The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Nikostar]

21 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

$25m previews is what the first BP pulled off and mcu has just become more frontloaded since then (ds mom pulled off 36m, thor l&t pulled off 29m) BP also should have really good walkups since its a cultural event, i'd be surprised at thurs previews below 35m

Agree 

[MovieGuyKyle17]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/10/business/media/nikki-finke-dead.html

Quote

Nikki Finke, the acerbic, widely read entertainment reporter and blogger who broke Hollywood news, antagonized moguls and in 2006 founded the website Deadline Hollywood Daily, now known simply as Deadline, died on Sunday in Boca Raton, Fla. She was 68.

Madelyn Hammond, a spokeswoman for her family, announced her death, saying only that it resulted from a long illness.

 

[jedijake]

17 minutes ago, Wolverpool XXR said:

 

What do you need help understanding? No better way to learn than to just ask

 

  Hide contents

Just don't ask Porthos. He flies into a profane rage when anyone below a gold account dares to speak to him 

 

Call me feeble minded, but I never understood how comps work. For example:

1.18x Thor L&T Day 5 (58.47M)

Does this mean that BPWF has sold 1.18 times as many tickets this far out than TLT sold this far out? (or I should say 5 days past when tickets went on sale?). And thus the number in parentheses is an extrapolated total if the same rate of sales took place?

 

I just wonder if the numbers shown in parentheses are constantly in motion based on daily changes (which won't change much until we get to the last week). It also seems that TWO movie franchises/genres generate huge day 1-3 ticket sales. That being superhero movies and Star Wars movies.(which is why JWD is so damn weak). We will probably be able to add Avatar to that list, but there is no precedent for Avatar yet.

 

Add to that, I am confused as to whether the numbers in parentheses take into consideration what walk-ups could be based on previous data.

 

Hope these questions make sense. Really, it's just a matter of whether the numbers or parentheses are ONLY the pre-sale numbers based on the movies being compared on the same day of sales.

 

[XXR & Friends]

30 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Call me feeble minded, but I never understood how comps work. For example:

1.18x Thor L&T Day 5 (58.47M)

Does this mean that BPWF has sold 1.18 times as many tickets this far out than TLT sold this far out? (or I should say 5 days past when tickets went on sale?). And thus the number in parentheses is an extrapolated total if the same rate of sales took place?

You seem to understand it perfectly. Keep in mind though it’s not the extrapolated total of that day but a running total, hence when it changes daily.
 

 

30 minutes ago, jedijake said:

I just wonder if the numbers shown in parentheses are constantly in motion based on daily changes (which won't change much until we get to the last week). It also seems that TWO movie franchises/genres generate huge day 1-3 ticket sales. That being superhero movies and Star Wars movies.(which is why JWD is so damn weak). We will probably be able to add Avatar to that list, but there is no precedent for Avatar yet.

Yes, the dollar amount extrapolation changes daily based on the sales volume of that day VS the comp. 
 

Also yes, SH movies and SW movies tend to have higher presales and thus lower internal multipliers although there have been exceptions. 

 

 

30 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Add to that, I am confused as to whether the numbers in parentheses take into consideration what walk-ups could be based on previous data

Walk ups can’t be quantified in presales data, as they’re not applicable until the first day the movie goes on sale. Sometimes, ZackM or Katniss can run data by the hour in major movies to get an idea of the walk up rate but for the most part we just have to guesstimate based on tracking VS actuals.

 

Edited October 11, 2022 by Wolverpool XXR

[jedijake]

@Wolverpool XXRThank you!

 

One more question. If a alleged blockbuster like BPWF doesn't do gangbusters in its, say, first 3 days, does that tend to mean that sales will be more spread out than movies that break records in its first 3 days (like No Way Home or the Thanos films)?

 

Just wondering whether BPWF will be more spread out than, say, DSMOM.

[XXR & Friends]

9 minutes ago, jedijake said:

@Wolverpool XXRThank you!

 

One more question. If a alleged blockbuster like BPWF doesn't do gangbusters in its, say, first 3 days, does that tend to mean that sales will be more spread out than movies that break records in its first 3 days (like No Way Home or the Thanos films)?

 

Just wondering whether BPWF will be more spread out than, say, DSMOM.

It’ll be more spread out than NWH or MOM for sure, as there was great/exceptional hype in those by the fandom that drove early sales + shorter sales windows. 
 

Now, that doesn’t mean that BPWF is gonna be like Venom 2 where the comps explode in the last few days either. My expectation is something more in line with L&T with better WOM/reviews.

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, Wolverpool XXR said:

I know there are possible extenuating factors that may bolster these estimates (though I don't personally expect it to change much of anything), we're looking at $6-7M previews and 7-8x IM for Black Adam. 

Too early. I think its going higher looking at MTC1 data. 

[keysersoze123]

Halloween Ends

MTC1  - 34084/391264 578915.94 2001 shows

MTC2 - 21665/235281 283146.06 1431 shows

 

MTC2 data was as of 4PM PST and MTC1 ended at 7PM PST. I think 6 million previews is possible with good final surge. But matching HK looks good at this point. 

 

FYI Black Adam MTC1 previews this morning is at 36240/470864 671067.34 earlier this afternoon and that is why I think its going higher than what XXR thinks. 

[Eric the Minion]

On 10/9/2022 at 11:47 PM, Eric the Crocodile said:

Halloween Ends Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	85	1137	16637	6.83%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 104

 

Comp

0.890x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-4 (17.23M)

2.141x of The Conjuring 3 Sunday Before Release (20.99M)

1.325x of Halloween Kills T-4 (6.43M)

1.702x of Scream T-4 (5.96M)

Halloween Ends Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	92	1284	17369	7.39%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 147

 

Comp

0.758x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-3 (14.68M)

1.824x of The Conjuring 3 Monday Before Release (17.88M)

1.203x of Halloween Kills T-3 (5.84M)

1.607x of Scream T-3 (5.62M)

[Eric the Minion]

On 10/10/2022 at 12:03 AM, Eric the Crocodile said:

Black Adam Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	89	763	18518	4.12%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 45

 

Comp

0.882x of F9 T-11 (6.26M)

0.363x of Black Widow T-11 (4.79M)

2.552x of The Suicide Squad T-11 (10.46M)

0.722x of Shang-Chi T-11 (6.35M)

0.983x of Venom 2 T-11 (11.4M)

1.149x of No Time to Die T-11 (7.24M)

0.448x of Eternals T-11 (4.26M)

1.135x of Morbius T-11 (6.47M)

1.276x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-11 (7.65M)

0.411x of Jurassic World 3 T-11 (7.41M)

Black Adam Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	89	809	18518	4.37%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 46

 

Comp

0.908x of F9 T-10 (6.45M)

0.366x of Black Widow T-10 (4.83M)

2.585x of The Suicide Squad T-10 (10.6M)

0.684x of Shang-Chi T-10 (6.02M)

0.952x of Venom 2 T-10 (11.05M)

1.077x of No Time to Die T-10 (6.79M)

0.445x of Eternals T-10 (4.22M)

1.128x of Morbius T-10 (6.43M)

1.233x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-10 (7.4M)

0.416x of Jurassic World 3 T-10 (7.49M)

[Eric the Minion]

On 10/10/2022 at 12:08 AM, Eric the Crocodile said:

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-32 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	246	4711	42932	10.97%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 84

 

Comp

4.236x of Jurassic World 3 T-32 (76.26M)

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-31 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	246	4800	42932	11.18%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 89

 

Comp

4.233x of Jurassic World 3 T-31 (76.19M)

[Porthos]

On 10/10/2022 at 1:04 AM, Porthos said:

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-32 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	294	32404	37022	4618	12.47%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

79

 

Regal:        178/5034  [3.54% sold]
Matinee:    199/4102  [4.85% | 4.31% of all tickets sold]

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-31 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	294	32167	37022	4855	13.11%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	1
Total Seats Sold Today	237

 

Regal:        181/5034  [7.03% sold]
Matinee:    202/4102  [4.92% | 4.31% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

NOTE:::  There was a showing that popped up tonight as sold out.  It's at a theater that doesn't normally see much foot traffic though, so I suspect it might be a phantom sellout/error.  I'll keep an eye on it for a couple of days and if it isn't corrected, I'll go ahead and mark it as a sellout and announce the adjustment in seats sold when/if it happens.

 

COUPLE DAYS LATER EDIT:::  Still marked as a sellout a few days later so going ahead and updating this as well as Tuesday's report.

Edited October 14, 2022 by Porthos

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Black Adam Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	146	20993	22067	1074	4.87%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

44

 

T-11 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	294.25		14	365		0/81	13587/13952	2.62%		2352	45.66%		12.06m
SC	87.96		72	1221		0/101	15781/17002	7.18%		5847	18.37%		7.74m
LTBC	91.87		107	1169		0/156	24909/26078	4.48%		7712	13.93%		10.66m
ET	47.95		83	2240		0/96	13301/15541	14.41%		6409	16.76%		4.55m
Bats	24.04		130	4468		0/285	30994/35462	12.60%		11757	9.13%		5.19m
Morb	135.61		47	792		0/127	17950/18742	4.23%		3477	30.89%		7.73m
JW3	35.87		182	2994		0/191	22380/25374	11.80%		10966	9.79%		6.46m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Adam's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-11 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	95.74		59	1080		0/79	11335/12415	8.70%		4407	23.46%		7.12m
BA (adj)			44	1034		0/129	18585/19619	5.27%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  BA (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:       113/4106  [2.75% sold]
Matinee:    28/2196  [1.28% | 2.61% of all tickets sold]

 

Black Adam Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	148	21302	22423	1121	5.00%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	356
Total Seats Sold Today	47

 

T-10 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	288.92		23	388		0/82	13689/14077	2.76%		2352	47.66%		11.85m
SC	81.82		149	1370		0/101	15632/17002	8.06%		5847	19.17%		7.20m
LTBC	88.83		93	1262		0/156	24816/26078	4.84%		7712	14.54%		10.30m
ET	47.42		124	2364		0/96	13177/15541	15.21%		6409	17.49%		4.50m
Bats	24.20		165	4633		0/288	30971/35604	13.01%		11757	9.53%		5.23m
Morb	130.65		66	858		0/127	17884/18742	4.58%		3477	32.24%		7.45m
JW3	35.19		192	3186		0/191	22186/25372	12.56%		10966	10.22%		6.33m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Adam's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-10 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	94.31		62	1142		0/79	11275/12417	9.20%		4407	24.44%		7.01m
BA (adj)			43	1077		0/130	18642/19719	5.46%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  BA (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:       118/4106  [2.87% sold]
Matinee:    33/2196  [1.50% | 2.94% of all tickets sold]

[Jeight]

Black Adam trailers have zero hook in terms of story and characters. Who is Black Adam and why should we care? THey have been selling the movie based of the action instead of the actual premise of the film.

[Krissykins]

Liking the look of these Halloween Ends numbers. 

[jedijake]

Do people manually count seats to compile this data, or do they have inside information or computers that somehow do it? Because doing it manually for a city MUST be absolutely painful!!!

 

@Jeightthe only hook is seeing the Rock as a superhero and whether people want that. This is the case of being about the actor and not the character.

Edited October 11, 2022 by jedijake

[Jeight]

43 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Do people manually count seats to compile this data, or do they have inside information or computers that somehow do it? Because doing it manually for a city MUST be absolutely painful!!!

 

@Jeightthe only hook is seeing the Rock as a superhero and whether people want that. This is the case of being about the actor and not the character.

What does the Rock offer exactly? Since when his presence alone is compelling enough? We know jack shit about Black Adam based on 3 trailers. We have seen 3 seconds of the main villain of the film. The story so far has been "Black Adam has awakened and some super team fights him in a yellow city". That's it

[YM!]

Partially I think why Adam is doing well ticket wise is lack of tentpoles for the GA as we haven't had a big movie since July, the Rock being a sell and certain rumors of someone.

[GOGODanca]

2 hours ago, Jeight said:

What does the Rock offer exactly? Since when his presence alone is compelling enough? We know jack shit about Black Adam based on 3 trailers. We have seen 3 seconds of the main villain of the film. The story so far has been "Black Adam has awakened and some super team fights him in a yellow city". That's it

Is this a serious question? He's one of the biggest movie stars on the planet, there are people who will buy tickets just to see him, if BA was the same exact movie and played by some random actor, i doubt it would even be tracking for anything above 40m

[M37]

Just to put down a marker .... have a feeling Black Adam is going to be a less metro heavy/more walk-up friendly audience than the MCU comps. Not expecting quite a Venom 2 style late explosion, and far more early interest & sales than Suicide Squad comp would extrapolate to, but perhaps something in between those high end numbers and the lower range, high single digits ($8-$9M+) for Thursday

 

Also, when Netflix agreed to a one week special engagement for Glass Onion, they literally meant ONE WEEK. No Tuesday previews for Wed opening, and gets pulled on that Tuesday after Thanksgiving (final 11/29), not Thursday