The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric is Quiet]

Moderation

 

Not the Elemental thread.

 

[YM!]

Edited

Edited May 28, 2023 by YM!

[JustLurking]

4 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

hahahaha. No.

Two of Pixar’s most beloved films. Those were NOT the bars people with any sense on this forum were holding Elemental to. 
 

TLM just proved this weekend you can have decent reviews in the 65-70% range and have audiences adore it (95% verified RT and A cinema score). This would be the bar that most sane people would have for Elemental, especially given what happened to Pixar’s brand over the last several years, pandemic/Disney+ impact. 
 

Be for real. NOBODY in their right mind was expecting this to be the next Inside Out. 
 

Did give me a good laugh for the evening though. 
 

TLM is a live action remake. Elemental is an animated original. If Elemental gets TLM reviews I don't think it will even open to 30M the way tracking looked.

 

"Nobody" must not include Pixar execs considering they quite literally attempted to repeat the exact same path IO and Coco went through with the Cannes showing.

 

Get a grip, man. And try not to be so dismissive and aggressive perhaps.

 

EDIT: Didn't see mod warning. Sorry, last post on this one from me.

Edited May 28, 2023 by JustLurking

[M37]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

*Not the best comp, but I need a high end*

(2.559x) of Fast X 

~$19.2M THUR Previews 

I actually think is a fairly good comp tbh, pace is very similar (grew by $0.2M), and the demo/market skew may be somewhat close as well 

[TheFlatLannister]

@M37 what about fast x for the flash? Preview seem to be floating around Fast x and I think demo would be somewhat similar 

[excel1]

1 hour ago, cooldude97 said:

it's the weekend if it didn't trend up during the weekend that would be a problem

 

not referring to ticket sales. its comp vs GOTG grew. 

[M37]

51 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

@M37 what about fast x for the flash? Preview seem to be floating around Fast x and I think demo would be somewhat similar 

I think John Wick is better (if you have it), but Fast X is in that same range. Long presale window will make comp value lower now, but should catch up (if not surpass) in final week. Much closer than GOTG3 for sure 

[Joyous Legion]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

would fast x be a good comp for The Flash?

Not even close

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Legions of the Galaxy said:

Not even close

Come on man. Both are fast. 

[poweranimals]

I think the best comp for Flash is probably JWD.

[charlie Jatinder]

The only comp for Flash is Spider Verse.

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Spider-man across the Spiderverse MTC1 Previews(T-6) - 109547/746110 1975105.53 3998 shows // +7887

 

Spider-man across the Spiderverse Previews

MTC1(T-5) - 116120/748417 2081174.98 4010 shows 

MTC2 - 63691/411095 930920.58 2517 shows 

 

relatively slow day. I guess real final push starts tomorrow. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

21 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Spider-man across the Spiderverse Previews

MTC1(T-5) - 116120/748417 2081174.98 4010 shows 

MTC2 - 63691/411095 930920.58 2517 shows 

 

relatively slow day. I guess real final push starts tomorrow. 

Probably Monday. Tomorrow's bump will be limited since it's a long weekend.

[Joyous Legion]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The only comp for Flash is Spider Verse.

Spiderverse is having a great middle and seemingly finish. Being a good comp for live action DCEU would be a miracle for it

[Wesley]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The only comp for Flash is Spider Verse.

Spiderverse is a Cartoon and its Marvel be real ? Best comp is DC movies like Black Adam and Shazam 2 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, Legions of the Galaxy said:

Spiderverse is having a great middle and seemingly finish. Being a good comp for live action DCEU would be a miracle for it

all that being true, if flash doesn't keep up with it, we will also know by comping with verse. I mean you know how much attention I pay to direct comps 

[Porthos]

On 5/27/2023 at 2:41 AM, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Sacto Report [T-13]

873/19437 [4.49% sold] [+69 tickets]

0.20227x the sales of TGM at T-13                 [3.90m]

0.32250x the sales of JWD at T-13                 [5.80m]

0.89538x the sales of Black Adam at T-13     [6.80m]

2.03497x the sales of Shazam 2 at T-13        [6.92m]

0.70918x the sales of Wick 4 at T-13             [6.31m]

0.79436x the sales of Fast X at T-13              [5.96m]

 

===

 

Still trending upward; I'll make a final decision on a full track Sun or Mon night.

 

Quick and Dirty Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Sacto Report [T-12]

916/19437 [4.49% sold] [+43 tickets]

0.19857x the sales of TGM at T-12                 [3.82m]

0.32575x the sales of JWD at T-12                 [5.86m]

0.88932x the sales of Black Adam at T-12     [6.76m]

2.08182x the sales of Shazam 2 at T-12        [7.08m]

0.71339x the sales of Wick 4 at T-12             [6.35m]

0.78425x the sales of Fast X at T-12              [5.88m]

Edited May 29, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-34 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	124	18921	19488	567	2.91%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	226
Total Seats Sold Today	26

 

T-34 Comps:

	%		Sold T-34	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	42.95		69	1320		0/168	22354/23674	5.58%		10966	5.17%		7.73m
FX	88.04		10	644		0/182	27121/27765	2.32%		8363	0.00%		6.60m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:      88/6084  [1.45% sold]
Matinee:    35/1728  [2.03% | 6.17% of all tickets sold]

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-33 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	124	18934	19527	593	3.04%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

26

 

T-33 Comps:

	%		Sold T-33	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	43.54		42	1362		0/168	22312/23674	5.75%		10966	5.41%		7.84m
FX	90.12		14	658		0/182	27086/27744	2.37%		8363	7.09%		6.76m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:      90/6084  [1.48% sold]
Matinee:    33/1728  [1.91% | 5.56% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	24217	25142	925	3.68%

 

Total Showings Added Today	4
Total Seats Added Today	414
Total Seats Sold Today	96

 

T-20 Comps:

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	184.26		76	502		0/142	21311/21813	2.30%		4494	20.58%		14.00m
Wick 4	127.59		68	725		0/84	11995/12720	5.70%		5448	16.98%		11.36m
AtSV	59.33		99	1559		0/123	18343/19902	7.83%		????	????		????

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     149/5286  [2.82% sold]
Matinee:    17/2140  [0.79% | 1.84% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Didn't have time tonight to figure out what, if any, other comps to add (been away from the forum literally all day).  Have to make do with these for now.

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	24172	25148	976	3.88%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

51

 

T-19 Comps:

	%		Sold T-19	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	177.45		48	550		0/146	21513/22063	2.49%		4494	21.72%		13.49m
Wick 4	126.42		47	772		0/86	12192/12964	5.95%		5448	17.91%		11.25m
AtSV	60.96		42	1601		0/123	18301/19902	8.04%		????	????		????

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     155/5286  [2.93% sold]
Matinee:    17/2140  [0.79% | 1.74% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Across the Spider-Verse Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	142	19179	22474	3295	14.66%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	332
Total Seats Sold Today	266

 

T-6 Comps:

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
ET	119.82		97	2750		0/101	13218/15968	17.22%		6409	51.41%		12.87m
JWD	79.02		285	4170		0/223	23587/27757	15.02%		10966	30.05%		14.22m
BA	216.63		124	1521		0/163	22454/23975	6.34%		4494	73.32%		16.46m
A2	75.06		236	4390		0/184	21739/26129	16.80%		8986	36.67%		12.76m
Wick 4	173.60		154	1898		0/113	13673/15571	12.19%		5448	60.48%		15.45m
GOTG3	66.59		317	4948		0/226	26866/31814	15.55%		8363	39.40%		11.65m
TLM	128.06		151	2573		0/173	21977/24550	10.48%		6561	50.22%		13.19m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of AtSV's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ET COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x to reflect the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:        599/7728  [7.75% sold]
Matinee:    247/2870  [8.61% | 7.50% of all tickets sold]
------
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
AtSV = 1.28943x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-6 [17.79m]    
AtSV = 0.68007x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-6 [17.99m]    
AtSV = 1.33008x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-6    [13.00m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

 

Across the Spider-Verse Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	142	18901	22474	3573	15.90%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

278

 

T-5 Comps:

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
ET	125.41		99	2849		0/101	13119/15968	17.84%		6409	55.75%		13.47m
JWD	77.35		449	4619		0/224	23313/27932	16.54%		10966	32.58%		13.92m
BA	213.95		149	1670		0/169	22641/24311	6.87%		4494	79.51%		16.26m
A2	76.25		296	4686		0/198	22541/27227	17.21%		8986	39.76%		12.96m
Wick 4	173.11		166	2064		0/118	14480/16544	12.48%		5448	65.58%		15.41m
GOTG3	68.54		265	5213		0/226	26601/31814	16.39%		8363	42.72%		11.99m
TLM	132.48		124	2697		0/175	22324/25021	10.78%		6561	54.46%		13.65m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of AtSV's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ET COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x to reflect the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:        684/7728  [8.85% sold]
Matinee:    272/2870  [9.48% | 7.61% of all tickets sold]
------
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
AtSV = 1.29046x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-5 [17.81m]    
AtSV = 0.69493x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-5 [18.38m]    
AtSV = 1.34402x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-5 [13.14m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.