The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[ZackM]

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	8	17	59	39	111
Seats Added	584	1,388	6,892	2,844	11,934
Seats Sold	14,436	10,642	10,457	8,960	9,058
11/6/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	439	7,841	265,511	1,199,102	22.14%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	46	227	547	967
ATP
$16.64
Black Panther Double Feature Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days
11/6/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	92	97	8,582	22,354	38.39%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	6	11	25	36
ATP
$17.54

 

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Dr. Strange MoM
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4	$27.7	$27.5	$23.5	$23.8
T-5	$27.3	$27.1	$23.4	$23.7
T-6	$27.0	$26.9	$23.1	$23.4
T-7	$26.9	$26.8	$22.8	$23.2
T-8	$26.8	$26.7	$22.7	$23.1
T-9	$26.6	$26.4	$22.5	$22.9
T-10	$26.4	$26.3	$22.5	$22.9
T-11	$26.4	$26.3	$22.3	$22.7
T-12	$26.6	$26.5	$22.2	$22.7
T-13	$26.7	$26.6	$22.0	$22.5
T-14	$26.9	$26.8	$21.7	$22.2
T-15	$26.7	$26.6	$21.3	$21.8
T-16	$26.8	$26.7	$21.2	$21.7
T-17	$26.9	$26.8	$21.2	$21.6
T-18	$27.2	$27.1	$21.4	$21.8

Edited November 7, 2022 by ZackM

[charlie Jatinder]

11 hours ago, Eric Carey said:

The Far From Home erasure smh

FAR FROM HOME WAS A MIDWEEK RELEASE. GODDAMMIT ERIC.

Edited November 7, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

On 11/6/2022 at 1:53 AM, Porthos said:

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	2	307	28444	37960	9516	25.07%

 

Total Showings Removed Today	1
Total Seats Removed Today	167
Total Seats Sold Today	412

 

T-5 Comp

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	70.44		446	13509		0/353	29171/42680	31.65%		21117	45.06%		25.36m
L&T	106.10		302	8969		0/251	24732/33701	26.61%		16962	56.10%		30.77m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Panther 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     2335/12453  [18.75% sold]
Matinee:      486/4151  [11.71% | 5.11% of all tickets sold]

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	2	308	27930	38064	10134	26.62%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	104
Total Seats Sold Today	618

 

T-4 Comp

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	70.61		844	14353		0/353	28327/42680	33.63%		21117	47.99%		25.42m
L&T	106.02		590	9559		0/251	24142/33701	28.36%		16962	59.75%		30.74m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Panther 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     2515/12390  [20.30% sold]
Matinee:     551/4316  [12.77% | 5.44% of all tickets sold]

[Joyous Legion]

Kind of remarkable how the comps have been like 25, 30.5 forever in Sacto… while we know they *must* converge to almost the exact same value in the end.

[M37]

On 11/4/2022 at 9:45 AM, M37 said:

Funny you should ask, as I was just about to post this...

 

Here is the aggregated data from some of the trackers, showing roughly $27M as the current projected Thursday.  There is a split between the Strange MoM and Thor L&T comps - and some significant outliers - with the former suggesting ~$25M, and the latter about ~$31M (and of course the Sacto data from @Porthos is right on those averages). There is good reason, for both demographics and the Friday Vet Day holiday, to expect BPWF to trend towards the higher end of the range, with more late sales/walk-up friendly, and even potentially exceed $30M for Thursday.

 

 

A fair amount more uncertainty than usual MCU tracking here, both in the Thursday number and the multiplier from that value, but at this moment I'd put the range at decently wide $160-$200M (though others may see it higher), with hopefully some clarity on the trajectory coming in the new few days

 

After the final weekend of pre-sales, honestly not much more clarity on the expected Thursday:

 

 

The tl;dr: If BPWF sales pace from this point like Strange MoM, looking at ~$25M in previews, and if it tracks closer to Thor L&T, then ~$32M. Sales are pacing slightly ahead of both comps across all samples, but Thor's pattern was a July 4th holiday influenced anomaly, and MoM had a relatively weaker final few days. Most likely, it falls somewhere in between, with the overall average hovering around ~$28M, which seems a reasonable estimate at this point (but also wouldn't be shocking to see a strong late kick, climbing up to - if not over - $30M)

 

Bit of a choose your own adventure at this point, with the potentially complicating factor of Tuesday review drop also being Election Day, which may distort daily sales & direct comparisons, so may continue to have a wide range/higher uncertainty until Wednesday or even Thursday

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 11/3/2022 at 11:27 AM, Menor Reborn said:

Wakanda Forever Marcus Theaters T-8:

 

Thursday:

Showtimes: 901 (+4)

Seats Sold: 21800/128082 (+1063)

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 1485 (some showtimes threw errors)

Seats Sold: 22237/210832 (+1395)

 

I forgot to post yesterday's numbers, so these are still a 24-hour pace. No Thor comps today. The next Thor comps I'll have are T-4 where Thor had 30507 for Thursday and 20700 for Friday. Based on today's pace I'm estimating that those comps will be at around 25.3 million for Thursday and 56.6 million for Friday by then, but we'll see how things go. Currently the Thursday pace is ~par what I got for Thor on its last day and the Friday pace is more than 40% higher. 

I took T-7 as well but forgot to post that, so will report both the 4-day and 3-day pace in this post. 

 

Wakanda Forever Marcus Theaters T-4:

 

Thursday:

Showtimes: 922 (+20 in 4 days/+10 in 3 days)

Seats Sold: 26812/130209 (+5012 in 4 days/+3901 in 3 days)

0.879x Thor 4 (25.5 million)

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 1505 (+20 in 4 days/+18 in 3 days)

Seats Sold: 31291/212967 (+9054 in 4 days/+7357 in 3 days)

1.512x Thor 4 (61.24 million)

 

Thursday pace is around where I thought. Friday pace is excellent. For comparison Thor at T-4 had added just 5940 in the past 6 days!! By my estimation WF's pace is currently more than double. 

Edited November 7, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Spoiler Alert: T-39: 10.16% Awareness, 4.52 Interest

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish T-44: 52.57%, 5.95

A Man Called Otto T-67: 22.12%, 5.26

Knock at the Cabin T-88: 17.39%, 5.65

Heart of a Lion T-144: 13.91%, 5.37

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever T-4: 65% Awareness, 6.94 Interest

*Note that Black Panther: Wakanda Forever's Final numbers are subject to change*

 

Final General Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

General Interest: 100% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 100M

 

She Said T-11: 19.86% Awareness, 4.8 Interest

*Note that She Said's Final numbers are subject to change*

 

Final General Awareness: 4% chance of double-digit opening

General Interest: 23% chance of double-digit opening

Original - Low Awareness: 10% chance of 5M, 0% chance of double digits

Original - Low Interest: 20% chance of 5M, 0% chance of double digits

 

Avatar: The Way of Water T-39: 65.65% Awareness, 6.59 Interest

 

T-30 General Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

General Interest: 100% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 100M

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 11/3/2022 at 10:19 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Panther 2	T-7	Jax	6	140	13	2,443	19,242	12.70%
		Phx	7	140	145	2,072	19,608	10.57%
		Ral	8	135	216	3,348	15,826	21.16%
ATP: 14.46	Total		21	415	374	7,863	54,676	14.38%
BP2 DF	T-7	Jax	2	4	1	148	355	41.69%
	Total		2	4	1	148	355	41.69%
Glass Onion	T-20	Jax	4	16	23	79	1,847	4.28%
		Phx	2	8	3	61	736	8.29%
		Ral	2	11	8	110	896	12.28%
ATP: 11.06	Total		8	35	34	250	3,479	7.19%

 

Black Panther T-7 comps

 - Black Widow - 2.78x (36.64m)

 - Thor 4 - 1.13x (32.65m)

 - DS2 - .66x (23.63m)

 - NWH - .38x (19.01m)

 - Batman - 1.98x (34.93m)

 

Glass Onion T-20 comps (Opening day vs previews)

 - Downton Abbey + EA - 1.07x (1.92m)

 - Dragon Ball - .576x (2.48m)

 - JW3 + DF - .118x (2.12m)

 - F9 - .735x (5.22m)

 - Top Gun 2 + EA - .147x (2.83m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Panther 2	T-3	Jax	6	140	834	3,277	19,242	17.03%
		Phx	7	140	771	2,843	19,608	14.50%
		Ral	8	137	900	4,248	16,020	26.52%
	Total		21	417	2,505	10,368	54,870	18.90%
BP2 DF	T-3	Jax	2	4	10	158	355	44.51%
	Total		2	4	10	158	355	44.51%
Glass Onion	T-16	Jax	4	16	5**	84	1,847	4.55%
		Phx	2	8	11	72	736	9.78%
		Ral	2	11	22	132	896	14.73%
	Total		8	35	38	288	3,479	8.28%

*All new sales since Thursday morning

**Including18 lost tickets in one show - could have been an error on Thursday

 

Black Panther T-3 comps

 - Black Widow - 2.895x (38.22m)

 - Thor 4 - 1.176x (34.1m)

 - DS2 - .68x (23.53m)

 - NWH - .43x (21.65m)

 - Batman - 1.945x (34.23m)

 

Glass Onion T-16 comps (Opening day vs previews)

 - NTTD + EA - .72x (4.54m)

 - F9 - .571x (4.06m)

 - Ghostbusters + EA - 1.24x (5.56m)

 - Top Gun 2 + EA - .125x (2.41m)

[keysersoze123]

@katnisscinnaplex can you look at show counts for Wakanda this week. I think you can wait until tomorrow when most plexes will finalize their screen count. 

 

Anyway Wakanda Forever MTC Previews(T-4) - 167178/803737 2417219.40 5709 shows +10898

 

Good day. 

[Porthos]

7 hours ago, Legion By Night said:

Kind of remarkable how the comps have been like 25, 30.5 forever in Sacto… while we know they *must* converge to almost the exact same value in the end.

 

The thing to remember is that 1] the L&T tickets will get kneecapped today (T-3) thanks to 4th of July shenanigans, but then 2] over-perform relative to reviews on Tu/Wed/Thr thanks to folks catching up.

 

So it'll be interesting to see just how much the (presumed) better reviews matter in regards to the L&T comp given that L&T will be getting an artificial boost on T/W/Th.

[keysersoze123]

Just saw Glass Onion trailer and it looks fantastic. Still cannot get over thinking about what could have happened if there were not a netflix movie :-(

[LonePirate]

The Regal nearest to me has tonight’s mystery movie playing in the largest auditorium displacing Black Adam. Was there a consensus on what it is?

[M37]

21 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

The Regal nearest to me has tonight’s mystery movie playing in the largest auditorium displacing Black Adam. Was there a consensus on what it is?

 

 

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

@katnisscinnaplex can you look at show counts for Wakanda this week. I think you can wait until tomorrow when most plexes will finalize their screen count. 

 

Anyway Wakanda Forever MTC Previews(T-4) - 167178/803737 2417219.40 5709 shows +10898

 

Good day. 

I'll take a look in the morning.  Assuming you'd like the MTC breakdown for previews and full weekend?  Anything additional? It'll take about an hour to pull all of the shows and build a report out so it'll help to know what all I'm looking for.

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

I'll take a look in the morning.  Assuming you'd like the MTC breakdown for previews and full weekend?  Anything additional? It'll take about an hour to pull all of the shows and build a report out so it'll help to know what all I'm looking for.

If possible Previews separate and rest of the weekend. day by day should not matter that much. But any data would be appreciated. 

[misterpepp]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

 

 

 

Found out “Chili” was the codename used in production for Spirited, so up my original 99.9% certainty to 99.99999%

[el sid]

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, counted today at 11am EST for Thursday, November 10:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 819 (12 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 1.172 (38 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 239 (12 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 131 (7 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 406 (16 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 1.587 (23 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 2.411 (36 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 6.765.

Up modest 17% since last Wednesday.

Comps (both counted on Monday for Thursday): TSS (4.1M from previews) had 1.385 sold tickets = x4.85 = 20M and no HBO Max which should be good for at least another 5M+ = 25+M,

and SC (8.8M) had 2.561 sold tickets = x2.64 = 23.2M.
And Thor 4 (29M) had on Tuesday of the release week 7.843 sold tickets = 86.25% at the moment for Wakanda Forever = 25M with 1 day left = so ca. 27M would be my guess.

Still very acceptable overall but I really hope that the jumps become better in the next few days. And of course I should also count its Friday presales at least once.

 

Edited November 7, 2022 by el sid

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 11/2/2022 at 12:28 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-8	Black Panther 2	PLF	32		3,047	7,298	41.75%	$15.40	$46,934.23
		Standard	69		2,077	8,470	24.52%	$11.25	$23,370.83
	Total		101		5,124	15,768	32.50%	$13.72	$70,305.06
	Black Panther 2 DF	Standard	2		61	317	19.24%	$23.82	$1,453.02
	Total		2		61	317	19.24%	$23.82	$1,453.02
T-9	Black Panther 2 (Fri)	PLF	67		2,754	13,617	20.22%	$15.38	$42,364.06
		Standard	82		1,169	10,884	10.74%	$10.78	$12,596.35
	Total		149		3,923	24,501	16.01%	$14.01	$54,960.41

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-8	Black Panther 2	N	75		4,525	11,738	38.55%	$14.10	$63,785.93
		Y	26		599	4,030	14.86%	$10.88	$6,519.13
	Total		101		5,124	15,768	32.50%	$13.72	$70,305.06
T-9	Black Panther 2 (Fri)	N	72		3,028	12,348	24.52%	$14.90	$45,126.61
		Y	77		895	12,153	7.36%	$10.99	$9,833.80
	Total		149		3,923	24,501	16.01%	$14.01	$54,960.41

 

BP2 Thu T-8 comps

 - NWH - .333x (16.66m)

 - DS2 - .484x (17.44m)

 - Thor 4 - .826x (23.94m)

 

BP2 Fri T-9 comps

 - NWH - .311x (22.36m)

 - DS2 - .531x (29.03m)

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	Black Panther 2	PLF	32	562	3,609	7,298	49.45%	$15.30	$55,222.16
		Standard	93	1,128	3,205	10,850	29.54%	$11.51	$36,886.29
	Total		125	1,690	6,814	18,148	37.55%	$13.52	$92,108.45
	Black Panther 2 DF	Standard	2	25	86	317	27.13%	$23.82	$2,048.52
	Total		2	25	86	317	27.13%	$23.82	$2,048.52
T-4	Black Panther 2 (Fri)	PLF	67	1,350	4,104	13,617	30.14%	$15.22	$62,451.78
		Standard	84	1,009	2,178	10,984	19.83%	$10.97	$23,901.55
	Total		151	2,359	6,282	24,601	25.54%	$13.75	$86,353.33

*New sales since Wednesday

 

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	Black Panther 2	N	95	1,418	5,943	13,669	43.48%	$13.92	$82,749.12
		Y	30	272	871	4,479	19.45%	$10.75	$9,359.33
	Total		125	1,690	6,814	18,148	37.55%	$13.52	$92,108.45
T-4	Black Panther 2 (Fri)	N	74	1,641	4,669	12,448	37.51%	$14.68	$68,550.50
		Y	77	718	1,613	12,153	13.27%	$11.04	$17,802.83
	Total		151	2,359	6,282	24,601	25.54%	$13.75	$86,353.33

*New sales since Wednesday

 

BP2 Thu T-3 comps

 - NWH - .398x (19.9m)

 - DS2 - .54x (19.46m)

 - Thor 4 - .9x (26.1m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.347x (29.09m)

 

BP2 Fri T-4 comps

 - NWH - .441x (31.72m)

 - DS2 - .642x (35.11m)

 - Thor 4 - Missed

 - Batman - 1.352x (47.33m)

 

A bit disappointing in Santikos so far.  Hoping things pick up in the next couple of days!  Friday is at 92.2% of Thursday; at the same point, NWH Friday was at 83.2% and DS2 was at 77.6%. Batman was nearly the same at 91.9% of Thursday at this point in time.

[M37]

16 minutes ago, datpepper said:

Found out “Chili” was the codename used in production for Spirited, so up my original 99.9% certainty to 99.99999%

Oh, you can drop the decimal, it’s 100% 🤐

[ringedmortality]

21 minutes ago, datpepper said:

Found out “Chili” was the codename used in production for Spirited, so up my original 99.9% certainty to 99.99999%

 

I’m kind of looking forward to watching this, and I knew it would be Spirited as soon as it was announced. But, at some point, if they’re gonna keep doing mystery movies, they’re gonna have to show something other than Apple movies.