The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[TheFlatLannister]

25 minutes ago, YSLDC said:

 

It's a solo movie with the Flash origin story. Why should it be pre-sales heavy? It'll have great word of mouth and can open at 150M plus

Idk based on Social media hype I thought this would breakout bigtime...Something like NWH for DC but on a smaller scale

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Across the Spider-Verse Alamo Drafthouse

T-10 Thursday

137 Showings

5013

+280

21003

ATP:

15.92

0.393

Thor L&T T-10

11.41M

1.008

Eternals  T-10

9.57M

 

T-11 Friday

177 Showings

4558

+233

29030

ATP:

16.06

0.429

Thor L&T T-11

17.39M

1.035

Eternals  T-11

22.09M

 

T-12 Saturday

169 Showings

4550

+202

28005

0.451

Thor L&T T-12

19.01M

1.014

Eternals  T-12

24.46M

 

T-13 Sunday

153 Showings

2736

+261

25326

0.494

Thor L&T T-13

16.04M

1.043

Eternals T-13

17.03M

Across the Spider-Verse Alamo Drafthouse

T-9 Thursday

152 Showings

5260

+247

22875

ATP:

15.97

0.471	Ant-Man 3 T-9	8.24M
0.402	Thor L&T T-9	11.66M
0.543	Batman Thurs only T-9	9.56M
1.028	Eternals  T-9	9.76M

 

T-10 Friday

177 Showings

4845

+287

28666

ATP:

16.07

0.482	Ant-Man 3 T-10	13.94M
0.438	Thor L&T T-10	17.76M
0.494	Batman T-10	17.32M
1.046	Eternals  T-10	22.32M

 

T-11 Saturday 169 Showings 4714 +164 27641

0.459	Ant-Man 3 T-11	15.56M
0.452	Thor L&T T-11	19.02M
0.490	Batman T-11	21.21M
1.003	Eternals  T-11	24.20M

 

T-12 Sunday 153 Showings 2882 +146 24962

0.586	Ant-Man 3 T-12	15.10M
0.498	Thor L&T T-12	16.20M
0.684	Batman T-12	23.36M
1.050	Eternals T-12	17.15M

[cax16]

3 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Idk based on Social media hype I thought this would breakout bigtime...Something like NWH for DC but on a smaller scale

After black adam and Shazam 100m would be a big break out for dc lol.

 

I just don’t see any reason for anyone to rush out to buy tickets for this unless they’re super hardcore like me. DC has been inconsistent for a long time so I’m sure there’s lots of people waiting for reviews. 

Edited May 23, 2023 by cax16

[Inceptionzq]

The Flash Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

102

2188

4.66%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

48

1179

4.07%

 

 

Monday: 149

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
321	N/A	20180	1.59%	13	106

 

0.436x Guardians first 11 hours (7.62M)

0.343x Ant-Man 3 first 14 hours (5.99M)

1.89x Black Adam first 23 hours (14.35M)

0.185x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (5.36M)

0.272x Batman first 6.5 hours (5.88M)

0.798x Eternals first 10 hours (7.58M)

0.786x Black Widow first 7 hours (10.37M)

 

Keep in mind, this is only the first 6.5 hours of sales (it started at 9AM PT/12PM ET right?), so the Marvel comps are undershooting it. But still, don't think this is a good start for a 100M+ opening

[Inceptionzq]

The Flash Alamo Drafthouse

T-23 Thursday

117 Showings

1017

+1017

19017

ATP:

15.93

0.204	Guardians first 11 hours	3.57M
0.282	Ant-Man 3 first 14 hours	4.94M
1.614	Black Adam first 23 hours	12.27M
0.141	Thor L&T first 8.5 hours	4.10M
0.205	The Batman first 6.5 hours	3.60M

 

T-24 Friday

155 Showings

520

+520

25768

ATP:

16.62

0.177	Guardians first 11 hours	5.42M
0.284	Ant-Man 3 first 14 hours	8.21M
1.140	Black Adam first 23 hours	21.77M
0.113	Thor L&T first 8.5 hours	4.58M
0.126	The Batman first 6.5 hours	4.41M

 

T-25 Saturday

149 Showings

418

+418

24311

ATP:

15.33

0.128	Guardians first 11 hours	4.96M
0.272	Ant-Man 3 first 14 hours	9.22M
0.903	Black Adam first 23 hours	21.41M
0.108	Thor L&T first 8.5 hours	4.56M
0.136	The Batman first 6.5 hours	5.87M

 

T-26 Sunday

134 Showings

169

+169

22351

ATP:

14.83

0.132	Guardians first 11 hours	4.13M
0.389	Ant-Man 3 first 14 hours	10.01M
1.271	Black Adam first 23 hours	21.10M
0.097	Thor L&T first 8.5 hours	3.14M
0.150	The Batman first 6.5 hours	5.11M

[John Marston]

 

Flash comparisons to Top Gun Maverick?

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

79

2335

3.38%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

80

1365

5.86%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
306	N/A	20929	1.46%	13	104

 

0.416x Avatar 2 first 7 hours (7.07M)

1.38x Ghostbusters first 12 hours (6.20M)

 

I'll have a JW Dominion comp tomorrow

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

83

2338

3.55%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

112

1365

8.21%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
365	59	20932	1.74%	13	104

 

0.316x Avatar 2 Day 2 (5.38M)

0.480x JW Dominion Day 2 (8.64M)

1.32x Ghostbusters Day 2 (5.95M)

[Welcbr12]

10 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Flash Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

102

2188

4.66%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

48

1179

4.07%

 

 

Monday: 149

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
321	N/A	20180	1.59%	13	106

 

0.436x Guardians first 11 hours (7.62M)

0.343x Ant-Man 3 first 14 hours (5.99M)

0.185x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (5.36M)

0.272x Batman first 6.5 hours (5.88M)

 

Keep in mind, this is only the first 6.5 hours of sales (it started at 9AM PT/12PM ET right?), so the Marvel comps are undershooting it. But still, don't think this is a good start for a 100M+ opening

Not a good start for sure, but nothing terrible tho

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alamo Drafthouse

T-38 Thursday

107 Showings

1908

N/A

16879

ATP:

15.74

1.52	Avatar 2 first 7 hours	25.87M
1.61	Ghostbusters first 12 hours	7.23M

 

T-39 Friday

154 Showings

1363

N/A

25444

ATP:

15.50

0.99	Avatar 2 first 7 hours	35.81M
1.61	Ghostbusters first 12 hours	19.53M

 

T-40 Saturday

155 Showings

1100

N/A

25709

ATP:

15.03

0.70

Avatar 2 first 7 hours

30.94M

 

T-41 Sunday

141 Showings

491

N/A

23742

ATP:

14.63

0.77

Avatar 2 first 7 hours

28.19M

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alamo Drafthouse

T-37 Thursday

107 Showings

2281

+373

16615

ATP:

15.76

1.27	Avatar 2 Day 2	21.65M
1.20	JW Dominion Day 2	21.52M
1.70	Ghostbusters Day 2	7.63M

 

T-38 Friday

154 Showings

1827

+464

25089

ATP:

15.41

0.86	Avatar 2 Day 2	31.26M
1.43	JW Dominion Day 2	59.50M
1.84	Ghostbusters Day 2	22.35M

 

T-39 Saturday

155 Showings

1545

+445

25354

ATP:

14.93

0.67	Avatar 2 Day 2	29.70M
1.27	JW Dominion Day 2	59.77M

 

T-40 Sunday

141 Showings

670

+179

23387

ATP:

14.42

0.65	Avatar 2 Day 2	23.65M
1.53	JW Dominion Day 2	59.05M

[jedijake]

For TLM, are we expecting a weekend multiplier (3-Day) from previews to be in the range of movies like Sonic 2/Beauty and the Beast/Aladdin (11-13X) or more like JWD/AvatarWOW/Lion King (around 8X)?

 

My personal guess would be in between at around 9-10X range. 

Edited May 23, 2023 by jedijake

[21C]

34 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Oh the solo movie with 2 generational Batman’s, Supergirl and other glorified cameos 

 

You’re setting yourself to disappointment treating this as a normal standalone movie and not the wrap up of the Snyder Verse

I mean that's the thing... The Flash is a big event DCEU movie, and no one cares about the DCEU. 
Also I still contend that the Keaton nostalgia only works to a certain extent; mostly because this movie is so, so far removed from any of the aesthetics of Burton's movies to the point that the nostalgia bait doesn't work as well. If it was a proper legacy sequel with Pfeiffer's Catwoman and Burton's aesthetic, you can bet things would be bigger but here unless you're a hardcore DC fanatic, the only proper reaction to seeing Keaton's Batman in the context of this movie is "Huh?"

Edited May 23, 2023 by 21C

[Joyous Legion]

15 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Flash Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

102

2188

4.66%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

48

1179

4.07%

 

 

Monday: 149

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
321	N/A	20180	1.59%	13	106

 

0.436x Guardians first 11 hours (7.62M)

0.343x Ant-Man 3 first 14 hours (5.99M)

0.185x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (5.36M)

0.272x Batman first 6.5 hours (5.88M)

 

Keep in mind, this is only the first 6.5 hours of sales (it started at 9AM PT/12PM ET right?), so the Marvel comps are undershooting it. But still, don't think this is a good start for a 100M+ opening

Do you have BW/ET/BA?

[Joyous Legion]

2 minutes ago, jedijake said:

For TLM, are we expecting a weekend multiplier (3-Day) from previews to be in the range of movies like Sonic 2/Beauty and the Beast/Aladdin (11-13X) or more like JWD/AvatarWOW/Lion King (around 8X)?

 

My personal guess would be in between at around 9-10X range. 

Yeah 9-10ish. 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Would Black Adam be a good comp for Flash? Don’t mean to put more work on the trackers, just wondering.

[YM!]

31 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Transformers specifically would benefit a lot from an September release … recognizable brand but not a priority anymore, could’ve thrive without competition 

Like y’all could mint a solid 150-200m in a barren September which is something that Beast would have no chance at in June and if enjoyed, you come back big for a summer sequel.

[joselowe]

It's sad that ever since Discovery took over WB that their films suck! I used to work at Discovery before the merger when they were in Silver Spring Maryland and their whole thing is to save money. They literally don't care about the quality as long as it's cheap and can get views in flyover states. Hopefully they get a ROI on something this year. The Flash has a ton of potential but seeing Warner Discovery drop the ball with this won't be a surprise.

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, jedijake said:

For TLM, are we expecting a weekend multiplier (3-Day) from previews to be in the range of movies like Sonic 2/Beauty and the Beast/Aladdin (11-13X) or more like JWD/AvatarWOW/Lion King (around 8X)?

 

My personal guess would be in between at around 9-10X range. 

Sub 10x for sure. Nothing I have indicated that backloaded an OW. Plus the fact that it has early shows tomorrow as well. it has close to 6000 shows at the biggest chain till thursday. I dont think pre-pandemic movies had such wide previews. Mostly the previews used to start later and had fewer shows. The concept of "previews" is gone. This is almost another full day of BO for big movies. 

[Inceptionzq]

8 minutes ago, Legions of the Galaxy said:

Do you have BW/ET/BA?

Edited in those comps. I was just gonna wait until the 24 hour mark for BA comps, but eh whatever

[Mulder]

Baffling that anyone would think Snyder fans are going to turn up in large numbers for the movie that's the antithesis of his films and that's going to end up wiping that universe from existence.

[cooldude97]

How funny would it be after so many months of hyping up indy 5 or flash as the top gun maverick of summer 2023 they both just end up doing only fine, and TLM and spider-verse were the ones to break out