Best Picture Predictions: 2022

[DAJK]

Anyone starting to think that The Woman King could have a legit shot? It's turning into a critical darling, and if it can pull of an audience appeal + box office success, I really think we might be underestimating it.

[Ezen Baklattan]

21 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Anyone starting to think that The Woman King could have a legit shot? It's turning into a critical darling, and if it can pull of an audience appeal + box office success, I really think we might be underestimating it.

It could definitely happen. Honestly, I'm wondering if it has an outside chance at the People's Choice Award at TIFF.

[filmlover]

9 hours ago, DAJK said:

Anyone starting to think that The Woman King could have a legit shot? It's turning into a critical darling, and if it can pull of an audience appeal + box office success, I really think we might be underestimating it.

That and Bros are looking to be some of the bigger winners to emerge out of the festivals so far but I imagine both of their chances of going very far awards-wise will come down to how they fare financially since they're being positioned as commercial plays first and foremost.

 

This year is starting to remind me of 2011 when the crop of nominees were mostly made up of movies that would've easily missed in more competitive years.

[Maggie]

The Fabelmans should take this easily. I think Babylon will have lots of nominations, but likely won't win.

[Eric the Ape]

On 9/14/2022 at 6:37 PM, interiorgatordecorator said:

https://www.metacritic.com/movie/the-greatest-beer-run-ever?ref=hp

 

beer run starts with 25 on mc

 

film critics really are a bunch on pompous asses

and here I was thinking review-bombing was meant solely for us the unwashed masses

every reaction ive seen from a functional human being (so no critics) seems to imply that the movie is ok to good, but here come the so called enlightend ones to tell us why it being "politically cowardly" means its a 1/5

Okay.

[filmlover]

I highly doubt The Greatest Beer Run Ever scoring a red on MC as a sign of cranky critics or whatever when the project sounded floppy the whole time (how do you go from Viggo and Mahershala as your leads to...Zac Efron?). Luckily it's not even close to alone in terms of Oscar hopefuls that haven't connected this year (Empire of Light is officially Rotten on RT while The Son is now right on the line at 60% btw).

[lorddemaxus]

Doubt the film is very good, but I do feel like this is critics trying to overcorrect for Green Book lol.

[Jake Gittes]

What I've read just makes it sound like Green Book 2.0, except instead of Ignorant White Guy Learns Racism Is Bad it's Ignorant White Guy Learns War Is Bad.

[filmlover]

3 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Doubt the film is very good, but I do feel like this is critics trying to overcorrect for Green Book lol.

I mean, it's not like Green Book was some universally acclaimed masterpiece to begin with (77% on RT, 69 on MC). Just goes to show that that movie was lucky to have the cast it did because I don't want to imagine what less talented actors would've done with such "been there, done that" material (no offense to Efron - who I think is more talented than a filmography in which the trash far outweighs the treasure and a reputation due to said bad luck would indicate - but he's not a seasoned pro who can elevate anything like Mortensen or Ali can).

[kayumanggi]

I think THE FABELMANS is the one to beat this year.

[WrathOfHan]

Post TIFF:

 

1. The Fabelmans

2. The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once

4. TÁR

5. Top Gun: Maverick

6. Avatar: The Way of Water

7. Women Talking

8. Elvis

9. Babylon

10. The Woman King

Alt: Decision to Leave

 

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

2. Todd Field, TÁR

3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

4. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave

5. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water

Alt: Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

 

Actor:

 

1. Austin Butler, Elvis

2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Brendan Fraser, The Whale

4. Bill Nighy, Living

5. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

Alt: Timothée Chalamet, Bones and All

 

 

Actress:

 

1. Cate Blanchett, TÁR

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till

4. Viola Davis, The Woman King

5. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway

Alt: Margot Robbie, Babylon

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans

4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

5. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

Alt: Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

2. Claire Foy, Women Talking

3. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

4. Sadie Sink, The Whale

5. Nina Hoss, TÁR

Alt: Jessie Buckley, Women Talking

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. The Banshees of Inisherin

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. The Fabelmans

4. TÁR

5. Babylon

Alt: The Menu

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. Women Talking

2. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

3. Bones and All

4. Avatar: The Way of Water

5. Elvis

Alt: White Noise

 

 

 

 

[Ozymandias]

I was really hoping Killers of the Flower Moon, The Killer, and Napoleon would be out later this year but now it looks like none of those are happening.

 

Oh well it will be entertaining when Top Gun and Avatar get nominated in an attempt to avoid another further slide into culturally irrelevancy this year.

[Maggie]

13 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

 

 

Oh well it will be entertaining when Top Gun and Avatar get nominated in an attempt to avoid another further slide into culturally irrelevancy this year.

Considering the reviews of movies that were sure Oscar bets this year, i wouldn't say nominating TG2 and Avatar (if/when it delivers) is gonna be only for the Oscars not to lose relevancy. TG2 was a genuinely  good movie. Anyway, i wouldn't be surprised if the Academy ignores TG2. It's a thing they'd do, just like they ignored Spidey last year

[Ezen Baklattan]

Honestly, if EEAAO 

5 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Post TIFF:

 

1. The Fabelmans

2. The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once

4. TÁR

5. Top Gun: Maverick

6. Avatar: The Way of Water

7. Women Talking

8. Elvis

9. Babylon

10. The Woman King

Alt: Decision to Leave

 

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

2. Todd Field, TÁR

3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

4. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave

5. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water

Alt: Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

 

Actor:

 

1. Austin Butler, Elvis

2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Brendan Fraser, The Whale

4. Bill Nighy, Living

5. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

Alt: Timothée Chalamet, Bones and All

 

 

Actress:

 

1. Cate Blanchett, TÁR

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till

4. Viola Davis, The Woman King

5. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway

Alt: Margot Robbie, Babylon

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans

4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

5. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

Alt: Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

2. Claire Foy, Women Talking

3. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

4. Sadie Sink, The Whale

5. Nina Hoss, TÁR

Alt: Jessie Buckley, Women Talking

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. The Banshees of Inisherin

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. The Fabelmans

4. TÁR

5. Babylon

Alt: The Menu

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. Women Talking

2. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

3. Bones and All

4. Avatar: The Way of Water

5. Elvis

Alt: White Noise

 

 

 

 

If EEAAO makes it into Picture and Screenplay, I'd be really surprised if it missed Director. It's a film that rides on style and depends on vivid direction.

[filmlover]

6 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

2. Claire Foy, Women Talking

3. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

4. Sadie Sink, The Whale

5. Nina Hoss, TÁR

Alt: Jessie Buckley, Women Talking

 

 

Sadie Sink isn't happening for that divisive performance with no buzz. If anyone is going to receive a coattail nomination for The Whale, it'll be Hong Chau (who is getting solid ink for the movie and also is considered a highlight in The Menu so she's having a good year).

 

Meanwhile, ceremony news.

 

 

Oscars: Glenn Weiss and Ricky Kirshner Announced as 95th Oscars Producers at All-Member Academy Meeting https://t.co/0oaYt38AhP

— The Hollywood Reporter (@THR) September 17, 2022

[cannastop]

 

[filmlover]

Best Picture has usually ended up going to an underdog in recent years but this is shaping up to be the first year in a while where it's looking like nothing will have the passion necessary to take down the frontrunner since very few movies have emerged from the festivals as solid contenders (Banshees, TAR, and Women Talking are the only other movies to have a strong consensus to them that bowed in recent weeks). Maybe everything that hasn't been seen yet will deliver a surprise but as of now it seems more likely than not that Spielberg is coming for his second Best Picture win.

 

The producers are also apparently looking to explore streaming options this year instead of trying to bring back 40 million viewers. Also good to see that they're looking to make the show about the nominees again because nobody's here for the lame stabs at social media brownie points like the hosts complaining about how long The Power of the Dog was.

 

Oscars Show Needs To Be “Reinvigorated”, Academy Admits – Deadline

 

 

Quote

 

• Hiring producing teams who are accountable to the Academy and creating a dedicated team within the Academy solely focused on the Awards
• Determining how to best honor all craft areas on air
• Focusing on a love and reverence for film
• Creating an emotional investment in the nominees
• Exploring extensions of the show on streaming
• Continuing the theatrical requirement for eligibility
• Making the red carpet an event
• Continuing to prioritize sustainability, access, inclusion, and representation

 

[filmlover]

The Fabelmans wins People's Choice Award at TIFF with Women Talking in second place and third going to Knives Out.

[Cmasterclay]

The Fablemans sounds like such a chore - both another coming-of-age and a "magic of cinema" movie?? That said, after doubting Steven prior to West Side Story, I am never going to doubt him again, so I'll be there opening weekend of course.

[Maggie]

11 hours ago, cannastop said:

 

Yeah, The Fabelmans will be hard to beat. Only Babylon can challenge Fabelmans, but i don't think it will beat Spielberg