The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[LegendaryBen]

2 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Phone	T-5	Jax	6	16	0	43	1,959	2.19%
		Phx	5	13	16	61	2,108	2.89%
		Ral	7	17	6	53	1,842	2.88%
	Total		18	46	22	157	5,909	2.66%
Black Phone (EA)	T-4	Jax	1	1	2	2	194	1.03%
		Ral	2	2	1	19	306	6.21%
	Total		3	3	3	21	500	4.20%
Elvis	T-5	Jax	7	27	28	160	4,689	3.41%
		Phx	6	16	4	122	2,103	5.80%
		Ral	8	19	22	135	1,983	6.81%
	Total		21	62	54	417	8,775	4.75%
Elvis (EA)	T-4	Jax	1	1	16	94	403	26.30%
Minions 2	T-12	Jax	6	101	4	84	16,556	0.51%
		Phx	6	66	8	104	12,191	0.85%
		Ral	8	52	8	119	6,699	1.78%
	Total		20	219	20	307	35,446	0.87%
Nope	T-33	Jax	7	51	0	40	8,591	0.47%
		Phx	6	20	2	62	4,344	1.43%
		Ral	8	25	1	49	3,411	1.44%
	Total		21	96	3	151	16,346	0.92%
Thor 4	T-19	Jax	7	112	36	1,220	17,265	7.07%
		Phx	6	111	80	1,689	18,041	9.36%
		Ral	8	63	71	1,466	8,326	17.61%
	Total		21	286	187	4,375	43,632	10.03%

 

Black Phone (Thu) T-5 comps

 - Candyman - 1.495x (2.84m)

 - Firestarter - 4.76x (1.78m)

D - Resident Evil (Tue) - 2.15x (2.01m)

 - Halloween Kills - missed

 

FINALLY some horror comps.  I think these will come down a bit until the last few days, but I could be wrong.

 

Elvis (Thu) T-5 comps

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 6.62x (3.97m)

 - F9 - .366x (2.6m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - Lost City - 1.96x (4.89m)

 

I'm struggling for comps here.  Thinking it'll rely heavily on an older demo, but I don't have many of those.  Downton would be good but two full days of previews screws that up as a comp.

 

Minions 2 T-12 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .812x (4.04m)

 - FB3 - .464x (2.78m)

 - Ghostbusters (Thu) - .74x (3.07m)

 - Shang-Chi - .404x (3.56m)

  Reveal hidden contents

Boss Baby 2 - 76.75x (100.54m)

 

Nope T-33 comp

 - JW - .098x (1.77m)

 

It's something I guess

 

Thor 4 T-19 comps

 - Dr. Strange 2 - missed

 - Batman - missed

 - Black Widow - 2.88x (38.02m)

 - JW3 - 1.99x (35.88m)

 

Downton Abbey is a great one. Thanks for all of your hard work.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/16/2022 at 11:45 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Lightyear	PLF	3	75	276	1,152	23.96%	$14.09	$3,889.16
		Standard	63	517	1,139	7,934	14.36%	$10.88	$12,390.52
	Lightyear Total		66	592	1,415	9,086	15.57%	$11.51	$16,279.68
T-21	Thor 4	PLF	57	98	2,851	11,672	24.43%	$16.04	$45,722.44
		Standard	87	100	1,387	11,439	12.13%	$12.02	$16,672.87
	Thor 4 Total		144	198	4,238	23,111	18.34%	$14.72	$62,395.31

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Lightyear	N	45	360	922	6,091	15.14%	$12.51	$11,531.97
		Y	21	232	493	2,995	16.46%	$9.63	$4,747.71
	Lightyear Total		66	592	1,415	9,086	15.57%	$11.51	$16,279.68
T-21	Thor 4	N	103	153	3,496	16,531	21.15%	$15.35	$53,653.39
		Y	41	45	742	6,580	11.28%	$11.78	$8,741.92
	Thor 4 Total		144	198	4,238	23,111	18.34%	$14.72	$62,395.31

 

Lightyear T-0 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .7x (3.49m)

 - FB3 - .702x (4.21m)

 - Bob's Burgers - 4.1x (6.15m)

 

I think it was a good day for Lightyear, but I was hoping for more.  Based on Santikos I'd have to guess somewhere in the 5m range for true Thursday.

 

Thor 4 (3 days) comps

 - DS2 - missed

 - NWH - .308x (15.41m)

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-19	Thor 4	PLF	57	146	2,997	11,672	25.68%	$16.01	$47,992.64
		Standard	87	143	1,530	11,439	13.38%	$11.97	$18,317.01
	Thor 4 Total		144	289	4,527	23,111	19.59%	$14.65	$66,309.65

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-19	Thor 4	N	103	219	3,715	16,531	22.47%	$15.28	$56,770.53
		Y	41	70	812	6,580	12.34%	$11.75	$9,539.12
	Thor 4 Total		144	289	4,527	23,111	19.59%	$14.65	$66,309.65

 

*New sales since Thursday*

 

No T-19 comps unfortunately.  Not really impressed with the last few days here, but there's plenty of time left.

[charlie Jatinder]

37 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Boss Baby 2 - 76.75x (100.54m

Banananana

[LegendaryBen]

6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Elvis Harkins T-6 Days

 

Day	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Early Access	7	2,283	1,019	44.63%	$15,478	$15.19
Thursday	99	23,679	509	2.15%	$5,664	$11.13
Total	106	25,962	1,528	5.89%	$21,142	$13.84

 

Comps

0.66x Shang Chi T-6 Days - $5.60M (THU only $1.88M)

1.51x The Suicide Squad T-6 Days (California only) - $6.21M (THU only $1.34M)

 

Big early access screenings which have deflated THU in the chain. The pace is quite strong as well, added 400 in last 2 days.

I hope this indicates a $40M+ opening for Elvis.

[Tinalera]

Minions

SW/Toronto Ontario

Thurs June 30/Fri July 1 T-13

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	15	60	70	16186	16256	0.0043
Fri	15	87	126	23577	32077	0.0053

 

 

No I don't have comps for this as I am still building my comps list. At T-7 I will have some comps for Lightyear (which will be interesting to see)

[keysersoze123]

Thor: Love and Thunder MTC2(T-20) Previews - 79348/519476 1136025.73 3263 shows

 

I dont have any full equivalent comps with DS2. Around April 20/21 time DS2 finished with 

167358/751935 2273489.63 5389 shows. Key thing to note is DS2 already had much bigger release than what Thor is having. Let us how things go. To me just looking at what MTC1 is saying its still around mid 20s previews. Let us see how things go. 

 

 

[keysersoze123]

9 hours ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

Chances of Minnions outdoing Lightyear? 

At this point its highly probable. Even if it underperforms relative to last movie OW in 50s should be easy. 

[Tinalera]

Thor 4

SW/Toronto Ontario

Thurs July 6/Fri July 7 (t-20)

 

 

thor4	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	20	133	5100	25503	30603	0.1666
Fri	20	278	2844	37559	40403	0.0703

 

Again no comps as I don't have any at T-20 (and I hadn't planned on starting till t-7 till that little voice said "well why not?" Sigh.....

 

I think the biggest observation here is how Thurs is doubling fridays here-interesting to see, comparing to Lightyear or Minions, guess once again the Marvel tentpole people really want to see it before spoilers on Thurs night..

 

Yes there are Wed special shows, no Im really not feeling doing the special Wed one offs lol. I mean granted it won't be long before "Wednesdays" are the new "Thursdays" Im sure.

[charlie Jatinder]

So 20.7M for Lightyear from Disney.  This mostly confirms that 5.2M didn't include EA because what I am seeing for FRI reported will be giving $20.1-20.2M, hence $600K ish is for EA. 

 

Will be confirmed with SAT tho.

[Tinalera]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

At this point its highly probable. Even if it underperforms relative to last movie OW in 50s should be easy. 

Well IF (and thats a big one) my comparison numbers show (if I messed something up, go easy Im still very new at this)....heres Minions I just did for T-13 vs Lightyear at T-7 from my neck of the woods for SW Ontario and Toronto

 

T-13 Thurs .0043 Fri .0053 for Minions

 

T-7 Lightyear .0036 for Thurs and .0011 for Friday.

 

Minions is already outdoing Lightyear almost a week earlier

 

Almost no one out in my neck wanted to see Lightyear I guess.

[Tinalera]

For what its worth from Comic Book Resources:

 

https://www.cbr.com/jurassic-world-lightyear-opening-box-office/

 

51-55 million for Lightyear. If indeed that's the weekend take.....pretty much speaks for itself. Ooof.

[CJohn]

Sad about The Black Phone impending flopping. I really thought it had breakout potential.

[LegendaryBen]

31 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Sad about The Black Phone impending flopping. I really thought it had breakout potential.

Its more of a walkup film. Let's not lose hope yet. Its Thursday previews need to be at least $1.5m to avoid a disappointment.

[ZackM]

I'm going to pause my Thor tracking for a day or two.  I need to work through some things.

[Eric is Anxious]

23 hours ago, Eric Lightyear said:

Minions: The Rise of Gru Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	120	144	26275	0.55%

 

Total Seats Sold the Past Two Days: 26

 

Comp

0.266x of Sonic the Hedgehog 2 T-13 (1.66M)

 

Yeah I forgot to get my charts up last time. Whoops! But I still recorded yesterday and today seperately, and better late then never.

Minions: The Rise of Gru Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	120	184	26275	0.70%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 40

 

Comp

0.319x of Sonic the Hedgehog 2 T-12 (1.99M)

[Eric is Anxious]

23 hours ago, Eric Lightyear said:

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-20 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	184	4587	34283	13.38%

 

Total Seats Sold the Past Two Days: 369

 

Comp

1.147x of The Batman T-20 (24.78M)

0.527x of Doctor Strange 2 T-20 (18.99M)

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-19 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	184	4689	34283	13.68%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 102

 

Comp

1.111x of The Batman T-19 (24.01M)

0.532x of Doctor Strange 2 T-19 (19.15M)

[Eric is Anxious]

23 hours ago, Eric Lightyear said:

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-34 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	120	11053	1.09%

 

Total Seats Sold the Past Two Days: 12

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-33 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	123	11053	1.11%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 3

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Minions 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	167	24778	25197	419	1.66%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

33

 

T-13 Comp

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A	115.11		49	364		0/108	16331/16695	2.18%		9196	4.56%		5.18m
Sonic 2	75.91		48	552		0/80	11703/12255	4.50%		5847	7.17%		4.74m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Minions 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:         47/5129  [0.92% sold]
Matinee:    22/2080  [1.06% | 5.25% of all tickets sold]

 

Minions 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	167	24744	25197	453	1.80%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

34

 

T-12 Comp

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A	112.97		37	401		0/108	16294/16695	2.40%		9196	4.93%		5.08m
Sonic 2	78.65		24	576		0/80	11682/12258	4.70%		5847	7.75%		4.92m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Minions 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:         54/5129  [1.05% sold]
Matinee:    22/2080  [1.06% | 4.86% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	228	26075	31600	5525	17.48%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

234

 

T-20 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	170.79		354	3235		0/248	29063/32298	10.02%		11757	46.99%		36.89m
MoM	59.63		132	9266		0/329	31642/40908	22.65%		21117	26.16%		21.47m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

T-20 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	259.94		77	1942		0/105	16676/18618	10.43%		9196	60.08%		35.93m
L&T (adj)			221	5048		0/188	21255/26303	19.19%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  L&T (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:         506/4831  [10.47% sold]
Matinee:    240/2566  [9.35% | 4.34% of all tickets sold]

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	228	25920	31600	5680	17.97%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

155

 

T-19 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-19	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	167.45		157	3392		0/248	28906/32298	10.50%		11757	48.31%		36.17m
MoM	60.05		193	9459		0/329	31449/40908	23.12%		21117	26.90%		21.62m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-19 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-19	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	259.06		61	2003		0/105	16615/18618	10.76%		9196	61.77%		35.81m
L&T (adj)			141	5189		0/188	21114/26303	19.73%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  L&T (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:        524/4831  [10.85% sold]
Matinee:    252/2566  [9.82% | 4.44% of all tickets sold]

[BadOlCatSylvester]

6 hours ago, CJohn said:

Sad about The Black Phone impending flopping. I really thought it had breakout potential.

That potential was crushed into oblivion the moment the perpetrator at Uvalde pulled the trigger for the first time.

 

That being said, come on, it won't flop with a tiny $18M budget. Even a mid-teens opening will be more than enough to get it in the black. And that's the power of Blumhouse.