Best Picture Predictions: 2022

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Universal has gotten multiple BP noms once during expanded lineup. IIRC, these have been their only BP noms since 09:

 

2019:

1917

 

2018:

Green Book

 

2017:

Get Out

 

2012:

Les Mis

If we want to extend that to their Focus branch, they did manage two Best Picture nominees in 2017 (Darkest Hour and Phantom Thread).

 

Speaking of Focus, they aren't going to TIFF this year despite having three potential contenders from notable filmmakers (Todd Field, James Gray, Michael Showalter) in the mix. Although with its release date I imagine Armageddon Time is getting an NYFF premiere, and it seems likely Spoiler Alert will bow there too since it was shot in New York and should be ready by then.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

If we want to extend that to their Focus branch, they did manage two Best Picture nominees in 2017 (Darkest Hour and Phantom Thread).

 

Speaking of Focus, they aren't going to TIFF this year despite having three potential contenders from notable filmmakers (Todd Field, James Gray, Michael Showalter) in the mix. Although with its release date I imagine Armageddon Time is getting an NYFF premiere, and it seems likely Spoiler Alert will bow there too since it was shot in New York and should be ready by then.

Focus and Universal are different branches so they don't count

 

I think TAR and Armageddon will go to Telluride and probably TAR is a NYFF gala after the Venice premiere. I don't think Gray will be, they can put him in main slate.

 

Spoiler Alert seems too middlebrow for the NY crowd. Maybe AFI or added to TIFF/Telluride later

[cannastop]

https://www.indiewire.com/2022/07/oscars-2023-best-picture-predictions-1234734247/

 

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” and Del Toro's "Pinocchio" are both long shots for best picture according to Indiewire.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

4 minutes ago, cannastop said:

https://www.indiewire.com/2022/07/oscars-2023-best-picture-predictions-1234734247/

 

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” and Del Toro's "Pinocchio" are both long shots for best picture according to Indiewire.

Pinocchio is a long shot but Everything Everywhere will not miss. Indiewire always underrates genre films. Did the same with Promising Young Woman. I don't even like the movie but I cannot see how it misses

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

The Inspection received the Closing Night spot at NYFF, therefore She Said would be main slate. I can't think of a non gala NYFF WP that received any Oscar noms besides Bridge of Spies (I think Lincoln was gala or secret screening?). Either way, yeah I continue to not feel this movie under any circumstance

[Eric Duncan]

 

[lorddemaxus]

19 minutes ago, Eric the Extra-Terrestrial said:

 

Pretty sure the studio buys this award, but this is still funny. Don't know who most of the cast is and the two biggest stars have been in like one other thing.

[filmlover]

4 hours ago, Eric the Extra-Terrestrial said:

 

lol attempting to bait the Styles stans for headlines.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Despite rumors, She Said is not NYFF main slate. Perhaps a special event. Also absent are Fabelmans, The Whale, The Son, Women Talking, and Bones and All

 

White Noise – Dir. Noah Baumbach

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed – Dir. Laura Poitras

The Inspection – Dir. Elegance Bratton

Armageddon Time – Dir. James Gray

Aftersun – Dir. Charlotte Wells

Alcarràs – Dir. Carla Simón

All That Breathes – Dir. Shaunak Sen

Corsage – Dir. Marie Kreutzer

A Couple – Dir. Frederick Wiseman

De Humani Corporis Fabrica – Dir. Véréna Paravel and Lucien Castaing-Taylor

Decision to Leave – Dir. Park Chan-wook

Descendant – Dir. Margaret Brown

Enys Men – Dir. Mark Jenkin

EO – Dir. Jerzy Skolimowski

The Eternal Daughter – Dir. Joanna Hogg

Master Gardener – Dir. Paul Schrader

No Bears – Dir. Jafar Panahi

The Novelist’s Film – Dir. Hong Sangsoo

One Fine Morning – Dir. Mia Hansen-Løve

Pacifiction – Dir. Albert Serra

R.M.N. – Dir. Cristian Mungiu

Return to Seoul – Dir. Davy Chou

Saint Omer – Dir. Alice Diop

Scarlet - Dir. Pietro Marcello

Showing Up – Dir. Kelly Reichardt

Stars at Noon – Dir. Claire Denis

Stonewalling – Dir. Huang Ji and Ryuji Otsuka

TÁR – Dir. Todd Field

Trenque Lauquen – Dir. Laura Citarella

Triangle of Sadness – Dir. Ruben Östlund

Unrest – Dir. Cyril Schäublin

Walk Up – Dir. Hong Sangsoo

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

Maybe the Live Action Short category will be spared tape delay this time...

 

 

 

Quote

The 14-minute production (watch it here), which Swift wrote and directed a decade after the release of her massively acclaimed power ballad “All Too Well,” screened at the AMC Lincoln Square for one week last fall, from Nov. 12 (the day of its premiere there) through Nov. 18. And while that timing would have precluded it from this season’s best picture race, which requires a release within the calendar year preceding the Oscars ceremony, it works just fine for the best live action short race. The eligibility window of which began on Oct. 1, 2021 and runs through Sept. 30.

TIL... Tay Tay's gonna win an Oscar before Jake, and for a video to the breakup song she wrote about him! J/k, I think a lot of rank and file AMPAS members will say it belongs at the VMAs and go for other things.

 

And the Academy decided Good Luck To You, Leo Grande is Oscar eligible after all:

 

 

[filmlover]

12 hours ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Maybe the Live Action Short category will be spared tape delay this time...

 

 

 

TIL... Tay Tay's gonna win an Oscar before Jake, and for a video to the breakup song she wrote about him! J/k, I think a lot of rank and file AMPAS members will say it belongs at the VMAs and go for other things.

 

And the Academy decided Good Luck To You, Leo Grande is Oscar eligible after all:

 

 

Taylor trying to become a double nominee in the same year between this and Amsterdam lol.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

35 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Taylor trying to become a double nominee in the same year between this and Amsterdam lol.

A triple nominee, if the Crawdads song happens, too (probably not though).

[filmlover]

4 hours ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

A triple nominee, if the Crawdads song happens, too (probably not though).

At the Golden Globes (now that they've risen from the ashes), maybe.

[filmlover]

She Said officially premiering at NYFF under the Spotlight section.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

32 minutes ago, filmlover said:

She Said officially premiering at NYFF under the Spotlight section.

RIP

[JustLurking]

She Said will probably be an award player based on the subject matter (even though I think it's pretty hypocritical of Hollywood to be making this film so soon when the problem is far from fixed), but I doubt it will win much. The trailer didn't look great and it feels to be going for something too similar to Spotlight, which has already won "recently", I doubt they'll go for it again.

 

Though just for the record, I was dead wrong on Spotlight too. I liked the film but it was probably my least favorite of the nominees and didn't think it would take it. So maybe I'll just be dead wrong again.

[filmlover]

Quote

 

A year after eight Academy Award statuettes were controversially presented prior to the live Oscars telecast in an effort to shorten the length of the show, which ultimately failed, it looks increasingly likely that all 23 categories will again be treated equally moving forward.

 

Bill Kramer, the Academy’s new CEO, signaled as much in an interview with the organization’s digital magazine, a.Frame, that posted Tuesday, saying he would like to see “all artistic and scientific disciplines honored on the show” and that “we need to produce an Oscars show that celebrates the collaborative work of the industry.”

 

Oscars: All Categories Could Return to Live Show, Academy CEO Says – The Hollywood Reporter

 

Praise the lord.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

So, three movies this year have to deal with their Brad Pitt baggage... Maybe his team will try to spin it that he wanted atone for his own misdeeds and work through his regrets by producing stories like She Said and Women Talking. That doesn't seem to be the leaning of his PR people at the moment, however. And Team Babylon might want to soft launch the Diego Calva push any second now...

[WittyUsername]

54 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

So, three movies this year have to deal with their Brad Pitt baggage... Maybe his team will try to spin it that he wanted atone for his own misdeeds and work through his regrets by producing stories like She Said and Women Talking. That doesn't seem to be the leaning of his PR people at the moment, however. And Team Babylon might want to soft launch the Diego Calva push any second now...

The odds of Brad Pitt and his team admitting to any misdeeds on his part seem pretty much slim to none. They’ll probably just take a page out of a certain other actor’s playbook, and much of the Internet will rally behind him. 
 

As for the movies he’s producing, She Said seems like it only would’ve stood a chance  as a pat on the back moment for the Academy. Not sure about Women Talking and Blonde, though. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

The Pitt issue will be a nonfactor. He is still clearly beloved in the industry, has goodwill from Plan B, and Babylon will be a major contender. He literally won an acting OScar for playing a wife murderer in a divisive QT film