Maggie Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 It's gonna be a bloodbath between all these popular sequels. Knives Out 2 - already getting amazing reviews. TG2 Black panther 2 - let's see, but that trailer was amazing. Avatar 2 - It's Jim, so you know it's gonna be great Not all these will be nominated. I wonder if The Academy will snub TG2 and/or Avatar 2. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interiorgatordecorator Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 47 minutes ago, Maggie said: It's gonna be a bloodbath between all these popular sequels. Knives Out 2 - already getting amazing reviews. TG2 Black panther 2 - let's see, but that trailer was amazing. Avatar 2 - It's Jim, so you know it's gonna be great Not all these will be nominated. I wonder if The Academy will snub TG2 and/or Avatar 2. knives out 2 has the exact same reviews as #1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 51 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said: knives out 2 has the exact same reviews as #1 ...and the first one wasn't nominated. I get it. I wonder tho which of these four will be nominated. It can't be all four Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddroast Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 So the fabelmans is the frontrunner? Interesting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddroast Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 4 hours ago, Maggie said: ...and the first one wasn't nominated. I get it. I wonder tho which of these four will be nominated. It can't be all four If I had to rank most likely to least likely TG2 Glass onion Avatar 2 BP2 Ratings may change at least 3 will get in and it all comes down to who Chapek wants to put his money on. If BP2 gets stronger reviews than avatar 2 then it gets the slot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 19, 2022 Author Share Posted September 19, 2022 On paper Avatar is probably the easiest sell to the Academy since the original was clearly a Top 5 contender that year, but Top Gun is the one most likely to appeal to older members, who still make up a majority of voters. Knives Out and Black Panther have bigger hurdles to overcome: the former's predecessor only received a Screenplay nomination despite being one of the bigger box office success stories that year and as we all know, this one will see a 100% decrease due to the fact it's barely going to play in theaters, while the latter was clearly in the bottom half of that year's Picture nominees and the sequel is going to have expectations placed upon it that are partially due to circumstances beyond their control. With the way contenders have been dropping like flies left and right, it's not outside the realm of possibility all four get nominated if everything goes right for them, but I wouldn't bet on it happening in the end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Updated list The Fabelmans Everything Everywhere All at Once Babylon Women Talking The Banshees of Inisherin The Woman King All Quiet on the Western Front TAR Black panther 2 Decision to Leave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddroast Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 39 minutes ago, Maggie said: Updated list The Fabelmans Everything Everywhere All at Once Babylon Women Talking The Banshees of Inisherin The Woman King All Quiet on the Western Front TAR Black panther 2 Decision to Leave What's keeping avatar 2 and top gun 2 off the list? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, Reddroast said: What's keeping avatar 2 and top gun 2 off the list? I think Wakanda is gonna take TG2's place. Avatar, i don't know...i could see it nominated Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 30 minutes ago, Reddroast said: What's keeping avatar 2 and top gun 2 off the list? they spent months years in the top gun 2 thread going "hmmm, aw jeez i dunno maybe this movie won't do so well" and that obviously didn't pay off so they've moved the act here. So top gun is winning best picture. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddroast Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: they spent months years in the top gun 2 thread going "hmmm, aw jeez i dunno maybe this movie won't do so well" and that obviously didn't pay off so they've moved the act here. So top gun is winning best picture. Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Guys, i loved the movie and i want it nominated, but i have doubts. There's just too much competition between the popular movies. They can't nominate them all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TMP Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 10 hours ago, Maggie said: Guys, i loved the movie and i want it nominated, but i have doubts. There's just too much competition between the popular movies. They can't nominate them all It’s more likely to win best picture than not get nominated lmfao 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 20, 2022 Author Share Posted September 20, 2022 Top Gun is arguably one of the safer movies at this point between being considered a huge achievement (the rare sequel that definitely surpasses the original) and becoming such a sensation following a few years worth of delays, in what's looking to be a very unusual year in terms of contenders. IMO we have a pretty clear 7 spots taken already (Babylon, Banshees, Everything Everywhere, Fabelmans, TAR, Top Gun, Women Talking) and three spots open that could go to a combination of only a handful of movies that still seem to have a somewhat realistic shot (Avatar, Black Panther, Elvis, Glass Onion, She Said, The Whale, The Woman King). Everything else is either already proven to be a nonstarter or unlikely to have the passion necessary to survive another four months until nominations. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 On 9/19/2022 at 5:06 PM, CoolioD1 said: they spent months years in the top gun 2 thread going "hmmm, aw jeez i dunno maybe this movie won't do so well" and that obviously didn't pay off so they've moved the act here. So top gun is winning best picture. 21 hours ago, TMP said: It’s more likely to win best picture than not get nominated lmfao 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric the IF Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 Yeah honestly I'm thinking a Top Gun win's gonna happen. Both in a "the Oscar bait movies did pretty trash this year" perspective and in a "vote for the cultural phenomenon that represents everything great about movies" perspective. Honestly, it's been a while since we've had a Titanic/Return of the King-style Best Picture win and the wait has been long enough to do it again, especially to something nobody will really object to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandias Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 I don't think it will win but I could support a Top Gun win just for the content it would produce. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 21, 2022 Author Share Posted September 21, 2022 Top Gun will need to pick up something above the tech line to have a shot at winning, but it's hard to imagine where it would easily be nominated. Actor? A question of "will Tom campaign?" Director? Kosinski did a great job but it's no secret Cruise was the strongest creative voice behind the movie. Adapted Screenplay? It's a dead category this year, but I doubt any of the sequels make it besides Glass Onion (both Avatar and Black Panther were snubbed in Screenplay their respective years). My Ford v Ferrari comparison from earlier still stands, just replace the second Sound category with Original Song. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoxOfficeFangrl Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 7 hours ago, The Eric King said: Honestly, it's been a while since we've had a Titanic/Return of the King-style Best Picture win and the wait has been long enough to do it again, especially to something nobody will really object to. Film Twitter strenuously objects to being called "nobody", LOL. It would be wild if Spielberg makes his Most Personal Movie Ever and loses to a summer blockbuster, of all things. As much as a Top Gun movie would be a departure from recent Oscar trends, the first Best Picture winner was Wings... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 (edited) Tom can easily clinch the 5th Actor spot with no campaigning. That can be Top Gun's above the line nomination, and honestly, Kosinski is probably Top 10 in Director after so many festival films flopped. Edited September 21, 2022 by WrathOfHan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
