The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Joyous Legion]

31 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

What are you thinking day wise? 

Maybe 

6.69

20

22

21

 

Edit: LOL, this has revealed that the IM tab on my sheet was using true Th demoninator instead of Th+Wed. Nevermind.

 

Although I won’t be surprised if the Fri comes in closer to 3.5x Wed+Th than 3x I currently have penciled.

Edited June 17, 2022 by Legion and Thunder

[XXR & Friends]

1 hour ago, Shawn said:

Anyway, didn't you tell me you were close to $80M yesterday or am I thinking of someone else? 😛

 

It me 

 

Yesterday I was closer to $80M with something like $7M previews x 11 IM. Previews seem to have panned a bit downward from my expectations and after reviewing other data I felt like 10-10.5x where more likely. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. The last entry in the TS franchise did 10.8x previews in 2019. Preview multipliers across the spectrum have tightened up about 10-15% in the last 3-4 years. While I recognize Lightyear isn't TS4, I have no reason to expect much of an expansion in the IM (especially with earlier previews and the general trend toward earlier ticket buying) even though it's much less of an "event". 

 

After that, I tried to factor in Father's Day and Juneteenth. That's hard to predict. Yes, Father's Day will juice Sunday and Juneteenth will help keep some later shows on Sunday stronger than they would other wise be, but how much of that will be geared towards Lightyear vs JWD/TGM. 

 

There's a lot of variables. At this point, if the weekend came in at $55M or $85M I wouldn't be surprised. 

 

[ZackM]

Lightyear update...I'll have finals in the morning.  As of now, final day sales have nearly matched presales.

 

 

Alpha - Lightyear - Eastern Time Zone			Alpha - Lightyear - Central Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales		Showtimes	Sales
3:00-3:59	8,524		3:00-3:59	5,716
4:00-4:59	3,899		4:00-4:59	2,024
5:00-5:59	2,855		5:00-5:59	2,540
6:00-6:59	6,873		6:00-6:59	4,020
7:00-7:59	5,566		7:00-7:59	3,836
8:00-8:59	3,760		8:00-8:59	2,749
9:00-9:59	2,377		9:00-9:59	1,418
10:00-10:59	814		10:00-10:59	303
11:00-11:59	64		11:00-11:59	0
12:00+	0		12:00+	0
Alpha - Lightyear - Mountain Time Zone			Alpha - Lightyear - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales		Showtimes	Sales
3:00-3:59	1,668		3:00-3:59	6,343
4:00-4:59	689		4:00-4:59	2,904
5:00-5:59	597		5:00-5:59	2,220
6:00-6:59	1,241		6:00-6:59	4,459
7:00-7:59	1,065		7:00-7:59	5,363
8:00-8:59	619		8:00-8:59	2,776
9:00-9:59	341		9:00-9:59	2,170
10:00-10:59	53		10:00-10:59	961
11:00-11:59	0		11:00-11:59	147
12:00+	0		12:00+	0

 

Edited June 17, 2022 by ZackM

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, Gopher said:

Or just, y'know, made an original sci-fi movie that people would've given a shot anyway...

I mean, isn't that what Disney Animation itself is putting out this Thanksgiving anyway? 

 

(hopefully it works out for them since the last time they dabbled in the genre - Atlantis, Treasure Planet - they produced some of the biggest bombs in their entire history)

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

At 5:00 PM PST, 8409 admits for THU. 11-12K looks like will happen. 

Lightyear Harkins Final

 

Day	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Early Access	11	3,448	1,869	54.21%	$29,289	$15.67
Thursday	341	83,181	12,110	14.56%	$136,259	$11.25
Total	352	86,629	13,979	16.14%	$165,548	$11.84

 

Comps

0.405x Jurassic World: Dominion - $7.20M (THU alone $6.25M)

0.849x Eternals - $8.07M (THU alone $7M)

1.525x Sonic 2 (8 locs & THU only) - $7.75M 

 

Did better here than other places. THU only comps ranges from $6.25-7.75M. Adjusted for ATP will probably be 5-10% lower for JWD & Eternals comps. 

 

Based on Harkins data, can estimate rest chains, previews probably around $5.5-5.75M on THU.

Edited June 17, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

23 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Thor: Love and Thunder Harkins T-22 Days

 

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
412	103,322	7,449	7.21%	$100,412	$13.48

 

Good day adding 450 more vs 780 yday. For 9K need 1551 in next 5 days. Likely miss that but it was a big target.

Thor: Love and Thunder Harkins T-21 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
416	104,985	7,850	7.48%	$105,309	$13.42

 

Really solid day. Added 401 new sales. 9K need 1150 in 4 days. Still tough but may be it will do it. If it actually do that, will be almost matching DSitMoM daily pace for next 4 days, which is really strong as in theory Thor/DSitMoM will keep increasing, so we may actually see Thor going over DSitMoM daily pace at some point of time.

 

But this is better done than just saying now.

[charlie Jatinder]

minions: The Rise of Gru Harkins T-14 Days

 

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
292	75,707	453	0.60%	$5,389	$11.90

 

Comps

0.497x Shang Chi T-14 days - $4.22M

 

Not a good comp considering Shang Chi is a CBM but it under-indexed here sort of, so may be it cancel outs. BUT... being $4.2M comp with a CBM is a really great number. Minions just like Lightyear will over-index here. 

 

The first number I had for Lightyear is T-8 days, so that will be a good comp. Lightyear was 747 including EA. Minions can surely add that much in next 6 days and will likely have more walkins than Lightyear. So $5M+ previews are certainly possible.

[Porthos]

On 6/12/2022 at 11:34 PM, Porthos said:

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-39 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	84	13622	13704	82	0.60%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

8

 

Regal:     11/3969  [0.28% sold]
Matinee:    1/863  [0.12% | 1.22% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Next report on Thr.

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-35 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	84	13579	13704	125	0.91%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Sunday

43

 

Regal:     14/3969  [0.35% sold]
Matinee:    5/863  [0.58% | 4.00% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Minions 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	167	24823	25197	374	1.48%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

29

 

T-15 Comp

%

Sold T-15

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

Sonic 2

81.30

33

460

0/76

11206/11666

3.94%

5847

6.40%

5.08m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Minions 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        40/5129  [0.78% sold]
Matinee:    22/2080  [1.06% | 5.88% of all tickets sold]

 

Minions 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	167	24811	25197	386	1.53%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

12

 

T-14 Comp

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A	122.54		40	315		0/108	16380/16695	1.89%		9196	4.20%		5.51m
Sonic 2	76.59		44	504		0/76	11162/11666	4.32%		5847	6.60%		4.79m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Minions 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        40/5129  [0.78% sold]
Matinee:    22/2080  [1.06% | 5.70% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	228	26540	31600	5060	16.01%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

336

 

Day 3 Comps     

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH	33.14		628	15268		0/298	21158/36426	41.92%		28183	17.95%		16.57m
Batman	149.17		157	3392		0/248	28906/32298	10.50%		11757	43.04%		32.22m
MoM	64.69		419	7822		0/329	33094/40916	19.12%		21117	23.96%		23.29m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        451/4831  [9.34% sold]
Matinee:    216/2566  [8.42% | 4.27% of all tickets sold]

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	228	26309	31600	5291	16.74%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

231

 

Day 4 Comps  

	%		Sold Day 4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH	33.53		511	15779		0/298	20647/36426	43.32%		28183	18.77%		16.77m
Batman	150.40		126	3518		0/248	28780/32298	10.89%		11757	45.00%		32.49m
MoM	65.26		285	8107		0/329	32809/40916	19.81%		21117	25.06%		23.50m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-21 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-21	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	183.65		2406	2881		0/248	29316/32197	8.95%		11757	45.00%		39.67m
MoM	57.93		187	9134		0/329	31774/40908	22.33%		21117	25.06%		20.85m

 

T-21 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-21	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	258.82		94	1865		0/105	16753/18618	10.02%		9196	57.54%		35.77m
L&T (adj)			203	4827		0/188	21476/26303	18.35%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  L&T (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Regal:        485/4831  [10.04% sold]
Matinee:    232/2566  [9.04% | 4.38% of all tickets sold]

 

---

 

Switching over to T-x comps, as flawed as they'll be, exclusively starting tomorrow..

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/10/2022 at 9:23 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
Jurassic World 3	3,848	181,854		146,026	35,828	4,999	21,300
Top Gun: Maverick	3,438	97,375	-30.14%	96,760	615	9	0
Doctor Strange 2	2,750	33,583	-25.56%	33,125	458	0	314
Bob's Burgers Movie	2,203	27,640	-35.83%	27,585	55	0	0
The Bad Guys	1,994	18,103	-32.01%	17,989	114	0	27
Downton Abbey 2	1,649	13,953	-57.22%	13,917	36	0	0
Everything Everywhere	857	7,161	-45.52%	7,141	20	0	0
Sonic the Hedgehog 2	811	5,893	-59.06%	5,890	3	0	0
Crimes of the Future	567	4,160	-54.43%	4,160	0	0	0
Watcher	631	4,063	-61.22%	4,049	14	0	0
Ante Sundharaniki	307	2,426		2,426	0	0	0
The Lost City	228	1,462	-65.24%	1,456	6	0	0

 

US showtime sample for 6/10/22 weekend

 

OW shows comps

Jurassic World: Dominion - 181,854* (3,848 TC) (35,828 PLF)

 - Top Gun 2 - 182,709 (3,834) (16,305 PLF) (3D makes up the difference in PLF)

 - Batman - 171,959 (3,553) (13,680 PLF)

 - No Way Home - 206,421 (3,340) (28,624 PLF)

 - Dr. Strange 2 - 229,917 (3,660) (42,543 PLF)

*Includes 884 showings of the JW:D/Jurassic Park double feature*

 

Added in the Marvels to show just how high those show counts got.  

 

Preview shows comps

JW3 - 28,686

TG:M - 29,729

Batman - 30,665

NWH - 40,351

DS2 - 41,962

 

T-1 Week

Lightyear 6/15 EA - 462 (456 TC)

Lightyear - 82,420 (2,745 TC) (27,340 PLF)

 - Venom 2 - 81,718 (2,807) (12,495 IMAX) (didn't record 3D)

 - Morbius - 72,706 (2,812) (12,843 PLF)

 

There's a big gap above Lightyear where the next movie up is JW3 at 117,594 shows.  One thing I did want to note is the massive number of IMAX 3D shows that it's getting.  The IMAX/3D/IMAX 3D combo is accounting for over 25k shows for the full weekend.  DS2 was at 28k at this point, JW3 was only at 21k.

 

T-2 Weeks Previews

Black Phone 6/15 EA - 150 (150 TC)

Black Phone - 4,684 (1,873 TC)

 - Scream - 4,141 (1,945)

Elvis 6/21 EA - 223 (218 TC)

Elvis - 5,527 (2,328 TC)

 - Lost City - 5,838 (2,142)

 - Dune - 5,906 (2,129)

 

Both of these are in a weird range as well with not many comps.  Maybe theaters are waiting to see how JW3/TG2 perform before allocating too many screens.

 

T-3 Weeks Previews

Minions 2 - 16,936 (2,268 TC) (5,140 PLF)

 - JW3 - 19,486 (2,624) (5,056)

 - Venom 2 - 12,285 (1,978) (2,686 IMAX)

 

Not many comps three weeks out at this magnitude

 

T-4 Weeks Previews

Thor 4 - 7,417 (741 TC) (2,401 PLF)

 - TG:M - 8,786 (822) (1,228)

 

T-6 Weeks Previews

Nope - 4,794 (1,157) (1,187 PLF)

 - JW3 - 14,816 (1,827) (4,408)

 

Yeah, that's the only other movie I started at T-6 weeks

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
Lightyear	3,392	154,652		119,263	35,389	1,348	30,184
Jurassic World 3	3,649	106,760	-41.29%	90,204	16,556	3,024	10,493
Top Gun: Maverick	3,192	72,840	-25.20%	72,518	322	12	0
Doctor Strange 2	1,889	22,514	-32.96%	22,389	125	0	110
Bob's Burgers Movie	1,075	8,033	-70.94%	8,027	6	0	0
The Bad Guys	1,050	7,845	-56.66%	7,826	19	0	12
Downton Abbey 2	864	6,349	-54.50%	6,337	12	0	0
Everything Everywhere	536	3,825	-46.59%	3,819	6	0	0
Brian and Charles	255	3,689		3,689	0	0	0
Virata Parvam	241	2,038		2,038	0	0	0
Sonic the Hedgehog 2	273	1,993	-66.18%	1,992	1	0	0

 

US showtime sample for 6/17/22 weekend

 

Market is insanely top heavy this week with the last four big releases dominating show counts.  

 

OW shows comps

Lightyear 6/15 EA - 481 (469 TC)

Lightyear - 154,652 (3,392 TC) (35,389 PLF)

 - Black Widow - 156,781 (3,409) (19,112 IMAX) (didn't record 3D)

 - Morbius - 134,155 (3,418) (15,270 PLF)

 - Venom 2 - 137,474 (3,273) (13,022 IMAX) (didn't record 3D)

 

T-1 Week

Black Phone 6/15 EA - 150 (150 TC)

Black Phone 6/22 EA - ....

Black Phone - 30,912 (2,156 TC)

 - Halloween Kills - 32,962 (2,343)

 - Death on the Nile - 33,327 (2,240)

Elvis 6/21 EA - 223 (216 TC)

Elvis - 38,236 (2,726 TC)

 - Lost City - 38,802 (2,634)

 - Downton Abbey 2 - 32,295 (2,760)

 

Black Phone 6/22 shows are suspiciously missing from my source.  I was already wondering if the shows in my regionals were by accident, but all three are still there and marked as early screenings.  Can anyone else see Regal shows on the 22nd?

 

T-2 Weeks Previews

Minions 2 - 117,719 (2,447 TC) (5,190 PLF)

 - JW3 - 20,186 (2,773) (5,091)

 - Venom 2 - 13,768 (2,381) (2,499 IMAX)

 - Top Gun 2 - 21,595 (2,856) (2,787)

 

T-3 Weeks Previews

Thor 4 - 23,551 (2,550 TC) (2,550 PLF)

 - TG:M - 20,170 (2,554) (2,697)

 - Batman - 21,077 (2,439) (2,426)

 - JW:D - 19,486 (2,624) (5,056)

 - DS2 - 30,203 (2,704) (7,303)

 

Clearly not getting the same rollout as DS2; like others have said, likely waiting to see how the current movies perform the next couple of weeks before allocating screens for that weekend.

 

T-5 Weeks Previews

Nope - 7,656 (1,929) (1,987 PLF)

 - JW3 - 18,526 (2,512) (4,973)

 

Still the only other movie this far out.

[M37]

29 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

T-1 Week

Black Phone 6/15 EA - 150 (150 TC)

Black Phone 6/22 EA - ....

Black Phone - 30,912 (2,156 TC)

 - Halloween Kills - 32,962 (2,343)

 - Death on the Nile - 33,327 (2,240)

Elvis 6/21 EA - 223 (216 TC)

Elvis - 38,236 (2,726 TC)

 - Lost City - 38,802 (2,634)

 - Downton Abbey 2 - 32,295 (2,760)

 

Black Phone 6/22 shows are suspiciously missing from my source.  I was already wondering if the shows in my regionals were by accident, but all three are still there and marked as early screenings.  Can anyone else see Regal shows on the 22nd?

Yes, there are Black Phone shows on the 22nd at Regal.  Spot checking some markets, it looks to be a limited roll-out, presuming the same 150 TC that was allocated to AMC for their investor showings on the 15th.  On Fandango though, they aren't listed as EA, but just under the regular title, dated for the 22nd

[katnisscinnaplex]

Thanks, at least I'm not going crazy.  I even pulled up a few of the theaters on the showtime source and the showings are completely missing.  First time I've seen that I think.  I'll check again in a few days 

[filmlover]

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 6/16/22)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
6/24/2022	The Black Phone	$14,000,000 – $19,000,000	-11%	$43,000,000 – $67,000,000	-11%	Universal Pictures
6/24/2022	Elvis	$31,000,000 – $46,000,000		$94,000,000 – $143,000,000		Warner Bros. Pictures
7/1/2022	Minions: The Rise of Gru	$65,000,000 – $77,000,000		$195,000,000 – $260,000,000	-8%	Universal Pictures
7/8/2022	Thor: Love and Thunder	$155,000,000 – $205,000,000		$350,000,000 – $495,000,000		Disney / Marvel Studios
7/15/2022	Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris					Focus Features
7/15/2022	Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank	$9,000,000 – $14,000,000		$28,000,000 – $45,000,000		Paramount Pictures
7/15/2022	Where the Crawdads Sing	$17,000,000 – $26,000,000		$48,000,000 – $85,000,000		Sony / 3000 Pictures

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Where the Crawdads Sing and Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

[M37]

16 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Lightyear Denver Preview Showings

Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

321

2085

15.40%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

199

1373

14.49%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1635	773	20056	8.15%	15	158

 

AMCs sold	1010
Cinemarks sold	232
Regals sold	160
Harkins sold	233

 

Wednesday

Total

297

2111

Overall

Grand Total

1932

773

22167

 

2.36x Encanto T-0 (3.54M)

0.957x Ghostbusters T-0 (4.31M)

1.80x Free Guy T-0 (3.97M)

1.85x Jungle Cruise T-0 (5.00M)

 

Something that might be important to note is that all of these comps, besides Ghostbusters, had a Thursday start time of 6PM. With that start time, I think that a lot of the family walkup/same day business will be captured, but a lot of that may be missing with this 3PM start time. I think Drafthouse is kinda showing what I'm talking about with the chain being less dependent on walkups, so the Encanto comp doesn't seem super low like Megaplex and Denver. Plus I didn't get the Wednesday numbers right before start time, so those will make the comps undershoot a little. And of course adjustments upward should be made for all these comps because of ATP, closures, and whatnot. So I'll go with 5.4M for overall previews

Think @Inceptionzq makes a good point here, but I’ll take it a step further: titles with strong walkups are more likely to appear soft as compared to comps 

 

Think we’re going to see a bit higher than expectations, $6.7 +\- 0.3, all told, but knowing Disney’s propensity to round, expecting a $7 report even if doesn’t quite get there 

[Jonwo]

10 hours ago, filmlover said:

I mean, isn't that what Disney Animation itself is putting out this Thanksgiving anyway? 

 

(hopefully it works out for them since the last time they dabbled in the genre - Atlantis, Treasure Planet - they produced some of the biggest bombs in their entire history)

TBF I think audiences are more receptive of WDAS doing films that aren't musicals compared to 2001 and 2002. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/16/2022 at 10:28 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Phone	T-7	Jax	6	16	0	34	1,959	1.74%
		Phx	5	13	4	37	2,108	1.76%
		Ral	7	18	8	47	1,933	2.43%
	Total		18	47	12	118	6,000	1.97%
Black Phone (EA)	T-6	Jax	1	1	0	0	194	0.00%
		Ral	2	2	14	14	306	4.58%
	Total		3	3	14	14	500	2.80%
Elvis	T-7	Jax	7	27	14	130	4,689	2.77%
		Phx	6	16	15	112	2,103	5.33%
		Ral	8	20	2	107	2,074	5.16%
	Total		21	63	31	349	8,866	3.94%
Elvis (EA)	T-6	Jax	2	2	0	85	403	21.09%
	Total		2	2	0	85	403	21.09%
Lightyear	T-0	Jax	6	78	158	484	10,445	4.63%
		Phx	7	77	247	772	11,728	6.58%
		Ral	8	52	141	467	5,180	9.02%
	Total		21	207	542	1,663	27,156	6.12%
Minions 2	T-14	Jax	6	101	2	74	16,556	0.45%
		Phx	6	66	6	98	12,191	0.80%
		Ral	8	52	12	96	6,699	1.43%
	Total		20	219	20	268	35,446	0.76%
Nope	T-35	Jax	7	51	0	35	8,591	0.41%
		Phx	6	20	6	62	4,344	1.43%
		Ral	8	24	0	50	3,368	1.48%
	Total		21	95	6	147	16,303	0.90%
Thor 4	T-21	Jax	7	92	57	1,127	14,689	7.67%
		Phx	6	111	75	1,540	18,041	8.54%
		Ral	8	61	64	1,328	8,164	16.27%
	Total		21	264	196	3,995	40,894	9.77%

 

Looks like Regal is getting in on the Black Phone EA with shows popping up for next Wednesday.  Yesterday's AMC EA did pretty well, so I guess that's why.

 

Lightyear (Thu) T-0 comps

 - Bad Guys - 7.94x (9.13m)

 - Encanto (Tue) - 3.81x (5.72m)

 - Sonic 2 - .983x (4.89m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 2.56x (6.82m)

 - Free Guy - 3x (6.62m)

 - Sing 2 (OD) - .427x (3.56m)

 

It's coming in right at Sonic 2 numbers at the moment, but comps are all over the place. I'll put my early prediction at 5.5m, subject to change when I run my final numbers this afternoon

 

Black Phone (Thu) T-7 comps

 - Ghostbusters - .204x (849k)

 - Morbius - .151x (858k)

 - Suicide Squad - .298x (1.22m)

 - Halloween Kills - .273x (1.32m)

 

Elvis (Thu) T-7 comps

 - No Time to Die - .51x (2.65m)

 - F9 - .362x (2.57m)

 - Ghostbusters - .605x (2.51m)

 - FB3 - .294x (1.76m)

 

Minions 2 T-14 comp

 - Sonic 2 - .835x (4.16m)

 - FB3 - .567x (3.4m)

 

Not even gonna try for Nope.  The earliest horror I tracked was Black Phone that had 24 tickets sold in its first day.  Historically horror is not heavy on presales so I normally wait until the week before release to start tracking.  I'll keep it in the updates but probably no comps for a few weeks at least.

 

Thor 4 - 3 days comps

 - Eternals - 4.06x (38.53m)

 - Batman + EA - missed

 - No Way Home - .243x (12.13m)

 - Dr. Strange 2 - missed

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Phone	T-6	Jax	6	16	9	43	1,959	2.19%
		Phx	5	13	8	45	2,108	2.13%
		Ral	7	18	0	47	1,933	2.43%
	Total		18	47	17	135	6,000	2.25%
Black Phone (EA)	T-5	Jax	1	1	0	0	194	0.00%
		Ral	2	2	4	18	306	5.88%
	Total		3	3	4	18	500	3.60%
Elvis	T-6	Jax	7	27	2	132	4,689	2.82%
		Phx	6	16	6	118	2,103	5.61%
		Ral	8	20	6	113	2,074	5.45%
	Total		21	63	14	363	8,866	4.09%
Elvis (EA)	T-5	Jax	2	2	5	90	403	22.33%
	Total		2	2	5	90	403	22.33%
Minions 2	T-13	Jax	6	101	6	80	16,556	0.48%
		Phx	6	66	-2	96	12,191	0.79%
		Ral	8	52	15	111	6,699	1.66%
	Total		20	219	19	287	35,446	0.81%
Nope	T-34	Jax	7	51	5	40	8,591	0.47%
		Phx	6	20	-2	60	4,344	1.38%
		Ral	8	25	-2	48	3,411	1.41%
	Total		21	96	1	148	16,346	0.91%
Thor 4	T-20	Jax	7	112	57	1,184	17,265	6.86%
		Phx	6	111	69	1,609	18,041	8.92%
		Ral	8	61	67	1,395	8,164	17.09%
	Total		21	284	193	4,188	43,470	9.63%

 

Black Phone (Thu) T-6 comps

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - Morbius - .161x (918k)

 - Suicide Squad - .318x (1.3m)

 - Halloween Kills - missed

 

Elvis (Thu) T-6 comps

 - No Time to Die - missed

 - F9 - .362x (2.47m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - FB3 - .278x (1.67m)

 

Minions 2 T-13 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .797x (3.97m)

 - FB3 - .486x (2.91m)

 

Not even gonna try for Nope.  The earliest horror I tracked was Black Phone that had 24 tickets sold in its first day.  Historically horror is not heavy on presales so I normally wait until the week before release to start tracking.  I'll keep it in the updates but probably no comps for a few weeks at least.

 

Thor 4 T-20 comps

 - Dr. Strange 2 - .483x (17.38m)

 - Batman - 2.27x (39.97m)

 - Black Widow - 2.93x (38.69m)

 - JW3 - 1.97x (35.44m)

[Shawn Robbins]

13 hours ago, M37 said:

It’s smaller chains, but @Inceptionzq does full Th/F/S/S breakdowns for Megaplex and Drafthouse. The final sales numbers are more frontloaded than Ghostbusters:Afterlife at the same point, particularly Th vs Sat, which does not suggest a higher IM 

 

Even getting to a 10x in today’s market is backloaded, 25% more so than JWD 

Interesting. There could be something there. To be honest, though, I'd personally expect Afterlife to be more pre-sale heavy as an older male (58% male, 58% over 25)/fan-driven/less diverse audience property with minimal appeal to today's generation of kids, and a wider IMAX footprint to boot (where seating is at a genuine premium, and most savvy moviegoers have caught on to it).

 

Parents often tend to seek out traditional/non-premium shows for affordability, and/or purchase tickets much closer to showtime if not becoming literal walk-up transactions. Pixar also tends to skew to a more balanced demographic that hovers between 48-52% on either side of the male/female equation due to the parental factor. Age skews younger as well (58% under 25 for Cars 3, 56% under for I2, and 55% under for TS4).

 

You're definitely right, and most of the time I would fully agree that 10x would be/is backloaded for many films, but today's market hasn't had a weekend or a specific movie quite like this one. We don't have a real precedent for a major Pixar release (that's somewhere between a franchise movie and an origin story with less demand) opening on a back-end holiday weekend, post-Disney+, with a very short pre-sale window, with theatrical exclusivity, and with two other films attracting significant ticket sales and reservation spots recently.

 

There's data and reasonable hypotheses to support all sides of the debate here. We should all be careful and just stay open minded and consider a wide range of outcomes as realistic. There comes a point where everyone is just guessing based on the best available information, especially with kids' movies because that's the most challenging demo to track for obvious reasons. The existence of comps does not inherently make all comps useful, and I've been guilty of that myself.

 

TL;DR -- We'll see what happens. If we're too high, we're too high. This movie has inspired an interesting debate, to be sure. Regardless of whichever assumptions for the post-Thursday holds prove accurate, the one thing I believe is that if Lightyear of all things can't hit $70-75M or more and retain at least half of TS4's audience, the Disney/Pixar debacle is going to enter a whole new phase of conversation.

 

I'm unplugging for the weekend to reset for next. Have fun, all. 

[Issac Newton]

From Deadline Hollywood:

 

Presales for Lightyear were estimated to be around $10M as of yesterday, just under Sonic the Hedgehog 2‘s $12M-$14M.

 

[Sandro Mazzola]

On 6/13/2022 at 8:22 PM, EmpireCity said:

 

Lol, wut?