Best Picture Predictions: 2022

[WrathOfHan]

lmao Bardo. There's our first presumed contender that's completely out of the running now (unless they're DYING to give Inarritu an International Feature nom)

Word on the street for months has been that Tár is incredible so not surprised at all by the reception. I'm keeping it in my Top 5.

I don't think White Noise is dead but I've never had it terribly high in my predicts. If it builds WOM over the next few months and more movies drop like Bardo flies this weekend, it could be a fringe nominee

[Carlangonz]

23 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

lmao Bardo. There's our first presumed contender that's completely out of the running now (unless they're DYING to give Inarritu an International Feature nom)

It still needs the nom from Mexican Academy and last year they showed the finger to Franco and New Order. I see them resisting just by the fact that is Iñarritu but they could go in favour of someone younger.

[filmlover]

So I guess Glass Onion is officially Netflix's #1 now?

 

[filmlover]

Also re: Telluride, Women Talking screens tomorrow while Empire of Light is on Saturday.

[filmlover]

I just realized that with Netflix's contenders looking weak and Apple and the other streamers not looking to have any strong horses in the race (although watch us underestimate Peter Farrelly again lmao) we might actually end up with an all-theatrical Best Picture line-up for the first time since 2017? Between that and all the non-tentpole box office hits we're seeing this year that would be a pretty loud and clear message of "you were saying?" to those claiming the theatrical experience is dead.

[SLAM!]

Watch out for a Netflix film that’s premiering at Telluride today. It’s The Wonder by Sebastián Lelio, who directed Gloria, Disobedience, A Fantastic Woman, and Gloria Bell. It’s a small-scale period piece but it’s in a position where if it’s any good it can become a bigger push for Netflix. Florence Pugh’s in the lead role.

 

Also with Netflix is The Swimmers, an inspiring refugee film opening Toronto that has lots of pundits hope-dicting it.

 

If things get really dicey for Netflix they can always just push Pinocchio really hard, hopefully make it the first animated Best Picture nominee since Toy Story 3, idk Netflix I’m just spitballing, your move 🤷‍♂️

Edited September 2, 2022 by SLAM!

[interiorgatordecorator]

shame about broker

wasnt amazing but I liked its messages and had some really nice moments

 

Edited September 2, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[Maggie]

Avatar2 or Elvis

Tar

Empire of Light

The Whale

Women Talking

Babylon

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

The Son

Triangle of Sadness

Edited September 3, 2022 by Maggie

[WrathOfHan]

Post-Venice/Telluride Pre-TIFF predicts:

Spoiler

Picture: 

 

1. The Fabelmans

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. TÁR

4. Women Talking

5. The Banshees of Inisherin

6. Top Gun: Maverick

7. Avatar: The Way of Water

8. Babylon

9. The Whale

10. Elvis

Alt: Armageddon Time

 

Director:

 

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

2. Todd Field, TÁR

3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking

4. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water

5. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Alt: Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

 

Actor:

 

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale

2. Austin Butler, Elvis

3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

4. Bill Nighy, Living

5. Hugh Jackman, The Son

Alt: Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

 

Actress:

 

1. Cate Blanchett, TÁR

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. Margot Robbie, Babylon

4. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway

5. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light

Alt: Danielle Deadwyler, Till

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

4. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

5. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time

Alt: Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

2. Claire Foy, Women Talking

3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking

4. Sadie Sink, The Whale

5. Nina Hoss, TÁR

Alt: Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. The Fabelmans

3. The Banshees of Inisherin

4. TÁR

5. Armageddon Time

Alt: Triangle of Sadness

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. Women Talking

2. The Whale

3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

4. White Noise

5. Living

Alt: Avatar: The Way of Water

 

Cinematography:

 

1. Avatar: The Way of Water

2. TÁR

3. Nope

4. The Fabelmans

5. Empire of Light

Alt: Babylon

 

Editing:

 

1. Top Gun: Maverick

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. Avatar: The Way of Water

4. The Fabelmans

5. Elvis

Alt: TÁR

 

Production Design:

 

1. Babylon

2. Avatar: The Way of Water

3. Elvis

4. Women Talking

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once

Alt: The Fabelmans

 

Costume Design:

 

1. Elvis

2. Babylon

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

4. The Banshees of Inisherin

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once

Alt: The Woman King

 

Makeup and Hairstyling:

 

1. The Whale

2. Babylon

3. Elvis

4. The Batman

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once

Alt: The Woman King

 

Visual Effects:

 

1. Avatar: The Way of Water

2. Nope

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once

4. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio

5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Alt: The Batman

 

Sound:

 

1. Top Gun: Maverick

2. TÁR

3. Avatar: The Way of Water

4. Everything Everywhere All at Once

5. Elvis

Alt: Nope

 

Score: 

 

1. TÁR

2. The Fabelmans

3. The Banshees of Inisherin

4. Bones and All

5. Avatar: The Way of Water

Alt: Women Talking

 

Song:

 

1. Hold My Hand, Top Gun: Maverick

2. Nobody Like U, Turning Red

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

4. I Ain't Worried, Top Gun: Maverick

5. Lyle Lyle Crocodile

Alt: This Is a Life, Everything Everywhere All at Once

 

Animated Feature:

 

1. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio

2. Turning Red

3. Wendell and Wild

4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

5. My Father's Dragon

Alt: Strange World

 

11x:

Everything Everywhere All at Once (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Visual Effects, Sound)

 

8x:

Avatar: The Way of Water (Picture, Director, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Visual Effects, Sound, Score)

The Fabelmans (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Score)

TÁR (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Sound, Score)

 

7x:

Elvis (Picture, Actor, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound)

Women Talking (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress x2, Adapted Screenplay, Production Design)

 

6x:

The Banshees of Inisherin (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Costume Design, Score)

 

5x:

Babylon (Picture, Actress, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling)

Top Gun: Maverick (Picture, Editing, Sound, Song x2)

The Whale (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Makeup and Hairstyling)

 

3x: 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Costume Design, Visual Effects, Song)

 

2x:

Armageddon Time (Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay)

Empire of Light (Actress, Cinematography)

Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio (Visual Effects, Animated Feature)

Living (Actor, Adapted Screenplay)

Nope (Cinematography, Visual Effects)

Turning Red (Song, Animated)

[filmlover]

The Fabelmans is going to be closing the AFI Film Festival which is from November 2-6 so time to guess what will screen there. Got a strong feeling we can expect Spoiler Alert to bow there (opening film, maybe?) given the release date. Possibly Strange World as well since Moana bowed there six years ago. Babylon/I Wanna Dance with Somebody will likely drop around the time they release as late-breakers that skip the festivals completely.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Pre TIFF top 3:

 

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere

The Fabelmans

Glass Onion

TAR

Top Gun

Women Talking

 

For 10th.. I think Whale now. The reviews are so-so with possibility for divisiveness but it seems to be a tearjerker and Fraser's goodwill can elevate it. Especially if he becomes a winner contender. The last Actor winner without a BP nom was Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart in 2009. It's borderline since A24 has a surefire contender but let's see if it places top 3 at TIFF. 

 

Those Venice reviews hurt The Son. It seems like a very dark and heavy film that isn't much of an audience or critic favorite. And it's not winning anything. 

 

I'd still watch out for Triangle of Sadness and Avatar but Avatar 2 might be the most niche, insular of all sequels this year and Triangle of Sadness needs to establish itself as a legit crowdpleaser.

 

The bigger Searchlight contender is obviously the McDonagh film than the Mendes film. Glass Onion is the best chance for Netflix and has an easy path that can alleviate sequel bias. TAR will be the highbrow critic film of the year. Women Talking played well at Telluride and is the biggest female directed contender so far. Elvis was a summer hit, features our possible Best Actor winner, and is the main Warner Bros priority after Olivia Wilde sabotaged Don't Worry Darling.

[filmlover]

Since it starts tonight, here's a reminder of when to expect reactions/reviews for TIFF's big premieres:

 

September 8: The Inspection, Weird: The Al Yankovic Story

September 9: Bros, The Woman King

September 10: Causeway, The Fabelmans, Glass Onion, The Menu

September 11: Chevalier, The Good Nurse, My Policeman

September 12: Devotion

September 13: The Greatest Beer Run Ever

[interiorgatordecorator]

Whats with Brad Pitt producing 3 awards-baity female empowerment (or consequences of lack of female empowerment) movies this year?

not saying theres anything wrong with that, but it was a slight surprise to see that he was a producer for blonde, she said and women talking

a divorce proceeding play?

Edited September 9, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[Joel M]

Not sure why Glass Onion is being a contender all of a sudden just because the Netflix main horses floped. Even if the movie has the same great reception as Knives Out (which is a big ask), is not gonna have the surprising lengthy boxoffice run of the first one and the "original movie saves cinema" narrative. It's gonna be "just" a murder mystery with jokes after all. Even if Netflix throws all their weight behind it, I don't see why the academy will deem it important enough this time.

[filmlover]

Yeah, the first Knives Out was one of the bigger surprise box office smashes of that year and it still missed Best Picture (and everything else but a Screenplay nom). This will have a box office total of $0 (cause Netflix is gonna Netflix) and the Academy has never gone to bat for sequels to movies they didn't fully embrace upon release (even the original Top Gun was nominated for a number of technical categories). More likely than not Netflix will just be sitting out this year, fitting given their recent financial woes.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Knives Out is probably making Golden Globe + WGA + ACE (won't rule out SAG Ensemble, either) and that alone puts it on a path for BP in a 10 year field.

[Ezen Baklattan]

I'm starting to feel like WOMEN TALKING is comfortably my frontrunner so far. Even beyond the raves at the festivals so far, it's got everything a BP contender really needs to break through, from the social commentary to the probable acting support.

 

TAR feels destined to be the critical darling of the season, but I wouldn't be shocked to see it pull a Carol. The rule of ten nominees may help it big time, though, and it could get a lot of singled out passion. I also have Field in Director.

 

BARDO...could maybe still get cinematography? It's hard to completely write off Inarritu when the Academy clearly adores him.

 

Speaking of Netflix and a beloved Mexican director...this might sound crazy but I wouldn't be shocked if GDT's Pinocchio could end up becoming a contender if reception is really strong. Yes, not even Pixar can really make it here nowadays, but...who knows?

[Cmasterclay]

Jordan Ruimy having a total meltdown over Women Talking, lol

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, Ezen Baklattan said:

I'm starting to feel like WOMEN TALKING is comfortably my frontrunner so far. Even beyond the raves at the festivals so far, it's got everything a BP contender really needs to break through, from the social commentary to the probable acting support.

 

TAR feels destined to be the critical darling of the season, but I wouldn't be shocked to see it pull a Carol. The rule of ten nominees may help it big time, though, and it could get a lot of singled out passion. I also have Field in Director.

 

BARDO...could maybe still get cinematography? It's hard to completely write off Inarritu when the Academy clearly adores him.

 

Speaking of Netflix and a beloved Mexican director...this might sound crazy but I wouldn't be shocked if GDT's Pinocchio could end up becoming a contender if reception is really strong. Yes, not even Pixar can really make it here nowadays, but...who knows?

TAR is probably easily in now since contenders are already proving to not have the passion necessary to withstand another couple of months of awards season and TIFF has barely begun. Definitely an unpredictable race so far.

[Ezen Baklattan]

I'm not ready to be heartbroken at the Oscar snubs of a film starring Cate Blanchett directed by a guy named Todd, that's for sure.