The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[excel1]

2 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

 

It hasn't been announced and I mentioned it on here previously, but it is moving.  

 

Josh Hartnett has to be the all-time king of "delayed" wide-release movies.

[excel1]

Strong walk-ups for Uncharted reinforce the notion that THE BATMAN is looking at $25/30m+ for total previews. NWH is clearly an all-time presales GOAT. BATMAN comping at 2-3x Black Widow and Eternal is no doubt much more indicative of where it is heading. 

[BruiseCruise]

Pattinson, Chalamet and Holland will be duking it out as the leading man of hollywood for the forseeable future

[snarkmachine]

3 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

Pattinson, Chalamet and Holland will be duking it out as the leading man of hollywood for the forseeable future

 

????

 

Pattinson is ten years older than the other two. They’re not going out for the same roles.

Edited February 19, 2022 by snarkmachine

[DAJK]

10 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Strong walk-ups for Uncharted reinforce the notion that THE BATMAN is looking at $25/30m+ for total previews. NWH is clearly an all-time presales GOAT. BATMAN comping at 2-3x Black Widow and Eternal is no doubt much more indicative of where it is heading. 

Not sure how Uncharted means anything for Batman’s walk-ups/lack thereof but ok

[BruiseCruise]

Just now, snarkmachine said:

 

????

 

Pattinson is ten years older than the other two. They’re not going out for the same roles.

I'm talking about as the biggest star/actor in the world not competing for the same exact roles, like people might debate who is the bigger movie star :cruise or dicaprio? something like that

[excel1]

19 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

Pattinson, Chalamet and Holland will be duking it out as the leading man of hollywood for the forseeable future

 

I would Pattinson ahead of the other 2 at the moment as he is the only one of them who has transitioned to actual adult roles successful ala Leo. Holland and Chalamet are just the latest in a long, long line of actors who became very famous playing teenage/VERY young adult characters. It is not easy to transition to adult roles and get taken seriously.

 

For every DiCaprio or Reese Witherspoon (or seemingly now, Robert Pattinson) there are many more people like Zac Efron, Josh Hartnett, Kirsten Dunst, Michael J. Fox, Shia LaBuff, Paul Walker (sans F&F), Ryan Phillippe, Chris O'Donnell, Tobey McGuire (sans Spider-man), any of there young Harry Potter or Star Wars actors, dozens of tv actors and actresses... 

 

Look at Jennifer Lawrence. She was the 2010's version of Josh Hartnett - someone who the media put EVERYWHERE in a very short time frame and saw their offers and pay just explode rapidly due to the level of fame. How did audiences react when she tried to tackle older characters? Not well at all and she had a string of high-profile flops and now her pull with audiences is basically non-existent sans a star-studded Netflix film. She is, of course, one role away from getting all of the fame back, but there is not some hidden huge JLaw fanbase there was for a brief moment years ago.

 

I don't think today's crowd appreciates jut how challenging the transition from "young" actor to "full fledged star". It is extremely difficult to get audiences to take you seriously as an adult when they only know the actor as a child. DiCaprio basically left Hollywood for 5 years after TITANIC, which helped audiences see him as a more mature actor when he returned. Others like Efron, Hartnett, Fox etc just weren't taken seriously when they tried to jump from playing 20-22 year old characters to people in their 30s. 

 

In 2027, Holland or Chalamet being less-than-bankable big names would be far less surprising than many people realize.

Edited February 19, 2022 by excel1

[Porthos]

20 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Not sure how Uncharted means anything for Batman’s walk-ups/lack thereof but ok

 

I was actually thinking something like this last night.  In the category of "peeps are so starved for a Fun Time At the Movies" that they'll even go to something dodgy like Uncharted in higher than expected numbers.

 

(all relative to the current landscape)

 

More succinctly, if something like Uncharted  (especially at its level of reviews) can have a relative breakout (emphasis on relative — esp since we don't even have Sat numbers yet), what does that portend for The Batman?

 

[Eric Prime]

Moderation

 

Not the “Which Male Star is More Bankable” thread. Stay on topic

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I was actually thinking something like this last night.  In the category of "peeps are so starved for a Fun Time At the Movies" that they'll even go to something dodgy like Uncharted in higher than expected numbers.

 

(all relative to the current landscape)

 

More succinctly, if something like Uncharted  (especially at its level of reviews) can have a relative breakout (emphasis on relative — esp since we don't even have Sat numbers yet), what does that portend for The Batman?

 

I'm not sure it tells us anything quantifiable. It's a different kind of film with a different appeal.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I'm not sure it tells us anything quantifiable. It's a different kind of film with a different appeal.

 

I think the first "major" film since NWH doing better than expected tells us something about how The Batman might do, especially since it should appeal to broadly similar demos.

 

To keep this vaguely on topic, I would think Uncharted's success (barring a Sat collapse) might give credence to looking at the higher end of our collective tracking.  At the very least, it's a sign of the current collective health of movies as omicron winds down.

 

It's not like we're gonna get a better data point between now and The Batman's premiere/embargo release dates.

[excel1]

24 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I was actually thinking something like this last night.  In the category of "peeps are so starved for a Fun Time At the Movies" that they'll even go to something dodgy like Uncharted in higher than expected numbers.

 

(all relative to the current landscape)

 

More succinctly, if something like Uncharted  (especially at its level of reviews) can have a relative breakout (emphasis on relative — esp since we don't even have Sat numbers yet), what does that portend for The Batman?

 

 

The market is dead. 100% dead. The conditions could not be more ripe for an epic break out. 

 

[filmlover]

I said this in the other thread but the breakouts of this weekend might be a sign of what's to come for the rest of the year. $20M+ for The Lost City and $40M+ for Morbius definitely feel like possibilities right now given how starved for new content the marketplace will be by the time they come out.

[DAJK]

I still think 120M or so WOULD be a huge breakout for Batman.

[excel1]

Just now, DAJK said:

I still think 120M or so WOULD be a huge breakout for Batman.

 

How? R-rated action less emo drama Joker did $96m 2 1/2 years ago.

[titanic2187]

Any number that come higher than 108m (dune total) will put a smile face on me for batman since that is an instant mockery to WB for their stupid hbo max deal. 

[21C]

Gonna keep beating the 160-178 million OW drum for The Batman.

[DAJK]

2 hours ago, excel1 said:

 

How? R-rated action less emo drama Joker did $96m 2 1/2 years ago.

Okay I’m not even the biggest Joker fan but... that seems a LITTLE reductive in terms of why that movie was such a big hit  

[21C]

16 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Okay I’m not even the biggest Joker fan but... that seems a LITTLE reductive in terms of why that movie was such a big hit  

For all intent and purposes I think it seems The Batman will be received similarly to how Joker and TDK were.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

I think the first "major" film since NWH doing better than expected tells us something about how The Batman might do, especially since it should appeal to broadly similar demos.

 

To keep this vaguely on topic, I would think Uncharted's success (barring a Sat collapse) might give credence to looking at the higher end of our collective tracking.  At the very least, it's a sign of the current collective health of movies as omicron winds down.

 

It's not like we're gonna get a better data point between now and The Batman's premiere/embargo release dates.

I think this is true. Uncharted's breakout reminds me of Free Guy a bit. Takes advantage of an underwhelming marketplace and exploits the most active moviegoing demo, proving there's still a demand for theaters and building a path for Shang-Chi. In this case, The Batman

 

Also, Dog's performance is some indication of adults slowly returning