BestPicturePlutoNash Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, Eric the Shark said: I mean...I guess? And I can see a Screenplay nom. But like you said, Universal has higher priorities and something like Bridesmaids, which had way more going for it, couldn't land Best Picture. This getting to BP feels like a stretch IMO. Bridesmaids probably gets nominated in a year of 10. That was back when under 10 films were eligible Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted August 31, 2022 Author Share Posted August 31, 2022 Meanwhile, while the reviews are fine overall, it does seem like White Noise won't really have the passion to get in for Best Picture (or any acting noms given how no one's really getting much in the way of standout mentions for it). I'm guessing one or both of Bardo and Glass Onion will be their bigger pushes now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 15 minutes ago, filmlover said: Bros is definitely, at best, Universal's #3 push should it end up with awards buzz (behind drama contenders The Fabelmans and She Said). Maybe a Globes thing (key word being "maybe" since they've always been mostly averse to Apatow's brand of comedies and who knows what this "new and improved" HFPA will go for), but that's it unless the movie becomes a too-big-to-ignore sensation (although we already have Everything Everywhere and Top Gun scratching that particular itch) and/or contenders start to drop like flies. It's easily a higher priority than She Said which is only a NYFF premiere and not even gala or main slate. It's going to make like twice as much money too, and I don't think reviews will be that far off either Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted August 31, 2022 Author Share Posted August 31, 2022 1 minute ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said: It's easily a higher priority than She Said which is only a NYFF premiere and not even gala or main slate. It's going to make like twice as much money too, and I don't think reviews will be that far off either Ok. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 1 minute ago, filmlover said: Ok. I just don't see how it isn't obvious? NYFF is hardly an ideal launch for Best Picture. It would be at Telluride or TIFF if Universal was confident in it. the red flags are there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted August 31, 2022 Author Share Posted August 31, 2022 (edited) 14 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said: I just don't see how it isn't obvious? NYFF is hardly an ideal launch for Best Picture. It would be at Telluride or TIFF if Universal was confident in it. the red flags are there This seems like overthinking it lol. It's possible She Said gets a tepid reception (although having read the book it's based on, it would take Uwe Boll-level hacks to make an uninteresting movie out of this material), but the lack of TIFF or Telluride play isn't some world-ending fiasco that you're making it out to be (especially when we're talking about what's destined to be one of the most controversial releases of the year in any circumstance). Bros is bowing at TIFF because, yes, it is a fall release with commercial (and maybe awards) potential and the studio has faith in it, but that happens to studio releases every year, so this isn't some particularly unique scenario. And we'll see how far its commercial appeal extends because as of right now, Box Office Pro's September article indicate that the first tracking number might disappoint your clearly high expectations come Friday when it's released (obviously they have little to go on given how few LGBTQ studio releases there have been but they seem confident it's making less than Brokeback Mountain's $83M total). So I guess what I'm saying is...can we chill for a second? Heh. The Biggest Movies Coming to Theaters in September 2022 - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com) Edited August 31, 2022 by filmlover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 I have very little inside intel this year outside of Till and Bros, and by the account I have Bros is hysterical, crowd pleasing, and a real threat to win the Audience Award at Toronto, which would put it on the fast track for a Picture nom. I was on the fence about including it but I just think that the typical Venice/Telluride lineup of Oscar contenders is sooo weak - White Noise is meh, Bardo is going to be divisive as is the Whale, Empire of Light and The Son don't look so hot - most of the fi;ms I am high on are at TIFF or NYFF this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted August 31, 2022 Author Share Posted August 31, 2022 First impression of The Son from the trailer is that it reminds me of Beautiful Boy for some reason lol. Who knows, maybe it's just an odd trailer that doesn't fairly represent the movie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 54 minutes ago, filmlover said: This seems like overthinking it lol. It's possible She Said gets a tepid reception (although having read the book it's based on, it would take Uwe Boll-level hacks to make an uninteresting movie out of this material), but the lack of TIFF or Telluride play isn't some world-ending fiasco that you're making it out to be (especially when we're talking about what's destined to be one of the most controversial releases of the year in any circumstance). Bros is bowing at TIFF because, yes, it is a fall release with commercial (and maybe awards) potential and the studio has faith in it, but that happens to studio releases every year, so this isn't some particularly unique scenario. And we'll see how far its commercial appeal extends because as of right now, Box Office Pro's September article indicate that the first tracking number might disappoint your clearly high expectations come Friday when it's released (obviously they have little to go on given how few LGBTQ studio releases there have been but they seem confident it's making less than Brokeback Mountain's $83M total). So I guess what I'm saying is...can we chill for a second? Heh. The Biggest Movies Coming to Theaters in September 2022 - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com) I don't care what BoxOfficePro predicts and forecasts about tracking. You keep mentioning the She Said book as if it's like sacred text, but adaptations can fall short. And based on history and stats of BP noms and their fest premieres, there's no overthinking the fact this movie has an underwhelming festival plan and Universal doesn't get multiple BP noms in a single year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted August 31, 2022 Author Share Posted August 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said: I don't care what BoxOfficePro predicts and forecasts about tracking. They're usually good at gauging interest though (especially as we get closer to release). Just saying, if it makes $50-70M total (which IMO would be really solid total for a comedy, a genre that has largely dried up at the multiplex in recent years, and especially one with virtually zero star power), don't be too disappointed. But that's another topic altogether (in fact just linked the September preview in the tracking thread so any continuation of this discussion probably belongs there). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 I think people in general tend to read too much in what debuts where. It used to be consensus that not going to Telluride/Venice for the more populist Toronto was a bad sign but I don't think the evidence bears that out. And plenty of big movies have premiered at NYFF too. I am not quite sold on She Said because I can't imagine even Hollywood being that dense and self-rewarding, but from what I hear Till is a major, real awards play and that's NYFF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted August 31, 2022 Author Share Posted August 31, 2022 (edited) BTW Focus has released the first image from Spoiler Alert and tomorrow is when the full Telluride announcement will be released so we probably shouldn't rule out, given the timing, the possibility that it's premiering there this weekend (there's already soft confirmations that Empire of Light and Women Talking will be screening there). Edited August 31, 2022 by filmlover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted August 31, 2022 Author Share Posted August 31, 2022 Noah Baumbach’s Netflix-backed “White Noise” starring Adam Driver and Greta Gerwig was met with a tepid 150-second standing ovation, a short smattering of applause on the Lido.https://t.co/SxuGMw2UOo — Variety (@Variety) August 31, 2022 This headline feels pretty shady heh. But it does seem like this isn't really going to amount to much based on reactions/reviews. Next! (TAR and Bardo are tomorrow) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted August 31, 2022 Author Share Posted August 31, 2022 (edited) NYFF schedule has been posted and we can expect reviews/reactions for Till on October 1st and She Said on the 13th. Think those are the only big premieres there that won't have previously been shown at any of the other festivals. Time to start guessing what will be bowing at AFI in early November (imagine if they had the Black Panther premiere there to prove how serious they are again). Edited August 31, 2022 by filmlover 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 (edited) 18 hours ago, Cmasterclay said: Quick Pre-Fest Predictions Actor Austin Butler, Elvis Tom Cruise, Top Gun Maverick Hugh Jackman, The Son Jeremy Pope, The Inspection Bill Nighy, Living I loved the movie and his performance, but no way in hell will the Oscars nominate Cruise for this. Edited August 31, 2022 by Maggie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted August 31, 2022 Author Share Posted August 31, 2022 (edited) I can totally see Cruise being one of those random SAG nominations that happens because they love popular stuff (Golden Globes is highly unlikely after he gave his three awards back to them since they've always liked to nominate people they know will show up to the ceremony). But yeah, I doubt he happens at the Oscars unless the field becomes completely barren. I'm thinking Top Gun will end up matching Ford v Ferrari's Oscar number of nominations with four (Picture, Editing, Sound) with an Original Song nom replacing the additional Sound category that no longer exists. Edited August 31, 2022 by filmlover 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 So, question about Best Picture category. Is it imperative that they nominate 10 movies or maximum 10 movies....it can be 7,8... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted August 31, 2022 Author Share Posted August 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Maggie said: So, question about Best Picture category. Is it imperative that they nominate 10 movies or maximum 10 movies....it can be 7,8... The rules have gone back to as they were when they first expanded the category in 2009/2010 that they nominate a solid 10 movies. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 Lots of sequels are in the mix this year for that popular movie they'll surely nominate if they want viewers. Avatar2, TG2, Knives Out2, Black Panther 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
35MM-18 Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 Bardo's dead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
