Best Picture Predictions: 2022

[Joel M]

14 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Knives Out is probably making Golden Globe + WGA + ACE (won't rule out SAG Ensemble, either) and that alone puts it on a path for BP in a 10 year field.

 

It gets all those even without the overwhelming positive buzz of the first one? I think that's a lot of assuming. The first one wouldn't get anywhere near the oscar convo without everything absolutely going its way. Huge box office success, almost shocking critical success, a ton of good will for Johnson after a subset of Star Wars fans made him their new villain. And it still just got a screenplay nom and maybe would have gotten a BP nom in a field of 10. 

[WrathOfHan]

16 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Jordan Ruimy having a total meltdown over Women Talking, lol

If Nope gets any nominations he will have an even bigger meltdown  

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

6 hours ago, Joel M said:

 

It gets all those even without the overwhelming positive buzz of the first one?

Yes

[Ezen Baklattan]

18 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Jordan Ruimy having a total meltdown over Women Talking, lol

It could ne either the movie or just women talking in general.  

[filmlover]

Colin Farrell wins Best Actor and Cate Blanchett wins Best Actress at Venice.

[4815162342]

21 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Colin Farrell wins Best Actor and Cate Blanchett wins Best Actress at Venice.

 

Banshees also wins Screenplay at Venice

[filmlover]

Banshees has definitely confirmed itself as a major contender now.

[WrathOfHan]

Causeway's getting good reviews. We'll see if it goes anywhere beyond JLaw/BTH.

 

Also, Women Talking's TIFF reception is a lot more muted than Telluride and the RT score is freefalling. There's already pundit backlash too.

[Joel M]

18 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Yes

 

Ok, I hope you 're right. Infinately prefer for Netflix to push this into BP than White Noise or flop Bardo. At least the critical reception doesn't seem far off from the original in early reactions. We just have to see If the buzz is gonna linger enough without a proper theatrical release. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

4 hours ago, Joel M said:

 

Ok, I hope you 're right. Infinately prefer for Netflix to push this into BP than White Noise or flop Bardo. At least the critical reception doesn't seem far off from the original in early reactions. We just have to see If the buzz is gonna linger enough without a proper theatrical release. 

Well I hope I'm wrong, but it just seems like a broadly appealing film with strong enough reviews and simple path with precursors

[Ezen Baklattan]

Globe Predictions cause why not?

 

BEST PICTURE (DRAMA)

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

The Fabelmans

TAR

Women Talking

 

BEST PICTURE (COMEDY/MUSICAL)

Bros

Everything Everywhere All At Once

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Triangle of Sadness

White Noise

 

BEST ACTOR (DRAMA)

Austin Butler (Elvis)

Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Brendan Fraser (The Whale)

Hugh Jackman (The Son)

Harry Styles (My Policeman)

 

BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA)

Naomi Ackie (I Wanna Dance With Somebody)

Jessica Chastain (The Good Nurse)

Cate Blanchett (TAR)

Olivia Colman (Empire of Light)

Margot Robbie (Babylon)

 

BEST ACTOR (COMEDY/MUSICAL)

Daniel Craig (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)

Adam Driver (White Noise)

Billy Eichner (Bros)

Ralph Fiennes (The Menu)

Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto)

 

BEST ACTRESS (COMEDY/MUSICAL)

Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris)

Julia Roberts (Ticket to Paradise)

Anya Taylor-Joy (The Menu)

Emma Thompson (Good Luck To You, Leo Grande)

Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)

Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Michael Ward (Empire of Light)*

Ben Whishaw (Women Talking)

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jessie Buckley (Women Talking)

Laura Dern (The Son)

Claire Foy (Women Talking)

Sadie Sink (The Whale)

Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)

 

BEST DIRECTOR

Damien Chazelle (Babylon)

Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Todd Field (TAR)

Sam Mendes (Empire of Light)

Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

 

BEST SCREENPLAY

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All At Once

The Fabelmans

TAR

Women Talking

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Avatar: The Way of Water

Empire of Light

The Fabelmans

Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

Women Talking

 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

"Carolina" (Where The Crawdads Sing)

"Hold My Hand" (Top Gun: Maverick)

"Keep Rising" (The Woman King)

"Top of the World" (Lyle Lyle Crocodile)

**Placeholder for a song from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever**

 

BEST INTERNATINOAL FEATURE

All Quiet on the Western Front

Bardo

Broker

Decision to Leave

Holy Spider

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Strange World

Turning Red

Wendell and Wild

[filmlover]

Doubt anyone expected it to go anywhere but My Policeman is DOA (back to the music world full time you go, Harry Styles). The Good Nurse is also getting really good notices, though sounds like a SAG only thing at best. It seems like TIFF has had the most success out of all the festivals with their world premieres this year, no? Almost everything seems to have its fans and as far as I know the only remaining world premieres there are Devotion (today) and The Greatest Beer Run Ever (tomorrow).

[interiorgatordecorator]

13 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Doubt anyone expected it to go anywhere but My Policeman is DOA (back to the music world full time you go, Harry Styles). The Good Nurse is also getting really good notices, though sounds like a SAG only thing at best. It seems like TIFF has had the most success out of all the festivals with their world premieres this year, no? Almost everything seems to have its fans and as far as I know the only remaining world premieres there are Devotion (today) and The Greatest Beer Run Ever (tomorrow).

 

the combo of banshees + tar + the divisive blonde seem much better than anything tiff has shown

Edited September 12, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[Ezen Baklattan]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Doubt anyone expected it to go anywhere but My Policeman is DOA (back to the music world full time you go, Harry Styles). The Good Nurse is also getting really good notices, though sounds like a SAG only thing at best. It seems like TIFF has had the most success out of all the festivals with their world premieres this year, no? Almost everything seems to have its fans and as far as I know the only remaining world premieres there are Devotion (today) and The Greatest Beer Run Ever (tomorrow).

On one hand I think it's the exact kind of starfucking that used to be the HFPA's bread and butter, but on the other they have shown a bit more restraint these past few years.

 

Idk where GBRE will go (and could maybe even see Banshees get frauded into Comedy/Musical too?) but things could happen there.

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, Ezen Baklattan said:

On one hand I think it's the exact kind of starfucking that used to be the HFPA's bread and butter, but on the other they have shown a bit more restraint these past few years.

 

Idk where GBRE will go (and could maybe even see Banshees get frauded into Comedy/Musical too?) but things could happen there.

One has to imagine that the HFPA will ease on the ass-kissing for at least this year now that they're trying to become "uncancelled."

[SLAM!]

The Good Nurse starts at a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score with seven reviews so far, with Chastain and Redmayne both getting praise. Unfortunately one of the reviews says the screenplay is thin. We’re still searching for answers as to what’s happening to Adapted Screenplay but it seems like this might not be a contender there.

[stripe]

Bolded my predictions

 

Solid chances (praised and/or succesful films)

• Fabelmans
• Elvis
• EEAAO
• Maverick
• Banshees of Inisherin

Possible (already seen movies with buzz)

• Bones and All
• The Whale
• Women Talking
• Triangle of sadness
• TAR
• White Noise
• Knives Out 2

Dificult (already seen, mild or solid but not passionate reactions)

• Armageddon Time
• The son
• Empire of Light
• Thirteen Lives
• Nope
• Blonde

Unseen but potential game changers

• She said
• Amsterdam
• Babylon
• Avatar: The way of water
• I wanna dance with somebody

 

Alt. TAR

 

[stripe]

29 minutes ago, SLAM! said:

The Good Nurse starts at a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score with seven reviews so far, with Chastain and Redmayne both getting praise. Unfortunately one of the reviews says the screenplay is thin. We’re still searching for answers as to what’s happening to Adapted Screenplay but it seems like this might not be a contender there.

 

Reviews are not rotten, but neither are stellar... Still too early though

[interiorgatordecorator]

https://www.metacritic.com/movie/the-greatest-beer-run-ever?ref=hp

 

beer run starts with 25 on mc

 

film critics really are a bunch on pompous asses

and here I was thinking review-bombing was meant solely for us the unwashed masses

every reaction ive seen from a functional human being (so no critics) seems to imply that the movie is ok to good, but here come the so called enlightend ones to tell us why it being "politically cowardly" means its a 1/5

Edited September 14, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[filmlover]

Top Gun will have no problem getting nominated at this point with the way the festivals have been shaping up and all the contenders that have already established themselves as weak this early in the season (none of The Whale/The Son/Empire of Light are above 80% on RT after doing at least two major festivals each so far...and the latter two movies are only a few points away from turning Rotten). Hopefully everything bowing at NYFF/BFI/AFI and the titles that will be likely held until around the time they release in November and December deliver otherwise it's going to be a year made up mostly of "filler" nominees.