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filmlover

Best Picture Predictions: 2022

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Full TIFF lineup announced. The notables to look out for:

 

The Banshees of Inisherin

Bros

Causeway

Chevalier

Devotion

Empire of Light

The Fabelmans

The Good Nurse

The Greatest Beer Run Ever

Knives Out 2

The Menu

The Son

The Whale

The Woman King

Women Talking

Edited by filmlover
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49 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Man, Venice and Toronto are fucking loaded this year.

 

Telluride looking to have Empire of Light, Women Talking as main premiers. Unless they pull a surprise off like She Said or Babylon.

She Said's gotta be going to Telluride if it's not being held for NYFF. 

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I wouldn't be surprised if She Said ends up skipping the fall fests since they know the subject matter alone (being the first major piece of media tackling the Weinstein scandal) is destined to earn it plenty of attention. But more likely it ends up being the closing night movie of NYFF in mid-October.

 

Babylon skipping the festivals makes sense since it doesn't need the early buzz (a period piece about Hollywood directed by Chazelle and starring Robbie and Pitt is guaranteed to generate plenty of publicity and awareness regardless the circumstances of release) and they're likely going to be working on it until the last second Wolf of Wall Street-style to secure an R rating.

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She Said is the type of movie that really needs festival momentum. It would probably flop otherwise theatrically. In fact, it's going to struggle at box office regardless. But early hype and headlines would boost its profile and legitimize it. Give urgency to the narrative

 

Babylon is also picture locked, so no. It won't be worked on until last second. The film is ready to go

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6 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I believe they call videos like this "official confirmation Emancipation is moving to 2022"

 

 

It was initially strongly hinted at the other day with the news Flower Moon is off to 2023.

 

I'm guessing Emancipation is getting a prime spot at AFI in early November.

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21 minutes ago, filmlover said:

She Said bowing at NYFF makes perfect sense since it's about The New York Times. The real Jodi Kantor and Megan Twohey will definitely be present at the premiere.

Sure but again, not the best for awards prospects. The only recent NYFF premieres to actually make BP were auteur pictures like The Irishman, Bridge of Spies, Life of Pi. And even then, we still have misses like Gone Girl, 20th Century Women, Macbeth, Motherless Brooklyn, etc

 

It should be premiering at Telluride. Telluride gives us roughly 3 BP noms per year. It'll good good reviews and publicity from awards pundits but it's going to struggle mightily to breakout. The material is depressing and bleak, not commercial. We all know the ending of it. An extra month of awards buzz, especially at a festival like Telluride which is known for crowdpleasers, would help bring more attention and box office hopes. Spotlight premiered at Venice and then did Telluride. 

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On 7/31/2022 at 2:08 PM, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Sure but again, not the best for awards prospects. The only recent NYFF premieres to actually make BP were auteur pictures like The Irishman, Bridge of Spies, Life of Pi. And even then, we still have misses like Gone Girl, 20th Century Women, Macbeth, Motherless Brooklyn, etc

 

It should be premiering at Telluride. Telluride gives us roughly 3 BP noms per year. It'll good good reviews and publicity from awards pundits but it's going to struggle mightily to breakout. The material is depressing and bleak, not commercial. We all know the ending of it. An extra month of awards buzz, especially at a festival like Telluride which is known for crowdpleasers, would help bring more attention and box office hopes. Spotlight premiered at Venice and then did Telluride. 

Spotlight was an independent project from a studio that found itself in turmoil not long after the movie won Best Picture (and is barely alive today). She Said is a major studio release that tackles arguably the biggest movie industry related scandal of the past couple of decades. There's no need for it to bow months in advance when all eyes in the industry will be on it around the time it comes out regardless - probably goes without saying, given the subject matter, that it has the title for The Most Controversial Contender this year on lock.

 

FWIW I got the trailer before Crawdads over the weekend and of all the previews that were shown (most of them older female-targeted like The Woman King, Don't Worry Darling, etc.), it was the one that piqued the crowd's interest the most (someone dropped an "oh shit" when Weinstein's name was mentioned during the scene where they confront the woman at her house). It won't post massive numbers obviously, but a total similar to Spotlight's $45M seems like a solid target.

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13 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Spotlight was an independent project from a studio that found itself in turmoil not long after the movie won Best Picture (and is barely alive today). She Said is a major studio release that tackles arguably the biggest movie industry related scandal of the past couple of decades. There's no need for it to bow months in advance when all eyes in the industry will be on it around the time it comes out regardless - probably goes without saying, given the subject matter, that it has the title for The Most Controversial Contender this year on lock.

 

FWIW I got the trailer before Crawdads over the weekend and of all the previews that were shown (most of them older female-targeted like The Woman King, Don't Worry Darling, etc.), it was the one that piqued the crowd's interest the most (someone dropped an "oh shit" when Weinstein's name was mentioned during the scene where they confront the woman at her house). It won't post massive numbers obviously, but a total similar to Spotlight's $45M seems like a solid target.

She Said is a Universal film that already has a Spielberg movie as their top priority. 

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