MLK 2021 Weekend Thread | Scream 3.5 Previews

[RichWS]

I think the Scream opening is perfectly fine. Any talk of 50M was always crazy and I had no idea where it came from.

 

Just like the fourth one, it's kinda wild how many people tend to overestimate the nostalgic appeal of this series. To me, it's always been a franchise very much of its time, just like the first three American Pie films. Austin Powers is another example. They came out, did very well and everybody moved on. Not every set of films from the 90's-early 2000's has an inherent nostalgia that guarantees huge numbers.

[Legion Again]

I agree with Nash that the 30M 3day is a little underwhelming after sales+good reception, and Pizza is having another good hold…
 

But Krissykin is undeniably right that far more people care about scream than Pizza.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

21 minutes ago, RichWS said:

I think the Scream opening is perfectly fine. Any talk of 50M was always crazy and I had no idea where it came from.

 

Just like the fourth one, it's kinda wild how many people tend to overestimate the nostalgic appeal of this series. To me, it's always been a franchise very much of its time, just like the first three American Pie films. Austin Powers is another example. They came out, did very well and everybody moved on. Not every set of films from the 90's-early 2000's has an inherent nostalgia that guarantees huge numbers.

What? Austin Power is still insanely popular and memed and huge. I don't know how well a 4th one would do now considering comedy is dead at box office but there was surely an opportunity maybe 5 years ago or so for a huge hit

 

American Reunion also made 177 million internationally alone. It underwhelmed domestic with 57m but 234m WW on 50m budget is huge numbers

 

I think what held Scream 5 back a bit is how it's far too redundant to 4 in terms of concept. This is the 2nd time the original cast has been brought back with a younger generation. At least Halloween 18 was a retcon that erased the sequels so there was a unique selling point there and different enough from H20

Edited January 15, 2022 by BestPicturePlutoNash

[Legion Again]

5 hours ago, snarkmachine said:

This thread is a good example of why studios lowball their predictions so much. After people started speculating that 50m/4-day was on the table, a perfectly good opening now looks underwhelming in response

The fact that misleadingly low predictions make it easy to get “exceeds expectations” PR does not in any way justify paying attention to misleadingly low predictions from an actual accuracy and forecasting perspective though.

[RyneOh1040]

lol at people saying this opening is underwhelming in any way.  i feel like so many people here cannot get a grip that the pandemic is still raging and CRIPPLING the box office because five marvel films and the halloween sequel bucked the trend.  

 

30 million plus is huge considering the environment and the way the series stumbled with scream 4 (which i loved btw).  

 

does horror typically do well in january? absolutely.  is it still not a typical january? absolutely.  we’re talking about a 25 year old horror series, on its fifth entry, having one of the tenth biggest openings of the past year at the bo and it’s disappointing?

 

aye yai yai. get a grip kids.

Edited January 16, 2022 by RyneOh1040

[Legion Again]

32 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

But it still made money here.  So none of that is coming in this time.  Every dollar counts.

Every collar counts, but more dollars count more 😛   
 

I think it’s pretty reasonable to keep in mind when the Canada impact is relatively large vs when it’s relatively small (like now).

[RichWS]

18 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

What? Austin Power is still insanely popular and memed and huge. I don't know how well a 4th one would do now considering comedy is dead at box office but there was surely an opportunity maybe 5 years ago or so for a huge hit

 

Sure, it would've made money but it wouldn't have matched expectations. Maybe it comes down to these being movies that came out when I was in middle/high school (I am getting old) but just because something was a big hit back in the day doesn't mean people are clamoring for it today. I suppose my issue is less about money and more about creative bankruptcy. 

[Andy]

Halloween does good but it is released at the right time too, people want a scary movie in October. If Scream 5 was released then I’d say it would do even better than 30 million. 
 

Scream 5 has done enough for a sequel and I doubt it will be another 10 years before it’s made. I’d say within 2/3 years it will be out. 

[Andy]

I’m surprised American Pie hasn’t had another sequel yet. The last one did do good WW. It’s been another 10 years so they could do another reunion or American Vacation, Vegas, etc. There is lots of plots that they could do, which has been done before, but could work with the cast. 

[Eric Loves Rey]

Nah Rich is onto something here. The whole joke of Austin Powers is "man, the 60s sure are WACKY" which just doesn't really hold much weight these days. And barring a few MILF jokes here and there, I honestly haven't seen anybody talk about American Pie since the last one that came out. That's another one where I don't think the subject matter is as funny or as compelling as it was back in the late 90s/early 00s. Maybe they would do fine as an HBO Max/Peacock Original Movie, but I doubt they'd make much money in theaters.

[Legion Again]

You would have to adapt the core premise of each a fair bit if you wanted a 2020s version. I feel like Austin Powers could survive the process decently, but American Pie… not so much 😬

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I agree about studios being creatively bankrupt but before saturation of terrible spy comedies and "spoofs" like Kingsmen, Austin Powers 4 probably is a smash around 2012 2013. All you need is Dr. Evil and some dick jokes. Goldmember was very 2000s with little 70s satire. 

 

But horror is probably the second biggest genre where most dormant franchises could make a feasible financial comeback. Comedy is more or less dead. I still fully believe a new F13 or Elm Street massively hits. Exorcist might be the one that flops, though. There's just too many demonic films and I don't think the sequels in general made much of an impact. Young generations which dictate the moviegoing climate aren't rushing out to see Ellen Burstyn back on screen

[Eric Loves Rey]

Honestly I'm trying to think of a 2000s comedy franchise you could bring back and I'm at a loss on all the big ones. A new Meet the Parents could be fun, but it's probably too "regular-looking" in the "only action tentpoles succeed" environment we live in today, and I don't think the cast/Jay Roach is all that interested in a new one of those. YouTube killed parody movies, so Scary Movie's out. Rush Hour could probably copy the Bad Boys for Life template okay, but Jackie Chan doesn't get as much attention these days compared to Will Smith. I guess Legally Blonde 3, if that ever gets made, could do like 65M? That's not so bad I guess. Maybe an Elf sequel could do well? People love watching Elf every Christmas. A proper Mean Girls 2 could go either way IMO, and I'm not sure if the creatives are super game to make a new one.

 

Man, people only watching like 3 franchises makes it real hard to determine what would be a hit or not.

[Legion Again]

I’m never liked the marketing for the Hangovers or seen any of them, but they were huge right? Can some comedy knower tell me whether there is potential there?

Edited January 16, 2022 by Product Driven Legion

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

I’m never liked the marketing for the Hangovers or seen any of them, but they were huge right? Can some comedy knower tell me whether there is potential there?

 

If you got all the original cast back, I could see it opening over $60M (considering that by the time it gets here it would be at least 2023.)

[AJG]

5 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

I’m never liked the marketing for the Hangovers or seen any of them, but they were huge right? Can some comedy knower tell me whether there is potential there?

We all got sick of those films immediately after the second.

[Eric Loves Rey]

10 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

I’m never liked the marketing for the Hangovers or seen any of them, but they were huge right? Can some comedy knower tell me whether there is potential there?

 

4 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said:

 

If you got all the original cast back, I could see it opening over $60M (considering that by the time it gets here it would be at least 2023.)

Ehh, feel like you still need a little bit more time, like late 2020s for that. Hangover 2 was so awful that it basically killed the franchise. Besides, Todd Phillips said he's not doing comedies anymore because "grr liberals bad"

 

(btw none of y'all on this board are going to use that as a springboard to whine about how wokeness is bad and progressives are evil. don't even try it)

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

First instinct was Friday but Ice Cube is at odds with WB/New Line and the last one in 2002 did only 33m. Barbershop in 2016 did 54m, not exactly inspiring. There's been talks of a third Shanghai film but Knights made 60m (while first made 54m). Rush Hour is worth the risk as both a comeback for Tucker and Jackie. The 3rd pulled off 140m in a crowded 2007 summer with Superbad, Chuck and Larry and Knocked Up. Ratner can't direct it, though. 

 

Obvious answer is a 23 Jump Street

[Eric Loves Rey]

2 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Obvious answer is a 23 Jump Street

Still mad that MIB 23 never materialized. They really wasted the time of all parties with it in development hell and now Sony has two dead franchises.

[Legion Again]

11 minutes ago, Eric Riley said:

Besides, Todd Phillips said he's not doing comedies anymore because "grr liberals bad"

 

(btw none of y'all on this board are going to use that as a springboard to whine about how wokeness is bad and progressives are evil. don't even try it)

If you don’t want people to talk about this stuff (which I agree with!) why even throw the first volley? Just feels sketchy to implicit take a position+tell people not to talk about it in the same breath.