, the same way BP got boosted from church groups

[Eric the Minion]

On 5/12/2022 at 11:19 PM, Eric Strange said:

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	148	1328	30872	4.30%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 90

 

Comp

2.350x of No Time to Die T-14 (14.81M)

2.081x of Dune T-14 (10.62M)

3.162x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-14 (14.23M)

3.018x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-14 (18.11M)

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	148	1441	30872	4.67%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 113

 

Comp

1.836x of F9 T-13 (13.03M)

2.463x of No Time to Die T-13 (15.52M)

2.138x of Dune T-13 (10.91M)

3.126x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-13 (14.07M)

2.911x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-13 (17.47M)

[El Squibbonator]

Bob's Burgers: The Movie apparently cost $60 million, and the long-range forecast currently has it earning $12 million in its domestic premier. That seems awfully low to me, especially considering a) how much the movie is being promoted right now, and b) how high the ratings for the show still are. But if it does open that low, it's going to need spectacular legs in order to earn its budget back. 

 

 

Edited May 14, 2022 by El Squibbonator

[Eric the Minion]

On 5/12/2022 at 11:25 PM, Eric Strange said:

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-28 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	130	1202	23332	5.15%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 26

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-27 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	130	1227	23332	5.26%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 25

 

Comp

1.505x of Black Widow T-26 (19.87M)

 

I'm probably going to have Black Widow as a comp in the short-term and not track it that long. I feel like for superhero movies, they're in their own realm/world when it comes to presales and the way they operate, and I generally don't like using CBMs as comparisons to non-CBMs, outside of Venom 2 of course. If anybody has ideas on what comps I should use for Dominion (F9 and Venom 2 are definites no matter what), I'm all ears, because I'm a tad stumped at the moment.

[Eric the Minion]

8 minutes ago, El Squibbonator said:

Bob's Burgers: The Movie apparently cost $60 million, and the long-range forecast currently has it earning $12 million in its domestic premier. That seems awfully low to me, especially considering a) how much the movie is being promoted right now, and b) how high the ratings for the show still are. But if it does open that low, it's going to need spectacular legs in order to earn its budget back. 

I mean...that sounds about right? I like the show and I'm having a fun time binging it on Hulu in preparation for the movie, but Bob's Burgers has never caught on in the zeitgeist and became a household name in the same way Family Guy or Simpsons has.

[El Squibbonator]

Still. . . I don't envy Fox in this situation. Not one bit. If the movie did cost $60 million, it's going to have to do a lot better than we anticipated just to break even.  I can tell they were hoping to have another Simpsons Movie on their hands, but I just can't see that happening with Bob's Burgers. 

 

On that note, I wonder if the almost inevitable underperformance of this movie might discourage Fox from producing the long-rumored second Simpsons movie. 

Edited May 14, 2022 by El Squibbonator

[keysersoze123]

37 minutes ago, Eric Strange said:

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-27 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	130	1227	23332	5.26%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 25

 

Comp

1.505x of Black Widow T-26 (19.87M)

 

I'm probably going to have Black Widow as a comp in the short-term and not track it that long. I feel like for superhero movies, they're in their own realm/world when it comes to presales and the way they operate, and I generally don't like using CBMs as comparisons to non-CBMs, outside of Venom 2 of course. If anybody has ideas on what comps I should use for Dominion (F9 and Venom 2 are definites no matter what), I'm all ears, because I'm a tad stumped at the moment.

Ultimately if this is going for close to 20m previews you need to compare to mega block busters. So start comping with NWH, Bats and Dr Strange 2. 

[Pinacolada]

$60m budget for Bob's Burgers sounds ABSURD to me