The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Batman also had higher tix. JWD will have cheaper tix due to kids. I think Alpha (overall, not just tracked) will come around 28%. $20M will need $5.5M ish. In before times TLK did $6.1M for $23M.

$5.5M overall will probably need 330K IMO.

Yeah thought it was more likely from Sat but that range is tough with Sun being just 8.8k. Tomorrow will be key for it to get on track otherwise probably 17m range. 

[keysersoze123]

10 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	6	0	16	34
Seats Added	0	508	0	1,137	5,781
Seats Sold	8,750	6,658	6,123	4,138	4,359
6/5/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	428	4,363	103,861	768,992	13.51%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	2	15	58	154
ATP
$17.40

 

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Comps
	Top Gun: Maverick		The Batman		Dr. Strange MoM		Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-4	$14.0	$13.1	$9.4	$8.9	$9.4	$10.0	$10.2
T-5	$13.8	$12.9	$9.0	$8.5	$9.1	$9.6	$9.9
T-6	$13.8	$12.9	$8.7	$8.2	$8.7	$9.3	$9.6
T-7	$13.8	$12.9	$8.4	$7.9	$8.4	$8.9	$9.3
T-8	$13.9	$13.0	$8.1	$7.7	$8.3	$8.8	$9.2
T-9	$13.8	$12.9	$7.9	$7.5	$8.1	$8.6	$9.0
T-10	$13.9	$13.0	$7.8	$7.3	$8.0	$8.5	$8.9
T-11	$13.9	$13.1	$7.6	$7.2	$7.8	$8.3	$8.8
T-12	$14.0	$13.2	$7.5	$7.1	$7.7	$8.2	$8.7
T-13	$14.2	$13.4	$7.5	$7.1	$7.6	$8.1	$8.6

 

This definitely is below expectations considering Venom 2 did 7.5K !! That said good news is Friday is already ahead of thursday previews. So may be it can hit 150m with tad over 17m previews unless WOM is toxic. 

 

 

[Alex SciChannel]

19 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

This definitely is below expectations considering Venom 2 did 7.5K !! That said good news is Friday is already ahead of thursday previews. So may be it can hit 150m with tad over 17m previews unless WOM is toxic. 

 

 

If Dominion did 8.8K and Venom 2 did 7.5K on the same T- day I presume it's merely proportional?

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Alex SciChannel said:

If Dominion did 8.8K and Venom 2 did 7.5K on the same T- day I presume it's merely proportional?

It needs a ratio of at least 1.5x. I was thinking at least 10K today and tomorrow it will add bunch of shows and does close to 15K. 

[Yandereprime101189]

My base prediction is 160 million but I feel walkups will make it reach higher than most are predicting - the same way World an Fallen Kingdom surprised.

 

I highly doubt the domestic GA will pay attention to the early reactions of overseas markets.

Edited June 6, 2022 by Yandereprime101189

[Alex SciChannel]

I am still staying somewhat conservative for myself. $16.5M Thursday, $155M weekend

[filmlover]

I don't know why we're expecting reviews/WOM to be the absolute worst? Yeah, the early reviews overseas aren't great, but it's not like they're Morbius-level bad either.

[keysersoze123]

FYI Final 5 days of PS for Venom 2 at alpha. Good news is JWD needs only to be at 125% to hit 300K. But that kind of growth Venom 2 had is crazy. I am not even sure the walkups of Venom 2 can be matched. If 270K is sufficient as Charlie feels for 17m then it has to barely match the pace of Venom 2 to hit it and its well on its pace at least past few days. 

 

Quote

Sat - 44642/585394 743302.62 2898 shows 
Sun - 52224/585811 861517.10 2902 shows (+7582)
Mon - 62869/603195 1060965.85 3057 shows (+10645)
Tue - 79487/684682 1324576.71 3641 shows (+16618)
Wed - 105386/694819 1723845.68 3758 shows (+25899)
Previews Final - 206846/705013 3203659.08 3897 shows (+101460)

 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

11 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I don't know why we're expecting reviews/WOM to be the absolute worst? Yeah, the early reviews overseas aren't great, but it's not like they're Morbius-level bad either.

Because they will be the absolute worst

[Eric is Quiet]

14 hours ago, Eric Mitchell said:

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	134	2500	23705	10.55%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 154

 

Comp

1.932x of F9 T-5 (13.72M)

1.968x of Venom 2 T-5 (22.83M)

2.056x of No Time to Die T-5 (12.95M)

1.005x of Top Gun 2 T-5 (19.35M)

 

Mickey's Law really is a cruel, cruel beast.

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	134	2717	23705	11.46%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 217

 

Comp

1.939x of F9 T-4 (13.77M)

1.904x of Venom 2 T-4 (22.09M)

2.057x of No Time to Die T-4 (12.96M)

0.997x of Top Gun 2 T-4 (19.2M)

[ThomasNicole]

16 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I don't know why we're expecting reviews/WOM to be the absolute worst? Yeah, the early reviews overseas aren't great, but it's not like they're Morbius-level bad either.

I think US tends to be more cynical with bad movies. 

 

I'm not expecting a disaster tho, 40% or so like FK. 

 

The problem is the WOM, seems very average overseas so far, worst than FK (which got an A- on Cinemascore). 

 

If Dominion gets a B+ or B i think it's in trouble.

[ThomasNicole]

I'm expecting 150-160M for Dominion. 

 

Overseas the movie clearly drop in admissions but expensive tickets help to match FK. I don't see much reason to expect something different domestic, even the presales kinda point to that.

 

I'm more curious about the legs.

[Tokugennumataka]

Won't be surprised if TGMs 6th wknd> JWDs 3rd wknd. If not, next week TGM will easily win. 

[THUNDER BIRD]

History Tells Us..... Never Underestimate Dinosaurs.

 

And that's why I'm predicting..... Jurassic World 4 will bring back the lost glory of Jurassic Franchise, and it won't need OG cast or whatever for nostalgia boost.

 

The Box Office will tremble before it and naysayers will get shaken.

 

 

[THUNDER BIRD]

And as for Dominion..... As long as it makes profit which makes studio green lit next parts, I'm fine..... But yeah, 1 Billion would be nice.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	224	23313	27932	4619	16.54%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	175
Total Seats Sold Today	449

 

T-5 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	106.92		250	4320		0/193	22993/27313	15.82%		9196	50.23%		14.78m
SC	215.34		183	2145		0/113	15466/17611	12.18%		5847	79.00%		18.95m
NTTD	298.77		119	1546		0/145	20907/22453	6.89%		3737	123.60%		18.52m
Dune	383.64		63	1204		0/79	11124/12328	9.77%		2915	158.46%		19.57m
TG:M	69.42		312	6654		0/271	30655/37309	17.83%		11474	40.26%		13.37m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-5 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	270.92		113	1606		0/89	11878/13484	11.91%		4407	98.73%		20.14m
JWD (adj)	---		427	4351		0/198	20167/24518	17.75%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  JWD (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: Both the F9 and the BW comp have been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during pre-sale runs of those films (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***

JW3 = 1.6905x JW2 at the same sources of tracking at T-5 [23.28m adj]
JW3 = 3.15993x KotM at the same sources of tracking at T-5 [17.92m adj]
JW3 = 0.90442x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-5 [18.72m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

 

Regal:        777/6145   [12.64% sold]
Matinee:    285/1535  [18.57% | 6.17% of all tickets sold]

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 and counting

 

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	224	22664	27932	5268	18.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

649

 

T-4 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	113.90		305	4625		0/193	22688/27313	16.93%		9196	57.29%		15.74m
SC	218.95		261	2406		0/113	15205/17611	13.66%		5847	90.10%		19.27m
NTTD	309.34		157	1703		0/145	20757/22460	7.58%		3737	140.97%		19.18m
Dune	394.90		130	1334		0/79	10936/12270	10.87%		2915	180.72%		20.14m
TG:M	73.88		476	7130		0/271	30179/37309	19.11%		11474	45.91%		14.23m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-4 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	273.37		200	1806		0/89	11678/13484	13.39%		4407	112.03%		20.32m
JWD (adj)	---		586	4937		0/198	19581/24518	20.14%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  JWD (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: Both the F9 and the BW comp have been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during pre-sale runs of those films (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***

JW3 = 1.74444x JW2 at the same sources of tracking at T-4 [24.02m adj]
JW3 = 3.2856x KotM at the same sources of tracking at T-4 [18.63m adj]
JW3 = 0.93132x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-4 [19.28m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

 

Regal:       908/6145  [14.78% sold]
Matinee:    315/1535  [20.52% | 5.98% of all tickets sold]

[filmlover]

Minions tickets on sale now.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/3/2022 at 1:02 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Phone	T-20	Jax	6	16	1	16	1,959	0.82%
		Phx	5	13	2	11	2,108	0.52%
		Ral	7	17	11	25	1,647	1.52%
	Total		18	46	14	52	5,714	0.91%
Black Phone (EA)	T-12	Jax	2	2	0	0	141	0.00%
		Phx	2	2	0	2	229	0.87%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	91	0.00%
	Total		5	5	0	2	461	0.43%
Elvis	T-20	Jax	6	25	7	38	4,322	0.88%
		Phx	5	14	6	12	2,001	0.60%
		Ral	7	16	12	18	1,679	1.07%
	Total		18	55	25	68	8,002	0.85%
Elvis (EA)	T-18	Jax	2	2	12	54	403	13.40%
	Total		2	2	12	54	403	13.40%
JW3 Dominion	T-6	Jax	7	107	71	1,097	15,994	6.86%
		Phx	6	93	67	1,029	16,293	6.32%
		Ral	8	80	70	1,001	9,318	10.74%
	Total		21	280	208	3,127	41,605	7.52%
JW3+JP	T-6	Jax	5	5	10	181	811	22.32%
		Phx	6	6	6	368	638	57.68%
		Ral	7	7	4	163	688	23.69%
	Total		18	18	20	712	2,137	33.32%

 

JW3 T-6 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.04x (13.68m)

 - Batman (Thu) - missed

 - Eternals - 1.42x (13.45m)

 - F9 - 3x (21.31m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.11x (16.25m)

 

Elvis + EA T-20 comp

 - Downton Abbey 2 + EA - .47x (493k)

 

Fandango giving me all kinds of trouble today. Had to manually count everything on the app.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Phone	T-17	Jax	6	16	3	19	1,959	0.97%
		Phx	5	13	11	22	2,108	1.04%
		Ral	7	18	0	25	1,933	1.29%
	Total		18	47	14	66	6,000	1.10%
Black Phone (EA)	T-9	Jax	2	2	1	1	141	0.71%
		Phx	2	2	1	3	229	1.31%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	91	0.00%
	Total		5	5	2	4	461	0.87%
Elvis	T-17	Jax	6	26	17	55	4,520	1.22%
		Phx	6	16	22	34	2,103	1.62%
		Ral	8	20	16	34	2,074	1.64%
	Total		20	62	55	123	8,697	1.41%
Elvis (EA)	T-15	Jax	2	2	11	65	403	16.13%
	Total		2	2	11	65	403	16.13%
JW3 Dominion	T-3	Jax	7	109	368	1,465	16,155	9.07%
		Phx	6	96	362	1,391	16,515	8.42%
		Ral	8	80	386	1,387	9,318	14.89%
	Total		21	285	1,116	4,243	41,988	10.11%
JW3+JP	T-3	Jax	5	5	9	190	811	23.43%
		Phx	6	6	19	387	638	60.66%
		Ral	7	7	41	204	688	29.65%
	Total		18	18	69	781	2,137	36.55%
Minions 2	T-24	Jax	5	87	0	0	13,662	0.00%
		Phx	1	12	0	0	1,484	0.00%
		Ral	3	25	0	0	3,228	0.00%
	Total		9	124	0	0	18,374	0.00%

 

*All new sales since Friday morning*

 

JW3 T-3 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.185x (15.64m)

 - Batman (Thu) - .796x (14m)

 - Eternals - 1.6x (15.16m)

 - F9 - 2.93x (20.8m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.07x (15.73m)

 

Elvis + EA T-17 comp

 - Downton Abbey 2 + EA - .71x (1.29m)

 

Only included Minions so I could point out the massive amount of showtimes it's starting with.  Only 9 theaters in my regions have listed so far and it's close to 14 shows per theater (a couple are over 20 already).  2pm shows plus IMAX/3D/other PLF are adding up quick.

Edited June 6, 2022 by katnisscinnaplex
Incorrect DA comp #

[Alex SciChannel]

14 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Phone	T-17	Jax	6	16	3	19	1,959	0.97%
		Phx	5	13	11	22	2,108	1.04%
		Ral	7	18	0	25	1,933	1.29%
	Total		18	47	14	66	6,000	1.10%
Black Phone (EA)	T-9	Jax	2	2	1	1	141	0.71%
		Phx	2	2	1	3	229	1.31%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	91	0.00%
	Total		5	5	2	4	461	0.87%
Elvis	T-17	Jax	6	26	17	55	4,520	1.22%
		Phx	6	16	22	34	2,103	1.62%
		Ral	8	20	16	34	2,074	1.64%
	Total		20	62	55	123	8,697	1.41%
Elvis (EA)	T-15	Jax	2	2	11	65	403	16.13%
	Total		2	2	11	65	403	16.13%
JW3 Dominion	T-3	Jax	7	109	368	1,465	16,155	9.07%
		Phx	6	96	362	1,391	16,515	8.42%
		Ral	8	80	386	1,387	9,318	14.89%
	Total		21	285	1,116	4,243	41,988	10.11%
JW3+JP	T-3	Jax	5	5	9	190	811	23.43%
		Phx	6	6	19	387	638	60.66%
		Ral	7	7	41	204	688	29.65%
	Total		18	18	69	781	2,137	36.55%
Minions 2	T-24	Jax	5	87	0	0	13,662	0.00%
		Phx	1	12	0	0	1,484	0.00%
		Ral	3	25	0	0	3,228	0.00%
	Total		9	124	0	0	18,374	0.00%

 

*All new sales since Friday morning*

 

JW3 T-3 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.185x (15.64m)

 - Batman (Thu) - .796x (14m)

 - Eternals - 1.6x (15.16m)

 - F9 - 2.93x (20.8m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.07x (15.73m)

 

Elvis + EA T-17 comp

 - Downton Abbey 2 + EA - .71x (750k)

 

Only included Minions so I could point out the massive amount of showtimes it's starting with.  Only 9 theaters in my regions have listed so far and it's close to 14 shows per theater (a couple are over 20 already).  2pm shows plus IMAX/3D/other PLF are adding up quick.

Is this a good increase for JW Dominion? I am in Raleigh and anecdotally wom is pretty good atm.

[cookie]

Are Lightyear tickets not on the sale in the U.S yet? Can't seem to find any bookable showings on Fandango.

Edited June 6, 2022 by cookie