filmlover Posted September 21, 2022 Author Share Posted September 21, 2022 12 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: Tom can easily clinch the 5th Actor spot with no campaigning. That can be Top Gun's above the line nomination, and honestly, Kosinski is probably Top 10 in Director after so many festival films flopped. Cruise happening at SAG wouldn't surprise me since they love nominating both popular stuff and veterans (which he is having been around in the industry for 40 years) so that's one precursor that might be on his side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 (edited) Looking at the other contenders fighting for the fifth spot... Jackman: In a highly divisive film that will turn voters off Driver: Would likely be contingent on a Picture nomination for White Noise Chalamet: In a graphic horror movie that will probably fare better with other branches Calva: Lesser known lead in a late breaking contender, which usually doesn't work out for smaller names Ward: Lesser known lead in a freefalling contender Kaluuya: If Lupita didn't do it for Us with a SAG nom, he won't do it for much more subdued work in Nope LaBelle/Repeta: Young Actor nominees aren't a thing anymore So I dunno, Cruise makes pretty damn good sense right now unless Searchlight wants to keep Gleeson in lead (who would probably be over Nighy in fourth). Edited September 21, 2022 by WrathOfHan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 21, 2022 Author Share Posted September 21, 2022 43 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: Looking at the other contenders fighting for the fifth spot... Jackman: In a highly divisive film that will turn voters off Driver: Would likely be contingent on a Picture nomination for White Noise Chalamet: In a graphic horror movie that will probably fare better with other branches Calva: Lesser known lead in a late breaking contender, which usually doesn't work out for smaller names Ward: Lesser known lead in a freefalling contender Kaluuya: If Lupita didn't do it for Us with a SAG nom, he won't do it for much more subdued work in Nope LaBelle/Repeta: Young Actor nominees aren't a thing anymore So I dunno, Cruise makes pretty damn good sense right now unless Searchlight wants to keep Gleeson in lead (who would probably be over Nighy in fourth). Their movies sound more like Golden Globes things than Oscar players but there's also Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto) and Jim Parsons (Spoiler Alert) for their year-end releases in the running until they are actually seen. The rumors of Emancipation coming out this year after all would easily put Smith in strong contention for an afterglow nom, if not for the fact his image suffered severe damage at the same ceremony where he just won his Oscar (and being banned from attending for a decade because of it). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 Top Gun is not winning Screenplay or Acting or Directing (frankly, great chance it's not nominated for any of these). Even Gladiator won Actor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 27, 2022 Author Share Posted September 27, 2022 Napoleon was officially confirmed for this year yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Could Top Gun Maverick not only get nominated but pull out the win? This seems to be a weak year for Oscar bait with The Fablemans being the front runner but Spielberg has already been awarded 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, John Marston said: Could Top Gun Maverick not only get nominated but pull out the win? This seems to be a weak year for Oscar bait with The Fablemans being the front runner but Spielberg has already been awarded yeah it's winning. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, John Marston said: Could Top Gun Maverick not only get nominated but pull out the win? This seems to be a weak year for Oscar bait with The Fablemans being the front runner but Spielberg has already been awarded I can’t take credit for this opinion, but I agree with someone who said, “Maverick is more likely to win than it is to not be nominated.” I think it’s possible! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 hour ago, John Marston said: Could Top Gun Maverick not only get nominated but pull out the win? No. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 It's between The Fabelmans and Babylon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAJK Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 (edited) On 9/18/2022 at 6:36 AM, filmlover said: Best Picture has usually ended up going to an underdog in recent years but this is shaping up to be the first year in a while where it's looking like nothing will have the passion necessary to take down the frontrunner since very few movies have emerged from the festivals as solid contenders (Banshees, TAR, and Women Talking are the only other movies to have a strong consensus to them that bowed in recent weeks). Maybe everything that hasn't been seen yet will deliver a surprise but as of now it seems more likely than not that Spielberg is coming for his second Best Picture win. The producers are also apparently looking to explore streaming options this year instead of trying to bring back 40 million viewers. Also good to see that they're looking to make the show about the nominees again because nobody's here for the lame stabs at social media brownie points like the hosts complaining about how long The Power of the Dog was. Oscars Show Needs To Be “Reinvigorated”, Academy Admits – Deadline True but people did say that about Power of the Dog last year, and then CODA came in with the win. So... Edited September 29, 2022 by DAJK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 29, 2022 Author Share Posted September 29, 2022 2 hours ago, DAJK said: True but people did say that about Power of the Dog last year, and then CODA came in with the win. So... Most of the contenders have been seen and there is no CODA in sight to surprise everyone this year lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAJK Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 1 hour ago, filmlover said: Most of the contenders have been seen and there is no CODA in sight to surprise everyone this year lol. Fair, but as of September last year, did many people even think that CODA was a "CODA in sight to surprise everyone"? Like, the film was very well-received sure. But this time last year, it was really only discussed (by most) as a potential contender. Not the front-runner or even a possible upset. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Already talking in September about what movie wins BP Oscar in March? We never learn... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 29, 2022 Author Share Posted September 29, 2022 8 hours ago, DAJK said: Fair, but as of September last year, did many people even think that CODA was a "CODA in sight to surprise everyone"? Like, the film was very well-received sure. But this time last year, it was really only discussed (by most) as a potential contender. Not the front-runner or even a possible upset. Sure, but but this is an odd year where I really couldn't tell you what the frontrunners are beyond the obvious titles (Fabelmans, Babylon) or the ones that are already hits and would hardly be underdogs (Everything Everywhere, Top Gun), especially after so many contenders dropped like flies even for a Best Picture nomination at the festivals. Only thing anyone should be certain about is that a major theatrical release is likely taking home the top prize (as it stands the nominees are probably going to be all from theatrical studios, which puts to bed the notion of the theater experience being dead). 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 I agree this year should be the celebration of theatrical releases. That's why movies like Fabelmans, EEAAO, TG2, Elvis and (possibly) Babylon will be undoubtedly in the conversation for Best Picture. And watch out if BP2 or Avatar 2 are great! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 (edited) After seeing White Noise, I doubt it misses Screenplay, and it probably has a good shot at Score and Production Design nominations. Driver deserves to get nominated but idk if the acting branch will hop on board with that performance. It's a fringe contender; I wouldn't dismiss it yet. Bones and All is still my guess for the lone screenplay nominee, can't wait to see it in a few days. Edited October 3, 2022 by WrathOfHan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoxOfficeFangrl Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 Surprise! On last week's Little Gold Men podcast, a host was saying that Apple had too many contenders to save them all for 2023. Problem solved... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 http://thefilmexperience.net/best-picture/ I have always found interesting Nathaniel Rogers' predictions and he has just updated them. His top10 already includes Glass Onion and Wakanda Forever. Definitely this year could be full of popular films Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 The Fabelmans EEAAO Women Talking The banshees Tar Woman King She said The Whale Babylon Avatar 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
