The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Menor the Destroyer]

37 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

If anything BOP is often bullish on their initial long range forecasts, Thor didn't even hit the low range of their initial long-range projection and a few films on this one have already been lowered from a couple weeks ago. Not trying to take a slight on their work or anything as I'm sure it is pretty tricky to make an accurate projection this far out, but I'm not sure why this would be proof of 200+ whatsoever.

I think BOP is generally pretty fair and has a good balance of being too high and too low -- much better than the bullshit lowballs we get from the trades.

[M37]

6 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

It's my understanding that the incentives are generally understood to be the exact opposite -- better to say "well great, it overperformed" than make something look bad.

Think about who the paying customers are: advertisers, who benefit from demo tracking info for ad targeting, and exhibition, in terms of planning for screen allocation (as well as staffing, stocking, etc). In both instances, high-end potential is the target, particularly in post-pandemic box office when there’s been less revenue and really can’t afford to leave money on the table by underestimating. To be clear, this is not to be critical of tracking work, it’s just how the incentives are set-up

 

Especially on exhibition side, it’s much easier to adjust down for a softer opening than play catch-up when a film outruns expectations. For Halloween this weekend, theaters are basically planning for $60M, hoping for $50M, and ready to  shift if (when) it’s only $40M

[Factcheck]

18 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I think BOP is generally pretty fair and has a good balance of being too high and too low -- much better than the bullshit lowballs we get from the trades.

The-numbers projected $360M for WF, that's also too low, atleast $100M low.

[keysersoze123]

Halloween Ends Previews

MTC1 - 84926/513785 1338324.10 2920 shows

MTC2 - 71276/380275 884389.50 2773 shows

 

I could see 4.7m but any higher would surprise me. Definitely not hitting the OW of HK.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Halloween Ends Previews

MTC1 - 84926/513785 1338324.10 2920 shows

MTC2 - 71276/380275 884389.50 2773 shows

 

I could see 4.7m but any higher would surprise me. Definitely not hitting the OW of HK.

Halloween Kills did 89K and 95K. HK was very heavy in MTC 1 & 2 but this may be a bit normal. If it remain like HK, may be around $4.3-4.4M otherwise around $4.8M.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 9/30/2022 at 10:00 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Smile	3,169	60,493		54,385		6,108	0	0
Bros	2,995	46,647		46,473		174	0	0
The Good House	987	12,607		12,607		0	0	0
Beer Run	456	5,542		5,521		21	0	0
Vikram Vedha	497	4,934		4,911		23	0	0
Don't Worry, Darling	3,273	40,899	-29.05%	40,753	290.17	146	51	0
The Woman King	2,800	32,621	-20.15%	32,197	269.36	424	13	0
Barbarian	2,335	26,477	-6.81%	26,466	170.18	11	0	0
Avatar	1,533	18,219	-24.57%	1,368	435.97	16,851	2,818	13,982
Super-Pets	1,633	12,143	-18.72%	12,121	116.50	22	0	0
Bullet Train	1,626	11,998	-15.61%	11,974	127.65	24	0	0
See How They Run	1,355	10,687	-54.66%	10,663	81.19	24	0	0
Top Gun: Maverick	1,247	9,963	-27.69%	9,866	117.29	97	6	0
Minions 2	1,015	7,882	-16.30%	7,711	112.59	171	129	22
Pearl	1,204	7,745	-68.97%	7,737	76.21	8	0	0
The Invitation	799	6,035	-45.05%	6,033	94.78	2	0	0
Moonage Daydream	595	3,943	-40.03%	3,922	119.49	21	18	0
Crawdads	381	2,614	-50.83%	2,614	66.17	0	0	0
Beast	323	2,583	-41.53%	2,583	85.87	0	0	0
Running the Bases	314	2,280	-54.34%	2,280	48.23	0	0	0
Railway Children	316	1,885	-79.54%	1,885	26.51	0	0	0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 9/30 Weekend

 

OW Showtimes Comps

Smile (9/27 EA) - 418 (414 TC)

Smile - 60,493 (3,169 TC)

 - Beast - 57,591 (3,225)

 - Black Phone - 59,993 (2,800)

 - Dragon Ball Super - 62,110 (3,169)

 

Bros - 46,647 (2,995 TC)

 - Dog - 48,752 (3,099)

 - Easter Sunday - 49,821 (2,846)

 

The Good House - 12,607 (987 TC)

 - Wolf and the Lion - 12,069 (938)

 - Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris - 13,334 (935)

 - Breaking - 12,196 (891)

 

The Greatest Beer Run Ever - 5,542 (456 TC)

 - Tyson's Run - 5,682 (420)

 - 2000 Mules - 5,755 (400)

 - Eyes of Tammy Faye - 5,545 (394)

 - For the Love of Money - 5,585 (494)

 - Blue Bayou - 5,439 (444)

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile - 33,989 (2,382 TC)

 - The Bad Guys - 33,122 (2,264)

 - Addams Family - 33,520 (2,461)

 

Amsterdam - 25,658 (1,878 TC)

 - JJK:0 - 26,472 (2,001)

 - Firestarter - 25,486 (1,830)

 - Bros - 25,620 (2,161)

 - Matrix - 23,924 (2,657)

 

Terrifier 2 - 1,755 (650 TC)

 - Queenpins - 1,677 (144)

 

T-2 Weeks Preview Showtimes Comps

Halloween Ends - 7,934 (2,126 TC)

 - Bullet Train - 8,244 (1,877)

 - Nope - 8,442 (2,194)

 - Uncharted - 7,459 (2,177)

 

T-3 Weeks Preview Showtimes Comps

Black Adam - 10,710 (1,868 TC)

 - Venom - 12,285 (1,978)

 - Eternals - 8,959 (2,267)

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Halloween Ends	3,298	123,861		109,570		14,291	4,742	0
Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile	3,225	42,867		42,787		80	0	0
Smile	2,886	41,100		40,961		139	0	0
Amsterdam	2,492	27,985		27,942		43	0	0
The Woman King	2,001	21,675		21,645		30	0	0
Don't Worry Darling	2,190	21,569		21,525		44	0	0
Barbarian	1,460	14,780		14,774		6	0	0
Bros	1,808	11,418		11,413		5	0	0
Minions 2	1,020	6,866		6,822		44	0	21
Top Gun: Maverick	707	5,751		5,717		34	3	0
Super-Pets	633	4,348		4,342		6	0	0
Terrifier 2	652	4,164		4,163		1	0	0
Bullet Train	455	3,270		3,270		0	0	0
See How They Run	346	2,640		2,640		0	0	0
The Invitation	406	2,513		2,513		0	0	0
The Good House	301	2,219		2,219		0	0	0

*Missed last week on vacation so no change or psa to report.

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 10/14 Weekend

 

OW Showtimes Comps

Halloween Ends - 123,861 (3,298 TC)

 - Ghostbusters - 117,504 (3,243)

 - Morbius - 134,155 (3,418)

 - NTTD - 112,174 (3,529)

 

(Halloween Kills only had 92,661 in 3,143 on my report)

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

Ticket to Paradise (EA) - 100 (98 TC)

Ticket to Paradise - 31,725 (2,366 TC)

 - Downton Abbey - 32,295 (2,760)

 - Moonfall - 33,048 (2,259)

 - Marry Me - 27,987 (2,321)

Black Adam - 78,913 (2,901 TC)

 - Morbius - 72,706 (2,812)

 - Venom - 81,718 (2,807)

 - Eternals - 72,706 (2,812)

 

T-3 Weeks Preview Showtimes Comps

One Piece Red - 4,894 (1,791 TC)

 - Belle - 1,258 (767)

 - Dragon Ball Super - 6,877 (2,065)

 - Morbius - 4,809 (937)

 

T-4 Weeks Preview Showtimes Comps

Black Panther DF - 101 (100 TC)

Black Panther 2 - 28,743 (2,670 TC)

 - DS2 - 26,823 (2,402)

 - JW3 - 18,957 (2,593)

 

BP2 is already at 149,367 shows for the full weekend (including previews) with only 2,699 theaters.  That would already be the second highest I've tracked at one week out, behind DS2 which had 173,506 at that point.  NWH and Thor 4 were around the 132k-135k range with a week to go.

[efialtes76]

$5.4M for Halloween Ends.

[Derpity]

7 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

$5.4M for Halloween Ends.

 

Very nice! Should crack $50m.

[charlie Jatinder]

Hmm. That's surprising a bit but I guess ratios of chains have changed a bit since last year.

[Shawn Robbins]

Bit of an update on IMAX preview numbers for a couple of recent films. IMAX confirmed. FYI for those comping with these titles in the future.

 

Amsterdam: $78,500

Don't Worry Darling: $363,000

 

These were included in their respective preview totals reported by the studios at the time.

[Eduardo]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Hmm. That's surprising a bit but I guess ratios of chains have changed a bit since last year.

Surprise? Now make BA again 

[XXR & Friends]

31 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Hmm. That's surprising a bit but I guess ratios of chains have changed a bit since last year.

5PM previews vs 7PM previews.

 

Probably does 8.5-9x IM

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 10/13/2022 at 9:04 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Halloween Ends	PLF	27	1,311	1,311	6,468	20.27%	$15.07	$19,761.08
		Standard	44	838	838	5,172	16.20%	$11.11	$9,307.18
	Halloween Ends Total		71	2,149	2,149	11,640	18.46%	$13.53	$29,068.26

 

Comps

 

Nope - 1.69x (10.82m)

Black Phone - 2.85x (7.41m)

Morbius - 1.09x (6.22m)

 

Santikos is definitely tracking higher than regionals.  If not for those, I'd have guessed around 7.5m, but I don't see that happening.  Think it will probably break 5m though if this is any indication and maybe up to... 5.4m?  Sure, why not

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Halloween Ends (Fri)	PLF	47	2,245	2,245	10,800	20.79%	$14.78	$33,174.21
		Standard	80	1,625	1,625	9,913	16.39%	$10.97	$17,827.44
	Total		127	3,870	3,870	20,713	18.68%	$13.18	$51,001.65

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Halloween Ends (Fri)	N	77	3,528	3,528	12,614	27.97%	$13.47	$47,515.40
		Y	50	342	342	8,099	4.22%	$10.19	$3,486.25
	Total		127	3,870	3,870	20,713	18.68%	$13.18	$51,001.65

 

Well, the 5.4m came to fruition but the comps were pointing to a much higher number.  Let's see what today says.

 

Friday comps

 - Nope - 2.09x (27.44m)

 - Black Phone - 2.51x (18.16m)

 - Morbius - 1.57x (18.21m)

 

So it's true, Santikos loves Halloween.  

 

Adjusted Fri comps

 - Nope - 13.69m

 - Black Phone - 13.23m

 - Morbius - 15.81m

 

While I don't think it will get down to the 13s, I'm certainly not going with 18+ for Friday.  Weighing in a few other comps, I think I'll go with 14.4m for true Friday. 

[charlie Jatinder]

13 minutes ago, Wolverpool XXR said:

5PM previews vs 7PM previews.

 

Probably does 8.5-9x IM

Naa I am not concerned with IM here. 5.4M is higher than 5-5.1M is the concern.

[XXR & Friends]

35 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Naa I am not concerned with IM here. 5.4M is higher than 5-5.1M is the concern.

Did you adjust for the price changes since HK came out?

Edited October 14, 2022 by Wolverpool XXR

[XXR & Friends]

49 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

While I don't think it will get down to the 13s, I'm certainly not going with 18+ for Friday.  Weighing in a few other comps, I think I'll go with 14.4m for true Friday. 

That would be 80% of HK’s true Friday. If the weekend plays out similarly, we’d be looking at $41M.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 10/12/2022 at 1:45 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Adam	T-8	Jax	6	67	99	286	11,479	2.49%
		Phx	6	44	108	329	8,878	3.71%
		Ral	8	61	140	371	8,715	4.26%
	Total		20	172	347	986	29,072	3.39%

*New sales over the past week*

 

Black Adam T-8 comps

 - Eternals - .512x (4.865m)

 - Black Widow - .377x (4.97m)

 - Shang-Chi - .907x (7.98m)

 - Morbius - 1.345x (7.67m)

 

On 10/13/2022 at 9:31 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Paradise	T-7	Jax	4	10	15	15	1,457	1.03%
		Phx	5	12	9	9	1,469	0.61%
		Ral	8	19	17	17	1,798	0.95%
	Total		17	41	41	41	4,724	0.87%
Paradise (EA)	T-6	Jax	2	2	23	23	400	5.75%
	Total		2	2	23	23	400	5.75%

 

Paradise T-7 comps

 - Lost City - .205x (513k)

 - Bullet Train - .151x (507k)

 - Easter Sunday - 1.28x (641k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Adam	T-6	Jax	6	66	99*	385	11,202	3.44%
		Phx	6	44	47*	376	8,878	4.24%
		Ral	8	62	66*	437	8,996	4.86%
	Total		20	172	212*	1,198	29,076	4.12%
Paradise	T-6	Jax	5	13	7	22	1,793	1.23%
		Phx	5	12	0	9	1,469	0.61%
		Ral	8	19	0	17	1,798	0.95%
	Total		18	44	7	48	5,060	0.95%
Paradise (EA)	T-5	Jax	2	2	-1	22	400	5.50%
	Total		2	2	-1	22	400	5.50%

*Black Adam new sales since Wednesday

 

Paradise T-6 comps

 - Lost City - .236x (591k)

 - Bullet Train - .15x (504k)

 - Easter Sunday - 1.04x (522k)

 - Bros - 1.412x (706k)

 

 

Black Adam T-6 comps

 - Eternals - .542x (5.152m)

 - Black Widow - .397x (5.24m)

 - Shang-Chi - .922x (8.116m)

 - Morbius - 1.43x (8.15m)

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Call Jane T-15: 18.67% Awareness, 4.71 Interest

Tar T-15: 11.23%, 4.25

One Piece Film: Red T-22: 20.87%, 4.61

Strange World T-41: 25.14%, 5.09

M3gan T-92: 22.2%, 5.39

Cocaine Bear T-134: 13.7%, 5.12

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse T-232: 46.63%, 6.29

 

The Menu T-36: 19.68% Awareness, 5.0 Interest

Comps (All T-30): The Protege w/ 16.48% Awareness & 5.54, Last Night in Soho w/ 22.04% & 4.72, The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent w/ 17.58% & 5.16, The Woman King w/ 19.76% & 4.84

 

T-30 General Awareness: 35% chance of double digits

General Interest: 72% chance of double-digits

Original - Low Awareness: 36% chance of 5M, 18% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 67% chance of 5M, 33% chance of 10M

 

Avatar: The Way of Water T-64: 65.87% Awareness, 6.41 Interest

Comps (All T-60): F9 w/ 49.77% Awareness & 5.78 Interest, Top Gun: Maverick w/ 50.6% & 5.82, Jurassic World: Dominion w/ 64.73% & 7.06

 

T-60 General Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

General Interest: 100% chance of 50M, 83% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 100M

[Eric is Quiet]

23 hours ago, Eric Strode said:

Black Adam Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	89	1032	18518	5.57%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 108

 

Comp

0.978x of F9 T-7 (6.94M)

0.390x of Black Widow T-7 (5.15M)

2.487x of The Suicide Squad T-7 (10.19M)

0.670x of Shang-Chi T-7 (5.9M)

0.994x of Venom 2 T-7 (11.53M)

0.977x of No Time to Die T-7 (6.16M0

0.492x of Eternals T-7 (4.68M)

1.157x of Morbius T-7 (6.59M)

1.159x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-7 (6.96M)

0.461x of Jurassic World 3 T-7 (8.3M)

Black Adam Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	89	1122	18518	6.06%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 90

 

Comp

0.983x of F9 T-6 (6.98M)

0.391x of Black Widow T-6 (5.17M)

2.434x of The Suicide Squad T-6 (9.98M)

0.671x of Shang-Chi T-6 (5.9M)

1.004x of Venom 2 T-6 (11.65M)

0.985x of No Time to Die T-6 (6.21M)

0.514x of Eternals T-6 (4.88M)

1.172x of Morbius T-6 (6.68M)

1.160x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-6 (6.96M)

0.478x of Jurassic World 3 T-6 (8.61M)

[Eric is Quiet]

23 hours ago, Eric Strode said:

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-28 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	246	5111	42932	11.90%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 93

 

Comp

0.742x of Doctor Strange 2 T-28 (26.7M)

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-27 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	246	5225	42932	12.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 114

 

Comp

0.716x of Doctor Strange 2 T-27 (25.77M)