The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Joyous Legion]

Sales look over 20 easy, maybe 25 even. Then you're at like 130-160. That does seem too high though so just applying some warranted general caution is how you get down to 110-120

[BadOlCatSylvester]

1 hour ago, Eric is Missing said:

No joke, Disney could put out a movie that's nothing but a jar of mayonaisse in a fridge for two hours, and so long as they put the Marvel Studios logo on the poster, Marvel nerds will watch it like robots. It's almost kind of scary.

I'd argue the Marvel logo even benefited the ones not made by the main Marvel studio. Case in point, Morbius somehow opening to $40M despite an utter lack of hype. If it was an original action movie it would've barely squeaked past $10M in its opening weekend. Venom also rode the Infinity War afterglow all the way to $850M worldwide.

 

Of course, after Phase 4 the brand is showing signs of decay. If Phase 5 is also polarizing then I can see franchise fatigue hitting Marvel, which would have dire consequences for exhibition.

[Factcheck]

32 minutes ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Sales look over 20 easy, maybe 25 even. Then you're at like 130-160. That does seem too high though so just applying some warranted general caution is how you get down to 110-120

20×5.2= 104M(Mom multiplier)

25×6.5=162(WF multiplier)

Edited January 17, 2023 by Factcheck

[Joyous Legion]

10 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

20×5.2= 104M(Mom multiplier)

25×6.5=162(WF multiplier)

When I expected mid high teens was thinking 6.5x but if we do hit low mid 20 that suggests more fan appeal after all, would probably go down to 5.5-6

[Porthos]

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-31 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	231	30346	32365	2019	6.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

2019

 

Day 1 Comps

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	29.92		6749	6749		0/329	34167/40916	16.49%		21117	9.56%		10.77m
TG:M	133.18		1516	1516		0/256	34603/36119	4.20%		11474	17.60%		26.32m
L&T	48.52		4161	4161		0/228	27442/31603	13.17%		16962	11.90%		14.07m
BP2	62.05		3254	3254		0/279	31690/34980	9.30%		16800	12.02%		17.37m
A2	152.95		1320	1320		0/138	19300/20620	6.40%		8986	22.47%		26.00m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       382/12953  [2.95% sold]
Matinee:        41/1800  [2.28% | 2.03% of all tickets sold]
3D:              149/6479  [2.30% | 7.38% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Comps are all over the place, as might be expected for, basically, 1/2 - 2/3rds of a day sales compared to other films.  Ironically enough, TGM and A2 are nearly pointing to an identical (and likely unrealistic) number.  As more Phase 4/5 films roll in, really is becoming apparent how useless the MoM comp is compared to the films that came after it.  But still including it for reasons.

 

Prob too early for me to really give many thoughts owing to the disparity in pre-sale windows and day one sales.  But seems strong enough of a start.  20m+ strong?  Above my pay grade to figure out. Have more of a handle on it in a few days, perhaps.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Prob too early for me to really give many thoughts owing to the disparity in pre-sale windows and day one sales.  But seems strong enough of a start.  20m+ strong?  Above my pay grade to figure out. Have more of a handle on it in a few days, perhaps.

 

Just for @Favorite Fearless Legion

 

GEOMEAN [of A2 and BP2]: 21.25m

 

ihavespoken.gif ???

[thajdikt]

The Marvel fans are ruthless but I´m still abit concerned if that high interest in the fandom can translate into the GA. Still thinking over 100M 4-day not 3-day.

[Joyous Legion]

22 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Just for @Favorite Fearless Legion

 

GEOMEAN [of A2 and BP2]: 21.25m

 

ihavespoken.gif ???

This would be accurate for same numbers of hours each so real value even higher 😌

[Factcheck]

56 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-31 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	231	30346	32365	2019	6.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

2019

 

Day 1 Comps

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	29.92		6749	6749		0/329	34167/40916	16.49%		21117	9.56%		10.77m
TG:M	133.18		1516	1516		0/256	34603/36119	4.20%		11474	17.60%		26.32m
L&T	48.52		4161	4161		0/228	27442/31603	13.17%		16962	11.90%		14.07m
BP2	62.05		3254	3254		0/279	31690/34980	9.30%		16800	12.02%		17.37m
A2	152.95		1320	1320		0/138	19300/20620	6.40%		8986	22.47%		26.00m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       382/12953  [2.95% sold]
Matinee:        41/1800  [2.28% | 2.03% of all tickets sold]
3D:              149/6479  [2.30% | 7.38% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

  As more Phase 4/5 films roll in, really is becoming apparent how useless the MoM comp is compared to the films that came after it.  But still including it for reasons.

This "leading into something big" was the main catalyst of such high presales of MoM, so what is the possibility that Ant-Man 3 presales are behaving like MoM on a smaller scale as its main catalyst is the same?

[Porthos]

32 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

This "leading into something big" was the main catalyst of such high presales of MoM, so what is the possibility that Ant-Man 3 presales are behaving like MoM on a smaller scale as its main catalyst is the same?

 

I mean, I "IN'ed" for @XXR the Conqueror's club for a reason.

(when, I might add, nearly everybody else was OUTing)

 

The one thing, really the only thing, I would caution here is that I wouldn't add as much of an arbitrary percentage to the comp due to the difference in pre-sale length on Day 1 as one might think at first glance.  While it is undoubtedly true that it is a factor, I do think sales were long enough today locally (and more importantly in prime buying hours) that it perhaps isn't as large factor as it might seem.  Instead of losing 50% or 33% of Day 1 sales, maybe 20%? Maybe settle on 25% as an add-hoc/ass-pull guess?  

 

Which isn't nothing, but I say it as a customary (and very on brand) note of caution.  If in Sacramento we shut down by 10pm that was still 5 hours of time for people to grab tickets.  Not entirely sure it is that different from folks grabbing tickets from 10am to 6pm locally.  Or rather, it is a  difference, but not eight to twelve hours worth of difference.  Maybe more two to four hours of meaningful sales.  

 

Gonna be curious to see just how inflated Day 2 sales are to other Marvel flicks.  Prob have a much better handle on all of this by Day 3.

Edited January 17, 2023 by Porthos

[Joyous Legion]

Yeah the evening start is annoying but it’ll settle down in a few days.   
 

I think most people are assuming the diff is small — after all the biggest sale spurt is in the first few hours, so on the east coast it might be somewhat impaired but for mountain/pacific the most important part happened basically unimpeded.   
 

But like, if you adjust by 20% then 21.25 goes to 25.5, so…

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, Eric is Missing said:

No joke, Disney could put out a movie that's nothing but a jar of mayonaisse in a fridge for two hours, and so long as they put the Marvel Studios logo on the poster, Marvel nerds will watch it like robots. It's almost kind of scary.

this is what stardom looks like. PAPA Feige is the biggest Super Star of Hollywood.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

this is what stardom looks like. PAPA Feige is the biggest Super Star of Hollywood.

If they don't start getting some more crowdpleasers in there, he might not be anymore. Bayformers was also a super star... until it wasn't.

[M37]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

As more Phase 4/5 films roll in, really is becoming apparent how useless the MoM comp is compared to the films that came after it.  But still including it for reasons.

When did those tickets go on sale? 

 

Fwiw, the weirdness was throughout the sales run, often having strong weekdays then lagging on weekend, which is unusual for this type of release. Almost like it was playing more YA, or having a larger female pre-sale audience, perhaps from WandaVision success/lead-in 

[GOGODanca]

Wouldn't the best comp for ant-man 2 be thor 4 and bp2? Sequels that aren't marketed or hyped up as super event films like ds2 or nwh and we know the fan rush for any mcu movie will be higher than any other franchise outside of star wars, so the tgm, avatar, even jurassic world don't seem to be good indicators atleast this far out?

[Joyous Legion]

22 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

Wouldn't the best comp for ant-man 2 be thor 4 and bp2? Sequels that aren't marketed or hyped up as super event films like ds2 or nwh and we know the fan rush for any mcu movie will be higher than any other franchise outside of star wars, so the tgm, avatar, even jurassic world don't seem to be good indicators atleast this far out?

Size of d1 often plays a huge role in terms of final/D1 ratio, even in excess of genre/demo/sequel considerations -- those things are important too of course, but they play into size of d1 itself so they don't have *that* powerful an affect once you condition on that. Reception can, but it’s unknown in advance.

 

Thor start basically is too big. BP2 is probably single best comp if I had to pick one at gunpoint, especially now that AM&tw2 start looks like it may be 70% if bp2 rather than say 40%, but if you're coming to one movie which it's doing ~70% of it's often useful to have another which it's doing like 1/.7=140% of to balance out, as long as it's pattern from d1 wasn't too dissimilar from reasonable genre/franchise dynamics. In this case that is avatar 2, which had a very CBM typical final th/D1 Th for it's D1 Th size despite legging much better after.

Edited January 17, 2023 by Favorite Fearless Legion

[M37]

34 minutes ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Size of d1 often plays a huge role in terms of final/D1 ratio, even in excess of genre/demo/sequel considerations -- those things are important too of course, but they play into size of d1 itself so they don't have *that* powerful an affect once you condition on that. Reception can, but it’s unknown in advance.

 

Thor start basically is too big. BP2 is probably single best comp if I had to pick one at gunpoint, especially now that AM&tw2 start looks like it may be 70% if bp2 rather than say 40%, but if you're coming to one movie which it's doing ~70% of it's often useful to have another which it's doing like 1/.7=140% of to balance out, as long as it's pattern from d1 wasn't too dissimilar from reasonable genre/franchise dynamics. In this case that is avatar 2, which had a very CBM typical final th/D1 Th for it's D1 Th size despite legging much better after.

The only somewhat close comp below the expected value is Venom 2 ... but lol, no, we don't use that one for anything. My general thoughts on comps:

• 1. BPWF - think it may track this one pretty closely, though perhaps a bit too low to start/early period
• 2. A2 - going to be too high to start, then fall back, but AMWQ should outpace in the final week, plus PLF/3D skew/limited capacity may throw it off
• 3. MoM - Won't track the same, so numbers will be too low and bounce around, but converge in final week
• 4. Thor 4 - might be fine-ish until the final week, but the July 4th effect will skew the relative trajectories
• 5. Batman - had a soft start/strong finish, so early numbers will be too low. Also not MCU, plus had EA, and atypical market distribution can all skew comps

Not really going to pay much attention to comp values until T-21 (or even T-17), see how they stack up at that checkpoint, but early tea leaf reading on sales has me in ~$20M range or so. With that said, this first day may be influenced by the NFL audience/announcement, catching more of the M 18-35 early buyers right from the jump rather than over a few days, and may come down a bit over the first full week

[Joyous Legion]

BP was ~2x the start of A2 (with regional/chain variation naturally). So if we luck in to QM starting at perfect √2 between them — so that QM 24hr=√2 A2 24hr and BP2 24h=√2 QM 24h — then I am basically on geomean set and forget between those two until something t-10 or whatever when maybe reactions will be available and something interesting may have happened in one direction or another.

Edited January 17, 2023 by Favorite Fearless Legion

[thajdikt]

4 minutes ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

BP was ~2x the start of A2 (with regional/chain variation naturally). So if we luck in to QM starting at perfect √2 between them — so that QM 24hr=√2 A2 24hr and BP2 24h=√2 QM 24h — then I am basically on geomean set and forget between those two until something t-10 or whatever when maybe reactions will be available and something interesting may have happened in one direction or another.

The world carpet premiere was said to be 13th February a couple of months ago. Have tried to find a update on that but nothing. If true then reactions will be very late compared Wakanda Forever and Thor.

[Inceptionzq]

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

334

2587

12.91%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

252

3106

8.11%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1372	N/A	32222	4.26%	15	187

 

AMCs sold	1020
Cinemarks sold	167
Regals sold	88
Harkins sold	97

 

1.38x Avatar TWOW 13.5 hours (23.44M)

0.780x Black Panther WF 11.5 hours (21.84M)

0.444x Thor L&T 24 hours (12.87M)

0.318x Doctor Strange MoM 11.5 hours (11.44M)

0.704x Batman 24 hours (15.21M)