The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Issac Newton]

How does Jujutsu Kaisen Movie 0 look on your local screen?

 

Edit: Grammatical Error

Edited February 27, 2022 by Issac Newton

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Acceleration?

 

No.

 

Bump and then a possibly higher (or lower if they are bad) baseline?  Well depends on when they are released, but sure absolutely. 

 

The problem, as mentioned in one of the replies to you, will be trying to disentangle any boost from reviews from a ramp up of last days sales as an acceleration already usually happens from Sun-Thur and there won't time to see a fall from a review bump and seeing a new baseline being established.  

 

But here's the thing.  Sun-Thr accelerations are not created equal.  In fact a decent amount of being able to tell if a film is gonna have a really good preview number is the Sun-Thr acceleration (though here genre also heavily applies, so one should look at it relatively).  Can be a decent guide to walkups as well, though more factors at play there.  And having positive (or wildly positive) reviews can absolutely be a factor though by no means is it guaranteed.

 

 

As a supplemental point, it's gonna be even harder in the case of The Batman, as reviews drop on Monday (for some reason I keep thinking they'll be today and that's been coloring some of my more off-the-cuff thoughts), and we'll start getting WOM from Tue showings not 36 hours later.

 

So even if we could figure out how much reviews are helping, seeing how much that would be sustained is next-to-impossible in this case simply because of Tue/Wed showings adding to the mix.

[ZackM]

3 hours ago, ZackM said:

Interesting.  I hadn’t even realized that.  I’ll look into it and see why ATPis so much higher.

Two graphs to explain the higher ATP:

 

 

From this graph we can see that the ATP for available tickets is higher for The Batman than for NWH, but only by about 5%.

 

 

 

The rest of the variation is here, where we see that The Batman is getting significantly more of its sales from high ATP theaters.

 

 

Edited February 27, 2022 by ZackM

[XXR & Friends]

The Batman

 T-4 Previews Tracking - 10 MTC1 Theater Count

 

Showings = 233

Total Tickets Sold = 10,058

PLF Tickets Sold = 8,629

3D Tickets Sold = 0

Regular Tickets Sold = 1,429

 

Comps: N / A

 

Notes: First time doing this count. Count started at 3PM CST, T-4 to Thursday previews. Tues/Weds shows included. Theaters counted listed under the spoiler tag below. 

 

Spoiler

Theaters Counted

AMC Willowbrook 24 (Houston, TX)
AMC Grapevine 30 (Dallas, TX)
AMC Southlake 24 (Atlanta, GA)
AMC Boston Commons 19 (Boston, MA)
AMC Town Square 18 (Las Vegas, NV)
AMC Elmwood Palace 20 (New Orleans, LA)
AMC Barrywoods 24 (Kansas City, MO)
AMC Indianapolis 17 (Indianapolis, IN)

AMC Century City 15 (Los Angeles, CA)
AMC South Barrington 24 (Chicago, IL) 

 

[keysersoze123]

^^^^

 

Cant you instead look at

Spoiler

Regal

instead. We already have full data for MTC1. 

[XXR & Friends]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

^^^^

 

Cant you instead look at

  Hide contents

Regal

instead. We already have full data for MTC1. 

 

Doesn't really matter for a comp like this. I just need a steady set of theaters. I certainly won't look at enough theaters to match what y'all scrap. Frankly though, I just prefer the MTC1 website  

 

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/26/2022 at 4:20 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Batman Denver Preview Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

699

3112

22.46%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

458

3405

13.45%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2799	250	29649	9.44%	14	191

 

AMCs sold	1963
Cinemarks sold	231
Regals sold	394
Harkins sold	211

 

Tuesday:

Total

1077

0

1428

Wednesday:

Total

919

49

1227

Overall:

Grand Total

4795

299

32304

 

0.314x NWH T-5 (15.70M)

2.44x Eternals T-5 (23.22M)

1.81x Black Widow T-5 (23.90M)

 

Solid jump today

The Batman Denver Preview Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

736

3112

23.65%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

477

3405

14.01%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3007	208	29933	10.05%	14	193

 

AMCs sold	2047
Cinemarks sold	274
Regals sold	440
Harkins sold	246

 

Tuesday:

Total

1081

4

1428

Wednesday:

Total

958

39

1227

Overall:

Grand Total

5046

251

32588

 

0.322x NWH T-4 (16.10M)

2.44x Eternals T-4 (23.22M)
1.79x Black Widow T-4 (23.63M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/26/2022 at 4:26 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Batman Megaplex

 

Tuesday(5 showings): 2343(+5)/2741 in 5 theaters

Thursday(110 showings): 3194(+218)/30278in 15 theaters

 

0.261x NWH's T-5 (13.05M)

3.06x Eternals' T-5 (29.07M)

1.73x Black Widow T-5 (22.84M)

 

Friday(145 showings): 3059(+275)/44973 in 15 theaters

0.187x NWH's T-6 (13.45M)

2.08x Eternals' T-6 (44.39M)

1.17x Black Widow T-6 (30.77M)

 

Saturday(152 showings): 1666(+166)/46754 in 15 theaters

0.164x NWH's T-7 (12.12M)

2.15x Eternals' T-7 (51.86M)

 

Sunday(101 showings): 398(+57)/32941 in 15 theaters

0.166x NWH's T-8 (10.65M)

2.38x Eternals' T-8 (38.87M)

The Batman Megaplex

 

Tuesday(5 showings): 2351(+8)/2741 in 5 theaters

Thursday(110 showings): 3446(+252)/30278 in 15 theaters

 

0.266x NWH's T-4 (13.30M)

3.02x Eternals' T-4 (28.69M)

1.69x Black Widow T-4 (22.31M)

 

Friday(145 showings): 3423(+364)/44973 in 15 theaters

0.200x NWH's T-5 (14.39M)

2.16x Eternals' T-5 (46.09M)

1.19x Black Widow T-5 (31.30M)

 

Saturday(152 showings): 1894(+228)/46754 in 15 theaters

0.174x NWH's T-6 (12.86M)

2.21x Eternals' T-6 (53.31M)

 

Sunday(101 showings): 453(+55)/32941 in 15 theaters

0.172x NWH's T-7 (11.04M)

2.50x Eternals' T-7 (40.83M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/26/2022 at 4:32 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Batman Alamo Drafthouse

 

Thursday(226 showings): 12085(+520)/32028 ATP: $14.83

0.441x NWH's T-5 (22.05M)

2.05x Eternals T-5 (19.48M)

 

Friday(329 showings): 12514(+927)/46925 ATP: $14.94

0.489x NWH's T-6 (35.17M)

2.22x Eternals T-6 (47.37M)

 

Saturday(347 showings): 12955(+1404)/50030 ATP: $14.38

0.504x NWH's T-7 (37.25M)

2.30x Eternals T-7 (55.48M)

 

Sunday(320 showings): 6046(+703)/45569 ATP: $14.22

0.422x NWH's T-8 (27.08M)

1.87x Eternals T-8 (30.54M)

The Batman Alamo Drafthouse

 

Thursday(226 showings): 12792(+707)/32028 ATP: $14.82

0.458x NWH's T-4 (22.90M)

2.10x Eternals T-4 (19.95M)

 

Friday(329 showings): 13521(+1007)/46925 ATP: $14.92

0.516x NWH's T-5 (37.12M)

2.27x Eternals T-5 (48.44M)

 

Saturday(347 showings): 14241(+1286)/50030 ATP: $14.33

0.533x NWH's T-6 (39.39M)

2.40x Eternals T-6 (57.89M)

 

Sunday(320 showings): 6919(+873)/45569 ATP: $14.15

0.456x NWH's T-7 (29.27M)

2.01x Eternals T-7 (32.82M)

[Cap]

9 hours ago, filmlover said:

considering this is the third reboot for the character

Totally anecdotal, but my Thursday night movie crew that we do the MCU movies with all said they had no interest in seeing this on Thursday night. They said that they get to it sometime during the weekend or the week. And they’re all the prime demo of the single, male, comic book fan.  And they are not one or the other fans. We do all of them. 
 

For Tracking, I just eye balled my IMAX up here. It’s about 40% full for Thursday 

[Coneilg93]

My IMAX is full for Thursday. 

[Dragoncaine]

17 minutes ago, Coneilg93 said:

My IMAX is full for Thursday. 

My Tuesday IMAX is full and my Friday is about 75-80%.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 hours ago, PenguinXXR said:

 

Doesn't really matter for a comp like this. I just need a steady set of theaters. I certainly won't look at enough theaters to match what y'all scrap. Frankly though, I just prefer the MTC1 website  

 

Doing that chain would help because if you did say 10 representative theaters from them, we could make an extrapolation to the national number. But their website is indeed crappy. 

[charlie Jatinder]

9 hours ago, PenguinXXR said:

 

So, "alpha" ticket prices are 15% higher in only 3 months?

Some places have ticket hikes but that would be trivial. NWH did well in theaters outside big urban markets & regular format while The Batman currently is PLF heavy. Normal thing.

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, PenguinXXR said:

Tracking Announcement

 

Starting with the Batman, I will do tracking for TEN movie theaters going forward! I will be retiring my single theater comp. I feel like this will be a better way to measure scope across the country and not be limited to one subset of people. Due to the scale of this, I will only do 2 counts per film. One on Sunday T-4 (starting at 3PM CST), and a final count in the evening of T-1 (starting at 7PM CST). For major films (openings I believe will be over $100M), I will try to do 24HR sales figures as well. Below are the 10 theaters I'll be tracking and my goal is to do this for every film that has previews, no matter the size....

 

AMC Willowbrook 24 (Houston, TX)
AMC Grapevine 30 (Dallas, TX)
AMC Southlake 24 (Atlanta, GA)
AMC Boston Commons 19 (Boston, MA)
AMC Town Square 18 (Las Vegas, NV)
AMC Elmwood Palace 20 (New Orleans, LA)
AMC Vancouver Mall 23 (Seattle, WA)
AMC Indianapolis 17 (Indianapolis, IN)

AMC Century City 15 (Los Angeles, CA)
AMC South Barrington 24 (Chicago, IL) 

 

Always great to have more data thanks.

 

If you are going to go through that much effort, I suggest do some regional chain no? We already cover the complete chain, just 10 theaters probably won't do much?

 

I suggest pick 10 Marcus theaters.

 

Edit: I see everyone else telling you to do something and me joining as well. It now feels rude. I mean you do you but I hope you realise what we were trying to say.

 

Marcus website is alot easier than that of AMC. If you check.

Edited February 28, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[XXR & Friends]

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, PenguinXXR said:

 

I completely feel ya, XXR.

 

You do what you want, whatever it is it'll be helpful. 👍

 

[HouseOfTheSun]

7pm Imax near me is sold out

3pm is maybe at 40%. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, PenguinXXR said:

I didn't mean to be negative or anything, just a suggestion. Having more data is always good. 

[BruiseCruise]

My local imax for Thursday have sold around 20%