The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric the Minion]

21 hours ago, Eric Crawley said:

Downton Abbey: A New Era Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	41	575	5180	11.10%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 112

 

Comp

2.738x of Dear Evan Hansen T-1 (2.19M)

1.571x of House of Gucci T-1 (2.04M)

2.178x of West Side Story T-1 (1.74M)

2.195x of Death on the Nile T-1 (2.41M)

5.476x of Marry Me T-1 (2.87M)

0.743x of The Lost City T-1 (2.41M)

Downton Abbey: A New Era Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	41	672	5180	12.97%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 97

 

Comp

2.147x of Dear Evan Hansen (1.72M)

1.118x of House of Gucci (1.45M)

1.741x of West Side Story (1.39M)

1.755x of Death on the Nile (1.93M)

4.421x of Marry Me (2.32M)

0.657x of The Lost City (2.14M)

 

Jeez Louise, this really was frontloaded. 😬

[Eric the Minion]

21 hours ago, Eric Crawley said:

Men Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	24	137	3378	4.06%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 38

 

Comp

0.521x of Old T-1 (781K)

2.076x of The Night House T-1 (540K)

1.593x of Antlers T-1 (589K)

0.443x of Last Night in Soho T-1 (310K)

1.132x of X T-1 (498K)

1.827x of Firestarter T-1 (685K)

Men Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	24	247	3378	4.06%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 110

 

Comp

0.289x of Old (434K)

2.186x of The Night House (568K)

1.703x of Antlers (630K)

0.638x of Last Night in Soho (447K)

1.033x of X (455K)

1.915x of Firestarter (718K)

[Alex SciChannel]

4 minutes ago, Eric Crawley said:

Men Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	24	247	3378	4.06%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 110

 

Comp

0.289x of Old (434K)

2.186x of The Night House (568K)

1.703x of Antlers (630K)

0.638x of Last Night in Soho (447K)

1.033x of X (455K)

1.915x of Firestarter (718K)

I need this to make 500K+ in previews because I bet on a 5M+ opening. 🤞

[XXR & Friends]

4 hours ago, motionpic05 said:

So what is Jurassic World Dominion looking at for OW Now?

 

Still too early to tell but my gut says $170-190M.  

[DAJK]

@Eric Crawley I'm seeing the same thing for Downton; extremely frontloaded, walk-ups were TERRIBLE, which is funny because the last Downton movie played like a mega blockbuster here and pre-sales AND walk-ups were great.

 

Going in to today I thought 20M was possible. Put me down for sub-15 now. Awful awful day for it.

 

In good (better) news, Men out-sold X in pretty much every market I looked at (still have COVID, so I only have data today from theatres I'm tracking individually). Would say 5M can still happen unless it turns out to be very frontloaded itself.

[Ronin46]

The 2 prediction sites have Downton Abbey at 18 and 20. I think it wont get to that from how the tracking is dropping off.

 

I think 14 to 16.

[Grebacio]

3 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I don't think so, it is the exact same gross their "model" is kicking out for Thor and Black Panther.  

 

Their model is dogshit.  

Avatar numbers ARE only for 2022, it's stated between parenthesis.

[Alex SciChannel]

15 minutes ago, DAJK said:

@Eric Crawley I'm seeing the same thing for Downton; extremely frontloaded, walk-ups were TERRIBLE, which is funny because the last Downton movie played like a mega blockbuster here and pre-sales AND walk-ups were great.

 

Going in to today I thought 20M was possible. Put me down for sub-15 now. Awful awful day for it.

 

In good (better) news, Men out-sold X in pretty much every market I looked at (still have COVID, so I only have data today from theatres I'm tracking individually). Would say 5M can still happen unless it turns out to be very frontloaded itself.

Is it possible that the frontloadedness is due to the previews only being one showing at 7pm being too late for the Olds? Weekend walkups still possible?

[Borobudur]

29 minutes ago, DAJK said:

@Eric Crawley I'm seeing the same thing for Downton; extremely frontloaded, walk-ups were TERRIBLE, which is funny because the last Downton movie played like a mega blockbuster here and pre-sales AND walk-ups were great.

 

Going in to today I thought 20M was possible. Put me down for sub-15 now. Awful awful day for it.

 

In good (better) news, Men out-sold X in pretty much every market I looked at (still have COVID, so I only have data today from theatres I'm tracking individually). Would say 5M can still happen unless it turns out to be very frontloaded itself.

If this mean the thing doesn't bode well for TG2? This mean a non-fan driven sequel aiming at older crowd can also be frontloaded. 

[EmpireCity]

20 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Avatar numbers ARE only for 2022, it's stated between parenthesis.

 

But, they really aren't though.  His model gave the exact same opening and total to Thor, Black Panther and Avatar.  $110m opening and $300m gross.  This guy is a complete fucking moron.  

[EmpireCity]

6 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

If this mean the thing doesn't bode well for TG2? This mean a non-fan driven sequel aiming at older crowd can also be frontloaded. 

 

Lol.  No.  

[filmlover]

The first Downton Abbey movie was always going to be something of a novelty that was going to appeal to fans of the show first and foremost, and it's unlikely the audience grew from it. Is there anyone on the fence about whether they want to see this or not? It just seems like such a "for fans of the show only, everyone else need not apply" sort of affair.

[motionpic05]

34 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

The 2 prediction sites have Downton Abbey at 18 and 20. I think it wont get to that from how the tracking is dropping off.

 

I think 14 to 16.

Which wouldn't be horrible, but a big step down from the first one.

[charlie Jatinder]

What exactly is the model though?

[motionpic05]

I'm going to guess about $17-19 million for OW. 

[Joyous Legion]

13 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

But, they really aren't though.  His model gave the exact same opening and total to Thor, Black Panther and Avatar.  $110m opening and $300m gross.  This guy is a complete fucking moron.  

But they really are though. The model is complete nonsense but it's complete nonsense that predicts 110 opening and 300M 2022 gross for avatar, not a 300M finish.

[motionpic05]

I'm thinking $4-6 million for Men

 

It flopped tonight in my area (Ontario, Canada) though

 

One theatre had 2 seats sold for the 7:05 showing and the other had about 6 for the 7:10 show

 

Edited May 20, 2022 by motionpic05

[ZackM]

 

Top Gun: Maverick Alpha Chain Early Access Event Seat Report: T-5 days
5/19/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	229	260	33,201	61,829	53.70%
ATP
$23.74

 

 

Top Gun: Maverick Alpha Chain Investor Connect Screening Seat Report: T-6 days
5/19/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	195	196	9,507	41,245	23.05%
ATP
$13.65

 

 

Top Gun: Maverick Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	Previous 2 Days
Showings Added	28	24	175	95
Seats Added	4,787	3,224	20,781	8,273
Seats Sold	4,906	3,319	3,594	4,911
5/19/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	429	3,890	72,326	733,370	9.86%
ATP
$17.37

 

 

Top Gun: Maverick Comps
	Dr. Strange MoM		The Batman		Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0	-	-	-	-	-
T-0	-	-	-	-	-
T-1	-	-	-	-	-
T-2	-	-	-	-	-
T-3	-	-	-	-	-
T-4	-	-	-	-	-
T-5	-	-	-	-	-
T-6	-	-	-	-	-
T-7	$11.7	$13.4	$11.7	$11.8	$12.6
T-8	$11.4	$13.0	$11.3	$11.4	$12.2
T-9	$11.3	$12.8	$11.0	$11.1	$12.1
T-10	$11.0	$12.6	$10.8	$10.9	$11.9
T-11	$10.8	$12.3	$10.6	$10.6	$11.6
T-12	$10.5	$12.0	$10.3	$10.4	$11.3
T-13	$10.3	$11.7	$10.1	$10.2	$11.1

[ZackM]

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days
	Last Day
Showings Added	4,249
Seats Added	755,974
Seats Sold	51,054
5/19/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	427	4,249	51,054	755,974	6.75%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	1	4	23	43
ATP
$18.14

[EmpireCity]

14 minutes ago, DS2HaterLegion Confirmed said:

But they really are though. The model is complete nonsense but it's complete nonsense that predicts 110 opening and 300M 2022 gross for avatar, not a 300M finish.

 

There is no chance that the model magically predicted the EXACT same $110m opening and $300m finish for Thor and Black Panther and somehow the EXACT same $110m opening for Avatar 2 along with the same $300m but suddenly that is only for 2022.  The mathematical chances of this are as close to zero as you can get.  

 

No, his model is just garbage that kicks out numbers according to some idiotic formula he came up with and he didn't account for anything realistic.  

Edited May 20, 2022 by EmpireCity