Weekday Numbers (12/27-30) | Asgard 2 says 20.5 Thursday for NWH | Derby is Back!

[KP1025]

17 minutes ago, Danhjpn said:

How can you know the 3rd weekend has sub 40% drop? what if it will have more than 50% drop?

 

 

It's certainly possible for it to drop worse than 40% (50% seems too high though). I would say $50+ million this weekend is likely if it follows a similar drop on Friday and increase on Saturday as last weekend. Also accounting for a worse Sunday drop due to end of holidays. Something like -30% Fri, +60% Sat, -30% Sun would get to $54 million (36% drop).

Edited January 1, 2022 by KP1025

[narniadis]

26 minutes ago, Danhjpn said:

 

stronger weekdays balance out the bad weekends, so it turns out normal, not much different from normal weekdays and normal weekends. That's what I mean.

How can you know the 3rd weekend has sub 40% drop? what if it will have more than 50% drop?

 

The bad weekend this time is only due to where Christmas Eve fell (and for Spidey, compounded by the huge previews that couldn't be balanced out.) There is a reason that the studios pack this 2-2.5 week period with films each year. The best configuration of the Calendar is Christmas on Wednesday or Friday, the Worst is when Christmas eve falls on Friday and Saturday (so next year will also be rough.) However, the one day of bad influence is far far outweighed by the overall increase in weekday capacity which is NOT available at any other point on the calendar. Simple mathematics, more people are off work and available during the last 2 weeks of December than at any other point in the year. 

 

Trust us old guard who have watched the ebb and flow for many years (if not decades for some of us.) There is reason for the studio and scheduling madness. 

 

And if Spidey falls more than 50% its a collapse from here on out and would be a shock. It should be somewhere in the 35-40% range based on past behavior and the covid factor. 

Edited January 1, 2022 by narniadis

[Tokugennumataka]

7 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

 

It's certainly possible for it to drop worse than 40% (50% seems too high though). I would say $50+ million this weekend is likely if it follows a similar drop on Friday and increase on Saturday as last weekend. Also accounting for a worse Sunday drop due to end of holidays. Something like -30% Fri, +60% Sat, -30% Sun would get to $54 million (36% drop).

An uber blockbuster dropping 30% on NYE is unlikely. Also that 60% on Sat looks really high given the dampened Christmas bump this year. But they cancel each other out. 

[Legion Again]

36 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

If only 5 million or so people decided to not fall into hype and decided to watch it outside of OW. 210/740 looks better than 260/740.

Nah, 210 looks pathetic 😛 

[Legion Again]

18 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

An uber blockbuster dropping 30% on NYE is unlikely. Also that 60% on Sat looks really high given the dampened Christmas bump this year. But they cancel each other out. 

Yeah, I have -20 +40, but it’s literally an identical Sat 😛 

[Tokugennumataka]

3 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Nah, 210 looks pathetic 😛 

Maybe. But I would prefer to have my excitement last throughout the two weeks of holiday run rather than an insanely high OW. 

[john2000]

any numbers ?

[baumer]

48 minutes ago, john2000 said:

any numbers ?

 

The Gods are sleeping

[wildphantom]

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, john2000 said:

any numbers ?

Sure, here is a nice number: 16.9

[Tokugennumataka]

11 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Sure, here is a nice number: 16.9

Gimme that 42.0 percent Sat jump. 

[Mango]

Since opening No Way Home’s only day under $20m was Christmas Eve. What a hell of a run. 
 

I can’t say for sure, obviously, but if this ends up being the last big box office run thanks to the changing of the industry and “outside factors” and such, I’m pretty happy it was this one. I’ve been three times now with different groups and each time the audience absolutely adores it.

 

I can’t speak internationally, but as far as North America is concerned, Spidey is definitely our hero. People fucking love him.

[Tokugennumataka]

20 minutes ago, Mango said:

Since opening No Way Home’s only day under $20m was Christmas Eve. What a hell of a run. 
 

I can’t say for sure, obviously, but if this ends up being the last big box office run thanks to the changing of the industry and “outside factors” and such, I’m pretty happy it was this one. I’ve been three times now with different groups and each time the audience absolutely adores it.

 

I can’t speak internationally, but as far as North America is concerned, Spidey is definitely our hero. People fucking love him.

I think boxoffice will thrive for another year atleast. Avatar 2 could be the final one. So Jakesully is your hero. 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Other than Avatar sequels I'm certain WB is mulling a Harry Potter sequel which would challenge $2B and Avengers 5 would too I believe. 

 

Other than that yeah hard to think anything else that gross in that region.

[Legion Again]

If A5 miss 2B that’s a flop. Same for 300M OW.   
 

Harry Potter is tricky because of narrative reasons/cursed child/Rowling/FB, but if they crack that nut the nostalgic potential is certainly there.