The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric Prime]

On 5/10/2023 at 9:36 PM, I Am Eric said:

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-22 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	123	1274	23838	5.34%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 109

 

Comp - T-22

4.470x of Sonic 2 (27.94M)

0.153x of Doctor Strange 2 (5.52M)

0.924x of Jurassic World 3 (16.63M)

0.302x of Thor 4 (8.76M)

0.218x of Black Panther 2 (6.1M)

1.052x of Avatar 2 (17.88M)

0.363x of Ant-Man 3 (6.36M)

1.171x of Mario (37.12M)

0.457x of Guardians 3 (8M)

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	123	1342	23838	5.63%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 68

 

Comp - T-21

4.247x of Sonic 2 (26.54M)

0.157x of Doctor Strange 2 (5.66M)

0.962x of Jurassic World 3 (17.32M)

0.305x of Thor 4 (8.84M)

0.223x of Black Panther 2 (6.25M)

1.029x of Avatar 2 (17.49M)

0.372x of Ant-Man 3 (6.51M)

1.182x of Mario (37.48M)

0.472x of Guardians 3 (8.27M)

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Spider-man across the spiderverse MTC1 Previews -  56830/733966 1036451.02 3901 shows +2959

 

Ok day. 

Spider-man across the spiderverse MTC1 Previews - 59665/734699 1085038.89 3907 shows +2835

 

That is a good hold for day 4. 

[keysersoze123]

14 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mermaid MTC1

Wednesday -  11214/35113 243188.80 154 shows

Thursday(T-15) - 34307/908734 604423.99 5536 shows +2142

 

its still continuing to show some boost from reactions though relatively subdued considering how far away its to release. 

Mermaid MTC1

Wednesday - 11570/35113 250549.92 154 shows

Previews(T-14) - 35960/908796 631559.34 5536 shows +1653 

[misterpepp]

Elemental on sale Tuesday, May 16.

 

About My Father on sale Wednesday, May 17.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, datpepper said:

Elemental on sale Tuesday, May 16.

 

 

Spoiler

prob not tracking it, but gonna have to at least glance at it just in case

 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

prob not tracking it, but gonna have to at least glance at it just in case

 

well I think you wont need to.

[Porthos]

58 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

well I think you wont need to.

 

Yeah, not wanting to tempt fate here.  Plan for the worst and all that.

 

Spoiler

I agree with you, ftr - but still gonna glance at it just in case

 

[Porthos]

On 5/11/2023 at 12:57 AM, Porthos said:

 

Across the Spider-Verse Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days and counting

 

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	123	18537	19896	1359	6.83%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

87

 

Day 3 Comps:

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
ET	111.30		148	1221		0/96	14322/15543	7.86%		6409	21.20%		11.95m
JWD	131.56		96	1033		0/163	21792/22825	4.53%		10966	12.39%		23.68m
BA	247.09		48	550		0/146	21513/22063	2.49%		4494	30.24%		18.78m
A2	73.03		172	1861		0/142	19477/21338	8.72%		8986	15.12%		12.41m
Wick 4	187.45		68	725		0/84	11995/12720	5.70%		5448	24.94%		16.68m
GOTG3	57.81		194	2351		0/205	27217/29568	7.95%		8363	16.25%		10.12m
TLM	222.06		68	612		0/154	21382/21994	1.08%		????	????		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of AtSV's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ET COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x to reflect the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     143/5583  [2.56% sold]
Matinee:    61/2373  [2.57% | 4.49% of all tickets sold]
------
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
AtSV = 1.23744x TS4 at the same sources of tracking after two days of sales [17.08m]    
AtSV = 0.79797x TLK at the same sources of tracking after two days of sales [21.11m]    
AtSV = 1.0513x F2 at the same sources of tracking after two days of sales      [10.28m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

 

=======

 

Switching to T-x comps starting tomorrow...

 

Across the Spider-Verse Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	123	18436	19896	1460	7.34%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

101

 

T-21 Comps:

	%		Sold T-21	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
ET	109.20		116	1337		0/96	14206/15543	8.60%		6409	22.78%		11.73m
JWD	77.66		71	1880		0/184	22927/24807	7.58%		10966	13.31%		13.98m
BA	342.72		426	426		0/142	21387/21813	1.95%		4494	32.49%		26.05m
A2	71.92		169	2030		0/142	19308/21338	9.51%		8986	16.25%		12.23m
Wick 4	222.22		176	657		0/84	12063/12720	5.17%		5448	26.80%		19.78m
GOTG3	46.99		93	3107		0/206	26559/29666	10.47%		8363	17.46%		8.22m
TLM	150.21		60	972		0/154	21676/22648	1.08%		????	????		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of AtSV's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ET COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x to reflect the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:      162/5583  [2.90% sold]
Matinee:    68/2373  [2.87% | 4.66% of all tickets sold]
--------
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
AtSV = 1.33399x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-21 [18.41m]    
AtSV = 0.80981x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-21 [21.42m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

Edited May 12, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 5/11/2023 at 12:56 AM, Porthos said:

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	154	21277	22717	1440	6.34%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

96

 

T-15 Comps:

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	313.04		33	460		0/76	11206/11666	3.94%		3951	36.45%		19.57m
JWD	59.38		99	2425		0/191	22947/25372	9.56%		10966	13.13%		10.69m
BA	168.82		65	853		0/146	21214/22067	3.87%		4494	32.04%		12.83m
Scream VI	232.26		91	620		0/68	7268/7888	7.86%		3134	45.95%		13.24m
Wick 4	132.47		64	1087		0/88	12243/13330	8.15%		5448	26.43%		11.79m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:        189/5710  [3.31% sold]
Matinee:        31/621  [4.99% | 2.15% of all tickets sold]
3D:            174/4054  [4.29% | 12.08% of all tickets sold]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 1.77961x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-15 [14.33m]    
TLM = 0.8677x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-15 [11.97m]    
TLM = 0.54676x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-15 [14.46m]    
TLM = 1.11482x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-15 [10.90m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	154	21187	22714	1527	6.72%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

87

 

T-14 Comps:

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	302.98		44	504		0/76	11162/11666	4.32%		3951	38.65%		18.94m
JWD	58.84		170	2595		0/191	22777/25372	10.23%		10966	13.92%		10.59m
BA	167.43		59	912		0/146	21155/22067	4.13%		4494	33.98%		12.73m
Scream VI	232.77		36	656		0/70	7662/8318	7.89%		3134	48.72%		13.27m
Wick 4	132.67		64	1151		0/88	12191/13342	8.63%		5448	28.03%		11.81m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:        201/5710  [3.52% sold]
Matinee:        39/621  [6.28% | 2.55% of all tickets sold]
3D:            187/4054  [4.61% | 12.25% of all tickets sold]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 1.84337x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-14 [14.84m]    
TLM = 0.89242x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-14 [12.32m]    
TLM = 0.56158x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-14 [14.85m]    
TLM = 1.04683x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-14 [10.23m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

[Porthos]

On 5/11/2023 at 12:55 AM, Porthos said:

 

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	179	26452	27889	1437	5.15%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

75

 

T-8 Unadjusted Comps:

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	122.61		134	1172		0/144	21181/22353	5.24%		3737	38.45%		7.60m
Bats	28.88		175	4976		0/297	31814/36790	13.53%		11757	12.22%		6.24m
TG:M	25.80		365	5570		0/268	31445/37015	15.05%		11474	12.52%		5.10m
JWD	40.24		191	3571		0/223	24183/27754	12.87%		10966	13.10%		7.24m
BA	112.79		82	1274		0/152	21685/22959	5.55%		4494	31.98%		8.57m
Wick 4	90.78		120	1583		0/109	13716/15299	10.35%		5448	26.38%		8.08m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-8 Adjusted Comp:

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	104.91		100	1323		0/84	11791/13114	10.09%		4407	32.61%		8.55m
Fast X (adj)			71	1388		0/161	23138/24526	5.66%

ADUSTMENT NOTE:  Fast X (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

F9 COMP NOTE:  The F9 comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     238/10115  [2.35% sold]
Matinee:    53/3516  [1.51% | 3.69% of all tickets sold]

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	179	26661	28141	1480	5.26%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

43

 

T-7 Unadjusted Comps:

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	113.67		130	1302		0/144	21051/22353	5.82%		3737	39.60%		7.05m
Bats	28.56		206	5182		0/297	31608/36790	14.09%		11757	12.59%		6.17m
TG:M	24.90		373	5943		0/271	31366/37309	15.93%		11474	12.90%		4.92m
JWD	38.10		314	3885		0/223	23869/27754	14.00%		10966	13.50%		6.86m
BA	105.94		123	1397		0/152	21562/22959	6.08%		4494	32.93%		8.05m
Wick 4	84.86		161	1744		0/113	13827/15571	11.20%		5448	27.17%		7.55m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-7 Adjusted Comp:

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	100.99		91	1414		0/86	11869/13283	10.65%		4407	33.58%		8.23m
Fast X (adj)			40	1428		0/161	23350/24778	5.76%

ADUSTMENT NOTE:  Fast X (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

F9 COMP NOTE:  The F9 comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     251/10367  [2.42% sold]
Matinee:    56/3600  [1.56% | 3.78% of all tickets sold]

[Eric Prime]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-transformers-rise-of-the-beasts-has-an-uphill-battle-between-spider-man-and-the-flash-next-month/
 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 5/12/23)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	4-Day (FSSM) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
5/19/2023	Fast X	$63,000,000 – $73,000,000		-4%	$141,500,000 – $181,000,000	-4%	Universal Pictures
5/26/2023	About My Father	$4,000,000 – $8,000,000			$10,000,000 – $29,000,000		Lionsgate
5/26/2023	Kandahar	$5,000,000 – $10,000,000			$14,000,000 – $31,000,000		Open Road Films
5/26/2023	The Little Mermaid (2023)	$80,000,000 – $95,000,000	$102,000,000 – $122,000,000	+6%	$255,000,000 – $322,000,000	+6%	Walt Disney Pictures
5/26/2023	The Machine						Sony Pictures / Legendary Pictures
5/26/2023	You Hurt My Feelings						A24
5/27/2023	Oggy and the Cockroaches: The Movie						Seven Minds Family Films
6/2/2023	The Boogeyman	$19,000,000 – $26,000,000			$61,000,000 – $102,000,000		Disney / 20th Century Studios
6/2/2023	Past Lives (Platform)						A24
6/2/2023	Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse	$85,000,000 – $105,000,000			$226,000,000 – $325,000,000		Sony / Columbia Pictures
6/9/2023	Transformers: Rise of the Beasts	$30,000,000 – $40,000,000			$61,000,000 – $90,000,000		Paramount Pictures

 

[filmlover]

"Bombs Away!" it is for Transformers then. Shrug.

[PrinceRico]

3 minutes ago, I Am Eric said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-transformers-rise-of-the-beasts-has-an-uphill-battle-between-spider-man-and-the-flash-next-month/
 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 5/12/23)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	4-Day (FSSM) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
5/19/2023	Fast X	$63,000,000 – $73,000,000		-4%	$141,500,000 – $181,000,000	-4%	Universal Pictures
5/26/2023	About My Father	$4,000,000 – $8,000,000			$10,000,000 – $29,000,000		Lionsgate
5/26/2023	Kandahar	$5,000,000 – $10,000,000			$14,000,000 – $31,000,000		Open Road Films
5/26/2023	The Little Mermaid (2023)	$80,000,000 – $95,000,000	$102,000,000 – $122,000,000	+6%	$255,000,000 – $322,000,000	+6%	Walt Disney Pictures
5/26/2023	The Machine						Sony Pictures / Legendary Pictures
5/26/2023	You Hurt My Feelings						A24
5/27/2023	Oggy and the Cockroaches: The Movie						Seven Minds Family Films
6/2/2023	The Boogeyman	$19,000,000 – $26,000,000			$61,000,000 – $102,000,000		Disney / 20th Century Studios
6/2/2023	Past Lives (Platform)						A24
6/2/2023	Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse	$85,000,000 – $105,000,000			$226,000,000 – $325,000,000		Sony / Columbia Pictures
6/9/2023	Transformers: Rise of the Beasts	$30,000,000 – $40,000,000			$61,000,000 – $90,000,000		Paramount Pictures

 

Unfortunately Transformers will half to pay the price for the massive damage Bay did with the last two films. 

[SpiderByte]

I get that Fast X is looking bad relative to it's insane budget but what's the actual OW looking at?

[stripe]

As noted by Shawn, Transformers might have a painful domestic run similar to one of the last two Terminator sequels. Dark Fate grossed 62M in November'19 and Genisys 90M in July'15. No matter the quality, il looks like a big part of the audience already has lost interest in the saga.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

27 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

I get that Fast X is looking bad relative to it's insane budget but what's the actual OW looking at?

60-70

[SpiderByte]

30 minutes ago, stripe said:

As noted by Shawn, Transformers might have a painful domestic run similar to one of the last two Terminator sequels. Dark Fate grossed 62M in November'19 and Genisys 90M in July'15. No matter the quality, il looks like a big part of the audience already has lost interest in the saga.

I was hoping that Bumblebee would help right the ship, especially since visually the new movie clearly takes more from that than Bays aesthetic, but yeah it seems too little too late unless WOM is exceptional 

[WorkingonaName]

Bumblebee was boring, the franchise needs something like the first 3 movies if it wants to get back on top. 

[keysersoze123]

On 5/10/2023 at 9:36 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Fast X MTC1 previews (T-8) - 38496/522966 697149.00 2577 shows +2341

 

Pace is definitely picking up. I feel 8m+ previews can happen unless the movie is terrible and final week surge is bad. So 70m+ OW can still happen. 

Fast X

MTC1 previews (T-7) - 40594/530449 733205.04 2624 shows +2098

MTC2 previews - 29529/552988 450003.53 3437 shows

 

MTC2 started day time yesterday and so will not call it T-7. Its numbers are ahead of T-5 of F9 at MTC1 and should have overtaken at MTC2 as well. So previews should be slightly ahead of last one. 

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 hour ago, PrinceRico said:

Unfortunately Transformers will half to pay the price for the massive damage Bay did with the last two films. 

I mean, it's likely gonna come in under Bumblebee's 127M DOM. Potentially under Bumblebee's 465M WW too... Wouldn't that have paid more of a price? Ya know, releasing like a year or so after the Transformers 5... That's 2018 movie ticket prices too. I imagine Bumblebee's closer to 140M DOM with today's ticket prices. Or, for whatever reason, you think this one is likely to pay the price more so than the one released directly after them? Eager to hear the reasoning here...